Who Will Be Top 10 At The End Of 2024

[Beacon Hill]

Just like the 2023 predictions that some of us did for this year. It's tough because there are a lot of factors to consider. Get your picks in before the 2024 season begins. I'll finish my final list in soon. I just have to mull over whether Shelton and a couple others can break in, and of course who they will replace. I don't think Ruud will make it, so there's one. And I can't see Fritz in again either. So far:

1. Djokovic
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Sinner
5. Rune
6. Medvedev
7. Hurkacz
8.
9.
10.

 

[socallefty]

Has there been ever the case where the year-end top 10 list was the same for two years in a row on the ATP tour? It seems like the 2023 YE top 10 have a good chance to repeat in 2024 barring major injuries. But I guess there are always major injuries in tennis to at least some top players.

Djokovic, Alcaraz, Medvedev, Sinner, Tsitsipas, Rublev and Zverev should repeat and finish in the top 10 again as they are consistently amongst the best players in the last few years. The #8-10 players Rune, Fritz and Hurkacz have a pretty good chance to finish ahead of their peers also especially with Hurkacz topping the serve leaderboard.

Hope Ruud, Shelton and Paul make things interesting in terms of forcing their way into the top 10 next year. I don’t expect much from ADM, Dimitrov, Khachanov, Tiafoe and Norrie in terms of moving up in the ranking from their current spots between 12-20. The next group of Jarry, Griekspoor, Cerundulo and Humbert have more potential of being dark horses who can get into the #12-15 spots. FAA, Lehecka and Nakashima have been disappointments from what I expected for them at the start of the year.

The other young player who seems exciting to follow next year is Arthur Fils. I will also be following local talent Alex Michelson who played on Orange County courts his whole life.

 

[Beacon Hill]

Has there been ever the case where the year-end top 10 list was the same for two years in a row on the ATP tour? It seems like the 2023 YE top 10 have a good chance to repeat in 2024 barring major injuries. But I guess there are always major injuries in tennis to at least some top players.

Djokovic, Alcaraz, Medvedev, Sinner, Tsitsipas, Rublev and Zverev should repeat and finish in the top 10 again as they are consistently amongst the best players in the last few years. The #8-10 players Rune, Fritz and Hurkacz have a pretty good chance to finish ahead of their peers also especially with Hurkacz topping the serve leaderboard.

Hope Ruud, Shelton and Paul make things interesting in terms of forcing their way into the top 10 next year. I don’t expect much from ADM, Dimitrov, Khachanov, Tiafoe and Norrie in terms of moving up in the ranking from their current spots between 12-20. The next group of Jarry, Griekspoor, Cerundulo and Humbert have more potential of being dark horses who can get into the #12-15 spots. FAA, Lehecka and Nakashima have been disappointments from what I expected for them at the start of the year.

The other young player who seems exciting to follow next year is Arthur Fils. I will also be following local talent Alex Michelson who played on Orange County courts his whole life.

I think there is a chance Paul and Shelton both overtake Fritz next year, but there is so much parity with that second tier of players, it's so difficult to predict. Saffiullin is No. 40 and it's almost a coin flip if he plays anyone up until the top five or so players, and not a shock if he beats anyone. Berrettini is No. 91. Can he get it together and get toward the Top 10 again? It didn't even take 3000 points to get there this year - that's only two or three decent runs at bigger tournaments and you can be below average the rest of the year. Felix made it to No. 30 and he had a mostly terrible year.

 

[ChrisRF]

Just like the 2023 predictions that some of us did for this year. It's tough because there are a lot of factors to consider. Get your picks in before the 2024 season begins. I'll finish my final list in soon. I just have to mull over whether Shelton and a couple others can break in, and of course who they will replace. I don't think Ruud will make it, so there's one. And I can't see Fritz in again either. So far:

1. Djokovic
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Sinner
5. Rune
6. Medvedev
7. Hurkacz
8.
9.
10.

I don't think Zverev will ever even get close to be #3 again. With everything else I agree, especially with Djokovic still being on top.

 

[James P]

Hmmm...2024:

1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Sinner
4. Zverev
5. Medvedev
6. Rublev
7. Rune
8. Ruud
9. Hurkacz
10. Shelton

Next out: Fritz, Paul, Tiafoe, Khachanov, Fils

 

[dking68]

I don't think Zverev will ever even get close to be #3 again. With everything else I agree, especially with Djokovic still being on top.

Yeah I don’t see Zverev passing out Sinner at all

 

[ChrisRF]

Yeah I don’t see Zverev passing out Sinner at all

He may continue to beat the bigger names here and there, but his problem is and will always remain that he can potentially lose to anyone on any day.

 

[dking68]

He may continue to beat the bigger names here and there, but his problem is and will always remain that he can potentially lose to anyone on any day.

His forehand is awful. Sinners forehand is turning into a deadly weapon, I wouldn’t even be surprised if it’s a better shot than Alcaraz’s in the long run

 

[iopzzza]

There is going to be a new upcommer in 2024 that i think might finish in top 10. Named Nadal, or something similar, might put himself in there, may be.

 

[Beacon Hill]

I don't think Zverev will ever even get close to be #3 again. With everything else I agree, especially with Djokovic still being on top.

My list was in no particular order, and I agree that Zverev likely won't get to No. 3. Although he can perform reasonably well on all surfaces, so who knows? His off court problems could also be a factor.

 

[dking68]

My list was in no particular order, and I agree that Zverev likely won't get to No. 3. Although he can perform reasonably well on all surfaces, so who knows? His off court problems could also be a factor.

Yeah but if in 2021 he only finished with an 80% season and Sinner is improving this year and he himself also has an 80% season, I can’t see him finishing above Sinner next year

 

[Lauren_Girl']

Things change so fast in tennis... 1 day one can believe a certain player can win 10 Slams and 1 month later he is a brainless mug who will never win another title... So it's hard to predict a top-10 so long before a date, but... If I had to guess right now, I'd say

1) Djokovic
2) Sinner
3) Alcaraz
4) Medvedev
5) Zverev
6) Rublev
7) Rune
8) Shelton
9) Nadal
10) Fritz

Possible surprises top-10 : Fils, Safiullin, De Minaur, Hurkacz, Tiafoe, Khachanov, Paul... There are a lot of unpredictable players who may snatch the 8th, 9th and 10th seats. De Minaur and Paul are 12 and 13 today and Ruud almost became number 1 so I think any of the current players ranked between 11 and 20 right now are potential candidates for the top-10.

Nadal can be top-10 just with the clay season. 1 Semifinal in RG, 1 clay M1000 and another final + a few points here and there on HC and he'll have his 3,000 points.
Shelton loves Slams, apparently... He'll be very dangerous in AO, RG and USO. But in Shanghaï and Tokyo he proved he can win BO3 matches now. I'll be shocked if he isn't at least top-15 again, but top-10 is possible...
I was wrong to underestimate Rublev in 2022 and 2023, so I won't make that mistake again... Tsitsipas is the one I choose to underestimate,.. lol
I put Sinner ahead of Alcaraz because he is the better player since Wimbledon...
Medvedev has improved on clay and grass but regressed on HC in 2023... but he'll still rack up enough points to be 4 or 5..
Zverev had a great 2023 season given what happened in RG2022. He is 8 now, 2024 can only be better...
I hesitated a lot for the 10th so I picked Fritz... but it could be Hurkacz, Khachanov or Tsitsipas too....

 

[DIMI_D]

Just like the 2023 predictions that some of us did for this year. It's tough because there are a lot of factors to consider. Get your picks in before the 2024 season begins. I'll finish my final list in soon. I just have to mull over whether Shelton and a couple others can break in, and of course who they will replace. I don't think Ruud will make it, so there's one. And I can't see Fritz in again either. So far:

1. Djokovic
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Sinner
5. Rune
6. Medvedev
7. Hurkacz
8.
9.
10.

1) Alcaraz
2) Sinner
3) Djokovic
4) Medvedev
5) Rublev
6) Rune
7) Zverev
8) Nadal
9) Shelton
10) Fritz
Contenders - A.fils, Korda, Hurc,

 

[DIMI_D]

The writing is on the wall for tsitsipas to fall out of the top 10 after the AO and I don’t see him getting back in!

 

[dking68]

The writing is on the wall for tsitsipas to fall out of the top 10 after the AO and I don’t see him getting back in!

He hasn’t made any improvements to his game. I admire Alcaraz and Sinner for trying to improve whether they win or loss, that’s why they’ll be the two gladiators once Novak retires

 

[dking68]

The writing is on the wall for tsitsipas to fall out of the top 10 after the AO and I don’t see him getting back in!

I can see him falling out the top ten but he has big enough weapons to make him to a fourth round/QF but he’ll always fall to the best players who can exploit his weaknesses - aka Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev and Djo

 

[Beacon Hill]

Things change so fast in tennis... 1 day one can believe a certain player can win 10 Slams and 1 month later he is a brainless mug who will never win another title... So it's hard to predict a top-10 so long before a date, but... If I had to guess right now, I'd say

1) Djokovic
2) Sinner
3) Alcaraz
4) Medvedev
5) Zverev
6) Rublev
7) Rune
8) Shelton
9) Nadal
10) Fritz

Possible surprises top-10 : Fils, Safiullin, De Minaur, Hurkacz, Tiafoe, Khachanov, Paul... There are a lot of unpredictable players who may snatch the 8th, 9th and 10th seats. De Minaur and Paul are 12 and 13 today and Ruud almost became number 1 so I think any of the current players ranked between 11 and 20 right now are potential candidates for the top-10.

Nadal can be top-10 just with the clay season. 1 Semifinal in RG, 1 clay M1000 and another final + a few points here and there on HC and he'll have his 3,000 points.
Shelton loves Slams, apparently... He'll be very dangerous in AO, RG and USO. But in Shanghaï and Tokyo he proved he can win BO3 matches now. I'll be shocked if he isn't at least top-15 again, but top-10 is possible...
I was wrong to underestimate Rublev in 2022 and 2023, so I won't make that mistake again... Tsitsipas is the one I choose to underestimate,.. lol
I put Sinner ahead of Alcaraz because he is the better player since Wimbledon...
Medvedev has improved on clay and grass but regressed on HC in 2023... but he'll still rack up enough points to be 4 or 5..
Zverev had a great 2023 season given what happened in RG2022. He is 8 now, 2024 can only be better...
I hesitated a lot for the 10th so I picked Fritz... but it could be Hurkacz, Khachanov or Tsitsipas too....

Good points. I'm not sure Nadal will play another match, so you have more faith than I do
Hurkacz is Top 10 this year, and he had some terrible tournaments so I think he could be there.

 

[Beacon Hill]

The writing is on the wall for tsitsipas to fall out of the top 10 after the AO and I don’t see him getting back in!

He won't make my list. He needed to win one by now because I think the tour is now too deep with players who are 50/50 against him, and it's hard to continuously win streaks of coin flips.

 

[Beacon Hill]

He hasn’t made any improvements to his game. I admire Alcaraz and Sinner for trying to improve whether they win or loss, that’s why they’ll be the two gladiators once Novak retires

Zverev also tried to come forward even when he was terrible at it.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Rune has literally no points to defend from Wimbledon to Basel next year and he has Becker on his side now. He also only has 60 pts to defend in the sunshine double. There is no way he won't gain thousands of points in that stretch, basically assuring that he will remain in the top 10.

 

[dking68]

Rune has literally no points to defend from Wimbledon to Basel next year and he has Becker on his side now. He also only has 60 pts to defend in the sunshine double. There is no way he won't gain thousands of points in that stretch, basically assuring that he will remain in the top 10.

He sucks outdoors

 

[BGod]

Novak, Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune & Zverev seem like safe picks to me.

Rublev, Medvedev and Tsitsipas round out likely contenders.

To have 8 returning Top 10 is not unheard of but rarer than many here may think.

Anywho I'll be a coward and stick with those plus:

Felix back in the fold.
Arthur Fils my wildcard.

 

[Beacon Hill]

Novak, Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune & Zverev seem like safe picks to me.

Rublev, Medvedev and Tsitsipas round out likely contenders.

To have 8 returning Top 10 is not unheard of but rarer than many here may think.

Anywho I'll be a coward and stick with those plus:

Felix back in the fold.
Arthur Fils my wildcard.

Whoa, Felix?!

 

[zvelf]

1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Jannik Sinner
3. Novak Djokovic
4. Daniil Medvedev
5. Holger Rune
6. Alexander Zverev
7. Andrey Rublev
8. Ben Shelton
9. Stefanos Tsitsipas
10. Rafael Nadal

Nadal is a risky pick because his ranking will be so low when he returns. If he gets a lot of matchups against top 10 players early in draws, he will have a tough time reaching the top 10 by year's end. Also, he will have to play most of the season without injury to have a good shot at the top 10 and that's a big if. That said, Federer mostly remained in the top 5 at age 37/38 so I can see Nadal making the top 10 at the same ages if he has truly recovered from injury.

Tsitsipas is probably underrated hereabouts at this point. That said, I could easily swap out Tsitsipas for another underrated player, Ruud, or for Hurkacz. Ruud had a worse year than 2021 or 2022, but he'll only be 25 next year and could rebound. My dark horses are Dimitrov, Jarry, Korda, and Safiullin.

Despite weak-era complaints, the players discussed in this thread make 2024 look like a solid year for competition.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Alcaraz Djokovic Sinner Medvedev will probably be there without injuries.

For the rest there is a huge bunch.

Tsitsipas
Zverev
Rune
Rublev
Hurkacz
Shelton
Ruud
Nadal

These are probably the 8 players who can get to top 8.

I think Ruud may find it difficult and so will anyone outside this group. I considered Dimitrov but dropped him. He is still not good enough to play pre USOpen to me.

Who else is there.

Fritz ADM and Paul ? These are accidental top 10s not real threat. Tiafoe, no chance.

I think Medvedev might get surpassed by Sinner but he will definitely not be surpassed outside top 4. We have to see how Rune improves but rankings wise I will have Medvedev ahead.

Discarding the mid clay season results this year and year end results this year since it was injury filled time. The best performers this year are.

Djokovic
Alcaraz
Medvedev
Sinner
Rublev

 

[Beacon Hill]

In no particular order, and subject to change before December 31st:

1. Djokovic - unfortunately.
2. Alcaraz - hard to tell if he'll fall to the middle of the pack or win three majors next year.
3. Zverev - barring off-court problems.
4. Sinner - entering his prime.
5. Rune - he's at times hard to take, but at least he's not afraid of anyone.
6. Medvedev - improving on all surfaces and in his prime.
7. Hurkacz - his serve should win him enough matches, and he should be better on grass next year.
8. Paul - he's in his prime and might sneak in.
9. Shelton - we'll see if he lives up to his promise.
10. de Minaur - competes every match, in his prime, and is a tough out.

 

[nolefam_2024]

In no particular order, and subject to change before December 31st:

1. Djokovic - unfortunately.
2. Alcaraz - hard to tell if he'll fall to the middle of the pack or win three majors next year.
3. Zverev - barring off-court problems.
4. Sinner - entering his prime.
5. Rune - he's at times hard to take, but at least he's not afraid of anyone.
6. Medvedev - improving on all surfaces and in his prime.
7. Hurkacz - his serve should win him enough matches, and he should be better on grass next year.
8. Paul - he's in his prime and might sneak in.
9. Shelton - we'll see if he lives up to his promise.
10. de Minaur - competes every match, in his prime, and is a tough out.

Zverev is not going top 3. At all. These guys Nole and Raz will bully the pusher. And then there are 3 to 4 guys who will keep beating the pusher.

Hurkacz might not get to top 7. Post USOpen results are very deceptive.

Paul most likely will not be top 10. There are so many better players.

Tsitsipas has 100% more chance to be top 10 next year end than Paul.

 

[Beacon Hill]

Zverev is not going top 3. At all. These guys Nole and Raz will bully the pusher. And then there are 3 to 4 guys who will keep beating the pusher.

Hurkacz might not get to top 7. Post USOpen results are very deceptive.

Paul most likely will not be top 10. There are so many better players.

Tsitsipas has 100% more chance to be top 10 next year end than Paul.

I didn't suggest Zverev would be Top 3 or Hurkacz Top 7.
There are better players than Paul peak performance, but he is very professional and consistent so he's my dark horse to sneak in like Fritz did this year.
Tsitsipas is a betting favorite to finish Top 10, but you have to expect at least one player will unexpectedly drop down, and he's my pick to do that. Whether he'll get injured, lack focus, or just have some bad early losses in big tournaments, I have a feeling he might fall in the rankings. I felt that way about Felix last year at this time.

 

[dking68]

In no particular order, and subject to change before December 31st:

1. Djokovic - unfortunately.
2. Alcaraz - hard to tell if he'll fall to the middle of the pack or win three majors next year.
3. Zverev - barring off-court problems.
4. Sinner - entering his prime.
5. Rune - he's at times hard to take, but at least he's not afraid of anyone.
6. Medvedev - improving on all surfaces and in his prime.
7. Hurkacz - his serve should win him enough matches, and he should be better on grass next year.
8. Paul - he's in his prime and might sneak in.
9. Shelton - we'll see if he lives up to his promise.
10. de Minaur - competes every match, in his prime, and is a tough out.

Zverev ahead of Sinner, good luck. Zverev’s best season was 80% win rate in 2021 and Sinner at age 22 has equaled that this season, and has gotten better.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I didn't suggest Zverev would be Top 3 or Hurkacz Top 7.
There are better players than Paul peak performance, but he is very professional and consistent so he's my dark horse to sneak in like Fritz did this year.
Tsitsipas is a betting favorite to finish Top 10, but you have to expect at least one player will unexpectedly drop down, and he's my pick to do that. Whether he'll get injured, lack focus, or just have some bad early losses in big tournaments, I have a feeling he might fall in the rankings. I felt that way about Felix last year at this time.

I did not read no particular order, then makes sense. Zverev will definitely finish top 10 but most likely he will be outside top 5.

 

[Beacon Hill]

Zverev ahead of Sinner, good luck. Zverev’s best season was 80% win rate in 2021 and Sinner at age 22 has equaled that this season, and has gotten better.

Read the sentence before my list
Who are your picks?

 

[DSH]

Zverev ahead of Sinner, good luck. Zverev’s best season was 80% win rate in 2021 and Sinner at age 22 has equaled that this season, and has gotten better.

Sinner and Alcaraz will be top 2 next season.

 

[dking68]

Read the sentence before my list
Who are your picks?

I have no idea but Alcaraz and Sinner are top three for sure, along with Djokovic

 

[Beacon Hill]

I have no idea but Alcaraz and Sinner are top three for sure, along with Djokovic

You've made 8 posts on this thread weighing in on everyone's picks, yet you have no idea?

 

[Cortana]

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Djokovic
4. Rune

 

[socallefty]

This seems to indicate vulnerability for Rune and Rublev falling out of the top 8 next year as they are not amongst the leaders on the serve leaderboard also.

 

[Beacon Hill]

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Djokovic
4. Rune

6 more picks to go

 

[Beacon Hill]

The writing is on the wall for tsitsipas to fall out of the top 10 after the AO and I don’t see him getting back in!

His injury makes this even more likely.

 

[DSH]

His injury makes this even more likely.

That guy deserves to get out of the top 10.
What he has done in this tournament is an example of a person without any respect for anyone.

 

[chrischris]

Novak, Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune & Zverev seem like safe picks to me.

Rublev, Medvedev and Tsitsipas round out likely contenders.

To have 8 returning Top 10 is not unheard of but rarer than many here may think.

Anywho I'll be a coward and stick with those plus:

Felix back in the fold.
Arthur Fils my wildcard.

Shelton.

 

[KantenKlaar]

Shelton.

Yesss, Shelton! I actually got banned from "my thread" today for just mentioning Shelton. Weird. So, yes Shelton is a contender for 2024 and I look forward to seeing him evolve and take his place next to Alaraz, Sinner and Rune.

 

[TripleATeam]

1. Alcaraz (his W/L this year was 65-12. No slam performance worse than a SF, and one of those was decided on poor conditioning. No chance at a repeat. His consistency will put him at the top, and his willingness to learn will cement it)
2. Djokovic (He'll put up great numbers in several events, just won't play enough to be #1 ultimately)
3. Sinner (Looked great at times in this final stretch, plus just made QF then SF at Wimbledon (2 losses to Djokovic). Could use some more consistency, but he's getting there)
4. Medvedev (unparalleled consistency, but needs a higher gear at the top. Don't expect too much of an improvement on his results this year, but outside chance at a slam)
5. Rune (I see some deeper runs but also some walkabouts. Lot of potential, just needs to harness it)
6. Zverev (Still recovering, but his best is still fantastic. We'll see if he manages to get back)
7. Rublev (Doesn't have that peak level he needs to be in the top 5 all the time. He'll fluctuate between 5-10, but stay there solidly)
8. Tsitsipas (Say what you will, he still made 4 M1000 QFs last year, and that was his worst year in a while. Unfortunately it looks like he's trending down, so I think 2024 will be a low point before a bounce-back 2025)
9. Shelton (Got talent, maybe finds consistency)
10. Hurkacz (he's good, might be Fritz too. #9 and #10 feel up for grabs honestly, just a couple fluke victories could put someone over the edge)

 

[Aabye5]

1. Alcaraz (his W/L this year was 65-12. No slam performance worse than a SF, and one of those was decided on poor conditioning. No chance at a repeat. His consistency will put him at the top, and his willingness to learn will cement it)
2. Djokovic (He'll put up great numbers in several events, just won't play enough to be #1 ultimately)
3. Sinner (Looked great at times in this final stretch, plus just made QF then SF at Wimbledon (2 losses to Djokovic). Could use some more consistency, but he's getting there)
4. Medvedev (unparalleled consistency, but needs a higher gear at the top. Don't expect too much of an improvement on his results this year, but outside chance at a slam)
5. Rune (I see some deeper runs but also some walkabouts. Lot of potential, just needs to harness it)
6. Zverev (Still recovering, but his best is still fantastic. We'll see if he manages to get back)
7. Rublev (Doesn't have that peak level he needs to be in the top 5 all the time. He'll fluctuate between 5-10, but stay there solidly)
8. Tsitsipas (Say what you will, he still made 4 M1000 QFs last year, and that was his worst year in a while. Unfortunately it looks like he's trending down, so I think 2024 will be a low point before a bounce-back 2025)
9. Shelton (Got talent, maybe finds consistency)
10. Hurkacz (he's good, might be Fritz too. #9 and #10 feel up for grabs honestly, just a couple fluke victories could put someone over the edge)

Really like the explanations.

 

[BeatlesFan]

1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Sinner
4. Holger
5. Med
6. Rublev
7. Zedrot
8. Hurcasz
9. Tsitsipas
10. Dimitrov

 

[Aabye5]

1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Sinner
4. Holger
5. Med
6. Rublev
7. Zedrot
8. Hurcasz
9. Tsitsipas
10. Dimitrov

The Dimitrov love around here astounds me, but to see him have a great year would be well worth it.

 

[dking68]

1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Sinner
4. Holger
5. Med
6. Rublev
7. Zedrot
8. Hurcasz
9. Tsitsipas
10. Dimitrov

Rune is not going to be that close to Sinner

 

[BeatlesFan]

The Dimitrov love around here astounds me, but to see him have a great year would be well worth it.

I've never been his fan, but he's always fit, he had some good wins this year and is ranked #14. I just couldn't put Fritz in the top 10 and firmly don't believe Shelton will be top 10 next year at all. Dimitrov will win 1-2 tournaments next year.

 

[Baseline_Bungle]

Benny the phone guy will dial in and crack the top 10 for the first time. Year end? Not sure, with the big USO bounty to defend, but it's a possibility.

Watch for Joey Fonseca to make some serious noise. Top 10 may be a few years away, but that's where he's headed.

 

[dking68]

Benny the phone guy will dial in and crack the top 10 for the first time. Year end? Not sure, with the big USO bounty to defend, but it's a possibility.

Watch for Joey Fonseca to make some serious noise. Top 10 may be a few years away, but that's where he's headed.

Sinner to end top three?

 

[Baseline_Bungle]

Sinner to end top three?

We'll see! I'd hate to jinx it... I'll leave the triumphal predictions to you