Who wins Australian open now

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
That proves nothing. Andy Murray made 5 AO finals and had 88% winning rate in that 5 combined. That didn't give him even 1 title..

Don't count 95%. Those include early round matches which goat level players should win. We aren't discussing tsitsipas. So only count qf+

Just stating facts. This is what Novak does to lost gens.
Stan, who some said was a journeyman, did better against Novak than entire generations of tennis players combined.

Novak has 7 out of the 9 last slams he competed in.

Obviously his chance is a lot bigger than the rest of the field combined.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
That proves nothing. Andy Murray made 5 AO finals and had 88% winning rate in that 5 combined. That didn't give him even 1 title..

Don't count 95%. Those include early round matches which goat level players should win. We aren't discussing tsitsipas. So only count qf+
90% is an exaggeration but I think he’s at least something like 60-40 over the field. The guy’s just untouchable down under. Last two times he won he was injured. If he’s healthy the rest of the tour might as well not even show up.
 

McGradey

Hall of Fame
Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if Djokovic is secretly wondering if he has a shot at equaling Nadal’s RG slam count but in Melbourne. Or getting close at least. Thought must have crossed his mind after he bullied his way through the tournament on a dodgy leg.
 

CoolCoolCool

Hall of Fame
Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if Djokovic is secretly wondering if he has a shot at equaling Nadal’s RG slam count but in Melbourne. Or getting close at least. Thought must have crossed his mind after he bullied his way through the tournament on a dodgy leg.
Losing to Stan at AO 14 and not playing AO 22 made that impossible. I don't think he has that in mind at all.
 

sometennisdot

Professional
Djokovic is a sure winner.
Alcaraz hasn't even reached the QF's yet at the AO, and the court doesn't fit him.
Sinner showed us at the ATP Finals what actually happens when he can see great triumph within reach, so no chance he's gonna be able to beat Djokovic at a slam yet
Medvedev couldnt even take a set off Djokovic at the UO, and he's worse at the AO.
 

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
Losing to Stan at AO 14 and not playing AO 22 made that impossible. I don't think he has that in mind at all.

You underestimate him.

He has 10 Aussie crowns, and winning 4 more will be difficult but not impossible. He will be 36 at this AO, and if he wins four of the next five, he gets to 14 by the age of 40. Which is when he wants to play until anyway.
 
I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.
I like how his serve increased from 122.9 mph 1st half of 2023 to 125 in 2nd half of 2022
 

paolo2143

Professional
Yeah I'd definitely take Djokovic over the field. Really hard to see him not winning it. I'd also probably put Med above Raz given both recent form and Med's success at the Aussie in the past. Two runner-up finishes is nothing to sniff at.. Alcaraz of course didn't play this year and hadn't truly broken out when he played last year, so we really don't have much of a gauge on just how comfortable he'll be on the surface. He could take to it like a duck to water, like he did with Wimbledon. Or it could end up being his worst slam for whatever reason.
I think for first time I wouldn't take Novak over the field. Don't get me wrong he is still deservedly favourite going in but father time eventually catches up with everyone and there are 3 or 4 guys who I think have a decent shot at taking him out from QF onwards, whereas in past once he got that far I think no one was really strong enough to stop him.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
90% is an exaggeration but I think he’s at least something like 60-40 over the field. The guy’s just untouchable down under. Last two times he won he was injured. If he’s healthy the rest of the tour might as well not even show up.
Yes so there is huge difference between 60/40 and 90/10 right? I know it's exaggeration but the member is DARING anyone to oppose the odds. Those odds are ridiculous tbh.

I think Nole is 40/60 to win AO. Let's see.
 

JoshDragon

Hall of Fame
Now we have a 2 month time before slams finally begin. The top 4 are heavily favored for almost every major tournament. Probably Medvedev on clay and grass is a bit lacking.

2024 Australian open brings now questions.

Alcaraz was absent from the tour post Paris last year. How does he perform here.

Sinner has made a huge jump since his loss to Tsitsipas. He has gone through his old rivals Medvedev Sinner and recently even Nole. He is physically ready NOW. But where is his head at. Is he as big a contender as Alcaraz.

Nole is a year older and the gap between him and competition has somehow widened in 2023. He absolutely demolished the competition in Melbourne. Can he summon the same form again?

Who is winning the trophy on Melbourne.
I think I'm going to win it next year.

No player born in the 1990s has won the Australian Open. I'd like to see that changed.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
I think for first time I wouldn't take Novak over the field. Don't get me wrong he is still deservedly favourite going in but father time eventually catches up with everyone and there are 3 or 4 guys who I think have a decent shot at taking him out from QF onwards, whereas in past once he got that far I think no one was really strong enough to stop him.
People trot out Father Time every year and Novak keeps laughing his way to trophies. He’s been unbelievably strong at slams lately. In the last three years, he’s lost to Nadal at the French, Medvedev while going for the calendar slam, and Alcaraz at Wimbledon this year. That’s it. One loss per year and one loss per surface. And he’s not showing any signs of slowing down, other than playing a more limited schedule but that doesn’t seem to hurt his slam chances at all – indeed probably the opposite.

Obviously the fall has to happen at some point but I just see no indication that it’s coming anytime soon. He’s prohibitive favorite at every slam he plays for the foreseeable future, with the possible exception of Roland Garros if Nadal comes back strong.
 
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Sinner for me.

Alcaraz will be interesting to watch. It’s been a while since he has had a proper uninterrupted off season. He will come out breathing fire but the AO conditions are the least suited to his game of all four majors, so hard to see him winning.

The ideal situation would be for Alcaraz and Shelton to go as far as they can and both play spoiler, and we end up with something like a sensational Rune vs Sinner final that goes 5.
 

McGradey

Hall of Fame
You underestimate him.

He has 10 Aussie crowns, and winning 4 more will be difficult but not impossible. He will be 36 at this AO, and if he wins four of the next five, he gets to 14 by the age of 40. Which is when he wants to play until anyway.
Can Djokovic continue to succeed with his newly minted old man strength, and how will the tour respond? Will he need to find another method to administer the Ls in Melbourne this time around?

Honestly even if he loses this next one, it would need to be to a complete random or a former whipping boy for me to believe his AO dominance is drawing to a close.
 

The Sinner

Semi-Pro
Sinner has never won a slam. Thats a huge factor.

Who's to say he won't choke or play terrible if he makes the final? Carlos has already done it twice and knows what it takes.
Delpo, prior to winning the USO in 2009, only made one SF (RG) and two QFs, not to mention only making R2 in one other slam. In Comparison, Sinner has made QFs in all slams, plus one SF, higher ranking than the Tower of Tandil and a far better win/loss % going into this AO. Just saying.
 

dking68

Legend
Can Djokovic continue to succeed with his newly minted old man strength, and how will the tour respond? Will he need to find another method to administer the Ls in Melbourne this time around?

Honestly even if he loses this next one, it would need to be to a complete random or a former whipping boy for me to believe his AO dominance is drawing to a close.
That whipper boy will be Jannik Sinner. If he doesn’t get it done at AO 24’ it will be done at 25’, mark my words
 

The Sinner

Semi-Pro
Obviously Djoko is favourite, however if he doesn't make the final, then Sinner is next favourite to win.
After him, I'd put Alcaraz, Medvedev and Tsitsipas (who has been very successful there for some years now), with Rune under Becker as the dark horse.
 

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
Can Djokovic continue to succeed with his newly minted old man strength, and how will the tour respond? Will he need to find another method to administer the Ls in Melbourne this time around?

Honestly even if he loses this next one, it would need to be to a complete random or a former whipping boy for me to believe his AO dominance is drawing to a close.

So much of it is aura. No one believes they can beat him, so no one beats him.

Djokovic took Alcaraz' edge by killing him with kindness. "Hey man you're so so good! Wanna come practice with me?"

Of course Alcaraz was too nice to say no, so now Djoko owns him.

Sinner should refuse all acts of kindness from the benevolent superstar.
 

Neptune

Hall of Fame
Now we have a 2 month time before slams finally begin. The top 4 are heavily favored for almost every major tournament. Probably Medvedev on clay and grass is a bit lacking.

2024 Australian open brings now questions.

Alcaraz was absent from the tour post Paris last year. How does he perform here.

Sinner has made a huge jump since his loss to Tsitsipas. He has gone through his old rivals Medvedev Sinner and recently even Nole. He is physically ready NOW. But where is his head at. Is he as big a contender as Alcaraz.

Nole is a year older and the gap between him and competition has somehow widened in 2023. He absolutely demolished the competition in Melbourne. Can he summon the same form again?

Who is winning the trophy on Melbourne.

Hope Nole #25 here.
But the top 4 are strong, either one winning is no surprise.
 

AgassiSuperSlam11

Professional
I think it will take a tough draw as the 2021 USO in which he had to play Matteo, Z, and a well-rested Meddy for the field to have a chance. Perhaps if he gets a tough 4R opponent as Tiafoe, QF Rune, SF Meddy, and then either Alcaraz or Sinner playing at A+ level in the final then perhaps you have a new AO champion. Djokovic has a 21-0 record after the AO changed to Greenset in 2020.
 
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Midaso240

Legend
I disagree. Alcaraz may be a 2 time slam champion but Sinner is above him on a hard court and it’s not even close

2023 results on hard court

Alcaraz : 28-9 (76%)
Sinner: 48-9 (84%)

Sinner is a level above on hard and that’s my reasoning why he’ll finish above Alcaraz in the rankings next year. Most tournaments are hard courts
I like Alcaraz on the slower hard courts, Sinner on the faster ones. I think Alcaraz, Medvedev and Djokovic are still safer bets at this point in time in best of 5 which is why they're all ahead of him in the betting odds right now for AO 24
 

Midaso240

Legend
Literally this.

Novak has a 90% chance against the field. You can divvy up the rest of the 10% any way you wish, but Djokovic is the prohibitive favorite. Anyone touting anyone else is trolling or spectacularly uninformed.
No one in the history of tennis has ever been a 90% favourite for a grand slam. Maybe for a single match, but not for a slam. He could get a Zverev RG injury in the early rounds, or a disqualification like at USO '20. You just never know, you can't put your house on it which 90% is getting pretty damn close to
 

CoolCoolCool

Hall of Fame
Very unlikely anyone beats him at AO unless someone improves a ton... fairly realistic to go win it 4 yrs in a row
You're just a victim of recency bias. He'll decline heavily sooner or later and it won't feel fairly realistic all of a sudden. I'm pretty sure nobody expected Rog's decline to be so rapid following Wimbledon 2019.
 

wangs78

Legend
Now we have a 2 month time before slams finally begin. The top 4 are heavily favored for almost every major tournament. Probably Medvedev on clay and grass is a bit lacking.

2024 Australian open brings now questions.

Alcaraz was absent from the tour post Paris last year. How does he perform here.

Sinner has made a huge jump since his loss to Tsitsipas. He has gone through his old rivals Medvedev Sinner and recently even Nole. He is physically ready NOW. But where is his head at. Is he as big a contender as Alcaraz.

Nole is a year older and the gap between him and competition has somehow widened in 2023. He absolutely demolished the competition in Melbourne. Can he summon the same form again?

Who is winning the trophy on Melbourne.
Sinner has spent the last couple of years showing that he is ready and then failing when the next big moment arrives. Him losing the WTF final after beating Djoker in the RR is the latest example. So, I would say he will fail once more at the AO. But then he will finally succeed at the next opportunity, whenever that is.
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
I think for first time I wouldn't take Novak over the field. Don't get me wrong he is still deservedly favourite going in but father time eventually catches up with everyone and there are 3 or 4 guys who I think have a decent shot at taking him out from QF onwards, whereas in past once he got that far I think no one was really strong enough to stop him.
Where were all these guys when Djokovic won 3 Slams this year plus the ATP Finals and 2 Masters tournaments? He won something like 19 matches after Wimbledon before losing to Sinner and then beating him when it was for all the marbles in the ATP Finals final. Not to mention that he has won 7 of 10 Slams he played in plus made 2 more finals. He also has won 9 AO titles since 2011 and lost only 3 matches during that stretch with two coming in 2017-18 when he had an elbow injury. It seems like exactly the right time to bet on Djokovic against the field as the AO is faster these days and Djokovic is hitting his FH as big as he ever did in his career to win all the fast court titles - last 2 ATP Finals, last 2 AOs, Paris Bercy and the Cincinnati Open.

No one is gaining on him. Sinner lost the final of the ATP Finals in the match that mattered after beating him in the round robin - after playing great all week, he couldn’t beat Djokovic in the knockout round with the home crowd going wild for him and maybe it is because Djokovic averaged 10pm faster on his FH than Sinner. Alcaraz lost the last two matches at Cincinnati and Turin after winning at Wimbledon. Medvedev lost the USO final in straight sets after beating him there in 2021 - he is 1-5 since then. Tsitsipas has lost 10 in a row in the head-to-head. Rune lost in the rematch at Bercy after beating him there last year and in addition lost at Turin. Where is the evidence that now there are players strong enough to stop him in the second week at Melbourne when Rod Laver arena is his playground? Upsets can happen in sports, but there is no evidence to forecast one at the AO.
 
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Benf15harp

Hall of Fame
Doubt Novak gets the cupcake Tommy paul in semis this go round or tailor made opponents in every rd like grigor adm rublev baena sissy etc
His odds are 45% but imo should be closer to 20%
Hell, look at noles last several AO semis vs
Paul lol
karatsev lol
Old Roger lol
Pouille lol
He’s due for a bowl of unlucky charms
 
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You're just a victim of recency bias. He'll decline heavily sooner or later and it won't feel fairly realistic all of a sudden. I'm pretty sure nobody expected Rog's decline to be so rapid following Wimbledon 2019.
Federer wasn't a decline it was injury messed him up too much... major career ending injury could happen but probably not. Should be no other reason for him to stop being able to be high level for just a few years
 

FeroBango

Hall of Fame
You're just a victim of recency bias. He'll decline heavily sooner or later and it won't feel fairly realistic all of a sudden. I'm pretty sure nobody expected Rog's decline to be so rapid following Wimbledon 2019.
Roger was 38 and while he was a direct influence on Djokovic and Nadal in longevity, no one does fitness in sport quite like Djokovic.

Having said that, he's one bad knee injury away from permanent decline.
 

FeroBango

Hall of Fame
No one in the history of tennis has ever been a 90% favourite for a grand slam. Maybe for a single match, but not for a slam. He could get a Zverev RG injury in the early rounds, or a disqualification like at USO '20. You just never know, you can't put your house on it which 90% is getting pretty damn close to
He'll be 90% the favorite for every single match at the AO. Close to that at least.
 

JasonZ

Hall of Fame
I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.
dont forget that the speed measurements at the yec are flawed, players are serving 4mp there than any other tournament.
 

Benf15harp

Hall of Fame
Roger was 38 and while he was a direct influence on Djokovic and Nadal in longevity, no one does fitness in sport quite like Djokovic.

Having said that, he's one bad knee injury away from permanent decline.
Should note that his absence from about 1 seasons worth of matches due to Covid has aided in his longevity
 
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Benf15harp

Hall of Fame
I think KOK will make a very deep run and win the AO after pounding Novak in the final
 
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CoolCoolCool

Hall of Fame
Federer wasn't a decline it was injury messed him up too much... major career ending injury could happen but probably not. Should be no other reason for him to stop being able to be high level for just a few years
He declined because of an injury that ended his career, he tried to come back but was no longer the same. It's a decline.

Roger was 38 and while he was a direct influence on Djokovic and Nadal in longevity, no one does fitness in sport quite like Djokovic.

Having said that, he's one bad knee injury away from permanent decline.
Yes, Rog was 38 and we're discussing whether Djoker could win 4 AO titles in a row, that means he'd have to keep winning it at 38 and even at 39.
 

Lauren_Girl'

Hall of Fame
Now we have a 2 month time before slams finally begin. The top 4 are heavily favored for almost every major tournament. Probably Medvedev on clay and grass is a bit lacking.

2024 Australian open brings now questions.

Alcaraz was absent from the tour post Paris last year. How does he perform here.

Sinner has made a huge jump since his loss to Tsitsipas. He has gone through his old rivals Medvedev Sinner and recently even Nole. He is physically ready NOW. But where is his head at. Is he as big a contender as Alcaraz.

Nole is a year older and the gap between him and competition has somehow widened in 2023. He absolutely demolished the competition in Melbourne. Can he summon the same form again?

Who is winning the trophy on Melbourne.

Nothing changed, it's still Djokovic #1 and then Sinner/Alcaraz/Medvedev are a new top-3 behind him.

I still wouldn't trust Sinner on outdoor HC. His case on outdoor isn't as bad as Rune's but he still needs to prove himself. He lost twice against Tsitsipas down under. He barely beat Wawrinka and lost to Zverev in USO. His only M1000 was against Monfils Paul and DeMinaur... I'm not saying it to belittle him but I think it's fair to say he likes Indoor conditions better. Maybe 2024 will prove us wrong...or not.

We don't have much informations for Alcaraz in Australia. He has never played a warmup event down under. Never played on the Rod Laver Arena as far as I know. He lost his most important match against Berrettini. The end of his season was average... beating this version of Rublev and a tanking Medvedev won't make him number #1 favorite of the next slam.

Medvedev is getting more and more hopeless in Australia since 2021. He looked awful in 2022 in at least 5 of his 7 matches. Lost in straight sets against Korda last year. His beat Djoko in Dubaï, Sinner in Miami and Alcaraz in USO but these 3 have kicked his ass over and over lately, I wouldn't trust him in BO5 against any of his 3 rivals.
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
AO is slow hard court. Nothing like ATP Finals or Davis Cup.

Djokovic clear favorite. Alcaraz certainly has a shot. As does Medvedev. Sinner has no chance in BO5 on slow hard court. He doesn't get any reward for his ball striking.
If Joker gets the following draw: Felix "the cat" in the third round, "phone boy" in the fourth round, the "chained" in the quarterfinals, "Shaggy" in the semifinals and the "wonder boy" in the final, could he survive?
:sneaky:
 
He declined because of an injury that ended his career, he tried to come back but was no longer the same. It's a decline.


Yes, Rog was 38 and we're discussing whether Djoker could win 4 AO titles in a row, that means he'd have to keep winning it at 38 and even at 39.
Yea exactly injury not age decline. Most likely wont happen to Djokovic. No reason why he cant win it at 39
 

Baggio10

New User
Alcaraz doesn't need to. He has won IW Miami and only players who won both in open era are these.

Alcaraz
Federer
Djokovic
Rios
Chang
Sampras
Agassi

Out of these, these lead slam count in AO.

Agassi 4
Federer 6
Djokovic 10

Even Pete won 2 times.

And Chang and Rios made AO finals.

Alcaraz will BECOME Australian open champion. It's just a question if he does it next year or later.

Sinner has a lot to prove.
No love for Jim Courier?
 

Razer

Legend
If full fit then Djokovic is 100% going to win AO 2024

Not even 1% for the field to touch him, he will beat Sinner and Alcaraz back to back, wait and watch.
 

CoolCoolCool

Hall of Fame
Yea exactly injury not age decline. Most likely wont happen to Djokovic. No reason why he cant win it at 39
The two are related. Rog wasn't really injury-prone in his younger days, he started to get more and more injured as he aged. There's a point when he was too old for his body to take it and he couldn't properly recover to come back, yet his game wasn't as physical as Djoker's. And it's not just about injuries, it will become gradually more difficult to stop the likes of Sinner and Raz.
 
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