Who was the better Tennis player at age 22 - Nadal or Alcaraz?
- Thread starter Hyde
- Start date
Mustard
Bionic Poster
That's correct. See the link below for Federer's 2006 match results:
Roger Federer | Player Activity | ATP Tour | Tennis
Official tennis match records of Roger Federer including results, opponents, match stats. Filter by year and tournament.
www.atptour.com
Mustard
Bionic Poster
On grass, 2008 Federer won Halle without losing a set, and reached the Wimbledon final without losing a set. Federer's last match loss on grass had been at 2002 Wimbledon, against Ancic.
Jav
Rookie
I swear when Carlitos gets a "clean level" of these at his physical prime, be it next year or at age 26 and walks through the competition at Wimbledon as in this USO 25 (probably top 5 more dominant in the OE), people will act surprised just because he only did ocasionally so prior age 22, like at the 24 W Final, while struggling a bit more through the rest of the tournament (which could also be valued as mental fortitude; btw this is the reason why he playes better in the later stages, which is why he’s always underestimated and also the reason the moment he dominates by playstyle / tactics he’s borderline unbeatable).
"Couldn’t see that coming” like when I read through here he got the worse FH and movement, probably his two biggest assets out of the 4 as late as last year. That he was somehow finished mentally after last Olympics. Like we didn't see what they tried elevating “prime Murray” above Sincaraz current level and status. Like when they prognosticated him less slams not only than Sampras, but Agassi… He’s as Novak there, and Nadal to an extent: always proving haters wrong as time, hard work and talent are inevitable.
Yes, of course he does. Context is important. 35 vs barely 20 isn’t a gargantuan age advantage back in 2023. Carlitos got cramps as Sinner recently, he was on the rise after 1st set yet continued to play, he could have very well retired in the 3rd. 2 out of these Novak won by TBs in very close sets, both in the Olympics with no break whatsoever. Only other clay game Carlitos got him in Madrid 22’, just at age 18 fgs.
Let me ask you first: where was Novak at 22?
How many RG more he got while having played +16 seasons as professional?
Which season did Novak perform and accomplished half as much as Carlitos in this clay season? And don’t make it like Rafa was 100% in seasons like 2015-16 to name just two, he was a shadow of his prime some years cause injuries.
"Couldn’t see that coming” like when I read through here he got the worse FH and movement, probably his two biggest assets out of the 4 as late as last year. That he was somehow finished mentally after last Olympics. Like we didn't see what they tried elevating “prime Murray” above Sincaraz current level and status. Like when they prognosticated him less slams not only than Sampras, but Agassi… He’s as Novak there, and Nadal to an extent: always proving haters wrong as time, hard work and talent are inevitable.
Yes, of course he does. Context is important. 35 vs barely 20 isn’t a gargantuan age advantage back in 2023. Carlitos got cramps as Sinner recently, he was on the rise after 1st set yet continued to play, he could have very well retired in the 3rd. 2 out of these Novak won by TBs in very close sets, both in the Olympics with no break whatsoever. Only other clay game Carlitos got him in Madrid 22’, just at age 18 fgs.
Let me ask you first: where was Novak at 22?
How many RG more he got while having played +16 seasons as professional?
Which season did Novak perform and accomplished half as much as Carlitos in this clay season? And don’t make it like Rafa was 100% in seasons like 2015-16 to name just two, he was a shadow of his prime some years cause injuries.
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Jav
Rookie
I’m Spaniard dude, I as a child have followed Nadal since his early breakthrough. Big fan of him. I know his strengths, I know how he plays, I know his records and invincibility aura on clay / RG.
It is fanboy behavior since you’re forgetting about the rival in front. You got a conclusion established in advance: Nadal wins 10/10 on clay against anybody. That’s probably true for 99’9999999% of the planet’s population, including 99% of top 100 players of any given era.
The Beckers, Borgs, Novaks, Carlitos though. Even if clear favorite as well. It’s not.
You’re free to think otherwise, but contrary to you I know betting odds and how chances work. As well as Carlitos strengths, of course.
He’s 6/7 in GS finals. Before you mention “weak era”, he faced prime Sinner + Oldovic (one of which in his last great run, 2023, preventing him from CYGS) in 5 of those (and several others in previous rounds). He played probably the best, most physically and mentally demanding RG final in history (bar when Nadal steamrolled, of course).
He’s 25-3 in RG himself, historically, including f.e. his 2021 season, when he classified through qualifiers (not counting these) when he had barely turned 18. 14-0 since 2023.
He just fulfilled the best clay season since Nadal himself (also counting Sinner at home territory in Rome), just unbeaten for 3 consecutive big titles. Btw I do not pretend Sinner is prime Borg there either, though he played pretty terrific prior that (see Ruud) so kudos to him. No easy feat.
He’s 64-6 (91’4%) this season as to date, 8 titles in total. It’s his peak to date.
Nadal did barely, if ever face an opponent as complete as Carlitos on clay.
2008 was Nadal’s RG best run ever, arguably one of his prime years. But tally tell us he accomplished more overall in 2010 as well as in 2013, his absolute peak was probably a bit later. Whether he overperformed a bit in RG in 2008 compared to his 2009-13 seasons, or the other way around we don’t know. But it was probably not representative of his true level.
Whether you take his proved level there, or his expected level prior the tournament (see Alcaraz’ difference f.e. in this last Wimbledon, where we all expected him to perform better than in 23 and 24 but turned out differently, **** happens), I don’t think he’d get a better record over a large enough sample as 10 against 25’ Carlitos (again, not 21’ nor 23’, but 25’) than his career’s over tour. You’re putting Carlitos barely over tour’s average there to compensate for however much you think Nadal declined after 2008 (when his 2017’s level f.e., to name one was not far off either).
The 5th set debate is you guys losing the plot and proving my fanboyism point. “Venirse arriba” as we say in Spanish.
Btw there’s this game, with an old yet reminiscent Nadal and a 18yo Carlitos. Are Madrid’s conditions that different from Paris? Is a 18yo expected to win an absolute clay-goated 35yo while we claim the later would “10/10ed” him if both in their peaks? It’s a cool anecdote but it may serve to check some maximalist claims you know.
You guys loved the Big 3, we get it. No need to downplay other ATGs, especially when on their era.
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Nadal 08 '10-0' ing alcaraz 25 in RG if they played 10x honestly wasn't exaggerate statement. Or any other alcaraz in RG.
If you watched the whole matches of Nadal in RG 08, out of 21 sets he played:
He won 21 out of 21 sets.
Out of those 21 sets,
he breadsticking 9 times, that's almost half already.
He bagelling, 3 times.
With only 1 tiebreaker.
I never see any other human could play a tournament as perfect as Nadal in RG08.
Yes there's probability, but there are levels in game. Nadal at least 3 gears above the rest on that RG08. His routine shots seem like winners. The only variable will be how many sets he lost out of those '10 encounters with alcaraz, not match.
To put things in perspective, it's not illogical for alcaraz RG25 to have wins against Nadal RG20 out of 10 attempts,
but for RG08, no chance.
If you watched the whole matches of Nadal in RG 08, out of 21 sets he played:
He won 21 out of 21 sets.
Out of those 21 sets,
he breadsticking 9 times, that's almost half already.
He bagelling, 3 times.
With only 1 tiebreaker.
I never see any other human could play a tournament as perfect as Nadal in RG08.
Yes there's probability, but there are levels in game. Nadal at least 3 gears above the rest on that RG08. His routine shots seem like winners. The only variable will be how many sets he lost out of those '10 encounters with alcaraz, not match.
To put things in perspective, it's not illogical for alcaraz RG25 to have wins against Nadal RG20 out of 10 attempts,
but for RG08, no chance.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
2008 Nadal winning 10-0 against 2025 Alcaraz at the French isn’t really a tough position to take. Carlos had a very nervy start to the 2025 final and that’s suicide against Nadal on clay, especially the very best version of Nadal.
TheVenom1234567
New User
If alcaraz can smash Peak Sinner in the US Open he'll do the same to Nadal and I love Rafa.. who are you to say that Nadal would've beaten alcaraz in the US open ? Nobody could've tought alcaraz smashing Sinner in the US Open Finals.. Alcaraz Peak level on Hard court and grass is higher than Nadal. On clay Nadal easily wins but with the way alcaraz improved his serve I'm picking him on grass and hard over nadal
Jav
Rookie
It’s surely within the realm of possibilities. For you to pick that though you’d need to think Nadal would get closer to 100-0 Carlitos than 90-10 him, for example. Otherwise you’d have picked 9-1.
We’re speaking about the center of the probability distribution. And there is where I call your bias.
You guys may know as much as me about tennis but certainly not about odds, even less so in finals / between “contemporary” ATGs.
As much as I think the 2008-12 Spanish NT is the best football NT ever, I would never put their chances above 2/3 over this current Argentinian squad f.e.
Clay Nadal if anything is a bigger challenge for anyone, hence not just the 66% but the 80%. If you think that’s still an understatement, well, it’s 25 Carlitos on a GS final we talking about, especially on clay. I don’t think Rafa, as clay-GOATed as he is ever faced something like that either, ever. Tennis is a sport of two and you always have a rival in front to beat. Even if going by injury alone because of a physically demanding game. Too many variables to just argue “oh, but Nadal is so much better, see his peak stats” and call it a day pretending you’re so brilliant just because calling out our “recency bias” (when it’s actually more nostalgia and old-glories worshipping).
And just before anyone reads this the wrong way. 80-20 is no disrespect to Nadal. If anything 10-0 is more so, to Carlitos.
Btw already got the Rafa 08 RG video from above in a favorite private list of mine!
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TheVenom1234567
New User
Sinner also Got Smashed by alcaraz in the US Open and he should've lost in straight sets to dimitrov in Wimbledon.. Alcaraz won Wimbledon in 2023 having a much tougher Draw than Rafa did in 2008... Alcaraz in 2023 in Wimbledon Had to beat Big Servers like Barrettini, Jarry, Peak Medvedev those are the type of players that give Rafa A lot of Problems on Grass big Servers... When Alcaraz is at best I believe he's better on Grass than Nadal... Alcaraz won 2 Wimbledon Titles having Tougher Draws than Nadal in 2008 and 2010... Nadal in 2010 Went 5 sets in the 2nd and 3rd round with Journeymans lol..
TheVenom1234567
New User
But alcaraz can raise his level.. alcaraz lost 6-1 in Wimbledon in the first set to Djokovic that's suicide still cameback and won.. I'm not saying alcaraz would beat nadal in Roland garros but he's got a chance to win especially if alcaraz Completely Peaks...
The Blond Blur
G.O.A.T.
The overrating of RG25 Carl is assuming to say the least. He dropped sets against: Marozsan, Dzumhur (that was a particularly subpar performance), Shelton, and Musetti. Then he was 2-0 down vs The Sinner (whose lone CC title came over 3 years ago in a Mickey Mouse event). And then was down triple CP where The Sinner choked on at least 2/3 of those points. Now you put that same Carl against RG08 RAFA and it’s going to be a straight sets loss 10/10 times.
TheVenom1234567
New User
Nice cherry picking. Nadal in 2010 in Wimbledon Was down 2 Sets to 1 in the 2nd Round and 3rd round to Journeymans and I'm supposed to believe he would've beaten Alcaraz in Wimbledon ? Alcaraz on Grass and Hard would have the Edge over Nadal... On clay Nadal is way better I'll give him that but alcaraz is the better All-round Court player....
Yes, it’s not worthy of being better than prime Nadal. Do you think this is some sort of insult?
Again, 2024 almost losing to Tiafoe was awful and something I can’t defend. Nor is going 4-4 in Slam sets vs Medvedev across 2023-24 honestly. And yes 2025 was nothing short of an abomination compared to Rafa’s equivalent aged 2008. Carlos set a record for most times broken before the Final in 2025.
You’ve looked past all my valid points because you want to appear above it all somehow. I don’t think you know me, and I don’t think you know what I’m arguing or why, but I’d urge you to do some more reading. I’m an Alcaraz fan who expects the best from him and when he doesn’t deliver I don’t try to deflect, I own it. Many fans get caught in the “never criticize your favorites” cycle, and I promise that’s a much more unhealthy place to be than where I am.
Ultimately, Carlos is still very good in the grand scheme of things. Better grass player than 99.9% of tennis players (behind Nadal, Borg, or Becker) at equivalent age. Could’ve been much better with better coaching, but alas we are stuck with JCF for the foreseeable.
The Blond Blur
G.O.A.T.
The thread is about RAFA vs Carl at age 22. Well an age 22 RAFA beat a prime Fed…and a same aged Carl was nearly beaten by a 38 year old Fognini. Age for age I’ll take RAFA’s level at: AO, RG, WB, the Olympics, and the YEC.
jl809
Legend
Nope. Never said that. Peak Nadal, against 2025 Alcaraz, yes
You are right. I do not know Carlos’ strengths or anything about betting odds
And very probably should have lost in 4
Agreed, and I am not discounting some future version of Alcaraz displaying a higher level than what we’ve seen from him so far. But I’m not commenting on that future version here
Most tennis fans agree he was at his peak on clay at RG in 2008, and it’s also widely accepted that you can peak on a surface in a year in which you are not peaking on others and vice versa (like Ned’s Wimbledon 13 showing). Plus if you’re looking for a 365 day period in which he achieved the most, his 3 slam, Olympic winning 23rd year of life trumps all else… and it featured the end of RG 08
I don’t really get this point tbh. I could have quoted the widely accepted “peak” Nadal’s W/L ratio but it’s predictably got 0 in the L category. It doesn’t have to be 2008 Nadal either for the discussion still to work
What debate is this? The one about Alcaraz doing what Djokovic only managed once and Federer never did? I think it would be a great discussion tbh
Anyone using Madrid 2021 to extrapolate a hypothetical 2025 Alcaraz vs 2007/8/10/12(/17?) Nadal match at RG is an idiot. And that changes nothing about the fact that it is not unreasonable to suggest peak Nadal goes 10-0 vs 2025 Raz.
I am not saying anyone who DOESN’T think Peak Nadal would go 10-0 vs 25 Raz is an idiot. What I am saying is that it is silly to dismiss people who DO think that as purely fanboys. Nadal has done enough over the years - in fact I’m not sure he could have done more - to make that a reasonable take
Again, anyone who is saying “lol 2025 Alcaraz is ****, he wouldn’t even win 1 match vs peak Nadal at RG” like that’s some crime on Alcaraz’s part or a legit reason to discredit him is an idiot. It’s like complaining that someone is bad at football because they wouldn’t be able to replace Pelé in the 1970 Brazil side
I’m sure most people in this thread and on this site - including me - agree that 2025 Alcaraz would not win a single match in a 10 match series against peak Nadal on clay, AND agree that the 2025 RG final was incredible, and was played at an incredibly high level, and that Alcaraz is having a fantastic season. Nothing wrong with all those things being true
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Mustard
Bionic Poster
The 2025 US Open aside, Alcaraz is famous for tough runs to his major wins. Certainly much more than Nadal.
TheVenom1234567
New User
On clay sure but on Hard and grass I'm backing alcaraz over nadal.. Nadal Draws in Wimbledon in 2008 and 2010 were much easier than alcaraz in 2023 and 2024.... Nadal in 2010 Was down 2 sets to 1 in Wimbledon in the 2nd and 3rd round to Journeymans lol.... Alcaraz won Wimbledon in 2023 Beating Barrettini, Jarry, Prime Medvedev, Rune when he was 6th in the World, also Djokovic in the Finals.. alcaraz had a Nightmare Draw in Wimbledon in 2023 and still Won.. we all know Nadal struggles on Grass against Big Servers...
Hahahahahahahahaha
Yeah Berrettini Medvedev and 36 year old Djokovic are much tougher than 2008 Federer on grass
I’ve heard it all now.
You are a prime example of the exact sort of hype machine fan that I actively try not to be. I love Carlos but his fans are embarrassing him in this thread.
TheVenom1234567
New User
Alcaraz 2023, 2024 Wimbledon Runs are more impressive than Nadal 2008 and 2010 Runs Because he had a tougher Draw.... Nadal In 2010 was down 2 Sets to 1 in the 2nd and 3rd Round to Journeymens lol.... Alcaraz Won Wimbledon in 2023 Beating Big Servers Like Barrettini, Jarry, Prime Medvedev when he had a better Serve also Beat Rune when he was 6th in the World then Djokovic that Draw is much tougher than Nadal 2008 Run in Wimbledon or 2010..... in Wimbledon and US Open I'll Back Alcaraz over Nadal but in Roland Garros is easily Nadal I won't Argue that...
dking68
G.O.A.T.
If Nadal from 2008, took 3 sets from a prime Federer - who was on a 5 Wimbledon title win streak, I can’t see why he would not be able to take 3 from Alcaraz at Wimbledon.
Also, at RG, if Sinner could’ve held his damn serve it could’ve been finished in 3 sets. 2008dal would’ve given him no room to breathe. In that third set, Alcaraz was drowning but Sinner let him off the hook - Nadal (2008) would’ve had no mercy. A bagel would not be surprising
The Australian Open is a toss up, but there is no way Nadal would’ve lost to a Geriatric Djokovic who was struggling on movement and very slow on court, but I give Nadal the benefit of the doubt.
USO is in the air. I don’t like to compare, but I don’t think we saw the true Nadal at the 2008 USO, due to fatigue
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
Kralingen peaking.
Mustard
Bionic Poster
The amount of times that Nadal had to beat Federer and Djokovic in majors says it all, and he usually did.
Alcaraz was dropping sets at the 2025 French Open to Marozsan, Dzumhur, Shelton and Musetti, and that's before the final. At 2024 Wimbledon, Alcaraz was pushed to 5 sets by Tiafoe, and lost a set to Humbert, Paul and Medvedev. At 2023 Wimbledon, we know that Alcaraz was 1 point away from going 2 sets down against Djokovic in the final.
TheVenom1234567
New User
US Open is not up in the Air stop being Delusional LMAO.. If Carlos Alcaraz can Smash Peak Sinner who's 24 Years Old I can't see why he's wouldn't do the same thing to Nadal.. is Nadal really better on Hard Courts than Sinner ? No and his serve is weaker than Sinner LMAO.... 2025 Alcaraz Would Beat Nadal in straight Sets in the US Open I can't see how Nadal can win especially how Sinner got completely Overpowered.....
Also Sinner didn't hold His Serve because Alcaraz started to Return well give him credit you clown stop acting like alcaraz didn't completely raised his level. Nadal is not a great server so If Sinner was struggling to hold his serve Do you think Nadal is going to be any Different ? Alcaraz is a great Returner so of course Sinner was having Issues holding his serve. You're talking like alcaraz was getting lucky breaking Sinner serve...
Jav
Rookie
And there it is, your average nostalgic. Like a boomer rating The Godfather on IBMD to unprecedented levels as if we didn’t see it’s already clearly ranked #1. Refusing to elaborate further, he insists no other film work has ever remotely come close, not even the «overrated» sequel.
Taking affirmative feedback from other worshippers pals of his in this TTW echo chamber while mocking on others’ maybe as hot, but contrary opinions and from probably more real experts like McEnroe’s or Moura’s.
Moving the overton window day in day out with the likes of Hewitt or Safin, while discrediting current competition pool. If it’s objectively poorer they’ll make sure you see it as absolutely dreadful.
All this while ignoring Carlitos current strengths and accomplishments of his own, of course. Like his relatively inconsistent, yet overall late-stage improving dynamics and fantastic finals record. No need to do so. Tennis stopped after 2009.
As his GS achievements at his age are second to none though, if anything, focusing on his fails as a youngster, in a kind of slippery slope fallacy with his (rare) defeats. Or even if by fails it means not being impeccable on every tournament he wins. So that we conclude Nadal would streamroll him 10 out of 10 as easy as with any other. We all know Nadal faced 6 times GS champions (or x4 as Carlitos was, prior RG) everyday back then.
And finishing with the same preconceived, maximalist bold claim from the start while attending no discrepant arguments whatsoever. Probably next goalpost (already mentioned): how many 5 setters would Carlitos get out of his 10 loses.
Such a shame the pic reference, good series and great character Dwight is, could even argue you’re doing an impression of him here
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TheVenom1234567
New User
Bro you can't be serious LMAO.... Tommy Paul was Ranked 12th in the World and Won Queen's Club in 2024 and Medvedev Was Ranked 5th in the world he beat Sinner in Wimbledon in 2024 so Dropping a set to them is not Bad LMAO.... Humbert Was Ranked 16th in the World so alcaraz is not Dropping sets to Mugs he's dropping sets to Really Dangerous players.. Nadal in 2010 went 5 sets in the 2nd Round with Haase who's a Mug he wasn't even Ranked and he Had nadal in Huge trouble as he was up 2 sets to 1 then in the 3rd Round Nadal was in Huge trouble again Being down 2 sets to 1 to Petzschner who Highest Ranking ever was 35th in the world so the 2 players that Had Nadal in Huge Trouble are much worse than Medvedev, Tommy, Humbert, Tiafo....
The Blond Blur
G.O.A.T.
Yes, because your recency bias zoomer opinion is so much better, lol. I get it, you think the new shiny toy is always better. I love how you didn’t even try to address any of the points I made and instead just decided to attack me instead.
As far as “real experts” like McEnroe go, he’s a paid commentator whose job is solely to boost the interest of the sport. And the way you do that is hyping up the current group of players. I couldn’t care less that he thinks Sincaraz would not only beat RAFA, but be favored over him at RG if all places
It’s not my fault RG25 Carl struggled with an easy draw and then was 2-0 and then triple CP down vs a guy whose lone CC title is Umag. You haven’t even made an argument for how RG25 Carl would somehow beat RG08 RAFA. How can I ignore and argument that hasn’t even been presented?
Like arguing with the Ange fan club all over again.
Jav
Rookie
Yes, because your recency bias zoomer opinion is so much better, lol. I get it, you think the new shiny toy is always better. I love how you didn’t even try to address any of the points I made and instead just decided to attack me instead.
As far as “real experts” like McEnroe go, he’s a paid commentator whose job is solely to boost the interest of the sport. And the way you do that is hyping up the current group of players. I couldn’t care less that he thinks Sincaraz would not only beat RAFA, but be favored over him at RG if all places
It’s not my fault RG25 Carl struggled with an easy draw and then was 2-0 and then triple CP vs a guy who’s lone CC title is Umag.
You’re trying to act like the objective guy here while defining Sinner as “a guy who’s lone CC title is Umag”. You see the inconsistency, right?
What if I told you he played better in the RG F than Federer and Novak for most of their careers on clay, especially prior 2008? And yeah I’m taking Nadal’s clay deflation / burden in count there.
Maybe a exposure to some contrary claims will do you well.
Sorry for calling your bias out on your beloved website. There’s much world and tennis outside this you know.
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Vincent-C
Legend
Hopefully Learner continues his highly enjoyable Miseducation of Lauryn Medvedev.Any thoughts on Meddy v Tien here, Kral?
Vincent-C
Legend
Learner lookin' good. Go, both guys!
Jav
Rookie
BauerAlmeida
Legend
Nadal was indeed better, but it's not crazy to make a case for Alcaraz. He won at least 2 slams on every surface. And the youngest ever #1.
The Blond Blur
G.O.A.T.
I’m sorry, is Umag not Sinner’s only CC title? Has he won another CC title that we’re all not familiar with?
I would tell you that’s your subjective opinion that’s not based on anything besides being a Carl fan. Nor does it address why Carl struggled so much with such an easy draw leading up to the F and why he was on the brink of losing to a guy who’s a significantly worse CCer than either of Fedovic were. Speaking of Joker isn’t Ancientovic 2-0 and 5-1 in sets played vs Carl at RG?
Claims by themselves mean nothing if the foundation holding them up is nonexistent.
I love how you’re supposedly calling out my bias when you’re clearly far more biased since your claims and opinions aren’t back by anything other than well *insert former player* said this therefore it must be true. You could not be any lazier than relying on someone else to do your thinking for you. Sorry not sorry.
Vincent-C
Legend
weak era
I can get halfway there.
Vincent-C
Legend
Good man!I can get halfway there.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I think Alcaraz is the more natural grass player and in the long run will eclipse Nadal’s achievements on grass (he’s already tied him in Wimbledon titles and overall title count). But young Nadal was a beast on the turf. From age 20-22, they both made three consecutive finals, and even though Nadal walked away with one less title, he really faced the tougher finals opponent (though the overall field before the final is a wash, or if anything slightly tougher for Carlos). I’d put Nadal slightly ahead at Wimbledon at this exact same age, considering both level and achievements, but I expect Alcaraz to end up clear of Nadal when all is said and done.
Also the gap at the US Open same-age is huge. Arguably as big as the gap between the pair at Roland Garros. Alcaraz already has two titles. Nadal hadn’t even beaten a top-ten player. Even if 2022 was not the strongest title, no version of Nadal from 05-07 is winning that tournament either – not when he lost to Blake, Youzhny, and Ferrer. 08 maybe, but then that still lags way, way, way behind the level Carlos showed this year.
Still, overall, I’d give Nadal the nod for having a big edge at Roland Garros and a small edge at Wimbledon. Alcaraz has a big edge at the US Open but then the Australian is basically a wash. Also Nadal’s superiority at clay Masters far exceeds Alcaraz’s at hard court Masters.
Also the gap at the US Open same-age is huge. Arguably as big as the gap between the pair at Roland Garros. Alcaraz already has two titles. Nadal hadn’t even beaten a top-ten player. Even if 2022 was not the strongest title, no version of Nadal from 05-07 is winning that tournament either – not when he lost to Blake, Youzhny, and Ferrer. 08 maybe, but then that still lags way, way, way behind the level Carlos showed this year.
Still, overall, I’d give Nadal the nod for having a big edge at Roland Garros and a small edge at Wimbledon. Alcaraz has a big edge at the US Open but then the Australian is basically a wash. Also Nadal’s superiority at clay Masters far exceeds Alcaraz’s at hard court Masters.
Jav
Rookie
Never implied you did so, literally.
But let me get it clear: you think there’s many examples of better clay courters than 25 Alcaraz, so to make the opposite of “anybody” significant? Who are they?
Thanks for proving my point I guess. Too ignorant to make any minimally spot-on estimate. No offense.
You’re ignoring Carlitos’ own wasted BPs on 1st set I see.
If if if
Fair enough. Though always pertinent, since we all like to bring back all Big 3 peaks, to point out this is probably not Carlitos’ yet. Just a friendly reminder.
Fair enough.
Let’s go with “apples”.
Peak Nadal vs rest of tour: 7-0 (or 14-0, 21-0, 28-0… whatever)
Average Carlitos vs rest of tour: 7-0 (or 14-0, 19-1… just his most recent record, as mentioned)
For you guys to claim Nadal’s real, proven 10-0 peak would translate to a 10-0 just as much v Carlitos, lost sets included, you’d need to think Nadal’s average rival on any round was somewhat comparable to current Carlitos.
Yeah, his 10-0s were much more dominant, as mentioned. Still, didn’t face many unbeaten-streak players on clay back then, not even Federer nor Djokovic later in their careers. A couple of them would go more sets than usual for sure, and you’d only need one relative slip and/or Carlitos stellar performance (not rare of his) out of 10 to prevent the 10-0 we talking about.
As far as I know Novak beat him twice. It goes beyond 5 setters.
I don’t rate Federer’s clay court level that high, I’m sorry. Especially when most encounters there were early in their careers (Fed’s old racket, BH etc). Federer dropped after his great 2011 run (at least until SFs) as much as Nadal did on grass, with the exception the later still got his 2018 W SFs to brag about. In which position Rafa sits as grass ATGs, you tell me.
I think I made textually clear the anecdotical part of it. More of a curiosity.
It doesn’t necessarily extrapolate. Though to demyth the whole maximalist 10/10 claim, it could maybe serve a bit more than any other evidence or mindfucks we come up with here, why not.
About the “reasonability”, just from a previous reply of mine:
It’s surely within the realm of possibilities. For you to pick that though you’d need to think Nadal would get closer to 100-0 Carlitos than 90-10 him, for example. Otherwise you’d have picked 9-1.
We’re speaking about the center of the probability distribution. And there is where I call your bias.
Oh, I’m accusing them of fanboyism beyond this, don’t worry.
Again, I’ve read enough on this platform to know most people’s weak points.
Good for you guys. I disagree.
Whether your opinion remains objective or not it goes beyond TTW and ad populums. As I said, and as you already recognized (don’t know if sarcastically), I’m certain I know more about Statistics than most of you guys. Nothing wrong there either per se. But as we’re discussing a topic about chances in sport I just probably know better what I’m saying.
Cheers
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Racquet_smash
Hall of Fame
Apparently 27 years old prime Roger Federer who was on a 65 matches win streak on grass with 0 sets dropped in that entire grass season before the final isn't a strong opponent. Yet 36 yo Djoko is.
Ah.
Ah.
Don’t forget Medvedev, Jarry, and Rune
Jav
Rookie
This is not what you said.
Do you see me calling Nadal’s much poorer USO performances prior 2008, where he didn’t get close to the final to face a prime Sinner an abomination?
Of course that’s an insult. No need to go hyperbole with every claim you make. You could very well think it was poor from him or poorer than Nadal’s while using proper, normal language you know.
Ok. He won though. I take those as the inevitable learning process of any youngsters.
He’s arguably the fastest learner ever btw. No need to “mock” him?
I wish more abominations from him, then.
I honestly doubt it, but if that’s the case great for you.
I criticize him for many things. I don’t think he reads TTW though.
I wouldn’t risk changing him. It’s the known bad, if we can call it bad because we honestly don’t have anything to compare him with.
I rate highly his new serve and BH techniques though. He had much to do with that I’m sure.
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