Who wins Australian open now

Midaso240

Legend
He'll be 90% the favorite for every single match at the AO. Close to that at least.
First week yeah, in fact for the first 2 matches it will probably be 99.9% or something with the 0.1% accounting for freak occurrences like USO, there is as good as zero chance that players ranked that low can win in normal circumstances. Against Sinner, Medvedev and Alcaraz though it will probably be 70% or less
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic is going to feel the heat if he has to play Sinner semis and Alcaraz finals.
I thought the same about having to beat Alcaraz and Sinner in the semi and final of the ATP Finals. About facing Medvedev in the USO final. About facing Ruud in the FO final. About facing Tsitsipas in the AO final. Turned out that it didn’t faze the GOAT at all who won all these matches in straight sets.
 

dking68

Legend
I thought the same about having to beat Alcaraz and Sinner in the semi and final of the ATP Finals. About facing Medvedev in the USO final. About facing Ruud in the FO final. About facing Tsitsipas in the AO final. Turned out that it didn’t faze the GOAT at all who won all these matches in straight sets.
The GOAT can’t beat Father Time. The GOAT will relinquish his AO crown by the latest AO 2025.
 

FeroBango

Hall of Fame
Djokovic is as close to being a lock at the AO as he's ever going to be. That much is clear as he looks to follow up his 3-slams-PLUS-ATP-Finals season.

He's a double digit champion at that slam alone ffs.

If he isn't at the very least a 75% favorite to win it, idk, time for me to watch pickleball or something. The odds are against anyone who draws the great man on the other side of the court.
 
Djokovic is as close to being a lock at the AO as he's ever going to be. That much is clear as he looks to follow up his 3-slams-PLUS-ATP-Finals season.

He's a double digit champion at that slam alone ffs.

If he isn't at the very least a 75% favorite to win it, idk, time for me to watch pickleball or something. The odds are against anyone who draws the great man on the other side of the court.
I agree, nakichet's 40/60 is extremely pessimistic and clearly a self defense mechanism expecting Djokovic to fail so he can't feel let down if he loses
 

FeroBango

Hall of Fame
I agree, nakichet's 40/60 is extremely pessimistic and clearly a self defense mechanism expecting Djokovic to fail so he can't feel let down if he loses
I would do the same lol if Novak was my guy. Understandable fan behavior but the reality is the man is walking in as the overwhelming favorite. If torn hammies and abs don't stop the man from bulldozing the field in two straight appearances at the event, then nothing will.

Jannik if anything I'm willing to bet he crumbles at the sight of him at RLA should he face Novak in the final anyway.

Prime BIG 3 couldn't touch him there. Jannik and Raz aren't going to do it there either. Not this year anyway.
 
Djokovic, Sinner, Alcaraz, Meddy are the front runners.

The actual wildcard here is Nadal. I’m not sure what he does.

If he plays a warm up in Brisbane, starts strong and gets through few rounds in the Australian open draw then he could surprise us with great run. It’s either that or it’s too early to play and he struggles early on before building form later in year.
 

ryushen21

Legend
It's hard to discount Djokovic's chances at the AO. He has to be the favorite going in. Unless he gets injured or mired in another scandal/controversy.

Sinner is on the rise for sure. He's shown ability and resolve against his toughest opponents but a Slam always adds another intangible factor.

Alcaraz is going to continue to be a lingering threat. Even with his dip in performance lately, you'd have to be foolish to think he's sitting back and not preparing to show up ready.

As for anyone else, I always say that anyone can lose on any given day. And that seems to be even more the case in slams.
 
Doubt Novak gets the cupcake Tommy paul in semis this go round or tailor made opponents in every rd like grigor adm rublev baena sissy etc
His odds are 45% but imo should be closer to 20%
Hell, look at noles last several AO semis vs
Paul lol
karatsev lol
Old Roger lol
Pouille lol
He’s due for a bowl of unlucky charms
He just beat Sinner, Raz and Rune in indoors conditions, with Sinner and Rune being close to their best. There is no one who can outmatch him in AO playing conditions, only him playing poorly and knocking himself out.
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
He just beat Sinner, Raz and Rune in indoors conditions, with Sinner and Rune being close to their best. There is no one who can outmatch him in AO playing conditions, only him playing poorly and knocking himself out.
Imagine that your idol gets Wawrinka in the first round, Shapovalov in the second round, FAA in the third round, Shelton in the fourth round, Zverev in the quarterfinals, Sinner in the semifinals and Alcaraz in the final, would your idol at his age survive that draw?
:happydevil:
 

Quaichang

Professional
I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.
Rest of field 0%.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Oh come on its impossible to be sure about Nadal winning it when he struggled even in 2022 when he went undefeated for a long time
He is not winning any slam except RG 2024 where currently he should be third favorite.

As long as Djokovic is healthier than Nadal, he will not allow a single non RG slam to Nadal. And now we have alcaraz as well to use as a scare tactic.

In 2022 I foolishly believed that a combination of Zverev and Medvedev will be enough to stop Nadal. But these guys can't save themselves let alone beat nadal. So I am not going to wait for either Zverev Medvedev Sinner to be a savior but we can trust Nole and Alcaraz.

As long as one of these two is in the final, they will block Nadal guaranteed. Nothing the old bull will do vs these two at AO.
 

a10best

Hall of Fame
The odds are now;
Djokovic, but if he loses to Sinner
Medvedev, but if he loses to Zev
then Sinner.

I cannot pick Zev as winner due to his last slam final performance in the 5th set serving like Errani. Although, I wouldn't mind if he wins it because he will have played very well.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
I'd probably go something like this for the AO:
Djokovic: 45% chance
Sinner: 25% chance
Alcaraz: 15% chance
Medvedev: 10% chance
Rune: 4% chance
The rest of the field: 1%

Cahill has overhauled Sinner's mechanics for the serve. His feet are spread out a lot more and he has a much more efficient motion now. He's not swinging wide, which allows him to be far more accurate. In addition, he appears to be jumping a few more inches off the ground, which allows him to hit with more pace these days. And this all happened this Summer. And Sinner is going bigger on break points. His average 1st serve speed when facing break points has jumped from 122.9 mph during the first half of 2023 to 125.0 mph during the 2nd half of 2022. That's a big difference. And it shows. For the first half of this year, his opponents were converting 34% of the break point opportunities vs Sinner. During the last half of the year, that number plummeted to 25%.

And Sinner is still a work in progress. He'll only get better.
Rune's AO appearances thus far:

2022: lost in first round to Kwon
2023: lost in fourth round to Rublev
2024: lost in second round to Cazaux
 

3loudboys

G.O.A.T.
Novak Djokovic. He’s in the heads of all the guys remaining. No matter how well the others have played to this point, facing the world no1 on Laver is like facing Rafa on Chatrier … an ordeal …. he’s the overwhelming favourite ... and he knows it. And at the business end of the tournament he’s ruthless tactically and will unpick Jannik in the semis and Med in the final. Only Father Time will beat him at the AO.
 

Smecz

Semi-Pro
Only Novak can win AO 2024 :-D

His special relationship with his friend Special Tree for 15 years, he gave him 10 wins in AO:laughing:


He's probably already discussing tactics, I'm sure the tree will keep its fingers crossed:-D

And if he wins, he will go with the cup to show off to his Special Friend...Hahaha:-D

There will be so much Joy:-D HaHaHa
 

messiahrobins

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic. He’s in the heads of all the guys remaining. No matter how well the others have played to this point, facing the world no1 on Laver is like facing Rafa on Chatrier … an ordeal …. he’s the overwhelming favourite ... and he knows it. And at the business end of the tournament he’s ruthless tactically and will unpick Jannik in the semis and Med in the final. Only Father Time will beat him at the AO.
Djokovic will not lose a set from here on. He is going to put on sinner the beat down of beatdowns to shut all ths hype up and will humiliate Medvedev given medvedev has a virtual bye into the final jow zverev is spent physically. Somehow nadal has to turn the clock back so we at least have a rivalry worth watching.
 

3loudboys

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic will not lose a set from here on. He is going to put on sinner the beat down of beatdowns to shut all ths hype up and will humiliate Medvedev given medvedev has a virtual bye into the final jow zverev is spent physically. Somehow nadal has to turn the clock back so we at least have a rivalry worth watching.
Can’t see Novak losing it from here … just a greater tennis IQ, mental dominance and the ability to find a way when he’s up against it. In bo5 he’s different class and possibly the best athlete I’ve seen on a tennis court. Agree that Rafa would be a stronger challenge … but even he hasn’t beaten him on a HC in years.
 

jackson vile

G.O.A.T.
Be humble, this trophy can very easily be in someone else’s hands. Sinner is no joke and Novak had better bring out that apex level tennis and finish it as quickly as possible, or pay the price
 

messiahrobins

Hall of Fame
Can’t see Novak losing it from here … just a greater tennis IQ, mental dominance and the ability to find a way when he’s up against it. In bo5 he’s different class and possibly the best athlete I’ve seen on a tennis court. Agree that Rafa would be a stronger challenge … but even he hasn’t beaten him on a HC in years.
Agree with all that. Novak is arguanly the best athlete we have ever seen in terms of movement and longevity. Rafas issue was his greatest asset was his athleticism and stamina. He has the stamina still. The athelticism has gone though which means he likely can only be a threat to novak on clay now where he gets more time
The tennis iq point is where the young players are way down. Alcaraz and sinner especially poor in that regard.
 
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