Who will be in the ATP top 10 at the end of 2024?

Aabye5 said:
Oh, is that so. Like I don't know the points system. I think one or two other players are going to do better than him at the Slams, so he won't be number one. I don't think he's finishing number 1, based on the points he earns next year. Therefore, his ranking will drop compared to this year. Clear?
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Because you know, you wrote: ‘I think Novak falls just by virtue of the number of points he is defending…’
 
Jardinier said:
Because you know, you wrote: ‘I think Novak falls just by virtue of the number of points he is defending…’
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Yes, I think his ranking will fall. He is still defending titles (and points). He doesn't need to defend everything to stay number 1, but I am not convinced he is defending 3 Slams. I think others will perform better over the course of the year.

It's true, every player starts with a blank slate in the Race, but I think his ranking will drop over the course of the year influencing his draws.
 
Kralingen said:
Yeah as said in another thread the top 4 seems about as clear cut and stable as it has been in ages really, the SFs of the YEC clearly include the best 4 players in the world. Rune and Z can get close to that but both had various injury issues this year and will be looking to improve. The key for them is their unimpressive forehands, if they could improve them to the top level consistently they could be legitimate Slam contenders.

But yeah things do feel rather stable going into next year. I think that aside from some sort of nuclear leap from Fils Shelton or Ruud (yes, really, haven’t fully written him off) we won’t see any new Top 5 members and should have the same general 12 guys in contention for YEC.

Nadal is actually the wild card to get back to the top 5 moreso than any young player breaking out. Shelton will be interesting though.
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I'm still not that sold on Sinner but I'm getting there he certainly looked impressive this fall. I definitely still think that the best Rune and the best Zverev would beat Sinner. For me the potential will always be there with Zverev I just think it's unlikely that we ever see it but who knows for now it's still possible.

I agree that your dark horses could make some noise but I'm unsure what a nuclear leap from Ruud would look like. Where in his game is there something that you think could make a big leap? Fils is exciting for sure the serve right now is an issue but everything else looks like it could get there.

I think Nadal is toast but I really hope I'm wrong.
 
The Guru said:
I'm still not that sold on Sinner but I'm getting there he certainly looked impressive this fall. I definitely still think that the best Rune and the best Zverev would beat Sinner. For me the potential will always be there with Zverev I just think it's unlikely that we ever see it but who knows for now it's still possible.

I agree that your dark horses could make some noise but I'm unsure what a nuclear leap from Ruud would look like. Where in his game is there something that you think could make a big leap? Fils is exciting for sure the serve right now is an issue but everything else looks like it could get there.

I think Nadal is toast but I really hope I'm wrong.
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I think Sinner is very nearly there it’s just about taking the next step with his serve which allows him to preserve that burgeoning elite baseline form for the important points which require it. Novak is a perfect example to study for him.

Rune I think is better on clay but not sure how you could realistically make an argument for him on outdoor HC or grass, where Sinner has won big titles and had real Slam success.

Zverev is maybe more reliable throughout a season than the younger guys but he hasn’t put a real scare into a top player since summer of 2021.

Ruud I just see his 2023 as the season from hell and I think he can improve his BH further and up the aggressiveness on the FH. Never a Slam winner in my eyes but I think he can fight for big prizes still and surpass the Tsitsipas and Rublevs in the top 6 or so, I think he’s someone who can play better than what he showed last year. Guys like Tsitsipas Fritz Rublev etc are really not going to do anything more imo.

Another two I thought of, FAA and Shapo who really don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt lol but I can sort of see a world where one gets back to top 10 or around there.

Dominic Stricker another guy I have my eye on.
 
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Aabye5 said:
I've got (in no particular order) :

1. Sinner
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Rune
5. Medvedev
6. Tsitsipas
7. Hurkacz
8. Korda
9. FAA
10. Djokovic


I think Novak falls just by virtue of the number of points he is defending, but not sure where he lands in the final count.
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At the end of 2024 he isn't defending any points, because the only points counted will be 2024 points.
 
Aabye5 said:
Stef is so underrated on these boards. Yes, he struggles to beat Nole and Carlitos but he is not a lost cause.
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timnz said:
At the end of 2024 he isn't defending any points, because the only points counted will be 2024 points.
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This is true. No one is arguing with you about the points. My point is that his ranking will be lower. Do you understand?
 
Aabye5 said:
This is true. No one is arguing with you about the points. My point is that his ranking will be lower. Do you understand?
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If you are meaning that he is unlikely to achieve as much in 2024 as compared to 2023 I understand your point . (Not sure how he will perform in 2024 to be honest)
 
timnz said:
If you are meaning that he is unlikely to achieve as much in 2024 as compared to 2023 I understand your point . (Not sure how he will perform in 2024 to be honest)
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No one is sure, but I think there has been a very subtle shift in the power dynamics between Djokovic and the field. It's the Djere match that makes me think we could see something different in 2024. Maybe.

I am not convinced the NextGen need to beat Djokovic as long as they can find someone to do it for them. For instance, a wily veteran.
 
dking68 said:
In order

1. Djokovic
2. Alcaraz/Sinner
3. Alcaraz/Sinner
4. Medvedev
5. Zverev
6. Tsitsipas
7. Rune
8. Rublev
9. Khachanov
10. Hurkacz

Honorable mention - Fils, Shelton, Fritz, Tiafoe
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In order, and barring injuries, and just a guess:

1. Alcaraz Garfia
2.-3. Medvedev/Sinner
4. Djokovic
5. Rune
6. Zverev
7. Rublev
8. Tsitsipas
9. Berrettini
10. Tiafoe


AO - Medvedev
RG - Alcaraz Garfia
Wimbledon - Djokovic
USO - ????? .
YEC - Alcaraz or Sinner


Djokovic will sacrifice some significant points to get Olympic Gold and he will get Gold or Silver. And he will fade toward the end of the year.

Khachanov out of top 10 but will make a Slam final. Rune will probably make a Slam final. Tsitsipas will be inconsistent but will have some highlights - maybe Italian Open title and RG final, maybe deep run at Wimbledon.

HashDump said:
No one even considers Rafa in the top 10 on the end of 2024?
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Yes, for sure. I had him 10th. I see him winning Rio, doing well at Acapulco and IW, winning at least one of the clay run-ups (Barcelona, Madrid or Rome), losing at some stage after 4th Rd. at RG, maybe the final and most likely to Alcaraz. Possibly doing well at Wimbledon. Contending for Rogers Cup title maybe. But then the body gives out, as it always has, but sooner now, because he is "old". Berrettini is a hunch, Tiafoe is a hope.
 
Aabye5 said:
Yes, I think his ranking will fall. He is still defending titles (and points). He doesn't need to defend everything to stay number 1, but I am not convinced he is defending 3 Slams. I think others will perform better over the course of the year.

It's true, every player starts with a blank slate in the Race, but I think his ranking will drop over the course of the year influencing his draws.
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Barring multiple tragedies or a serious injury, I don't see Djokovic bounced out of the #4 ranking until after the USO is over. If he's in the top 4, there isn't all that much difference in how he's placed in the draws
 
Kralingen said:
Rune I think is better on clay but not sure how you could realistically make an argument for him on outdoor HC or grass, where Sinner has won big titles and had real Slam success.
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Rune is 20 and prior to this year, had never won an ATP match on grass. Yet he made the semis of Queen's, losing to the eventual champion and made the QF's of Wimbledon, where he again lost to the eventual champion. Those are equal results to what Fed had achieved on grass at age 20. So I just made a realistic and compelling argument for him on grass.

And what "slam success" are you talking about for Sinner? He's never made it past the QF at the two HC slams or RG (where Rune's made two QF's). Slam success means winning, not making one semi at Wimbledon. And what "big titles" has Sinner won on grass? None...
 
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BeatlesFan said:
Do you really think he's winning RG at 38? His current rank is 662. It would take a near miracle for him to get top 10.
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Do not underestimate the clay GOAT. Why are you so sure he will not be the tittle contender? You think he is coming back just to be eliminated in the third round or something? I don't think so.
 
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jm1980 said:
Barring multiple tragedies or a serious injury, I don't see Djokovic bounced out of the #4 ranking until after the USO is over. If he's in the top 4, there isn't all that much difference in how he's placed in the draws
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It's not about where Djokovic is placed but where a player like Rafa is placed. The draws will change first.

I'm not convinced Rafa is going to come back and take on Nole like old times. It's more that he could be a complication in the first week and combined with a match like the one Nole played against Djere this year, Djokovic could be pretty drained by the latter stages of the majors.
 
HashDump said:
Do not underestimate the clay GOAT. Why are you so sure he will not be the tittle contender? You think he is coming back just to be eliminated in the third round or something? I don't think so.
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If Nadal comes back at 60% he will beat everyone on clay except Djokovic. At 80% he could beat Djoker too.
 
Aabye5 said:
It's not about where Djokovic is placed but where a player like Rafa is placed. The draws will change first.

I'm not convinced Rafa is going to come back and take on Nole like old times. It's more that he could be a complication in the first week and combined with a match like the one Nole played against Djere this year, Djokovic could be pretty drained by the latter stages of the majors.
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That's what I meant. For the purposes of placing opponents, 1-4 are essentially identical (except 1-2 and 3-4 can't meet until final), so it matters very little whether he is anywhere from 1st to 4th
 
jm1980 said:
That's what I meant. For the purposes of placing opponents, 1-4 are essentially identical (except 1-2 and 3-4 can't meet until final), so it matters very little whether he is anywhere from 1st to 4th
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I am saying the opposite, I guess? If he is seeded #1 with a miserable draw (Rafa, Sinner, Alcaraz at RG, for example), that's a lot different than being seeded #2 with Medvedev in his half.

We agree that his seeding is irrelevant.
 
Aabye5 said:
I am saying the opposite, I guess? If he is seeded #1 with a miserable draw (Rafa, Sinner, Alcaraz at RG, for example), that's a lot different than being seeded #2 with Medvedev in his half.

We agree that his seeding is irrelevant.
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I'm just saying his seeding probably won't drop enough for it to make a real difference in where his opponents are placed. I don't see him dropping down below the 4th spot, and 1-4 are practically identical.

In Slams:
  • 1-8 play 25-32 in third round
  • 1-4 play 13-16 in fourth round
  • 1-4 play 5-8 in quarters
  • 1-2 play 3-4 in semis
 
jm1980 said:
I'm just saying his seeding probably won't drop enough for it to make a real difference in where his opponents are placed. I don't see him dropping down below the 4th spot, and 1-4 are practically identical.

In Slams:
  • 1-8 play 25-32 in third round
  • 1-4 play 13-16 in fourth round
  • 1-4 play 5-8 in quarters
  • 1-2 play 3-4 in semis
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Yes. His seeding is irrelevant to how difficult his draw will be.
 
BeatlesFan said:
Do you really think he's winning RG at 38? His current rank is 662. It would take a near miracle for him to get top 10.
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Nadal goes deep in a few clay masters and Roland garros - and bingo he is back in the top 20. Unknown where he goes from there
 
Agree. Most likely the ATP top ten one year from now will look very similar to today. Shelton has a very good chance of breaking through. Dimitrov might as well.
 
BeatlesFan said:
Rune is 20 and prior to this year, had never won an ATP match on grass. Yet he made the semis of Queen's, losing to the eventual champion and made the QF's of Wimbledon, where he again lost to the eventual champion. Those are equal results to what Fed had achieved on grass at age 20. So I just made a realistic and compelling argument for him on grass.

And what "slam success" are you talking about for Sinner? He's never made it past the QF at the two HC slams or RG (where Rune's made two QF's). Slam success means winning, not making one semi at Wimbledon. And what "big titles" has Sinner won on grass? None... So I just dismantled your entire remark.
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Lol keep comparing Fed and Rune. Fed had firepower Rune can only dream of
 
The Guru said:
Curious if other people feel this way but I'd be shocked if anyone in the top 8 is not in the top 10 next year assuming health. That said pretty much any order would not be all that surprising. Outside of Rublev and probably Tsitsipas I could see any of them finishing the year top 3. I expect Carlos to assume the title of best in the world next year once and for all though I just can't see anyone competing with him on clay unless Rune magically figures out how to play at a high level for more than 2 hours. I'm expecting Rafa level dominance over the dirt next year for Carlos.
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I think players are figuring out Alcaraz, who is not particularly strong physically nor mentally as of now. ATP is rather weak on clay in 2023, so much so that Med won in Rome. And Novak probably didn't expect to win RG until quite late in the clay season.
It will be different in 2024 with Nadal coming back and Novak focusing on clay. The titans will clash again and Alcaraz may be one of them at the best.
 
In no order

Novak
Alcaraz
Sinner
Rune
Zverev
Medvedev
Rublev
Tsitsipas
Hurkacz
Fils


Taking a flyer on Fils but I think he will be ready to move up next year. Could also see Medvedev and or tsitsipas dropping off with maybe Shelton moving in. Not sure Shelton is consistent enough though.
 
Aabye5 said:
I've got (in no particular order) :

1. Sinner
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Rune
5. Medvedev
6. Tsitsipas
7. Hurkacz
8. Korda
9. FAA
10. Djokovic


I think Novak falls just by virtue of the number of points he is defending, but not sure where he lands in the final count.
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This is the second year I've done exactly what you're doing. Maybe you can copy and paste the picks here to the other thread, and we can move the discussion there (then we can also discuss results). I can put together a spread sheet showing everyone's picks.
Thank you!
 
Djokovic
Nadal
Alcaraz
Sinner
Rune
Tsitsipas
Zverev
Medvedev
Rublev
Ruud

In no particular order.
 
Novak
Sinner
Rublev
Medvedev
Alcaraz

Appear to be safe bets of finishing inside the Top 10 this year. Zverev and Hurkacz are likely to join them.

This leaves 3 wildcard sports like in most seasons. I'd still have faith in Tsitsipas, Fritz and Felix. I know in some previous lists I've added some younger guys but I'll just stick with these.
 
timnz said:
Nadal goes deep in a few clay masters and Roland garros - and bingo he is back in the top 20. Unknown where he goes from there
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For Nadal to be among the 32 seeds for Roland Garros, he would have to have between 1200 and 1300 points, something almost impossible given that he continues to withdraw from tournaments.
:notworthy:
 
Aabye5 said:
I've got (in no particular order) :

1. Sinner
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Rune
5. Medvedev
6. Tsitsipas
7. Hurkacz
8. Korda
9. FAA
10. Djokovic


I think Novak falls just by virtue of the number of points he is defending, but not sure where he lands in the final count.
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FAA? No.
 
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