Who will have a better 2024, Alcaraz or Sinner?
- Thread starter RG GOD
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dking68
G.O.A.T.
I think Sinner will be stronger in the long run when he overcomes the mental and physical hurdle. I don’t see a long career for Alcaraz
RG GOD
Semi-Pro
Don't think so.
Alcaraz is better than Sinner in clay and grass.
And Carlos didn't play in Australia in 2023. That's a lot of points.
The Sinner
Semi-Pro
Yes but Sinner had a better tail end of the season than Alcaraz, therefore going by form, not to mention two victories over Djokovic, you‘d have to give the edge to the Italian .
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
It’s hard to say as of now.
The argument for Alcaraz is he’s proven he can do it and already won 2. He has proven himself better in BO5.
The argument for Sinner is he’s in much better form right now and will likely start 2024 with more confidence and momentum.
I lot with depend on how Sinner improves his fitness to hold up better in the longer matches and add bit more variety at times. Alcaraz needs to work on the serve and just get his mental edge back he lost. As well as cut down the silly errors at times.
I’d give the slight edge to Alcaraz due to recent history at slams but if Sinner starts showing it in slams then it can easily tilt to him.
I think Sinner can potentially do better in both HC slams next season if his body holds up and gets a decent draw. I expect Alcaraz to be better on the neutral surfaces again.
It’s going to be interesting for sure.
The argument for Alcaraz is he’s proven he can do it and already won 2. He has proven himself better in BO5.
The argument for Sinner is he’s in much better form right now and will likely start 2024 with more confidence and momentum.
I lot with depend on how Sinner improves his fitness to hold up better in the longer matches and add bit more variety at times. Alcaraz needs to work on the serve and just get his mental edge back he lost. As well as cut down the silly errors at times.
I’d give the slight edge to Alcaraz due to recent history at slams but if Sinner starts showing it in slams then it can easily tilt to him.
I think Sinner can potentially do better in both HC slams next season if his body holds up and gets a decent draw. I expect Alcaraz to be better on the neutral surfaces again.
It’s going to be interesting for sure.
Hitman
Bionic Poster
I can see that happening, Alcaraz is more injury prone. Lets hope not, I want these guys to have fantastic careers and build epic rivalries.
Hitman
Bionic Poster
The form of Sinner is good yes, but that doesn't always mean he wins slams. Alcaraz is a proven slam winner, has two slams on two different surfaces, and honestly, he is probably the favorite for RG next year.
CoolCoolCool
Hall of Fame
Heart says Sinner, head says Raz.
dking68
G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz won’t defend Wimbledon if Sinner continues to improve his serve - he’s ranked #9 in serve compared to #34 in 2022
dking68
G.O.A.T.
If Sinner sweeps the hardcourt masters both outdoors and indoors. I can’t see Alcaraz finishing above Sinner in rankings. Most tournaments are hard courts and Sinner is a level ahead on hard courts. He’s won 84% of his matches (48-9) on hard court this year (Better than Medvedev!, who is 49-12) and if he improves that to around 87-90% next year it’s impossible for Alcaraz to finish higher ranked. So I’ll go with Sinner
Alcaraz lost a bit of the aura he had when he was n.1.
Becker might be right in that other players are starting to see the holes in his game and are exploiting it.
While Sinner in the last few months exploded like a chain reaction of an atomic bomb and no one knows how far it will go.
Becker might be right in that other players are starting to see the holes in his game and are exploiting it.
While Sinner in the last few months exploded like a chain reaction of an atomic bomb and no one knows how far it will go.
dking68
G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz may be lightning fast - but we know those legs won’t last forever. His play style is very unsustainable. He gets moved around by Sinner like a rat and his coach hasn’t been able to find an effective tactic against Sinner, why? Because of Sinners ballstriking. The ball comes back so fast, his forehand is rushed and he’s unable to deploy the dropshot. Now it’s going to be even harder for Alcaraz as Sinner now has a better serve than he does and a better return. I see a disappointing season for Alcaraz and ends the year ranked as #3
djokovic the conqueror
Hall of Fame
Sinner. He's getting better while Alcaraz is getting worse over time. Alcaraz might not even be in the top 10 by the end of 2024. The ATP is figuring him out.
McGradey
Hall of Fame
Sinner hasn’t had the legs to make a dent in the slams yet, and as much as he is greatly improved in best of 3, I am not sure that best of 5 dynamic changes all of a sudden. He looked gassed in the Tour Finals decider, which requires a lot less tennis than a slam win.
So far the higher level player has been Alcaraz, and I expect him to bounce back after a rest.
So far the higher level player has been Alcaraz, and I expect him to bounce back after a rest.
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RG GOD
Semi-Pro
Alcaraz is 20 years, 2 years younger than Sinner, and he already has a much better career.
Alcaraz still has a lot to improve, more than Sinner, Carlos has a higher ceiling.
RG GOD
Semi-Pro
No, Alcaraz is 2 years younger.
The Sinner
Semi-Pro
Quite possibly, yes.
The Sinner
Semi-Pro
The difference in age between the two rivalries is only nine months, lol.
accidental
Hall of Fame
Sinner’s two biggest wins this year were against Alex De Minaur
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
I’m a little bit worried that Sinner might perform a little too good at the Australian open and win it if his momentum keeps up
AgassiSuperSlam11
Hall of Fame
First put down the phone THEN end the thread.
Pheasant
Legend
It will be very interesting for Sinner. His 27 point jump in the service rankings from 2022 to 2023 makes him very scary. I might very well pick Sinner for 2024. He’s had some very impressive wins lately. That’s a controversial pick, due to how good Carlos has been at slams. But Sinner’s improvement has been quite impressive.
Will Sinner become another Zverev; a dangerous guy in a best of 3 setup? Or will he make that quantum leap to also become dangerous in best of 5 tourneys?
I’m going for the latter.
Ok. You’ve sold me. I’m picking Sinner ahead of Carlos in the 2024 rankings.
BeanTownCoolCat
New User
By claiming Raz as 2024 year-end #3, I assume you expect Djoker and Sinner at 1 and 2?
It’s very unlikely Djoker will finish 2024 as YE#1 because his priority as a 37 yrs old player. He pretty much gave up 2023 YE#1 before Asian swing except receiving a pleasant surprise Raz didn’t do well there (Beijing-500 & Shanghai-1000), and even worse result back to European indoor season.
I could see Raz and Sinner finishing 1 and 2 at 2024 year-end (not necessarily in that order), with Djokovic ending 2024 as #3 with total of 25 or (at most) 26 GS titles.
Why would he overcome physical struggles that continue to exist but not Alcaraz? Because he's shorter? If Sinner was tall enough, shouldn't he have already proven himself to be physically superior to Raz?
Mivic
Hall of Fame
I don’t really trust the fall season when it comes to projecting future breakthrough slam performances (particularly these days because some of the year end conditions in recent years have been absolutely rapid, a huge change-up from the rest of the season) and don’t yet believe that Sinner has the point ending efficiency in the serve + forehand department to seriously trouble Djokovic in particular when the tour moves back to the slower outdoor surfaces over 5 sets, plus I don’t have a great deal of faith in his physicality or fitness either.
He’s clearly a very proficient ballstriker and the still indoor conditions accentuate his one-two punch nicely, but I think he needs to continue to build on his recent service improvements (which will come under harsher scrutiny when the tour moves outdoors again) and develop a more overwhelming and varied weapon in the forehand (because Djokovic still seems to be outduelling him in that department more often than not) while getting stronger from a physical standpoint (where he still looks shaky) so that he can sustain his level in order to truly threaten in Bo5. I don’t think he’s capable of playing at the level required in successive tough matches over the course of a slam at this stage. Alcaraz on the other hand is already a proven threat at slam level on multiple surfaces.
As for his recent results, the Djokovic wins were obviously impressive but they weren’t exactly dominant. Novak had DR > 1.1 in both and won the most important match in the series (where Sinner also looked kind of spent mentally and physically, which isn’t a great sign if you’re projecting him as an imminent slam threat). Plus it’s not like we’ve never seen Djokovic lose to younger guys late in the season in Bo3 only to pick up where he left off in the slams a few months later.
I also think Alcaraz is a pretty safe bet to do well on clay next year where the field is quite weak just because of his physical advantages, while Sinner is going to have to make his breakthrough on hard or grass and I just see that being a taller task for him at the moment, not least because Djokovic is significantly stronger on those surfaces. Alcaraz also just flat out has bigger advantages and more margin over the field on clay than Sinner does on hard and grass due to his physicality, which is heavily rewarded on the dirt.
He’s clearly a very proficient ballstriker and the still indoor conditions accentuate his one-two punch nicely, but I think he needs to continue to build on his recent service improvements (which will come under harsher scrutiny when the tour moves outdoors again) and develop a more overwhelming and varied weapon in the forehand (because Djokovic still seems to be outduelling him in that department more often than not) while getting stronger from a physical standpoint (where he still looks shaky) so that he can sustain his level in order to truly threaten in Bo5. I don’t think he’s capable of playing at the level required in successive tough matches over the course of a slam at this stage. Alcaraz on the other hand is already a proven threat at slam level on multiple surfaces.
As for his recent results, the Djokovic wins were obviously impressive but they weren’t exactly dominant. Novak had DR > 1.1 in both and won the most important match in the series (where Sinner also looked kind of spent mentally and physically, which isn’t a great sign if you’re projecting him as an imminent slam threat). Plus it’s not like we’ve never seen Djokovic lose to younger guys late in the season in Bo3 only to pick up where he left off in the slams a few months later.
I also think Alcaraz is a pretty safe bet to do well on clay next year where the field is quite weak just because of his physical advantages, while Sinner is going to have to make his breakthrough on hard or grass and I just see that being a taller task for him at the moment, not least because Djokovic is significantly stronger on those surfaces. Alcaraz also just flat out has bigger advantages and more margin over the field on clay than Sinner does on hard and grass due to his physicality, which is heavily rewarded on the dirt.
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If it were to go the Rafa-Nole way and the younger player becomes "better" (2 years in this case), then my-my!
ppma
Hall of Fame
Alcaraz is already proven material.
In general, I think he will have a better 2024.
* He's plenty of points to win in AO and its previous satellite events.
* I think Sinner will do slightly better in clay, but doubt it will be meaningful.
* If healthy, Carlos runs in clay might be better than 2023's
* Same for grass, but I doubt Carlos is able to defend the Wim title here.
* From august up to the end of the year, Carlos has not added many points in 2023. Even when I do not think Sinner will be able to scratch enough at this stage to contend Carlos in the rankings, the situation will be similar to the start of the years. Many points to defend from Sinner and many to win for Carlos.
In general, I think he will have a better 2024.
* He's plenty of points to win in AO and its previous satellite events.
* I think Sinner will do slightly better in clay, but doubt it will be meaningful.
* If healthy, Carlos runs in clay might be better than 2023's
* Same for grass, but I doubt Carlos is able to defend the Wim title here.
* From august up to the end of the year, Carlos has not added many points in 2023. Even when I do not think Sinner will be able to scratch enough at this stage to contend Carlos in the rankings, the situation will be similar to the start of the years. Many points to defend from Sinner and many to win for Carlos.
This.
So far the impression is that Sinner fails on the most important scene, like we have seen vs Djokovic twice at Wimbledon, and the tour finals
Tough call, a zero slam winner vs two 20+ winners.
dking68
G.O.A.T.
People haven’t realized how much Sinner has improved in comparison to Carlos.
He’s currently ranked:
#3 in return games won
#5 in service holds
The only other person who’s ranked in the top five in those two categories is Djokovic. I honestly can’t see Carlos finishing ahead of Sinner in 2024.
Service games won
Return games won
@Pheasant Sinner is slowly turning into a monster under Cahill. I really think Sinner has surpassed Carlos. The rankings will soon show it
He’s currently ranked:
#3 in return games won
#5 in service holds
The only other person who’s ranked in the top five in those two categories is Djokovic. I honestly can’t see Carlos finishing ahead of Sinner in 2024.
Service games won
Return games won
@Pheasant Sinner is slowly turning into a monster under Cahill. I really think Sinner has surpassed Carlos. The rankings will soon show it
So far he has one slam SF, and he was recently chanceless vs Djokovic in the tour finals. Facing Djokovic in round robin and Davis Cup isnt the same as slams/tour finals. Lets wait and see.
dking68
G.O.A.T.
Federer hadn’t been past the QF in all the other slams except for his maiden Wimbledon title at Sinner’s exact age. Sinner could really come into his own in 2024. The only two things stopping him are fitness and belief. I think he’s a better player than Carlos now and he will be in the long haul.
Hope youre right. Tour finals was a huge dissappointment though, shows he is far from ready for the big stage. Couldnt challenge Djokovic at all.
dking68
G.O.A.T.
I agree but at some point I believe he’ll overcome the mental hurdle. How I see it - the more he plays Djokovic and the more he’s crushing him in best of threes, the more belief he’ll gather to cross the line in a best of five. Id actually prefer Sinner to play Djokovic in a semi than a final
Impetus
Semi-Pro
People have a very short term memory.
If the same question had been asked 6 months ago 90% of the votes would have been on Alcaraz and people would have been screeming it should be Rune and not Sinner in the vote.
Very few players can constantly be on the best level.
Alcaraz (and Rune) has a higher roof than Sinner. Sinner might have the benifit of stability but it"s way to early to know in the long run.
TT should be devided in two main areas. Predictions and present.
This threat would fall into the category of prophets, oracles, ouija boards, intuition, dream interpretation and numerology.
If the same question had been asked 6 months ago 90% of the votes would have been on Alcaraz and people would have been screeming it should be Rune and not Sinner in the vote.
Very few players can constantly be on the best level.
Alcaraz (and Rune) has a higher roof than Sinner. Sinner might have the benifit of stability but it"s way to early to know in the long run.
TT should be devided in two main areas. Predictions and present.
This threat would fall into the category of prophets, oracles, ouija boards, intuition, dream interpretation and numerology.
Alcaraz just had a short burst in 2023 where he performed great winning W and Masters. He peaked early and he's been sh*t post W losing 8 consecutive tournaments in a row after being handed no 1 only to hand it back to Djokovic. He ended 2023 quite poorly.
Sinner finished the year on a high winning his Davis cup slowly reaching his peak. He should've won ATP Finals had he been smart enough with his matches.
So, it has to be Sinner going forward taking that confidence to AO.
Nadal is back for FO. So, it is between Djokovic, Alcaraz & Nadal at the FO.
W is where Alcaraz is the slight favourite as the defending champion but Djokovic will be out for revenge.
USO is between Sinner, Djokovic and Medvedev.
Don't forget. There's Rune under Becker who could throw a few surprises.
Damn. If Alcaraz ranked 10 in service games won still finished the year as a slam champion plus semifinalist at the other two slams, I wonder how it would turn out if he is top 5 like peak Sinner in 2024.
dking68
G.O.A.T.
Yes exactly. The only thing stopping Sinner from not surpassing Alcaraz next season is the physicality and his mental belief. He has all the tools to snatch the #2 ranking from him. Already a level ahead on hard court, I think he could be the one to prevent Alcaraz from defending his Wimbledon title if he continues to improve his serve like he has.
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
Alcaraz has already been there, done that. My personal take is quite unchanged from a year ago. Alcaraz was the more rounded and mature player at 20 than Sinner at 21 but had less room to improve.
Sinner has been held back by a lack of athleticism, first serves, hand skills and tennis brain. All of them have been improving since his Bergamo win, but Alcaraz was always superior in three out of four. Actually he served also more reliably in his big runs. Jannik has two big advantages compared to Charlie, easy power and height.
In years to come Jannik might become one, if not the hardest guy to break on the tour. Here we have the top guys in holding percentage on hardcourt. He is holding 88% of his game but Is clearly the second best at winning hardcourt games after the mighty Novak which is off the charts. I would argue that Jannik has still a lot more serve potential than Charlie. Combined with his weight of shot I'm quite certain that he will be among the top 3 in the next two years in this regard.
Sinner has been held back by a lack of athleticism, first serves, hand skills and tennis brain. All of them have been improving since his Bergamo win, but Alcaraz was always superior in three out of four. Actually he served also more reliably in his big runs. Jannik has two big advantages compared to Charlie, easy power and height.
In years to come Jannik might become one, if not the hardest guy to break on the tour. Here we have the top guys in holding percentage on hardcourt. He is holding 88% of his game but Is clearly the second best at winning hardcourt games after the mighty Novak which is off the charts. I would argue that Jannik has still a lot more serve potential than Charlie. Combined with his weight of shot I'm quite certain that he will be among the top 3 in the next two years in this regard.
| Rk | Player | M W% | SPW | SPW-InP | Ace% | DF/2s | 1stIn | 1st% | 2nd% | 2%-InP | Hld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic [SRB] | 94.9% | 71.2% | 71.4% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 62.4% | 79.1% | 57.9% | 65.1% | 90.8% |
| 6 | Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE] | 65.1% | 70.0% | 68.2% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 63.4% | 78.2% | 55.9% | 60.2% | 89.7% |
| 19 | Nicolas Jarry [CHI] | 66.7% | 69.5% | 67.4% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 65.0% | 78.1% | 53.5% | 57.9% | 88.9% |
| 23 | Tallon Griekspoor [NED] | 61.9% | 68.3% | 67.4% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 62.8% | 77.6% | 52.5% | 59.6% | 88.5% |
| 10 | Taylor Fritz [USA] | 75.0% | 69.2% | 66.9% | 13.0% | 7.4% | 60.1% | 79.5% | 53.7% | 57.9% | 88.5% |
| 4 | Jannik Sinner [ITA] | 83.0% | 68.1% | 67.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 60.0% | 76.6% | 55.4% | 58.9% | 88.0% |
| 9 | Hubert Hurkacz [POL] | 70.8% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 17.5% | 5.5% | 65.1% | 79.3% | 51.1% | 54.1% | 87.9% |
| 3 | Daniil Medvedev [RUS] | 81.7% | 66.8% | 67.3% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 64.2% | 76.3% | 49.9% | 58.8% | 86.3% |
| 17 | Ben Shelton [USA] | 58.3% | 68.1% | 67.5% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 64.3% | 76.3% | 53.4% | 62.0% | 86.2% |
| 24 | Sebastian Korda [USA] | 66.7% | 67.3% | 65.2% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 62.0% | 75.5% | 53.9% | 57.9% | 85.9% |
| 16 | Frances Tiafoe [USA] | 61.5% | 67.4% | 65.5% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 59.9% | 76.7% | 53.5% | 57.7% | 85.8% |
| 34 | Christopher Eubanks [USA] | 51.5% | 66.9% | 64.0% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 67.6% | 72.7% | 54.8% | 60.7% | 85.5% |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] | 75.7% | 66.9% | 67.1% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 65.1% | 72.3% | 56.9% | 62.2% | 85.3% |
| 36 | Arthur Fils [FRA] | 56.5% | 65.4% | 65.5% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 62.1% | 75.8% | 48.5% | 55.3% | 85.0% |
| 29 | Felix Auger Aliassime [CAN] | 58.3% | 66.5% | 66.4% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 60.1% | 78.0% | 49.2% | 57.4% | 84.7% |
| Average | 60.4% | 65.8% | 64.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 62.5% | 74.1% | 52.0% | 57.2% | 83.2% |
I have no doubt in Alcaraz being the one to primarily stop him from defending the title.
Sinner could well be a slam winner in a few months but it also stands to reason that Alcaraz who gets closer to his returning stats on service will win multiple grandslams with relative ease -- especially now that he has the time to work on his game in a true off-season.
dking68
G.O.A.T.
You see him reaching #2 next season based on this?
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