Who's The Best Player in the World on Clay Right Now?

[NBP]

It’s no longer the days of Nadal dominance of the surface, so I think this title is up in the air, and has been since he last won the French. It’s tough to pick so let’s look at some stats...

I’ve chosen to highlight Nishikori, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Federer, Nadal & Murray, as they’re the only ones to have reached a clay Masters final or French final since 2014 (except Berdych & Monfils, who obviously aren’t worthy in this thread lol).

These numbers are based starting 2014, except for Murray whom I’ve started at 2015 for obvious reasons - he wasn’t a threat before ’15.

Stats

DJOKOVIC

W/L - 46-5 (90.19%) [loses to Federer, Nadal, Wawrinka, Vesely & Murray)

Titles (5) - Rome 2014 (d. Nadal), Monte-Carlo 2015 (d. Berdych), Rome 2015 (d. Federer), Madrid 2016 (d. Murray), Roland Garros 2016 (d. Murray)

Finals (3) - Roland Garros 2014, Roland Garros 2015, Rome 2016

MURRAY (Since 2015)

W/L - 35-4 (89.74%) [loses to Djokovic (x3), Nadal] < Insane, really

Titles (3) - Munich 2015 (d. Kohlschschshcshchschshreiber), Madrid 2015 (d. Nadal), Rome 2016 (d. Djokovic)

Finals (2) - Madrid 2016, Roland Garros 2016

FEDERER

W/L - 24-10 (70.58%) [loses to Wawrinka (x2), Chardy, Gulbis, Monfils (x2), Kyrgios, Djokovic, Tsonga & Thiem) < ew.

Titles (1) - Istanbul 2015 (d. Cuevas)

Finals (2) - Monte-Carlo 2014, Rome 2015

WAWRINKA

W/L - 31-11 (73.80%) [loses to Thiem, Haas, GGL, Dimitrov (x2), Federer, Delbonis, Nadal, Kyrgios, Monaco & Murray).

Titles (3) - Monte-Carlo 2014 (d. Federer), Roland Garros 2015 (d. Djokovic), Geneve 2016 (d. Cilic)

Finals (0)

NADAL

W/L - 72-13 (85.88%) [loses to Ferrer, Almagro, Djokovic (x4), Fognini, Murray (x2), Wawrinka, Thiem & Cuevas)

Titles (7) - Rio 2014 (d. Dolgo), Madrid 2014 (d. Nishikori), Roland Garros 2014 (d. Djokovic), Buenos Aires 2015 (d. Monaco), Hamburg 2015 (d. Fognini), Monte-Carlo 2016 (d. Monfils), Barcelona 2016 (d. Nishikori)

Finals (2) - Rome 2014, Madrid 2015

NISHIKORI

W/L - 41-11 (78.84%) [loses to Nadal (x2), Klizan, Murray, Djokovic (x3), Tsonga, Gasquet, Dolgo and Bellucci)

Titles (2) - Barcelona 2014 (d. Giraldo), Barcelona 2015 (d. Andujar)

Finals (3) - Madrid 2014, Barcelona 2015, Buenos Aires 2017

So, some things to take from this.

DJOKOVIC - Probably the closest thing we’ve seen to Nadal like dominance on the surface (clearly not as dominant). His only anomaly is the Vesely loss, all the rest to the top 5. 4 Masters Series, a Roland Garros title, and extra final. Really solid.

MURRAY - Transformation is mind-boggling. His only loses have come to Djokovic and Nadal (a match he actually really should have won). 2 Masters Series titles, a final, a Roland Garros final and SF (+ 2014 SF). It’s his best surface IMHO. Just see his level on this surface and compare it to hard and grass as of now.

FEDERER - a great fall from grace. But to his defence, even with this horrible W/L percentage, some of his losses can be explained. Chardy, he had MP and the twins just born. Gulbis he was 7-6 5-3 40-15 and an overhead that he misses. Kyrgios he had MP. But overall, he’s been pretty poor on clay. Right thing to skip 2017.

WAWRINKA - Has reached only 1 Masters SF (Rome 2015), but has won the French and backed it up with a SF the following year. Monte-Carlo win also shows his strengths, and has beaten Fed, Nadal and Djokovic on the surface since 2015.

NADAL - Not even close to his prime numbers. Also, his titles recently lack quality. Rio, Hamburg, Buenos Aires all had terrible fields. He shouldn’t have won Madrid in 2014 but did extremely well to win RG that year. Since, he’s been poor. His loses to Cuevas, Thiem, Fognini etc would have been unfathomable years back. Had a solid April last year but apart from that...

NISHIKORI - Here because he can play on the surface, but mentally and physically he can fall apart. Should have won Madrid, Capitulated in the 5th set vs. Tsonga at the French, was up in the final set tiebreak vs. Novak last Rome. If he gets his stuff together he can have another solid year. SF at both Madrid and Rome 2016, loses both to Djokovic.


So IMO, looking at all the stats and level of play over recent years, it of my view that Murray is the best clay courter in the world. I’m going to get mauled by this, but I just genuinely see how high his level can be, and his results back it up. Obviously you see Djokovic with a 90% ratio, titles EVERYWHERE, and its clearly very impressive. But I just dig Murray. Wawrinka can bring it, and has proved the French wasn’t a fluke. Nadal is being incredibly overrated to walk the French this year. His 2017 HC start is near identical to 2014, and look how he struggled the hell through that clay-court season. Lost to Ferrer and Almagro (!) ffs, and then should have lost to Nishikori, and then had 3 setters against Youzhny, Simon and Murray at Rome. He brought it for the French with two incredible performances in the SF and F, but he was also 3 years younger. I say max he gets is a Masters title and Barca. The only way he wins the French is by beating guys outside the top 5. He isn’t beating Djokovic, Murray nor Wawrinka. I’m being a little harsh perhaps, but we can revisit this come June. As for Fed, my man should just relax, come French Open, and just use that as batting practise. He still has a level (as MC and Rome finals show), but he can’t sustain it. His best clay match since 2012 was the Gasquet DC final. If he can play like that, he has a chance to go into the 2nd week.


SOO YEAH GUYS I MEAN, it’s an interesting debate and don’t jump on me for picking Murray, its just my view.

 

[Mr.Lob]

Best on clay RIGHT NOW? Fed is playing the best RIGHT NOW! So I'll go with him until somebody can beat him.

 

[VexlanderPrime]

Voted Nadal b/c he's the KOC and he's in solid general form atm and we have no clue what Djoker's form is. So default goes to Nadal. Completely out the window if 2016 Djoker reappears.

 

[Meles]

It’s no longer the days of Nadal dominance of the surface, so I think this title is up in the air, and has been since he last won the French. It’s tough to pick so let’s look at some stats...

I’ve chosen to highlight Nishikori, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Federer, Nadal & Murray, as they’re the only ones to have reached a clay Masters final or French final since 2014 (except Berdych & Monfils, who obviously aren’t worthy in this thread lol).

These numbers are based starting 2014, except for Murray whom I’ve started at 2015 for obvious reasons - he wasn’t a threat before ’15.

Stats

DJOKOVIC

W/L - 46-5 (90.19%) [loses to Federer, Nadal, Wawrinka, Vesely & Murray)

Titles (5) - Rome 2014 (d. Nadal), Monte-Carlo 2015 (d. Berdych), Rome 2015 (d. Federer), Madrid 2016 (d. Murray), Roland Garros 2016 (d. Murray)

Finals (3) - Roland Garros 2014, Roland Garros 2015, Rome 2016

MURRAY (Since 2015)

W/L - 35-4 (89.74%) [loses to Djokovic (x3), Nadal] < Insane, really

Titles (3) - Munich 2015 (d. Kohlschschshcshchschshreiber), Madrid 2015 (d. Nadal), Rome 2016 (d. Djokovic)

Finals (2) - Madrid 2016, Roland Garros 2016

FEDERER

W/L - 24-10 (70.58%) [loses to Wawrinka (x2), Chardy, Gulbis, Monfils (x2), Kyrgios, Djokovic, Tsonga & Thiem) < ew.

Titles (1) - Istanbul 2015 (d. Cuevas)

Finals (2) - Monte-Carlo 2014, Rome 2015

WAWRINKA

W/L - 31-11 (73.80%) [loses to Thiem, Haas, GGL, Dimitrov (x2), Federer, Delbonis, Nadal, Kyrgios, Monaco & Murray).

Titles (3) - Monte-Carlo 2014 (d. Federer), Roland Garros 2015 (d. Djokovic), Geneve 2016 (d. Cilic)

Finals (0)

NADAL

W/L - 72-13 (85.88%) [loses to Ferrer, Almagro, Djokovic (x4), Fognini, Murray (x2), Wawrinka, Thiem & Cuevas)

Titles (7) - Rio 2014 (d. Dolgo), Madrid 2014 (d. Nishikori), Roland Garros 2014 (d. Djokovic), Buenos Aires 2015 (d. Monaco), Hamburg 2015 (d. Fognini), Monte-Carlo 2016 (d. Monfils), Barcelona 2016 (d. Nishikori)

Finals (2) - Rome 2014, Madrid 2015

NISHIKORI

W/L - 41-11 (78.84%) [loses to Nadal (x2), Klizan, Murray, Djokovic (x3), Tsonga, Gasquet, Dolgo and Bellucci)

Titles (2) - Barcelona 2014 (d. Giraldo), Barcelona 2015 (d. Andujar)

Finals (3) - Madrid 2014, Barcelona 2015, Buenos Aires 2017

So, some things to take from this.

DJOKOVIC - Probably the closest thing we’ve seen to Nadal like dominance on the surface (clearly not as dominant). His only anomaly is the Vesely loss, all the rest to the top 5. 4 Masters Series, a Roland Garros title, and extra final. Really solid.

MURRAY - Transformation is mind-boggling. His only loses have come to Djokovic and Nadal (a match he actually really should have won). 2 Masters Series titles, a final, a Roland Garros final and SF (+ 2014 SF). It’s his best surface IMHO. Just see his level on this surface and compare it to hard and grass as of now.

FEDERER - a great fall from grace. But to his defence, even with this horrible W/L percentage, some of his losses can be explained. Chardy, he had MP and the twins just born. Gulbis he was 7-6 5-3 40-15 and an overhead that he misses. Kyrgios he had MP. But overall, he’s been pretty poor on clay. Right thing to skip 2017.

WAWRINKA - Has reached only 1 Masters SF (Rome 2015), but has won the French and backed it up with a SF the following year. Monte-Carlo win also shows his strengths, and has beaten Fed, Nadal and Djokovic on the surface since 2015.

NADAL - Not even close to his prime numbers. Also, his titles recently lack quality. Rio, Hamburg, Buenos Aires all had terrible fields. He shouldn’t have won Madrid in 2014 but did extremely well to win RG that year. Since, he’s been poor. His loses to Cuevas, Thiem, Fognini etc would have been unfathomable years back. Had a solid April last year but apart from that...

NISHIKORI - Here because he can play on the surface, but mentally and physically he can fall apart. Should have won Madrid, Capitulated in the 5th set vs. Tsonga at the French, was up in the final set tiebreak vs. Novak last Rome. If he gets his stuff together he can have another solid year. SF at both Madrid and Rome 2016, loses both to Djokovic.


So IMO, looking at all the stats and level of play over recent years, it of my view that Murray is the best clay courter in the world. I’m going to get mauled by this, but I just genuinely see how high his level can be, and his results back it up. Obviously you see Djokovic with a 90% ratio, titles EVERYWHERE, and its clearly very impressive. But I just dig Murray. Wawrinka can bring it, and has proved the French wasn’t a fluke. Nadal is being incredibly overrated to walk the French this year. His 2017 HC start is near identical to 2014, and look how he struggled the hell through that clay-court season. Lost to Ferrer and Almagro (!) ffs, and then should have lost to Nishikori, and then had 3 setters against Youzhny, Simon and Murray at Rome. He brought it for the French with two incredible performances in the SF and F, but he was also 3 years younger. I say max he gets is a Masters title and Barca. The only way he wins the French is by beating guys outside the top 5. He isn’t beating Djokovic, Murray nor Wawrinka. I’m being a little harsh perhaps, but we can revisit this come June. As for Fed, my man should just relax, come French Open, and just use that as batting practise. He still has a level (as MC and Rome finals show), but he can’t sustain it. His best clay match since 2012 was the Gasquet DC final. If he can play like that, he has a chance to go into the 2nd week.


SOO YEAH GUYS I MEAN, it’s an interesting debate and don’t jump on me for picking Murray, its just my view.

Thiem and he smoked Afraiderer on clay last year to boot making him drop out of the French.

Spoiler

Probably the reason Fed is skipping the brunt of the clay season too, plus Zverev would be no joke for him on clay.

On the options provided:
Nishikori - terrible stats in South America run plus a bit tattered coming out of Miami.
Djokovic - massively declined from last year, but still a threat
Clayray - haven't seen recent news on elbow, but rumors of six weeks off were showing up when he dropped out of Miami. By RG if the elbow issue goes away Murray should be a big threat; might even peak at the right time if he's got a light schedule coming in.
Wawrinka - until RG he's not the best, but good chance he'll find form for Munich and RG and could win it.
Federer - not sure if Fed's new confidence can reverse years of decline in his clay court return game. Its possible, but I dont' see Fed surviving five set matches as easily as Australia.
Nadal - seems up and down a lot and his performance against Federer in Miami and IW was pretty awful. Nadal had cake draws at Acapulco and Miami, so not sure he's really got great momentum coming into clay season this year. It was interesting too that he fore went the South American clay court swing entirely.

Thiem was just outside of this group last year and is coming into the clay season with reasonable momentum. Given that all of the above are in shakey form it may be Thiem's year to shine and end up with the most points on clay.

Expecting a lot from Zverev, but come the French doubt he has the stamina to go really deep. Made his first final at Nice last year so clay may be his best surface right now (or grass, but hard courts is his worst.) A huge spoiler for all of these players.

 

[Meles]

It’s no longer the days of Nadal dominance of the surface, so I think this title is up in the air, and has been since he last won the French. It’s tough to pick so let’s look at some stats...

I’ve chosen to highlight Nishikori, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Federer, Nadal & Murray, as they’re the only ones to have reached a clay Masters final or French final since 2014 (except Berdych & Monfils, who obviously aren’t worthy in this thread lol).

These numbers are based starting 2014, except for Murray whom I’ve started at 2015 for obvious reasons - he wasn’t a threat before ’15.

Stats

DJOKOVIC

W/L - 46-5 (90.19%) [loses to Federer, Nadal, Wawrinka, Vesely & Murray)

Titles (5) - Rome 2014 (d. Nadal), Monte-Carlo 2015 (d. Berdych), Rome 2015 (d. Federer), Madrid 2016 (d. Murray), Roland Garros 2016 (d. Murray)

Finals (3) - Roland Garros 2014, Roland Garros 2015, Rome 2016

MURRAY (Since 2015)

W/L - 35-4 (89.74%) [loses to Djokovic (x3), Nadal] < Insane, really

Titles (3) - Munich 2015 (d. Kohlschschshcshchschshreiber), Madrid 2015 (d. Nadal), Rome 2016 (d. Djokovic)

Finals (2) - Madrid 2016, Roland Garros 2016

FEDERER

W/L - 24-10 (70.58%) [loses to Wawrinka (x2), Chardy, Gulbis, Monfils (x2), Kyrgios, Djokovic, Tsonga & Thiem) < ew.

Titles (1) - Istanbul 2015 (d. Cuevas)

Finals (2) - Monte-Carlo 2014, Rome 2015

WAWRINKA

W/L - 31-11 (73.80%) [loses to Thiem, Haas, GGL, Dimitrov (x2), Federer, Delbonis, Nadal, Kyrgios, Monaco & Murray).

Titles (3) - Monte-Carlo 2014 (d. Federer), Roland Garros 2015 (d. Djokovic), Geneve 2016 (d. Cilic)

Finals (0)

NADAL

W/L - 72-13 (85.88%) [loses to Ferrer, Almagro, Djokovic (x4), Fognini, Murray (x2), Wawrinka, Thiem & Cuevas)

Titles (7) - Rio 2014 (d. Dolgo), Madrid 2014 (d. Nishikori), Roland Garros 2014 (d. Djokovic), Buenos Aires 2015 (d. Monaco), Hamburg 2015 (d. Fognini), Monte-Carlo 2016 (d. Monfils), Barcelona 2016 (d. Nishikori)

Finals (2) - Rome 2014, Madrid 2015

NISHIKORI

W/L - 41-11 (78.84%) [loses to Nadal (x2), Klizan, Murray, Djokovic (x3), Tsonga, Gasquet, Dolgo and Bellucci)

Titles (2) - Barcelona 2014 (d. Giraldo), Barcelona 2015 (d. Andujar)

Finals (3) - Madrid 2014, Barcelona 2015, Buenos Aires 2017

So, some things to take from this.

DJOKOVIC - Probably the closest thing we’ve seen to Nadal like dominance on the surface (clearly not as dominant). His only anomaly is the Vesely loss, all the rest to the top 5. 4 Masters Series, a Roland Garros title, and extra final. Really solid.

MURRAY - Transformation is mind-boggling. His only loses have come to Djokovic and Nadal (a match he actually really should have won). 2 Masters Series titles, a final, a Roland Garros final and SF (+ 2014 SF). It’s his best surface IMHO. Just see his level on this surface and compare it to hard and grass as of now.

FEDERER - a great fall from grace. But to his defence, even with this horrible W/L percentage, some of his losses can be explained. Chardy, he had MP and the twins just born. Gulbis he was 7-6 5-3 40-15 and an overhead that he misses. Kyrgios he had MP. But overall, he’s been pretty poor on clay. Right thing to skip 2017.

WAWRINKA - Has reached only 1 Masters SF (Rome 2015), but has won the French and backed it up with a SF the following year. Monte-Carlo win also shows his strengths, and has beaten Fed, Nadal and Djokovic on the surface since 2015.

NADAL - Not even close to his prime numbers. Also, his titles recently lack quality. Rio, Hamburg, Buenos Aires all had terrible fields. He shouldn’t have won Madrid in 2014 but did extremely well to win RG that year. Since, he’s been poor. His loses to Cuevas, Thiem, Fognini etc would have been unfathomable years back. Had a solid April last year but apart from that...

NISHIKORI - Here because he can play on the surface, but mentally and physically he can fall apart. Should have won Madrid, Capitulated in the 5th set vs. Tsonga at the French, was up in the final set tiebreak vs. Novak last Rome. If he gets his stuff together he can have another solid year. SF at both Madrid and Rome 2016, loses both to Djokovic.


So IMO, looking at all the stats and level of play over recent years, it of my view that Murray is the best clay courter in the world. I’m going to get mauled by this, but I just genuinely see how high his level can be, and his results back it up. Obviously you see Djokovic with a 90% ratio, titles EVERYWHERE, and its clearly very impressive. But I just dig Murray. Wawrinka can bring it, and has proved the French wasn’t a fluke. Nadal is being incredibly overrated to walk the French this year. His 2017 HC start is near identical to 2014, and look how he struggled the hell through that clay-court season. Lost to Ferrer and Almagro (!) ffs, and then should have lost to Nishikori, and then had 3 setters against Youzhny, Simon and Murray at Rome. He brought it for the French with two incredible performances in the SF and F, but he was also 3 years younger. I say max he gets is a Masters title and Barca. The only way he wins the French is by beating guys outside the top 5. He isn’t beating Djokovic, Murray nor Wawrinka. I’m being a little harsh perhaps, but we can revisit this come June. As for Fed, my man should just relax, come French Open, and just use that as batting practise. He still has a level (as MC and Rome finals show), but he can’t sustain it. His best clay match since 2012 was the Gasquet DC final. If he can play like that, he has a chance to go into the 2nd week.


SOO YEAH GUYS I MEAN, it’s an interesting debate and don’t jump on me for picking Murray, its just my view.

I kept having to check the date of the OP to make sure it wasn't 2016. You seem to have blinders for Monte Carlo which is a masters 1000; Wawrinka beat Federer in the final in 2014 and Nadal won it nicely last year (2016). I'm not sure why on earth your are dredging up Nadal's 2015 season. 2016 is the barometer and Nadal had no bad losses on the surface and it turns out faded after Monte Carlo with injury which eventually forced his withdrawal from the French.

Probably a good call on Murray, but I'd rate him and Nadal very close. Monte Carlo is going to be a real shoot out with Djokoray coming in after skipping Miami and a very shakey 2017 season. Zverev and Thiem will be very interesting to watch against such a weakish field (not in form except perhaps Nadal.)

 

[InsideOut900]

35 is the age of miracles, so beware

 

[cc0509]

Isn't Djokovic the holder of the FO title? How can you say anybody other than Djokovic as he is the last person to win the FO, you know the clay slam!
We won't know which player is the best on clay this year until clay season gets underway.

And lol @Meles for suggesting Thiem is the current best on clay. Did I miss some Challenger tournament he won on clay? Meles,the OP asked which player is the CURRENT best on clay(not which player will end being the best of clay after the 2017 FO) and that label can only go to the holder of the FO. How can we know anything else until the actual clay season starts? Who cares about South American piddly tournaments.

 

[Meles]

Isn't Djokovic the holder of the FO title? How can you say anybody other than Djokovic as he is the last person to win the FO, you know the clay slam!
We won't know which player is the best on clay this year until clay season gets underway.

And lol @Meles for suggesting Thiem is the current best on clay. Did I miss some Challenger tournament he won on clay? Meles,the OP asked which player is the CURRENT best on clay(not which player will end being the best of clay after the 2017 FO) and that label can only go to the holder of the FO. How can we know anything else until the actual clay season starts? Who cares about South American piddly tournaments.

Saying Djokovic is the best player on clay right now is pretty laughable. His game is down hugely and clay isn't going to suddenly find him back in FO winning form.

If you want to get technical. Thiem is the current best player on clay in 2017. Check the ATP stats for 2017 for whats that worth; Thiem has won 56.6% of his clay court points; Nishikori 51.6%. The closest player to Thiem is 3% back.

By your own simplistic criteria Thiem making SF last year at French automatically should have had him in the list. Monte Carlo will have everyone in action except for Nishikori who already has failed to win two clay court events this year. We should have a much better guage of things after Monte Carlo.

 

[Waspsting]

We won't know which player is the best on clay this year until clay season gets underway.

Agree 100%

the CURRENT best on clay(not which player will end being the best of clay after the 2017 FO) and that label can only go to the holder of the FO

Disagree. That was a year ago, not CURRENT. Djokovic was the reigning Australian, Indian Wells and Miami champion as well, but I don't think he was the best player on slow hard courts or hard courts this January.

---

Going by the play we've seen this year and subjectively imposing it onto clay, I'd actually say Federer is probably the best player on clay right now. But the best answer is @cc0509 's first take

 

[cc0509]

Saying Djokovic is the best player on clay right now is pretty laughable. His game is down hugely and clay isn't going to suddenly find him back in FO winning form.

If you want to get technical. Thiem is the current best player on clay in 2017. Check the ATP stats for 2017 for whats that worth; Thiem has won 56.6% of his clay court points; Nishikori 51.6%. The closest player to Thiem is 3% back.

By your own simplistic criteria Thiem making SF last year at French automatically should have had him in the list. Monte Carlo will have everyone in action except for Nishikori who already has failed to win two clay court events this year. We should have a much better guage of things after Monte Carlo.

Djokovic is the holder of the FO, thus technically he is the current best clay court player! That's how it works. Until we see which player looks the best during THIS clay season, you have to go with the holder of the clay slam!

How do you know Djokovic's game is down on clay when he hasn't played anything on clay yet? Who cares if Thiem or Nishikori, who is injured every five minutes, won some no-name clay tournaments in S.America in 2017? How do you know Djokovic isn't going to find form before the FO? I'm not a Djokovic fan but some of these claims are stupid. He indeed could get into some great clay form in time for the FO. I'm a Fed fan but some of these threads about Federer winning the FO are nauseating. He's not winning the FO and if he does you can bump this post to embarrass me. There are many players (not just Big Four players) who could knock him out of that tournament! It's almost as bad as the hype after Murray's great 2016 where people had him winning the CYGS in 2017 including you! There's no grey area with some fans on this forum, it's all or nothing.

Can we wait until after the FO this year to see which player is the best on clay? I can almost guarantee you it won't be Thiem.

 

[cc0509]

Disagree. That was a year ago, not CURRENT. Djokovic was the reigning Australian, Indian Wells and Miami champion as well, but I don't think he was the best player on slow hard courts or hard courts this January.

---

Going by the play we've seen this year and subjectively imposing it onto clay, I'd actually say Federer is probably the best player on clay right now. But the best answer is @cc0509 's first take

But we didn't know Djokovic wasn't the best on slow hc until AFTER the AO. Before the AO since he was the holder of that title he was technically the best until he was knocked out. You see what I'm saying? The holder of the slam is technically the best until he isn't.

As for Federer, I honestly and truly can't see him being the best on clay, not even with his impeccable current form. I think some people are loco to suggest it. He may not even play the FO. He said he will "probably" play it. He doesn't sound convinced he can win the FO. Can you ever imagine a healthy Federer would say that about Wimbledon?

 

[Waspsting]

But we didn't know Djokovic wasn't the best on slow hc until AFTER the AO. Before the AO since he was the holder of that title he was technically the best until he was knocked out. You see what I'm saying? The holder of the slam is technically the best until he isn't.

I wasn't looking at it from a technical perspective, more a subjective assessment one (from a technical perspective, I agree with you). For example, Sampras would have technically been the best grass court player going into the grass season in 2001 but having watched him play (not even on grass), I didn't think he was at all.

As for Federer, I honestly and truly can't see him being the best on clay, not even with his impeccable current form. I think some people are loco to suggest it. He may not even play the FO. He said he will "probably" play it. He doesn't sound convinced he can win the FO. Can you ever imagine a healthy Federer would say that about Wimbledon?

Pro-Federer opinions are so often childish fancies and whims that I hesitated to put that opinion down for fear of being put in the "loco" box. Then I figured, its the opinion I have and I know my reasoning behind it... it'd be cowardly not to.

Again, looking at the matter from a subjective assessment (along with reasoned speculation on how that would translate onto clay), he's playing well and he's playing a game that would fit on clay. And I have 0 information on the usual suspects - Djokovic, Murray. I agree with you about his own potential misgivings - and have noted as much on other threads.

 

[KINGROGER]

Djokovic > Murray > Wawrinka > Nadal > Thiem

 

[MasturB]

Fedr looked good on clay last year. Monte Carlo was his first tournament since AO that year so rust was to be expected but he should have beaten Tsonga.

In Rome his back was so bad he was dropshotting almost every other point. It was not good.

2015 we forget he did make it to quarters lost to Wawa at RG and made Rome final. Silly to think he's not gonna be good when if healthy he's still one of the best clay players in the world.

 

[Gary Duane]

Nadal - seems up and down a lot and his performance against Federer in Miami and IW was pretty awful. Nadal had cake draws at Acapulco and Miami, so not sure he's really got great momentum coming into clay season this year. It was interesting too that he fore went the South American clay court swing entirely.

I have a totally different read on Nadal this year. If you examine his career really carefully you will see that anytime he has made a really serious attempt to win on HCs in the spring he has concentrated on HCs before going into the clay season. The fact that he stuck to HCs this year may be a positive that people are not yet understanding.

Furthermore, Nadal was winning 82% of his service games in 2016 on HCs, around 7% below his two best years on HCs.

He's back up to 88% this years on HCs on serving.

We won't know more before we see him in a couple M1000s.

Keep a REALLY close look this year at his games. If he gets to 63% of games and stays there, he's a heavy favorite again at RG. In fact, up to RG he has a good shot with 60% of games or better and 84% of service games or better. Watch points, should be around 55% of points.

If he doesn't reach that level and stay there, RG is wide open...

 

[ComeBackKimiko]

Stanimal. No need for further discussion.
But will Stanimal appear at RG? Considering the glaring weaknesses in all other contenders, as mentioned in this thread, you'd have to think Wawrinka fancies his chances to seize another FO enough to unleash the beast.
Having more FOs than Novak or Roger would be quite the plum in Stan's cap.

 

[Sentinel]

Isn't Djokovic the holder of the FO title? How can you say anybody other than Djokovic as he is the last person to win the FO, you know the clay slam!
We won't know which player is the best on clay this year until clay season gets underway.

And lol @Meles for suggesting Thiem is the current best on clay. Did I miss some Challenger tournament he won on clay? Meles,the OP asked which player is the CURRENT best on clay(not which player will end being the best of clay after the 2017 FO) and that label can only go to the holder of the FO. How can we know anything else until the actual clay season starts? Who cares about South American piddly tournaments.

Right now , you say, and then tell us who was the best 12 months back
I don't think we really know (i agree with that part of your post)

 

[KINGROGER]

Fedr looked good on clay last year. Monte Carlo was his first tournament since AO that year so rust was to be expected but he should have beaten Tsonga.

In Rome his back was so bad he was dropshotting almost every other point. It was not good.

2015 we forget he did make it to quarters lost to Wawa at RG and made Rome final. Silly to think he's not gonna be good when if healthy he's still one of the best clay players in the world.

I agree and think he's making a mistake not playing any clay masters. The field is as open ever. He was only stopped by peak Djokovic at Rome 2015, and Stanimal at MC 2014 and he's playing as well as those years this year if not better.

His knee is going to be bad when he's only had surgery a couple months prior. He's fully healed now so there's 0 reason clay should affect his knee badly more than any other surface.

 

[MasturB]

I think he should play one clay master.

But I am not gonna question him after he took 6 months off and the first tournament he plays in he happens to win at Melbourne.

 

[Gazelle]

Fedr looked good on clay last year. Monte Carlo was his first tournament since AO that year so rust was to be expected but he should have beaten Tsonga.

In Rome his back was so bad he was dropshotting almost every other point. It was not good.

2015 we forget he did make it to quarters lost to Wawa at RG and made Rome final. Silly to think he's not gonna be good when if healthy he's still one of the best clay players in the world.

His claygame has really detoriated together with his baseline game past few years...

but he seems to have refound his baseline game, so maybe he can be a force again on clay

Not sure if the aggressive tactics will pay off enough though

 

[Sartorius]

I have a totally different read on Nadal this year. If you examine his career really carefully you will see that anytime he has made a really serious attempt to win on HCs in the spring he has concentrated on HCs before going into the clay season. The fact that he stuck to HCs this year may be a positive that people are not yet understanding.

Furthermore, Nadal was winning 82% of his service games in 2016 on HCs, around 7% below his two best years on HCs.

He's back up to 88% this years on HCs on serving.

We won't know more before we see him in a couple M1000s.

Keep a REALLY close look this year at his games. If he gets to 63% of games and stays there, he's a heavy favorite again at RG. In fact, up to RG he has a good shot with 60% of games or better and 84% of service games or better. Watch points, should be around 55% of points.

If he doesn't reach that level and stay there, RG is wide open...

Good insight.

Hence, re title: it doesn't matter. Murray & Djokovic haven't played much this year, that might backfire on them. You may think Nadal is not the best player, but he's going to be the man to beat in all upcoming tournaments.

 

[MasturB]

I think hardcourts have helped Rafa sustain shorter time on court this year.

He's not gonna be able to end points quickly on clay and he doesn't move and defend as well as he used to do in his clay prime.

I think with his scheduling he's gonna wear himself out before Roland Garros unfortunately.

 

[KINGROGER]

His claygame has really detoriated together with his baseline game past few years...

but he seems to have refound his baseline game, so maybe he can be a force again on clay

Not sure if the aggressive tactics will pay off enough though

So how did he reach MC 2014 final, Rome 2015 final and win Istanbul in 2015?

 

[Sysyphus]

You can already pencil Nadal in there, and IMO also Stan as he's bringing it on a more consistent basis this year, and clay should fall nicely into his wheelhouse*. Muzz and Noél are question marks — could be right back on top or could struggle more. Thiem should be a threat to the best, though Meles proclaiming him to already be the very best on the surface on the back of MUGo de Janeiro open is of course hilarious and expected. Interested to see what Zverev and Kyrgios and Dimitrov will manage on the surface this year. I fear Nishikori may be stumbling.


* My gut feels that things are lining up for a Slaminal run for the title this year at the French.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

Novak, without a shadow of a doubt.

 

[DreddyTennis45]

Murray.

 

[Bartelby]

I was just about to write this. We have a clay season over the next two months precisely to ascertain who is the best on clay. Djokovic was the best, but we all know what's happened there.

Right now , you say, and then tell us who was the best 12 months back
I don't think we really know (i agree with that part of your post)

 

[SinjinCooper]

Dunno.

Anyone pretending they do is full of ****.

 

[Meles]

You can already pencil Nadal in there, and IMO also Stan as he's bringing it on a more consistent basis this year, and clay should fall nicely into his wheelhouse*. Muzz and Noél are question marks — could be right back on top or could struggle more. Thiem should be a threat to the best, though Meles proclaiming him to already be the very best on the surface on the back of MUGo de Janeiro open is of course hilarious and expected. Interested to see what Zverev and Kyrgios and Dimitrov will manage on the surface this year. I fear Nishikori may be stumbling.


* My gut feels that things are lining up for a Slaminal run for the title this year at the French.

I"ve been especially chippy in this thread given OP did not include Thiem in poll. Rio was a nice run, but Thiem won around 60% of points at Nice last year. I suppose that was a sign that his game was picking up and he had a great streak of play until unexpectedly falling apart at Halle against goating Florian Mayer. I am optimistic about Thiem's chances because he is playing better than last year while everyone else (save Fed at RG) is playing worse.

The elephant in the room is Nadal, but I think we all somehow sense something is amiss with Rafa; nobody is trumpeting Rafa despite on paper he's got everything going for him this year. He's looked so bad against Fed that he really seems declined. This may all be his confidence game or age where he's up or down a bit. I'm amazed not one is really trumpeting Nadal in this thread.

 

[Meles]

Dunno.

Anyone pretending they do is full of ****.

Well last year we had few surprises and it all seemed pretty predictable before and after the season. I agree on this year; its wide open. We have no idea if the top players will get back into strong form, so we must wait.

Federer is the exception, but now his abscence until RG even clouds his prospects. I wonder at Federer's unhealthy obsession with Wimbledon. He probably cost himself 2016 US Open by putting everything into Wimby 2016. Now he has an incredible shot for amazing ATG glory at the French Open and another US Open, but once again its Wimbledon. He owns Nadal this year; its shocking he's almost ceded the clay season given the hope of beating him on clay.

Its funny how Nadal claims hard courts have been hard on him, yet how many times has he fallen apart after the clay season? Maybe Fed is extremely wise to limit his play? Thiem too really did himself in on clay last year. He somehow won Stuttgart, but was leaking oil badly with something like 26 DFs at the event. I'm not sure he's even recovered now. Djokovic's game fell off a cliff after big run on clay last year too.

 

[Mazz Retic]

Great post and I think you have convinced me that murray is probably the best clay courter right now. I still have huge doubts he can win the FO but he might have perfect timing coming back from injury.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

I kept having to check the date of the OP to make sure it wasn't 2016. You seem to have blinders for Monte Carlo which is a masters 1000; Wawrinka beat Federer in the final in 2014 and Nadal won it nicely last year (2016). I'm not sure why on earth your are dredging up Nadal's 2015 season. 2016 is the barometer and Nadal had no bad losses on the surface and it turns out faded after Monte Carlo with injury which eventually forced his withdrawal from the French.

Probably a good call on Murray, but I'd rate him and Nadal very close. Monte Carlo is going to be a real shoot out with Djokoray coming in after skipping Miami and a very shakey 2017 season. Zverev and Thiem will be very interesting to watch against such a weakish field (not in form except perhaps Nadal.)

I think Thiem can establish himself as top 4 in the world on clay and perhaps higher.

I still be1ieve he can win RG!

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Novak, without a shadow of a doubt.

Based on last year's accomplishments, but he's simply not the same guy anymore.

I mean we would have expected him to dominate the slow HCs too, right?

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Great post and I think you have convinced me that murray is probably the best clay courter right now. I still have huge doubts he can win the FO but he might have perfect timing coming back from injury.

What exactly has Murray accomplished in 2017 to make him the best clay counter RIGHT NOW?

 

[Noelan]

OP posted numbers from 2014 till 2016 (to show some better results to certain players) still his question is ....on clay now?
From before mentined only Nishikori played and done nothing , lost to Belluci in R1

 

[Krish872007]

Right NOW, probably Thiem or Cuevas - both have won titles on the surface this year (February). Cuevas currently on a 4-match winning streak on clay. Has any top player even played on the surface yet this year?

 

[smoledman]

Thiem will slay the clay in 2017!

 

[cc0509]

Right now , you say, and then tell us who was the best 12 months back
I don't think we really know (i agree with that part of your post)

I know it seems silly to say Djokovic as the winner of the 2016 FO is the best clay player now but until we see what happens at the 2017 clay warm-ups and the FO, it's the truth. Those silly clay court tournaments in S.America don't count for much IMO as most of the best players don't play those tournaments.

For sure though realistically, we don't really know. I have no idea what's going to happen on clay this season. How many times have we said that in the past decade? Zero times?

 

[cc0509]

Based on last year's accomplishments, but he's simply not the same guy anymore.

I mean we would have expected him to dominate the slow HCs too, right?

But that has nothing to do with how Djokovic will show up on clay. It may be that he will continue his lacklustre play and lose every clay tournament or he could show up in good form and win some of the warm-ups and/or the FO. We simply don't have enough information yet either way.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Traditionally, the best clay court player is considered the defending FO champion, so the nod goes to Novak. Let's see what his clay form is before really judging.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Saying Djokovic is the best player on clay right now is pretty laughable. His game is down hugely and clay isn't going to suddenly find him back in FO winning form.

Yes, but he will find back his winning form at FO.

 

[Meles]

Yes, but he will find back his winning form at FO.

Its possible and he looks like he has the desire on court, but he's going to be a lot more vulnerable. Djoko likes to find his top form at end of tournament, but with his current level he's getting picked off early much too often. He'll need a deep run at Madrid or Rome to get into some decent form.

 

[every7]

Barring injury:

Nadal is the best, closely followed by wawrinka, then Thiem with Murray, Djokovic and Federer all in the converation.

Strangely enough, I think the best in the world on the rarer faster, lower bouncing clay (i.e. Munich, Madrid etc. etc.) is actually Murray.

 

[Sentinel]

Yes, but he will find back his winning form at FO.

Until he chances upon this ...

Spoiler: only for mature audiences ...

 

[falstaff78]

Great work on the thread.

Based on your numbers Djokovic is probably the best. 2014 and 2015 stats are not super relevant i think.

I voted Djokovic nonetheless

 

[noobforehand20]

well right now you could say nishikori, since he is the highest ranked player with a tittle on clay already...

 

[xFullCourtTenniSx]

Anytime Nadal is top 3, I'll pick him. And last I checked, he's #2 in the race to London. Only two players who can change my mind are Djokovic and Federer. The former has been awol while the latter still has to prove himself against Nadal on clay but has opted out of all events before the French Open.

 

[helterskelter]

Nadal will almost certainly be the dominant player of the clay-court season. Doubt Zverev will do much until grass. Thiem can be a threat, but I'm not sure he's improved much since 2016.

Still think Dimitrov is far better now than he was in 2014?

Thiem and he smoked Afraiderer on clay last year to boot making him drop out of the French.

Spoiler

Probably the reason Fed is skipping the brunt of the clay season too, plus Zverev would be no joke for him on clay.

On the options provided:
Nishikori - terrible stats in South America run plus a bit tattered coming out of Miami.
Djokovic - massively declined from last year, but still a threat
Clayray - haven't seen recent news on elbow, but rumors of six weeks off were showing up when he dropped out of Miami. By RG if the elbow issue goes away Murray should be a big threat; might even peak at the right time if he's got a light schedule coming in.
Wawrinka - until RG he's not the best, but good chance he'll find form for Munich and RG and could win it.
Federer - not sure if Fed's new confidence can reverse years of decline in his clay court return game. Its possible, but I dont' see Fed surviving five set matches as easily as Australia.
Nadal - seems up and down a lot and his performance against Federer in Miami and IW was pretty awful. Nadal had cake draws at Acapulco and Miami, so not sure he's really got great momentum coming into clay season this year. It was interesting too that he fore went the South American clay court swing entirely.

Thiem was just outside of this group last year and is coming into the clay season with reasonable momentum. Given that all of the above are in shakey form it may be Thiem's year to shine and end up with the most points on clay.

Expecting a lot from Zverev, but come the French doubt he has the stamina to go really deep. Made his first final at Nice last year so clay may be his best surface right now (or grass, but hard courts is his worst.) A huge spoiler for all of these players.

 

[Sentinel]

Yes, but he will find back his winning form at FO.

Rafa will be "tearing it to pieces". Just you all watch.

LA DECIMA, here we come !!!

 

[Meles]

Nadal will almost certainly be the dominant player of the clay-court season. Doubt Zverev will do much until grass. Thiem can be a threat, but I'm not sure he's improved much since 2016.

Still think Dimitrov is far better now than he was in 2014?

Grigs looked awful in Miami. Its a shame Goffin could not defend his m1000 SFs from last year too. I'm not crying as Thiem should be getting byes this year at all the M1000s and better draws.

Despite some impressive hard court results on the surface (three finals), Nadal is only 7th in games won on hard courts at 57.9%. He'll be near the top and not sure he's better than last year. Thiem is almost definitely improved. I'll be impressed if Nadal holds it together physically through the French. We'll soon have a good feel for things by the end of Monte Carlo and Thiem will also try his hand at Barcelona again this year where he had a good run in 2014.