First week yeah, in fact for the first 2 matches it will probably be 99.9% or something with the 0.1% accounting for freak occurrences like USO, there is as good as zero chance that players ranked that low can win in normal circumstances. Against Sinner, Medvedev and Alcaraz though it will probably be 70% or less
Who wins Australian open now
- Thread starter nolefam_2024
- Start date
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
Djokovic the favourite but alcaraz/sinner both have a great chance too. Not sure about Meddy as he’s taken a step back or been worked out a bit.
djokovic the conqueror
Professional
Djokovic. He’s the king of Australia and he’s on a mission to surpass Court in her country.
25 and counting. Idemo Nole!
25 and counting. Idemo Nole!
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
I thought the same about having to beat Alcaraz and Sinner in the semi and final of the ATP Finals. About facing Medvedev in the USO final. About facing Ruud in the FO final. About facing Tsitsipas in the AO final. Turned out that it didn’t faze the GOAT at all who won all these matches in straight sets.
dking68
Legend
The GOAT can’t beat Father Time. The GOAT will relinquish his AO crown by the latest AO 2025.
Aestheticsaboveallelse
Legend
I DUNNO ABOUT THAT!!!
Djokovic is as close to being a lock at the AO as he's ever going to be. That much is clear as he looks to follow up his 3-slams-PLUS-ATP-Finals season.
He's a double digit champion at that slam alone ffs.
If he isn't at the very least a 75% favorite to win it, idk, time for me to watch pickleball or something. The odds are against anyone who draws the great man on the other side of the court.
He's a double digit champion at that slam alone ffs.
If he isn't at the very least a 75% favorite to win it, idk, time for me to watch pickleball or something. The odds are against anyone who draws the great man on the other side of the court.
Aestheticsaboveallelse
Legend
I agree, nakichet's 40/60 is extremely pessimistic and clearly a self defense mechanism expecting Djokovic to fail so he can't feel let down if he loses
I would do the same lol if Novak was my guy. Understandable fan behavior but the reality is the man is walking in as the overwhelming favorite. If torn hammies and abs don't stop the man from bulldozing the field in two straight appearances at the event, then nothing will.
Jannik if anything I'm willing to bet he crumbles at the sight of him at RLA should he face Novak in the final anyway.
Prime BIG 3 couldn't touch him there. Jannik and Raz aren't going to do it there either. Not this year anyway.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic has won 3 of his last 4 AO finals in straight sets - enough said!
Two of them with a physically hampered body iirc. The guy has a better career at AO than most ATGs have overall.
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
Djokovic, Sinner, Alcaraz, Meddy are the front runners.
The actual wildcard here is Nadal. I’m not sure what he does.
If he plays a warm up in Brisbane, starts strong and gets through few rounds in the Australian open draw then he could surprise us with great run. It’s either that or it’s too early to play and he struggles early on before building form later in year.
The actual wildcard here is Nadal. I’m not sure what he does.
If he plays a warm up in Brisbane, starts strong and gets through few rounds in the Australian open draw then he could surprise us with great run. It’s either that or it’s too early to play and he struggles early on before building form later in year.
ryushen21
Legend
It's hard to discount Djokovic's chances at the AO. He has to be the favorite going in. Unless he gets injured or mired in another scandal/controversy.
Sinner is on the rise for sure. He's shown ability and resolve against his toughest opponents but a Slam always adds another intangible factor.
Alcaraz is going to continue to be a lingering threat. Even with his dip in performance lately, you'd have to be foolish to think he's sitting back and not preparing to show up ready.
As for anyone else, I always say that anyone can lose on any given day. And that seems to be even more the case in slams.
Sinner is on the rise for sure. He's shown ability and resolve against his toughest opponents but a Slam always adds another intangible factor.
Alcaraz is going to continue to be a lingering threat. Even with his dip in performance lately, you'd have to be foolish to think he's sitting back and not preparing to show up ready.
As for anyone else, I always say that anyone can lose on any given day. And that seems to be even more the case in slams.
Angrybirdstar
Semi-Pro
i've been saying this!
InsideOut900
Legend
He just beat Sinner, Raz and Rune in indoors conditions, with Sinner and Rune being close to their best. There is no one who can outmatch him in AO playing conditions, only him playing poorly and knocking himself out.
Benf15harp
Hall of Fame
He will play poorly.
THUNDERVOLLEY
G.O.A.T.
Probably the guy who won more majors than Federer & Nadal, and answers to the name "Djokovic".
Aestheticsaboveallelse
Legend
Lol the opposite is going to be closer to the truth
octobrina10
Talk Tennis Guru
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
Imagine that your idol gets Wawrinka in the first round, Shapovalov in the second round, FAA in the third round, Shelton in the fourth round, Zverev in the quarterfinals, Sinner in the semifinals and Alcaraz in the final, would your idol at his age survive that draw?
Rest of field 0%.
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
Go with the stats for the safe bet, go with Sinner for the big money gamble
D
Deleted member 758560
Guest
Nadal will do it, im sure about that
Aestheticsaboveallelse
Legend
Oh come on its impossible to be sure about Nadal winning it when he struggled even in 2022 when he went undefeated for a long time
D
Deleted member 758560
Guest
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
He is not winning any slam except RG 2024 where currently he should be third favorite.
As long as Djokovic is healthier than Nadal, he will not allow a single non RG slam to Nadal. And now we have alcaraz as well to use as a scare tactic.
In 2022 I foolishly believed that a combination of Zverev and Medvedev will be enough to stop Nadal. But these guys can't save themselves let alone beat nadal. So I am not going to wait for either Zverev Medvedev Sinner to be a savior but we can trust Nole and Alcaraz.
As long as one of these two is in the final, they will block Nadal guaranteed. Nothing the old bull will do vs these two at AO.
JoshDragon
Hall of Fame
Djokovic wins again. The question is who comes in second at the AO.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
We are down to 4
dking68
Legend
a10best
Legend
The odds are now;
Djokovic, but if he loses to Sinner
Medvedev, but if he loses to Zev
then Sinner.
I cannot pick Zev as winner due to his last slam final performance in the 5th set serving like Errani. Although, I wouldn't mind if he wins it because he will have played very well.
Djokovic, but if he loses to Sinner
Medvedev, but if he loses to Zev
then Sinner.
I cannot pick Zev as winner due to his last slam final performance in the 5th set serving like Errani. Although, I wouldn't mind if he wins it because he will have played very well.
jm1980
Talk Tennis Guru
Rune's AO appearances thus far:
2022: lost in first round to Kwon
2023: lost in fourth round to Rublev
2024: lost in second round to Cazaux
3loudboys
G.O.A.T.
Novak Djokovic. He’s in the heads of all the guys remaining. No matter how well the others have played to this point, facing the world no1 on Laver is like facing Rafa on Chatrier … an ordeal …. he’s the overwhelming favourite ... and he knows it. And at the business end of the tournament he’s ruthless tactically and will unpick Jannik in the semis and Med in the final. Only Father Time will beat him at the AO.
Smecz
Professional
Only Novak can win AO 2024
His special relationship with his friend Special Tree for 15 years, he gave him 10 wins in AO
He's probably already discussing tactics, I'm sure the tree will keep its fingers crossed
And if he wins, he will go with the cup to show off to his Special Friend...Hahaha
There will be so much Joy HaHaHa
His special relationship with his friend Special Tree for 15 years, he gave him 10 wins in AO
He's probably already discussing tactics, I'm sure the tree will keep its fingers crossed
And if he wins, he will go with the cup to show off to his Special Friend...Hahaha
There will be so much Joy
HaHaHa
dking68
Legend
@nolefam_2024 I expect Sinner to reach that number 2 ranking soon. I don’t see Alcaraz defending WB.
Carax
Hall of Fame
Your confidence is making me cautiously optimistic.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Wow
messiahrobins
Legend
Djokovic will not lose a set from here on. He is going to put on sinner the beat down of beatdowns to shut all ths hype up and will humiliate Medvedev given medvedev has a virtual bye into the final jow zverev is spent physically. Somehow nadal has to turn the clock back so we at least have a rivalry worth watching.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
You might be right.
messiahrobins
Legend
I predicred zverec v sinner final at the start of the event. However sinner is playing woeful stuff and had a weak draw and zverev is sadlynspent. Djokovic will win thisat a canter.
3loudboys
G.O.A.T.
Can’t see Novak losing it from here … just a greater tennis IQ, mental dominance and the ability to find a way when he’s up against it. In bo5 he’s different class and possibly the best athlete I’ve seen on a tennis court. Agree that Rafa would be a stronger challenge … but even he hasn’t beaten him on a HC in years.
3loudboys
G.O.A.T.
Med will beat Z.
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
Be humble, this trophy can very easily be in someone else’s hands. Sinner is no joke and Novak had better bring out that apex level tennis and finish it as quickly as possible, or pay the price
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Yes it's still open. I think Zverev won't win the trophy but other 3 can
messiahrobins
Legend
Agree with all that. Novak is arguanly the best athlete we have ever seen in terms of movement and longevity. Rafas issue was his greatest asset was his athleticism and stamina. He has the stamina still. The athelticism has gone though which means he likely can only be a threat to novak on clay now where he gets more time
The tennis iq point is where the young players are way down. Alcaraz and sinner especially poor in that regard.
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