Lets look at the Grand Slam tournaments that were negatively affected by Djokovic for the big 2, ie Federer and Nadal.
Nadal lost to Djokovic 4 times at GS.
Federer lost to Djokovic 9 times at GS.
Clearly Federer seems to be damaged more.
However don't stop here and look further and deeper. How likely would they really won the tournament without Djokovic? How the timeline would be affected? What achievements they could get?
I will go tournament by tournament in the chronological order and try to figure it out.
I tried to be as harsh to Fed and as charitable to Nadal as possible. Yet even so when we simply sum their chances:
Federer: 40 + 19 + 45,5 + 32 + 4 + 70 + 70 + 75 + 42 = 397,5 %, therefore about 4 slams
Nadal: 75 + 60 + 70 + 21 = 226 %, therefore probably 2, possibly 3 slams. (Not even counting possible loss of USO 2010.)
Most Nadal could have get is 4 slams with double career slam, Nadal slam and 4 consecutive multislam years. Probably he would get something like 2 or 3 slams, maybe double career slam and at least 2 consecutive multislam year. After RG 2012 he might have as much as 13 slams, just three shy of Fed then total 16.
Most Fed could have as much as 9 slams, in 8 of them with solid chance. Probably would win at least four of them. After RG 2012 he might have as much as 21 slams, probably would have about 18 (5 more than most optimistic possibility for Rafa). Almost certainly would have his series of 19 consecutive slam finals. Now he would be leader in Wimbledon (with probably 9 or 10 titles), AO (with probably 7 or 8 titles) and USO (with probably 6 or 7 titles), therefore he would be the man with most titles in 4 out of 5 most important tennis tournaments.
Well, for me it is clear. Even when I was harder to Fed he still lost considerably more because of Djokovic. Even before 2014 Fed lost almost as much as Nadal and after that it is clearly Federer.
What is your oppinion? Vote and discuss.
Nadal lost to Djokovic 4 times at GS.
Federer lost to Djokovic 9 times at GS.
Clearly Federer seems to be damaged more.
However don't stop here and look further and deeper. How likely would they really won the tournament without Djokovic? How the timeline would be affected? What achievements they could get?
I will go tournament by tournament in the chronological order and try to figure it out.
1) Federer (1) lost in SF AO 2008
Probable SF opponents: Hewitt or Ferrer. Given the nature of matchup between them and Federer, even in 2008 he would be heavily favourited. At least 80 % that he win his SF and goes to final.
F opponent: Tsonga. Great form but first major final, Fed is still 3 times AO winner and won all 10 of his hardcourt/grasscourt GS finals... Lets say 50 %.
40 % chance of winning this major. That would give Federer at least another multislam year (6 in row), most probably (80 %) would have streak of 19 GS finals in row (beyond mindblowing). More stretched teory would be it could also give him enough confidence to win W 2008 (not probably).
2) Federer (2) lost in SF USO 2010
Probable SF opponents: Monfils or Fish. Heavy favourite against both, at least 75 %.
F opponent: Nadal in great form after winning last 2 slams. Yet still his first USO final. Nadal is favourite but cannot go lower than 25 % for Fed.
19 % chance of winning another slam and moreover Nadal losing one. That would give Fed another multislam year (maybe even 7th in row) and Fed would be best ever at USO.
3) Federer (3) lost in SF AO 2011
Probable SF opponent: Berdych. Could play against Fed at that time but Fed still would be favourite. At least 70 % for Fed.
F opponent: Murray. Had great success against Fed but mainly in BO3. Fed still favourite. 65 %.
45,5 % chance of winning another slam. Would win GS in ten consecutive years (probably the joint most with Nadal).
4) Nadal (1) lost in F Wimbledon 2011
Probable F opponent: Tsonga. Great form, just defeated Nadal in Queens. At most 75 % for Rafa.
75 % chance of winning another slam. Would have two consecutive multislam years, 3rd channel slam.
5) Federer (4) lost in SF USO 2011.
Probable SF opponents: Tipsa, Dolgo, maybe old Davy. Fed would be heavily favourite against any of them. 80 %.
F opponent: Nadal in good form. Still, Feds form this year was better than last one. Cannot go under 40 % for Fed.
32 % chance of getting another slam. Would win GS in ten consecutive years (probably the joint most with Nadal), maybe have another multislam year (with AO 2011), possible even 8th consecutive (with AO 08, 11 and UO 10).
6) Nadal (2) F USO 2011
Probable F opponent: Federer. As stated above cannot go for more than 60 % for Nadal.
60 % chance of winning another slam. Would have two consecutive multislam years, maybe even two consecutive 3 slams year (with W 2011).
7) Nadal (3) F AO 2012
Probable F opponent: Murray. Did not win slam yet but played great tournament. Nadal still would be favourite but cannot go for more than 70 % for him.
70 % chance of winning another slam. That would give him double career slam (either with USO 2010 or later) and another multislam year, possibly 4 of them in row (with USO or W 2011), possibly Nadal slam (with USO and W 2011).
8) Federer (5) SF FO 2012
Probable SF opponent: Tsonga. Federer did not play great that tournament, Tsonga could be favourite here. Fed still at least 40 %.
F opponent: Nadal, big favourite yet Fed at least 10 %.
4 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him double career slam.
9) Federer (6) F Wimbledon 2014
Probable F opponent: Dimitrov or Cilic, possibly Tsonga. Dima in great form but not a good matchup against Fed, similar for Cilic. Federer would be big favourite against any of them. At least 70 % for Fed.
70 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him at least 12 years with at least 1 slam, possibly 13 (with AO or USO 2011).
10) Nadal (4) QF RG 2015
Probable QF opponent: Gasquet. Even in 2015 form Nadal would be favourite but cannot give him more than 70 %, not at that year form.
SF opponent: Murray. Just defeated him in Madrid. Yet this is RG, Nadal should still be favourite but at most 60 % for him.
F opponent: Wawrinka. In great form, defeated him in their last slam match as well last clay match in condition probably most similar to RG. But still, it is RG, so I say 50 % for Rafa.
21 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him 11 RG titles, 11 consecutive years with at least 1 slam.
11) Federer (7) F Wimbledon 2015
Probable F opponent: Gasquet or Cilic. At Wimbledon Fed should defeat both easily. At least 70 % for him.
70 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him at least 12 years with at least 1 slam, possibly 14 (with AO or USO 2011 and Wimbl 2014), as well as possibly his own "la decima" (with W 2014).
12) Federer (8) F USO 2015
Probable F opponent: Cilic. In reality got totally destroyed by Novak, Fed should do the same. At least 75 % for Fed.
75 % chance of winning another slam. Would make him all time USO leader with at least 6 titles (possible 7 or 8), possibly give him another multislam year (with W 2015).
13) Federer (9) SF AO 16
Probable SF opponent: Nishi. At least 70 % for Fed.
F opponent: Murray. Not his greatest form, on 5 match losing streak with Fed. At least 60 % for Fed.
42 % chance of winning another slam.
Probable SF opponents: Hewitt or Ferrer. Given the nature of matchup between them and Federer, even in 2008 he would be heavily favourited. At least 80 % that he win his SF and goes to final.
F opponent: Tsonga. Great form but first major final, Fed is still 3 times AO winner and won all 10 of his hardcourt/grasscourt GS finals... Lets say 50 %.
40 % chance of winning this major. That would give Federer at least another multislam year (6 in row), most probably (80 %) would have streak of 19 GS finals in row (beyond mindblowing). More stretched teory would be it could also give him enough confidence to win W 2008 (not probably).
2) Federer (2) lost in SF USO 2010
Probable SF opponents: Monfils or Fish. Heavy favourite against both, at least 75 %.
F opponent: Nadal in great form after winning last 2 slams. Yet still his first USO final. Nadal is favourite but cannot go lower than 25 % for Fed.
19 % chance of winning another slam and moreover Nadal losing one. That would give Fed another multislam year (maybe even 7th in row) and Fed would be best ever at USO.
3) Federer (3) lost in SF AO 2011
Probable SF opponent: Berdych. Could play against Fed at that time but Fed still would be favourite. At least 70 % for Fed.
F opponent: Murray. Had great success against Fed but mainly in BO3. Fed still favourite. 65 %.
45,5 % chance of winning another slam. Would win GS in ten consecutive years (probably the joint most with Nadal).
4) Nadal (1) lost in F Wimbledon 2011
Probable F opponent: Tsonga. Great form, just defeated Nadal in Queens. At most 75 % for Rafa.
75 % chance of winning another slam. Would have two consecutive multislam years, 3rd channel slam.
5) Federer (4) lost in SF USO 2011.
Probable SF opponents: Tipsa, Dolgo, maybe old Davy. Fed would be heavily favourite against any of them. 80 %.
F opponent: Nadal in good form. Still, Feds form this year was better than last one. Cannot go under 40 % for Fed.
32 % chance of getting another slam. Would win GS in ten consecutive years (probably the joint most with Nadal), maybe have another multislam year (with AO 2011), possible even 8th consecutive (with AO 08, 11 and UO 10).
6) Nadal (2) F USO 2011
Probable F opponent: Federer. As stated above cannot go for more than 60 % for Nadal.
60 % chance of winning another slam. Would have two consecutive multislam years, maybe even two consecutive 3 slams year (with W 2011).
7) Nadal (3) F AO 2012
Probable F opponent: Murray. Did not win slam yet but played great tournament. Nadal still would be favourite but cannot go for more than 70 % for him.
70 % chance of winning another slam. That would give him double career slam (either with USO 2010 or later) and another multislam year, possibly 4 of them in row (with USO or W 2011), possibly Nadal slam (with USO and W 2011).
8) Federer (5) SF FO 2012
Probable SF opponent: Tsonga. Federer did not play great that tournament, Tsonga could be favourite here. Fed still at least 40 %.
F opponent: Nadal, big favourite yet Fed at least 10 %.
4 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him double career slam.
9) Federer (6) F Wimbledon 2014
Probable F opponent: Dimitrov or Cilic, possibly Tsonga. Dima in great form but not a good matchup against Fed, similar for Cilic. Federer would be big favourite against any of them. At least 70 % for Fed.
70 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him at least 12 years with at least 1 slam, possibly 13 (with AO or USO 2011).
10) Nadal (4) QF RG 2015
Probable QF opponent: Gasquet. Even in 2015 form Nadal would be favourite but cannot give him more than 70 %, not at that year form.
SF opponent: Murray. Just defeated him in Madrid. Yet this is RG, Nadal should still be favourite but at most 60 % for him.
F opponent: Wawrinka. In great form, defeated him in their last slam match as well last clay match in condition probably most similar to RG. But still, it is RG, so I say 50 % for Rafa.
21 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him 11 RG titles, 11 consecutive years with at least 1 slam.
11) Federer (7) F Wimbledon 2015
Probable F opponent: Gasquet or Cilic. At Wimbledon Fed should defeat both easily. At least 70 % for him.
70 % chance of winning another slam. Would give him at least 12 years with at least 1 slam, possibly 14 (with AO or USO 2011 and Wimbl 2014), as well as possibly his own "la decima" (with W 2014).
12) Federer (8) F USO 2015
Probable F opponent: Cilic. In reality got totally destroyed by Novak, Fed should do the same. At least 75 % for Fed.
75 % chance of winning another slam. Would make him all time USO leader with at least 6 titles (possible 7 or 8), possibly give him another multislam year (with W 2015).
13) Federer (9) SF AO 16
Probable SF opponent: Nishi. At least 70 % for Fed.
F opponent: Murray. Not his greatest form, on 5 match losing streak with Fed. At least 60 % for Fed.
42 % chance of winning another slam.
I tried to be as harsh to Fed and as charitable to Nadal as possible. Yet even so when we simply sum their chances:
Federer: 40 + 19 + 45,5 + 32 + 4 + 70 + 70 + 75 + 42 = 397,5 %, therefore about 4 slams
Nadal: 75 + 60 + 70 + 21 = 226 %, therefore probably 2, possibly 3 slams. (Not even counting possible loss of USO 2010.)
Most Nadal could have get is 4 slams with double career slam, Nadal slam and 4 consecutive multislam years. Probably he would get something like 2 or 3 slams, maybe double career slam and at least 2 consecutive multislam year. After RG 2012 he might have as much as 13 slams, just three shy of Fed then total 16.
Most Fed could have as much as 9 slams, in 8 of them with solid chance. Probably would win at least four of them. After RG 2012 he might have as much as 21 slams, probably would have about 18 (5 more than most optimistic possibility for Rafa). Almost certainly would have his series of 19 consecutive slam finals. Now he would be leader in Wimbledon (with probably 9 or 10 titles), AO (with probably 7 or 8 titles) and USO (with probably 6 or 7 titles), therefore he would be the man with most titles in 4 out of 5 most important tennis tournaments.
Well, for me it is clear. Even when I was harder to Fed he still lost considerably more because of Djokovic. Even before 2014 Fed lost almost as much as Nadal and after that it is clearly Federer.
What is your oppinion? Vote and discuss.