Who will the next first time Slam winner?

Who will the next first time Slam winner?

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CDNguy87

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Who will be the next first time Slam winner?

With Murray finally breaking through at the USO, I think it's very interesting trying to predict who will be the next guy to win their first Slam. There's really no obvious favourite at this point, but several players who have decent potential if they get a dream draw and/or some of the Big 4 get hurt or upset. It's amazing how infrequently a new Slam winner has emerged over the last 8-10 years. The most recent are:

Murray- 2012 USO
Delpo- 2009 USO
Djoker- 2008 AO
Nadal- 2005 RG

With the way the Big 4 have continued their dominance, you have to wonder if it'll be another 3 years before we get a new winner. Anyway, I've tried my best to narrow down the poll question to the 9 most likely candidates, but this is obviously very arbitrary and imperfect (hence there's an "Other" option). I've basically taken the 3 non-Slam winners in the Top 8 (all of whom have been consistently ranked high over the last few years) along with the 6 young players that I feel have the most potential medium-term upside. Here's what I came up:

Ferrer- Age: 30, Current Ranking: 4, Best GS Result: SF
Berdych- Age: 27, Current Ranking: 6, Best GS Result: Final
Tsonga- Age: 27, Current Ranking: 8, Best GS Result: Final
Raonic- Age: 22, Current Ranking: 16, Best GS Result: R16
Nishikori- Age: 23, Current Ranking: 23, Best GS Result: QF
Janowicz- Age: 22, Current Ranking: 26, Best GS Result: R32
Dimitrov- Age: 21, Current Ranking: 33, Best GS Result: R64
Tomic- Age: 20, Current Ranking: 43, Best GS Result: QF
Harrison- Age: 20, Current Ranking: 77, Best GS Result: R64

Some Wild Cards who may in theory have long-shot Slam potential but aren't included in the poll: Cilic, Almagro, Isner, Dolgopolov, Soderling (if he ever comes back?).

Of course, there's also a ton of even younger players who could in theory pull a Nadal and take one at age 19 in the next 2-3 years, but that would be a bit much to look into at this point.

Related question: When and at what Slam do you think the next first-time winner will most likely emerge?
 
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I don't see anyone outside Federer-Djokovic-Murray-Nadal winning a GS in 2013.

In the following years...out of those nine you mention:

Ferrer: no chance. He is already 30 and that is not the worst thing, but that he is mentally unable to defeat one of the big-4 in a GS final (if he ever gets to a GS final). And seriously, I see no chance of him getting to a GS final and facing a NON-big-4 there.

Berdych and Tsonga: They could, potential-wise. Their absolutely peak game is maybe able to defeat one of the big-4 in a GS final, but they both are mentally weak players and they would wilt in a GS final against any of the big-4 players.(Tsonga did play great in his sole GS final against Djoker in 2008 AusOpen, but back then Djoker had not "the aura" of current Djokovic).

The six youngsters: maybe Raonic or Tomic or Janowicz if everything falls in the right place for them during a GS in 2014 or 2015 or later...

I would love to see a new GS champion soon. Surprising stories in tennis are good for the health of the game.

But I think it will not happen in 2013 neither in 2014.
 
My thoughts: it's looking as if Federer and Nadal are declining more rapidly than Djoker and Murray at this point. Looking at recent Slam results, Fedal have dominated the natural surface slams (2011 Wimbledon being the lone exception) while Djokovic and Murray have starting owning the HC slams (5 in a row between them). Therefore, I'm inclined to think the next breakthrough will happen at RG or Wimbledon, while Djokurray continue dominating the HC ones.

If Nadal doesn't come back to 100%, then Djokovic becomes the obvious favourite for RG and should have a chance to dominate there over the next 2-3 years. However, if Djokovic's level also drops or he gets hurt, then the FO would be surprisingly wide open for a new winner given Fed's age and Murray's clay weaknesses.

However, I think Wimbledon is probably the best bet. Even though Djokovic won it in 2011, he was very fortunate that Tsonga took out Federer (who was in form) and that he got a less than 100% Nadal, who he completed owned that year, in the final. I think it's very likely Federer would have beaten Djoker in the Wimby SFs, similar to last year. Grass is clearly Djokovic's weakest surface and I would honestly be surprised if he wins another Wimbledon. Murray is a bit more formidable on grass, but he's still far from dominant on it and he obviously has huge pressure at Wimbledon along with his other mental weaknesses.

Therefore, my prediction is that we get a new Slam winner probably at Wimbledon in 2014-2015 (Fed or Murray will likely take it this year). I think there will be a real opening for a big-hitting, big-serving young player to take it as the Big 4 stagnate or decline over the next couple of years.

My best guess would be Raonic for this. In the best case scenario, I think he can move up to #6-#8 by the end of this year (finishing in the Berdych-Tsonga range) and then legitimately compete for a Wimbledon title in 2014-2015. But there are at least a couple of other young players who could pull this off as well.
 
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mattennis said:
I don't see anyone outside Federer-Djokovic-Murray-Nadal winning a GS in 2013.
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I agree 100%.

mattennis said:
In the following years...out of those nine you mention:

Ferrer: no chance. He is already 30 and that is not the worst thing, but that he is mentally unable to defeat one of the big-4 in a GS final (if he ever gets to a GS final). And seriously, I see no chance of him getting to a GS final and facing a NON-big-4 there.

Berdych and Tsonga: They could, potential-wise. Their absolutely peak game is maybe able to defeat one of the big-4 in a GS final, but they both are mentally weak players and they would wilt in a GS final against any of the big-4 players.(Tsonga did play great in his sole GS final against Djoker in 2008 AusOpen, but back then Djoker had not "the aura" of current Djokovic).
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Age is also not on either of their sides. I'd guess the window for Berdych and Tsonga winning a Slam is around 1-2 years, but unfortunately they'll also have at the very least Djoker and Murray who are at/near their primes to contend with. They could obviously get lucky with the draw or upsets (i.e: Nadal getting injured, Federer getting upset, one of Djoker or Murray also stumbling), but I wouldn't bet on it.


mattennis said:
I would love to see a new GS champion soon. Surprising stories in tennis are good for the health of the game.

But I think it will not happen in 2013 neither in 2014.
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I definitely think tennis could use some new blood at this point. As mentioned, for 2013 I think we'll see the Big 4 sweep the Slams again, but a lot can happen between now and the summer of 2014. Nadal will turn 28 that year while Djoker and Murray will turn 27, which is around the age where'd you typically see players at their level start to decline or show signs of wear-and-tear.

I would honestly be truly shocked if there wasn't a new Slam winner between now and the 2015 USO. Maybe the Big 4 + Delpo can maintain the monopoly for 2013-2014, but I'm almost certain someone new will finally breakthrough at a Slam in 2015 at the latest.
 
Tsonga has the best chance right now. But if Nishikori remains healthy, he can notch a win in 2 years. I maybe wrong, but his game reminds me of Agassi. He appears to have a nice compact game, and with good mental fortitude. His health is in question tho'. Raonic and Janowicz are too inconsistent right now, and so is Tomic.

Berdych on the otherhand has the game to win one. But with the top 4/5 being there right now, no chance.

Fedderer will win one or two in the next 3 years, Djoko and Muzza , possibly Delpo will take most of it and depending on where Rafa's game turns out, he may or may not be in the mix. Just my 3 cents.............:twisted:


PS: Harrison should not be in that poll. Goffin, Bedene and Querrey has a better game than him.
 
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SLD76 said:
the next first time slam winner will be murray, as some here dont count his 2012 USO
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Yeah, well I guess for those 'some here', no first time Slam will ever count for Murray so I think we can safely ignore them!

Anyway, back to the real discussion:

It's really difficult to say at the moment as all the non-Slam top 10ers are ageing. By the time all the current Slam winners start to get past their peaks and begin to decline, so will most of the rest of the current top 10 all of whom, except for Del Potro, are older than the Big 4.

So realistically, I think we're looking to the younger generation to step up to the plate. By that time, I'm thinking Raonic and Tomic at least may have finally matured into potential Slam winners and possibly Dimitrov and Janowicz. Can't really see anybody else at this moment in time.
 
kalyan4fedever said:
hahah right on he will first legit slam winner
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Haha - you're bang on mate. Also, I make it that Roger has 2 legit slam wins - when he beat Rafa in the finals of Wimby.

The rest obviously have an asterisk next to them, given the no-hopers he had to play.
 
Voted for big Jo Tsonga. Needs a tournament to go just right for him though and to put a couple of big wins together. Get a bit tougher and meaner on the mental side of the game, imho.
 
IMO Tsonga at Wimbly is the most likely. He's been in the SF for the past 2 years and given a good draw (and if he plays well) he can win it. He's unlikely to do it at the AO because Djokovic and Murray are just too hard to beat on slow hard courts.
 
All joking aside, if I had to choose one -it would be Berdych. I don't think it will happen though.
 
I don't think anyone in the Top 100 aside from Federer/Nadal/Djokovic/Murray/Del Potro will ever win a slam (is Hewitt still in the Top 100)?

Maybe Tomic, if he can get his head screwed on straight. That's a big time question mark, though.

Other than that, I think the next first time slam winner will be someone currently in the juniors.
 
I think Tsonga has the best chance to do it in 2013. However, I don't think he will. A big distance between "best chance" and actuallly doing it.

My pick would almost certainly come from the young guys who should be hitting their peak when the other guys are exiting theirs...Dimitrov, Janowicz, Raonic, Tomic, or some other young rising star.

Harrison I haven't really watched enough. Nishikori is a very talented player, but he's inconsistent. Perhaps that's due to his proneness (is that a word) to injury, but until he stays healthy, we'll never know.

I agree with above...Ferrer has no chance outside of the Big 4 all getting hurt on the way to Roland Garros.
 
I prefer a brilliant player to win, than a player who would need a lot of things to go right for that to happen, like it's the case with everyone in the list IMO...
 
That's a great question.

Will it be someone right below the Big 4, like Tsonga or Berdych, or will it be someone completley "new" (meaning someone who though maybe ranked fairly high and talented has not really ever made a deep Slam run - like Raonic).

And, will it involve actually taking down multiple Big 4 guys, or will it be so far in the future that it only involves beating 1, or none?

There have always been dominant groups of players, but players from outside the group have always managed to slip through here or there on multiple occasions, or even regularly. But, this just has not happened with the current group, with one exception.

Since the 2005 French Open(!), only Del Potro has won a Slam, other than the Big 4.

Of course, before Murray won 2012 USO, the Big 3 had won all but 1 Slam (again, Del Potro's USO) from the 2005 FO to the 2012 Wimbledon.

Looking backward - from 2003 to 1980 and even earlier, and the variety of winners is relatively astounding by today's standard. I looked the Slam Champions table on Wiki and it was really never like this, at all, even with legends like Sampras, Borg and Laver have their dominant periods.
 
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Mainad said:
It's really difficult to say at the moment as all the non-Slam top 10ers are ageing. By the time all the current Slam winners start to get past their peaks and begin to decline, so will most of the rest of the current top 10 all of whom, except for Del Potro, are older than the Big 4.

So realistically, I think we're looking to the younger generation to step up to the plate. By that time, I'm thinking Raonic and Tomic at least may have finally matured into potential Slam winners and possibly Dimitrov and Janowicz. Can't really see anybody else at this moment in time.
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That's pretty much the line of reasoning I've used. Tsonga and Berdych will both be 28 this year, so their window is closing rapidly. Out of curiosity, when was the last time somebody 27+ broke through and won their first slam? I'm guessing you'd have to go all the way back to Ivanisevic, which shows how difficult (and IMO unlikely) their task will be.

Federer20042006 said:
I don't think anyone in the Top 100 aside from Federer/Nadal/Djokovic/Murray/Del Potro will ever win a slam (is Hewitt still in the Top 100)?

Maybe Tomic, if he can get his head screwed on straight. That's a big time question mark, though.

Other than that, I think the next first time slam winner will be someone currently in the juniors.
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I think that's taking it too far. In order for your post to be correct, you'd probably need the Big 4 + Delpo to continue sweeping the Slams for the next 4-5 years. That seems highly unlikely given how all of them are in their mid-late 20s now. They could certainly keep dominating for the next year or 2, but I wouldn't count on it going much beyond that.
 
CDNguy87 said:
That's pretty much the line of reasoning I've used. Tsonga and Berdych will both be 28 this year, so their window is closing rapidly. Out of curiosity, when was the last time somebody 27+ broke through and won their first slam? I'm guessing you'd have to go all the way back to Ivanisevic, which shows how difficult (and IMO unlikely) their task will be.



I think that's taking it too far. In order for your post to be correct, you'd probably need the Big 4 + Delpo to continue sweeping the Slams for the next 4-5 years. That seems highly unlikely given how all of them are in their mid-late 20s now. They could certainly keep dominating for the next year or 2, but I wouldn't count on it going much beyond that.
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movement was never berdych's strength and never will be........he wins with his brutal hitting sizing up to everything thrown at him from the other end.......he will just be the same player until he hits 31 or 32.......27 or 30 doesn't make too much difference to him.......tsonga, yes.......
 
Tomic with a quarterfinal already at 20 is looking significantly better than most of the people in his age group (including guys like Raonic and Janowicz). I don't really care for him at all and would rather see Raonic or especially Janowicz break through, but I think Tomic has the most potential of that group.

Of the older guys, Ferrer's got a shot at the French if Nadal doesn't get back to his old clay form. He'd still be hard-pressed to beat Djokovic and/or Federer there, but it's not impossible, especially if he gets a good draw.

Tsonga at Wimbledon is another possibility. When he's on, he can beat anybody. His main problem is sustaining that for multiple matches. If Nadal's still no. 5 at Wimbledon and Tsonga is drawn in Ferrer's quarter, then he's got a fairly easy road to the semis, at which point he just needs to channel his form in the 2011 quarterfinals for a couple days to take home the trophy!
 
Start da Game said:
movement was never berdych's strength and never will be........he wins with his brutal hitting sizing up to everything thrown at him from the other end.......he will just be the same player until he hits 31 or 32.......27 or 30 doesn't make too much difference to him.......tsonga, yes.......
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But surely wear-and-tear will catch up with him sooner or later? And given how's he been a Top 50 player who almost a decade, my guess would be sooner. In any case, even if he'll always be the same player he is now, that doesn't bode well for his Slam chances given how he's only made 3 Slam SFs over his fairly long career.
 
CDNguy87 said:
But surely wear-and-tear will catch up with him sooner or later? And given how's he been a Top 50 player who almost a decade, my guess would be sooner. In any case, even if he'll always be the same player he is now, that doesn't bode well for his Slam chances given how he's only made 3 Slam SFs over his fairly long career.
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don't forget his 2010 wimbledon final.......he really peaked that year and started showing some good results since then.......
 
bluetrain4 said:
That's a great question.

Will it be someone right below the Big 4, like Tsonga or Berdych, or will it be someone completley "new" (meaning someone who though maybe ranked fairly high and talented has not really ever made a deep Slam run - like Raonic).

And, will it involve actually taking down multiple Big 4 guys, or will it be so far in the future that it only involves beating 1, or none?

There have always been dominant groups of players, but players from outside the group have always managed to slip through here or there on multiple occasions, or even regularly. But, this just has not happened with the current group, with one exception.

Since the 2005 French Open(!), only Del Potro has won a Slam, other than the Big 4.

Of course, before Murray won 2012 USO, the Big 3 had won all but 1 Slam (again, Del Potro's USO) from the 2005 FO to the 2012 Wimbledon.

Looking backward - from 2003 to 1980 and even earlier, and the variety of winners is relatively astounding by today's standard. I looked the Slam Champions table on Wiki and it was really never like this, at all, even with legends like Sampras, Borg and Laver have their dominant periods.
Click to expand...

We truly are in an unprecedented era of dominance by such a small group of players. If I had done this poll anytime in the 3 years before the USO, Murray would have been the obvious answer to any unbiased observer. But there truly are at least half a dozen players who you could make a very legitimate argument for at the moment, which is revealed by the fact nobody currently has more than 30% of the votes.

In hindsight, I should've selected someone other than Harrison to round out the poll. If not someone his age, then maybe even a 2nd-tier guy like Cilic (ranked around #10 and only 24 years old) probably is more likely to sneak in and take one unexpectedly. But there's only been one vote for "Other", so I think I pretty much covered the main candidates.
 
Dimitrov

Not sure when it will be and his record in slams is pretty terrible but with some decent results this season I think he can win one. Might be a few years before he does though.
 
It appears my bet on Nishikori is not that far. He's beating people he's suppose to. He's the most consistent among the upstarts. Already has beaten the likes of Tsonga, Djokovic, and a winning record against Berdych. This guy is going to go up the rankings soon (barring injury). Already has 4 ATP titles including a 500 event.
 
I think Ferrer will reach a final (FO if he has a good draw) before any of the others, but I doubt he could beat Djokovic, Nadal or Federer even on clay.
For a winner, out of that lot Berdych has the best chance as if he can avoid Djokovic he can probably beat anyone else on his day.
 
CDNguy87 said:
I think that's taking it too far. In order for your post to be correct, you'd probably need the Big 4 + Delpo to continue sweeping the Slams for the next 4-5 years. That seems highly unlikely given how all of them are in their mid-late 20s now. They could certainly keep dominating for the next year or 2, but I wouldn't count on it going much beyond that.
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I honestly think Djokovic/Murray will win just about all the slams, especially once Federer/Nadal are too old to.

I mean, in order for them not to, they'll either have to be hurt, OR someone like Raonic/Dolgopolov/Nishikori/Tomic/Dimitrov will have to BEAT them in a slam. The odds of the latter ever happening...slim.
 
I don't think Ferrer/Berdych/Tsonga will win a slam considering their best years has been aligned with the top 4's best years as well. By the time the top 4 has declined so would they. There is still a chance but a slim one.

I think the next one will be a youngster. Most likely Tomic in a couple of years or even Raonic if he can improve some aspects and maintain his serve for 2 weeks. If Nishikori weren't so injury prone then he would have been my next pick.
 
I would love for Gasquet to be the guy! But my mind tells me Berdych...

  • Ferrer: would easily be my pick if he were younger (not enough time for him). He is a level above everyone else in this discussion performance wise. He still owns everyone ranked below him.
  • Tsonga: closest next choice, has made a final and is young enough to make a run. I just think Berdych has a slight edge.
  • Nishikori: injury still holding him back as we saw in this year's Aussie Open. Very tough mentally and has a strong all round game. he is young enough to heal, but it will take time to get back to contention.
  • Raonic: Best candidate of his generation (apart from Kei). Still has areas in his game he needs to improve but he is making progress (his movement is much better). Would still be an extreme outlier as the top guys have him figured out (one trick pony syndrome).
  • Others: All the younger crew have major holes in their games in some way: technique, strategy, mental toughness, etc...

Special mention: Riiiiiiichaaaard Gasquet
- top 10 player
- can beat anyone when he plays well
- extremely talented (i.e. actual talent, not just physically superior)
- possibly GOAT single handed backhand

Why not? Is french and hasn't shown consistency required for a Slam (although he is killing it in a lot of the smaller tournaments).

Imagine him winning Roland Garros or Wimbledon?! Wow. Would be amazing. Tennis kids the world over would start wrapping their grips half way and playing their backhands singled-handedly.
 
Janowicz @SW19...quite possible if he gets hot, it gets hot and dry in rainy London town and he gets a decent draw. Remember, he was a fifth-set away from the second week last summer.
 
Relinquis said:
...Special mention: Riiiiiiichaaaard Gasquet
- top 10 player
- can beat anyone when he plays well
- extremely talented (i.e. actual talent, not just physically superior)
- possibly GOAT single handed backhand

Why not? Is french and hasn't shown consistency required for a Slam (although he is killing it in a lot of the smaller tournaments).

Imagine him winning Roland Garros or Wimbledon?! Wow. Would be amazing. Tennis kids the world over would start wrapping their grips half way and playing their backhands singled-handedly.
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I don't know about that. 17 Grand Slam wins by a guy named Federer haven't convinced them. Why would Gasquet? Kids see how vulnerable Fed's SHBH is on the slow courts against a certain lefty player and they say no way Jose.
 
i see your point, but Gasquet's backhand isn't vulnerable in that way against said player... which is pretty amazing when you think about it.
 
Relinquis said:
i see your point, but Gasquet's backhand isn't vulnerable in that way against said player... which is pretty amazing when you think about it.
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yeah I don't know because I don't even remember seeing them play (they haven't played since Rome 2011 other than a DC tie which I wouldn't have watched) but I see the lefty has a 10-0 H2H with Gasquet so maybe the BH is vulnerable.
 
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