Who should be considered the US Open Fave - Rafa or Novak?

RaulRamirez

RaulRamirez

Legend
If Fed is still the #3 favorite (not sure who's 4th...Delpo? Stan? Tsitsipas?), is there a better case for Nadal or Djokovic as the #1 favorite?

Rafa - #1 in the Rankings, #1 in the Race
Defending Champion
Has won USO 3 times (4 finals)
Revenge Factor if he faces Djokovic

Novak - #6 in the Rankings, #3 in the Race
Won last major played (Wimbledon)
Has won USO 2 times (7 finals)
Won his most recent match-ups with Nadal and Federer
 
Novak just Won Cincy and beat all of Raonic, Dimitrov, Cilic and Federer to do it. He may have slipped up at the Roger's Cup but the guy he lost to go all the way to the finals.

Rafa is the defending Champ and did win the Rogers Cup, although his draw was relatively easy. Ok he had Cilic and Wawa but Tsitsipas was the real giant killer of the Rogers cup.

I'd probably say Novak but it really doesn't matter.
 
RaulRamirez said:
If Fed is still the #3 favorite (not sure who's 4th...Delpo? Stan? Tsitsipas?), is there a better case for Nadal or Djokovic as the #1 favorite?

Rafa - #1 in the Rankings, #1 in the Race
Defending Champion
Has won USO 3 times (4 finals)
Revenge Factor if he faces Djokovic

Novak - #6 in the Rankings, #3 in the Race
Won last major played (Wimbledon)
Has won USO 2 times (7 finals)
Won his most recent match-ups with Nadal and Federer
Click to expand...
Djokovic and RF are the only contenders for the title, Rafa can only go as far as the draw doesn't have him play one of those two meaning he can reach the finale if Novak isn't in his half. I am convinced Rafa will never again beat Federer (partly because RF isn't playing clay anymore), because this veteran Nadal is scared of Federer unlike the young Nadal who was fearless, and we know that Novak has his number whenever Djokovic is at his best. That USO 2013 defeat to Rafa was very close. Djokovic was up 4-1 in the third set, then suddenly allowed Rafa to come back. That won't ever happen again.

The fact Nadal is 2-1 vs Djokovic at the USO is a misleading stat.

Rafa fans should completely forget about a fourth USO title, won't happen.
 
UnderratedSlam said:
Djokovic and RF are the only contenders for the title, Rafa can only go as far as the draw doesn't have him play one of those two meaning he can reach the finale if Novak isn't in his half. I am convinced Rafa will never again beat Federer (partly because RF isn't playing clay anymore), because this veteran Nadal is scared of Federer unlike the young Nadal who was fearless, and we know that Novak has his number whenever Djokovic is at his best. That USO 2013 defeat to Rafa was very close. Djokovic was up 4-1 in the third set, then suddenly allowed Rafa to come back. That won't ever happen again.

The fact Nadal is 2-1 vs Djokovic at the USO is a misleading stat.

Rafa fans should completely forget about a fourth USO title, won't happen.
Click to expand...

Tell me more.

:D
 
51/49 Nadal

They played a near identical Toronto/Cincy warm-up. Neither player looked good all week, and should've been taken out. Then they reached the final against a tired and overwhelmed opponent, and suddenly they raised their levels for the easiest match they had all week.

But I think Rafa's form vs Tsitsipas was just slightly more impressive than Novak's. And keeping in mind that Novak barely escaped Rafa on indoor grass, I'm going to give the #1 player and defending champion the slight edge on the slower USO surface.
 
I feel like Novak is more vulnerable, hence is more likely to have an upset than Rafa is.
But if the two of them meet each other then Novak is the favourite.
 
UnderratedSlam said:
Djokovic and RF are the only contenders for the title, Rafa can only go as far as the draw doesn't have him play one of those two meaning he can reach the finale if Novak isn't in his half. I am convinced Rafa will never again beat Federer (partly because RF isn't playing clay anymore), because this veteran Nadal is scared of Federer unlike the young Nadal who was fearless, and we know that Novak has his number whenever Djokovic is at his best. That USO 2013 defeat to Rafa was very close. Djokovic was up 4-1 in the third set, then suddenly allowed Rafa to come back. That won't ever happen again.

The fact Nadal is 2-1 vs Djokovic at the USO is a misleading stat.

Rafa fans should completely forget about a fourth USO title, won't happen.
Click to expand...

Fed's form has been crap recently, he's not the player he was last year
 
The last time Nadal beat Djokovic off of clay was exactly five years ago at the USO2013.

This can be seen as a good thing - Nadal is comfortable with the Djokovic match up on Ashe and can draw on the success of his last meeting here

Or

This can be seen as a bad thing - Nadal has been beaten in every non-clay match over the past five years by Djokovic, and could negatively effect his game.
 
Right now, I pick Rafa as the favorite. The USO is a slow hard court. This will neutralize Djoker's advantage with his serves. I don't think that Djoker can grind with Rafa right now. I see Rafa taking out Djoker in 4 tough sets. Of course, on the fast courts, I'd give Djoker a big advantage.

If the two meet, I'll pull for Djokovic. But I think that Rafa is the favorite. However, a lot can happen with the wrong draw.
 
Towser83 said:
Fed's form has been crap recently, he's not the player he was last year
Click to expand...
That's a weird conclusion.

Look at his record this year. He's been reaching big finales, won a slam. Had he converted the MP in Wimbledon he would have won it.

RF has a whole week to prepare. Then another week to improve until the QF stage. He'll get better and do great.

He lost the FINALE in Cincinnati, not R32. He lost to the best player of this era, not to Stepanek.
 
One can not say who is a lone favorite. Both players shares position favorite. They are co-favorites.
Djokovic is the King of Hard, but the USO does not suit him as much as AO. Nadal, on the contrary, is better in New York than in Melbourne. In FM, their forces are balanced.
 
UnderratedSlam said:
That's a weird conclusion.

Look at his record this year. He's been reaching big finales, won a slam. Had he converted the MP in Wimbledon he would have won it.

RF has a whole week to prepare. Then another week to improve until the QF stage. He'll get better and do great.

He lost the FINALE in Cincinnati, not R32. He lost to the best player of this era, not to Stepanek.
Click to expand...

Lol
 
UnderratedSlam said:
That's a weird conclusion.

Look at his record this year. He's been reaching big finales, won a slam. Had he converted the MP in Wimbledon he would have won it.

RF has a whole week to prepare. Then another week to improve until the QF stage. He'll get better and do great.

He lost the FINALE in Cincinnati, not R32. He lost to the best player of this era, not to Stepanek.
Click to expand...


Look at the performances...

He won AO which was good, but really not the same level as 2017 and he had a fairly easy draw.

IW he made the final but blew match points vs Delpo. Miami he lost early to Kokk

Stuttgart he won but lost Halle to Coric of all people. Bizarre...

HAD he converted match point at Wimbledon? But the key thing is he didn't. He was 2 sets to 0 up agaisnt a player he'd never lost a set to and had match points and lost. Lost after having match points again! And you have no way of knowing he'd have won Wimbledon if he'd won that match.

Final of Cincy but it's the way he played in the final, lacking in any rhythm, looking shaky. His form has not been there this year


Oh and why can't Nadal win it then? Lost in 5 in Australia to Cilic who made the final and took fed to 5.. quarterfinal like Fed at Wimbledon, and cilic is a better player. Won 2 clay masters and RG. Lost in 5 at Wimbledon to the eventual winner (went further here than Fed) then went to Canada and won that. His results are better than Fed's. Have a reality check.
 
Why do people think Nadal would beat Djokovic if they met in the final? Nadal beat a bunch of nobodies to win his HC M1000. Novak beat the best. Rude awakening for Nadal if they do in fact make it to the finals.
 
I just look forward to a final between Novak and Nadal. Will be happy no matter who wins.
That they are both healthy and compete at top level is the most important to me.
 
50/50

But if push comes to shove, I pick Nadal because the very slow court will benefit him.
 
UnderratedSlam said:
That's a weird conclusion.

Look at his record this year. He's been reaching big finales, won a slam. Had he converted the MP in Wimbledon he would have won it.

RF has a whole week to prepare. Then another week to improve until the QF stage. He'll get better and do great.

He lost the FINALE in Cincinnati, not R32. He lost to the best player of this era, not to Stepanek.
Click to expand...

In your opinion, up until this point in the season, did Fed play better in 2017 or this year?
 
RaulRamirez said:
If Fed is still the #3 favorite (not sure who's 4th...Delpo? Stan? Tsitsipas?), is there a better case for Nadal or Djokovic as the #1 favorite?

Rafa - #1 in the Rankings, #1 in the Race
Defending Champion
Has won USO 3 times (4 finals)
Revenge Factor if he faces Djokovic

Novak - #6 in the Rankings, #3 in the Race
Won last major played (Wimbledon)
Has won USO 2 times (7 finals)
Won his most recent match-ups with Nadal and Federer
Click to expand...

Not sure which is favorite - as others have said, it's close. Zverev is the clear fourth favorite, as a glance at the bookmakers' odds will confirm.
 
Nadal clear fav in my book. Not defending a title off clay is an issue but that is not enough to make him a non fav. Defending us open champ. Motivated after wimbledon and canada too.
 
Towser83 said:
Look at the performances...

He won AO which was good, but really not the same level as 2017 and he had a fairly easy draw.

IW he made the final but blew match points vs Delpo. Miami he lost early to Kokk

Stuttgart he won but lost Halle to Coric of all people. Bizarre...

HAD he converted match point at Wimbledon? But the key thing is he didn't. He was 2 sets to 0 up agaisnt a player he'd never lost a set to and had match points and lost. Lost after having match points again! And you have no way of knowing he'd have won Wimbledon if he'd won that match.

Final of Cincy but it's the way he played in the final, lacking in any rhythm, looking shaky. His form has not been there this year


Oh and why can't Nadal win it then? Lost in 5 in Australia to Cilic who made the final and took fed to 5.. quarterfinal like Fed at Wimbledon, and cilic is a better player. Won 2 clay masters and RG. Lost in 5 at Wimbledon to the eventual winner (went further here than Fed) then went to Canada and won that. His results are better than Fed's. Have a reality check.
Click to expand...
Well, Nadal didn't "lose" to Cilic. Nadal was injured. I have no idea why some people never believe Rafa's injuries. So he exists QFs for fun, right?

I find it fascinating that some RF fans think so highly of several of RF's Weak Era slam wins (2003 Wimbledon, 2006 AO and so on) yet suddenly, somehow, the 2018 AO is "not that impressive, he had an easy draw". Newsflash: in the weak era most draws he had were easy because it was the weak era.

When a player doesn't convert a match point in a VERY close match, it's almost as if he won it - from the standpoint of FORM. We are talking about FORM, not results. His form is very good throughout the year, and yes, he lost in Halle, but it's not the first time he's lost in Halle. He is second in the race, so he must be doing everything wrong, is the logic here.
 
FHtennisman said:
In your opinion, up until this point in the season, did Fed play better in 2017 or this year?
Click to expand...
Obviously, he had a better season in 2017 because he won two slams and a few M1000. But that doesn't mean he was much better last year. Let's recall that when Djokovic was dominating, RF could not win a slam, but as soon as Novak was injured and unmotivated and losing, RF starts winning slams again.

RF found an opening at the top, a vacuum left by Novak and he took the opportunity. Rafa did too, by winning the USO.
 
RaulRamirez said:
If Fed is still the #3 favorite (not sure who's 4th...Delpo? Stan? Tsitsipas?), is there a better case for Nadal or Djokovic as the #1 favorite?

Rafa - #1 in the Rankings, #1 in the Race
Defending Champion
Has won USO 3 times (4 finals)
Revenge Factor if he faces Djokovic

Novak - #6 in the Rankings, #3 in the Race
Won last major played (Wimbledon)
Has won USO 2 times (7 finals)
Won his most recent match-ups with Nadal and Federer
Click to expand...
It depends on the draw!
 
I thought Federer’s the king of hard courts 11-8, no?

Enceladus said:
One can not say who is a lone favorite. Both players shares position favorite. They are co-favorites.
Djokovic is the King of Hard, but the USO does not suit him as much as AO. Nadal, on the contrary, is better in New York than in Melbourne. In FM, their forces are balanced.
Click to expand...
 
Will answer with bandnames for variety, too many equal threads at the moment:

Nadal Surf > DEVOvic > > > > > > > Fed Zeppelin > Red Hot Cilic Peppers > Tower of Power > Stan Morrison > > > Zed Barret
 
EdbergLetUs said:
Why do people think Nadal would beat Djokovic if they met in the final? Nadal beat a bunch of nobodies to win his HC M1000. Novak beat the best. Rude awakening for Nadal if they do in fact make it to the finals.
Click to expand...

Yeah cos Raonic and Dimitrov are on fire these days, not, yet they gave Novak a tough match :rolleyes::rolleyes:
Stop going by names you've heard of and think of whos actually playing well.
Both Nadal and Djokovic beat Cilic. Nadal beat Wawrinka and then Djokovic's conqueror Tsitsipas . Not the toughest of draws but neither was Cinci for Djokovic.
Federer isn't even in form , so who did Djokovic face who was ever going to be a challenge? :rolleyes:
He was dropping sets to almost everyone he played.
 
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