Who wins Australian open now

[nolefam_2024]

Now we have a 2 month time before slams finally begin. The top 4 are heavily favored for almost every major tournament. Probably Medvedev on clay and grass is a bit lacking.

2024 Australian open brings now questions.

Alcaraz was absent from the tour post Paris last year. How does he perform here.

Sinner has made a huge jump since his loss to Tsitsipas. He has gone through his old rivals Medvedev Sinner and recently even Nole. He is physically ready NOW. But where is his head at. Is he as big a contender as Alcaraz.

Nole is a year older and the gap between him and competition has somehow widened in 2023. He absolutely demolished the competition in Melbourne. Can he summon the same form again?

Who is winning the trophy on Melbourne.

 

[Jonas78]

Joe Kovic

 

[dking68]

Now we have a 2 month time before slams finally begin. The top 4 are heavily favored for almost every major tournament. Probably Medvedev on clay and grass is a bit lacking.

2024 Australian open brings now questions.

Alcaraz was absent from the tour post Paris last year. How does he perform here.

Sinner has made a huge jump since his loss to Tsitsipas. He has gone through his old rivals Medvedev Sinner and recently even Nole. He is physically ready NOW. But where is his head at. Is he as big a contender as Alcaraz.

Nole is a year older and the gap between him and competition has somehow widened in 2023. He absolutely demolished the competition in Melbourne. Can he summon the same form again?

Who is winning the trophy on Melbourne.

Probably Novak. Djokovic should be worried if he plays Sinner in the semi, I think that would be Sinner’s best chance of defeating him. In the final, he’s obviously gonna choke

 

[dking68]

If Djokovic doesn’t win the title - Sinner clearly the favorite

 

[Pheasant]

I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.

 

[Shaolin]

I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.

Agree with this but give Rune 0%. Give Med those extra 4% instead. Also, reverse Alcaraz and Sinner numbers.

 

[DSH]

I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.

Rune, with Alcaraz's stamina, would take down Joker, even in his favorite Major tournament.
Let's see if the Dane improves in his physical preparation to have a chance of going further than the quarterfinals of the Major tournaments, his limit, so far.

 

[dking68]

Agree with this but give Rune 0%. Give Med those extra 4% instead. Also, reverse Alcaraz and Sinner numbers.

I disagree. Alcaraz may be a 2 time slam champion but Sinner is above him on a hard court and it’s not even close

2023 results on hard court

Alcaraz : 28-9 (76%)
Sinner: 48-9 (84%)

Sinner is a level above on hard and that’s my reasoning why he’ll finish above Alcaraz in the rankings next year. Most tournaments are hard courts

 

[Jonesy]

Favorites:
1 - Djoker
2 - Sinner
3 - Med
39 - Alcaraz
59 - Nadal

 

[dking68]

Favorites:
1 - Djoker
2 - Sinner
3 - Med
39 - Alcaraz
59 - Nadal

Djokovic better pray he doesn’t draw Sinner in the semi, or else he’s going down under

 

[Federev]

Now we have a 2 month time before slams finally begin. The top 4 are heavily favored for almost every major tournament. Probably Medvedev on clay and grass is a bit lacking.

2024 Australian open brings now questions.

Alcaraz was absent from the tour post Paris last year. How does he perform here.

Sinner has made a huge jump since his loss to Tsitsipas. He has gone through his old rivals Medvedev Sinner and recently even Nole. He is physically ready NOW. But where is his head at. Is he as big a contender as Alcaraz.

Nole is a year older and the gap between him and competition has somehow widened in 2023. He absolutely demolished the competition in Melbourne. Can he summon the same form again?

Who is winning the trophy on Melbourne.

Seriously - not trolling - what solid evidence do we have that anyone can challenge Novak over 5 sets in Melbourne?

To me this question isn’t difficult.

 

[dking68]

Seriously - not trolling - what solid evidence do we have that anyone can challenge Novak over 5 sets in Melbourne?

To this question isn’t difficult.

The guy who defeated Djokovic twice in a 2 week span will seriously challenge the legend in five sets if they play in the semifinals

 

[Shaolin]

I disagree. Alcaraz may be a 2 time slam champion but Sinner is above him on a hard court and it’s not even close

2023 results on hard court

Alcaraz : 28-9 (76%)
Sinner: 48-9 (84%)

Sinner is a level above on hard and that’s my reasoning why he’ll finish above Alcaraz in the rankings next year. Most tournaments are hard courts

Sinner has never won a slam. Thats a huge factor.

Who's to say he won't choke or play terrible if he makes the final? Carlos has already done it twice and knows what it takes.

 

[Federev]

The guy who defeated Djokovic twice in a 2 week span will seriously challenge the legend in five sets if they play in the semifinals

Novak loses matches just about every year in the ATP finals. Hadn’t won it in years.

So Sinner beating him in Bo3 is no better than Roger who beat him plenty in BO5 from 2014 onward but never beat him in a slam after 2012.

Yes there was the age difference in Novak’s favor v Fed, but w Sinner he has the experience difference - and Fed was an ATG and Sinner is not.

Think of it - Novak was a few points from a CYGS this season.

I don’t think Novak is losing to anyone on his best court in 2024.

 

[CoolCoolCool]

I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.

45% for Djoker seems way too low to me, I'd say 65% is more accurate. 17% for Sinner, 13% for Raz and 5% for Med. The rest doesn't really stand a chance, but if I have to pick someone who has maybe a tiny chance, I'd pick Zverev rather than Rune.

 

[tudwell]

I disagree. Alcaraz may be a 2 time slam champion but Sinner is above him on a hard court and it’s not even close

2023 results on hard court

Alcaraz : 28-9 (76%)
Sinner: 48-9 (84%)

Sinner is a level above on hard and that’s my reasoning why he’ll finish above Alcaraz in the rankings next year. Most tournaments are hard courts

I wouldn't say it's not close. Here's how they both performed at the big hard court tournaments (slams, Masters, YEC):

Alcaraz: 25-8 (5-4 vs. top 10)
Sinner: 26-7 (7-3 vs. top 10)

Sinner also took a walkover at Paris. If he'd stayed and played and lost, he'd be at 8 losses just like Alcaraz (though Alcaraz of course missed the Aussie). Sinner arguably better overall due to his great numbers against the top 10. But Alcaraz was easily better at the one hard court slam he played than Sinner was at either of them. And for all that his top-10 record is superior, the only big title Sinner won was one where he didn't have to play any top 10s. Sinner definitely cleaned up at the 500s, but when the most points and prize money were on the line, he and Carlitos were pretty similar.

Of course, given recent form, I'd definitely have Sinner as a greater favorite than Alcaraz at the Australian, but things can change fast. Sinner's currently riding a wave of form and Carlitos is in a trough, but those two poles could swap almost at any time. We'll see how 2024 plays out.

 

[junior74]

Novack

 

[tudwell]

45% for Djoker seems way too low to me, I'd say 65% is more accurate. 17% for Sinner, 13% for Raz and 5% for Med. The rest doesn't really stand a chance, but if I have to pick someone who has maybe a tiny chance, I'd pick Zverev rather than Rune.

Yeah I'd definitely take Djokovic over the field. Really hard to see him not winning it. I'd also probably put Med above Raz given both recent form and Med's success at the Aussie in the past. Two runner-up finishes is nothing to sniff at.. Alcaraz of course didn't play this year and hadn't truly broken out when he played last year, so we really don't have much of a gauge on just how comfortable he'll be on the surface. He could take to it like a duck to water, like he did with Wimbledon. Or it could end up being his worst slam for whatever reason.

 

[inflation_era]

Chances:
Djokovic: 90%
Nadal: 5%
Federer: 4%
Alcaraz: 0.25%
Sinner: 0.25%
Medy: 0.25%
Zverev: 0.25%

 

[nolefam_2024]

I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.

25% is big chance. Is it his best shot from the first 3 slams in the year?

 

[BauerAlmeida]

Djokovic
Alcaraz
Sinner
Medvedev

Then the rest.

 

[Pheasant]

25% is big chance. Is it his best shot from the first 3 slams in the year?

I think that he's become deadly on hard courts. Counting the Davis Cup, he's won 9 out of his last 10 matches vs the top-10 on hard courts. I'm giving him 25% chance at the AO and a 25% chance at the USO. I can see Sinner bagging one of these hard court slams titles. With his new service motion, I think that he has a decent shot at Wimbledon too; maybe 15% chance there. He just made the semi at Wimbledon this year after making the QF at Wimbledon the previous year. And it took Djoker to knock him out both times. There's no shame there at all. That's a great effort on grass by Sinner. What's ironic is that I don't like his chances too much on clay. He looked like the next clay phenom in 2020 when he made the QF at the FO at age 19, then pushed Nadal hard in that first set. But since then, he hasn't done too much on clay(one small title in his career so far).

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think that he's become deadly on hard courts. Counting the Davis Cup, he's won 9 out of his last 10 matches vs the top-10 on hard courts. I'm giving him 25% chance at the AO and a 25% chance at the USO. I can see Sinner bagging one of these hard court slams titles. With his new service motion, I think that he has a decent shot at Wimbledon too; maybe 15% chance there. He just made the semi at Wimbledon this year after making the QF at Wimbledon the previous year. And it took Djoker to knock him out both times. There's no shame there at all. That's a great effort on grass by Sinner. What's ironic is that I don't like his chances too much on clay. He looked like the next clay phenom in 2020 when he made the QF at the FO at age 19, then pushed Nadal hard in that first set. But since then, he hasn't done too much on clay(one small title in his career so far).

True.

I think he is in the middle of Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych. But both Nole and Tomas were good on grass. Maybe in future Sinner will be someone who won 3 Wimbledons. Who knows.

Both Nole and Berdych's worst surface was clay.

 

[travlerajm]

Agree with this but give Rune 0%. Give Med those extra 4% instead. Also, reverse Alcaraz and Sinner numbers.

Agree. Everyone is high on Sinner and low on Alcaraz due to recency bias.

The reality is that both will regress toward their mean. Carlos will improve a bit over the holidays. And Sinner will regress.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Chances:
Djokovic: 90%
Nadal: 5%
Federer: 4%
Alcaraz: 0.25%
Sinner: 0.25%
Medy: 0.25%
Zverev: 0.25%

Literally this.

Novak has a 90% chance against the field. You can divvy up the rest of the 10% any way you wish, but Djokovic is the prohibitive favorite. Anyone touting anyone else is trolling or spectacularly uninformed.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Literally this.

Novak has a 90% chance against the field. You can divvy up the rest of the 10% any way you wish, but Djokovic is the prohibitive favorite. Anyone touting anyone else is trolling or spectacularly uninformed.

No

 

[dking68]

Novak loses matches just about every year in the ATP finals. Hadn’t won it in years.

So Sinner beating him in Bo3 is no better than Roger who beat him plenty in BO5 from 2014 onward but never beat him in a slam after 2012.

Yes there was the age difference in Novak’s favor, but w Sinner he has the experience difference.

The guy was a few points from a CYGS last season.

I don’t think Novak is losing to anyone on his best court in 2024.

I didn’t say he would beat Novak. I think the match will go to 5 sets if they play in the semifinals.

 

[CoolCoolCool]

Literally this.

Novak has a 90% chance against the field. You can divvy up the rest of the 10% any way you wish, but Djokovic is the prohibitive favorite. Anyone touting anyone else is trolling or spectacularly uninformed.

Why do you always have to be so hyperbolic lol.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Why do you always have to be so hyperbolic lol.

Exactly.

 

[dking68]

Sinner will beat Carlos in semifinals if they play at AO. In four sets

 

[McGradey]

Funny that everyone is banging on about Sinner and Alcaraz yet they have done exactly squat at the AO to date.

Tfw the 2024 AO semis feature Djokovic Medvedev Tsitsipas and Berrettini

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sinner will beat Carlos in semifinals if they play at AO. In four sets

That match would be 50/50. Alcaraz has beaten Sinner in the only hc slam they ever played.

 

[dking68]

That match would be 50/50. Alcaraz has beaten Sinner in the only hc slam they ever played.

Yes but Sinner improved more. Sinner is serving bigger, hitting bigger. Alcaraz hasn’t improved as much as Sinner and he almost lost in 4 to the weaker Sinner. I think he will lose to Sinner at AO in 4

 

[esvc]

Sinner won't make the final. The expectation will be too much to handle.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Yes but Sinner improved more. Sinner is serving bigger, hitting bigger. Alcaraz hasn’t improved as much as Sinner and he almost lost in 4 to the weaker Sinner. I think he will lose to Sinner at AO in 4

Alcaraz doesn't need to. He has won IW Miami and only players who won both in open era are these.

Alcaraz
Federer
Djokovic
Rios
Chang
Sampras
Agassi

Out of these, these lead slam count in AO.

Agassi 4
Federer 6
Djokovic 10

Even Pete won 2 times.

And Chang and Rios made AO finals.

Alcaraz will BECOME Australian open champion. It's just a question if he does it next year or later.

Sinner has a lot to prove.

 

[nolefam_2024]

There is no doubt in our mind that Raz will win RG as well. Only one which we can even debate is AO. But I think he will be multi slam winner at AO.

Nole and Rafa might not remain the only multi CGS winners. Alcaraz may join them.

But I think Nole is safe with 3 CGS for sure. I don't think there is anyone who can win 4 CGS out of the current bunch.

 

[dking68]

Alcaraz doesn't need to. He has won IW Miami and only players who won both in open era are these.

Alcaraz
Federer
Djokovic
Rios
Chang
Sampras
Agassi

Out of these, these lead slam count in AO.

Agassi 4
Federer 6
Djokovic 10

Even Pete won 2 times.

And Chang and Rios made AO finals.

Alcaraz will BECOME Australian open champion. It's just a question if he does it next year or later.

Sinner has a lot to prove.

He will win AO yes. But I think Sinner will be stronger on hard courts. His ballstriking will be rewarded a lot in Melbourne. I think he can snatch 5 titles or so at Melbourne

 

[I Am Finnish]

Fedr

 

[Shaolin]

Sinner will beat Carlos in semifinals if they play at AO. In four sets

Carlos will beat Sinner in 4 or 5 if they play at AO.

Sinner's chicken legs will give out in the hot Australian sun.

 

[dking68]

Carlos will beat Sinner in 4 or 5 if they play at AO.

Sinner's chicken legs will give out in the hot Australian sun.

Let’s see. Sinner is superior to Alcaraz on the Melbourne courts. He will make Alcaraz run around - similar to the Beijing semifinal.

 

[junior74]

No

Why not 90%?

The last three slam seasons for Novak: 65-3

That's 95% winning percentage

 

[BeatlesFan]

No

And if anyone was obtuse enough to say Novak had a 10% chance and the field had a 90% chance, you’d say “no” to that too.

My statistical probability of Dkokovic winning the AO is backed up by results since 2008, feel free to do the math and say “no” to someone stupid enough to agree with you.

 

[tennis3]

AO is slow hard court. Nothing like ATP Finals or Davis Cup.

Djokovic clear favorite. Alcaraz certainly has a shot. As does Medvedev. Sinner has no chance in BO5 on slow hard court. He doesn't get any reward for his ball striking.

 

[NYTennisfan]

If Djokovic doesn’t win the title - Sinner clearly the favorite

Over Medvedev? I'll believe it when I see it.

Sinner has the talent to be a serious contender at every HC tournament but, as we all know, mental strength and conditioning is so imperative in Grand Slam tennis and Sinner hasn't yet displayed that he has the ability to handle the grind of the 2nd week of Best of 5s quite yet.

As of now, I'd put Sinner at 4th in the pecking order at AO behind Djokovic, Medvedev and Alcaraz based on proven ability. A healthy Nadal could be lumped in there too.

 

[NYTennisfan]

I disagree. Alcaraz may be a 2 time slam champion but Sinner is above him on a hard court and it’s not even close

2023 results on hard court

Alcaraz : 28-9 (76%)
Sinner: 48-9 (84%)

Sinner is a level above on hard and that’s my reasoning why he’ll finish above Alcaraz in the rankings next year. Most tournaments are hard courts

Best of 3 but Sinner is less proven on Best of 5 hardcourts. Hell, he couldn't even beat Zverev in his last Bo5 match. Sinner still has a lot to prove on the biggest stage to deserve all these accolades.

 

[tsp_207]

Djokovic at AO is like Rafa at RG. You don't bet against him.

 

[fedfan24]

94%% Djokovic for another easy win. 5% he draws 3 of Alcaraz, Medvedev, Zverev, Sinner, Rune or whoever possible, 1% he gets taken out by sniper.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Why not 90%?

The last three slam seasons for Novak: 65-3

That's 95% winning percentage

That proves nothing. Andy Murray made 5 AO finals and had 88% winning rate in that 5 combined. That didn't give him even 1 title..

Don't count 95%. Those include early round matches which goat level players should win. We aren't discussing tsitsipas. So only count qf+

 

[Federev]

No

How can a decent case be made for Sinner for a more than 10% chance? (I think 10% is generous)

Novak is fresh off completely dominating the tour at every meaningful slam, missing WB by the skin of his teeth.

And the AO is his best slam.

Maybe Sinner has a shot at possibly giving Novak a fight at the USO, maybe even WB (doubtful).

But how can you give him any decent shot at the AO w Novak in fine form?

 

[nolefam_2024]

How can a decent case be made for Sinner for a more than 10% chance? (I think 10% is generous)

Novak is fresh off completely dominating the tour at every meaningful slam, missing WB by the skin of his teeth.

And the AO is his best slam.

Maybe Sinner has a shot at possibly giving Novak a fight at the USO, maybe even WB (doubtful).

But how can you give him any decent shot at the AO w Novak is fine form?

I didn't say Sinner has 10% chance. He might have 10% but @BeatlesFan says entire tour except Nole has 10%. That's idiotic. I would never take even Nadal at RG at 90%