Why CarlitosGOAT level is unsustainable

[travlerajm]

His separation comes from explosiveness, both in his elite agility / court coverage and in his explosive rotational swing paths to generate power.

Those things peak at age 21. It’s all downhill from there. The body tissues get stiffer, less durable, slower to recover.

His lightweight racquet setup necessitates his explosive cuts, further amplifying his injury risk by transferring dangerous levels of repetitive shock to his wrist, forearm, and elbow.

And then there’s that over reliance on the jump serve to deliver a downward angle into the service box. Height-based serves age better than explosive shoulder motions. Ask Roddick, Edberg, Rafter how things went when the shoulder reached the late 20s? — not as well as it did for post-30 peakers Isner and Karlovic and Kandy.

Other elite players who won with foot speed as their primary separator — Michael Chang and Lleyton Hewitt come to mind — peaked early when their strength-to-weight ratio was peaking. They faded off in injury frustration in their late 20s, unable to sustain a high level once their footspeed based games deserted them.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Panache

 

[travlerajm]

Panache

Of course Mansour Bahrami was still going strong and chasing down tweeners at age 70.

 

[tennis_pro]

Alcaraz playing at 10% will still be making finals against these losers.

Also, I feel like a lot of people forget that you don't stop winning once you start declining. You're just not as good as you used to be. Is Djokovic as good now at 39 as he was at 24? Hell no. Didn't stop him from beating Sinner.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Of course Mansour Bahrami was still going strong and chasing down tweeners at age 70.

He's so goated

 

[travlerajm]

Alcaraz playing at 10% will still be making finals against these losers.

Also, I feel like a lot of people forget that you don't stop stop winning once you start declining. You're just not as good as you used to. Is Djokovic as good now at 39 as he was at 24? Hell no. Didn't stop him from beating Sinner.

Djokovic is a poor example.

In fact, a case can be made that he is the opposite of Carlitos.

Djoko’s separation came mainly from being the most refined and durable specimen of the last generation of players to wield high swingweight.

When tennis evolution took a wrong turn toward lighter racquets and wristy forehand, the level at the top got worse. It allowed the top guys from the previous generation to continue dominating — Djok, Rafa, Murray, Wawrinka. And even the second tier guys from the Djokodal gen could peak in the rankings in their 30s, with half of the Top 50 over age 30 at one point during the transition.

Now that the transition to the featherweight racquet generation is complete, sucky players with heavy clubs like Cerundolo ( sorry Francisco )— who would have been stuck in challengers if he were born 15 years earlier — can enjoy beating up on lightweights to be consistent Top 20 guys.

And the best players of the current gen — Sinner and Carlos — are still vulnerable to the last great heavyweight who is 15 years past his prime, in his Rocky VI stage of his career.

I don’t see much chance that Carlos will be winning slams in his late 30s like Rafa and Djoker. I could be wrong, but I suspect it’s more likely that he’s drinking cervezas in Ibiza with a pot belly 15 years from now.

 

[tennis_pro]

Djokovic is a poor example.

In fact, a case can be made that he is the opposite of Carlitos.

Take Federer, Nadal, Agassi, Connors etc. All making finals and/or winning Slams or going deep in the Slams at 35+ Sampras could still probably be making Slam semis or better in 2003-2006 if he had any motivation left.

Djoko’s separation came mainly from being the most refined and durable specimen of the last generation of players to wield high swingweight.

When tennis evolution took a wrong turn toward lighter racquets and wristy forehand, the level at the top got worse. It allowed the top guys from the previous generation to continue dominating — Djok, Rafa, Murray, Wawrinka. And even the second tier guys from the Djokodal gen could peak in the rankings in their 30s, with half of the Top 50 over age 30 at one point during the transition.

Now that the transition to the featherweight racquet generation is complete, sucky players with heavy clubs like Cerundolo ( sorry Francisco )— who would have been stuck in challengers if he were born 15 years earlier — can enjoy beating up on lightweights to be consistent Top 20 guys.

And the best players of the current gen — Sinner and Carlos — are still vulnerable to the last great heavyweight who is 15 years past his prime, in his Rocky VI stage of his career.

I don’t see much chance that Carlos will be winning slams in his late 30s like Rafa and Djoker. I could be wrong, but I suspect it’s more likely that he’s drinking cervezas in Ibiza with a pot belly 15 years from now.

We'll see, but it's not like Alcaraz will have to keep winning Slams at 36. He's got a huge headstart, it's really not that crazy to think he can average 1-2 Slams per year until he's 29/30 which would put him in the 16-20 range before he hits 30. Then he bags a couple more in the next 3-4 years.

I'm not gonna predict anything, there are way too many factors, but talking doom and gloom about a player who's 22 is a bit premature I'd think. There were way more voices about Nadal's health when he was even younger than Alcaraz and he kept winning Slams until he was 36. And Nadal had to do the majority of his winning against 10x stronger competition. Alcaraz is way too good to just fade away at 22/23 unless his injuries are really serious which I don't think they are.

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

Why CarlitosGOAT level is unsustainable​

Since Alcaraz is not a GOAT player--therefore he has no "GOAT level", he's as susceptible to the usual failings of form common to other players.

 

[Kralingen]

It is very possible indeed that he is the new Seles.

Instead of it being Gunter, though, JCF was the one who stabbed him in the back with the amateur racquet setup causing his wrist to break.

 

[cha cha]

Why 21?

 

[kangaroo1973]

It is very possible indeed that he is the new Seles.

Instead of it being Gunter, though, JCF was the one who stabbed him in the back with the amateur racquet setup causing his wrist to break.

What racquet does Alcaraz use?

 

[Cramerica]

I would tend to agree but that's what everyone said about Nadal at that age - that he wouldn't be able to sustain that level on his body. But he managed to pop. enough painkillers to not feel his left foot and had a pretty successful and lengthy career.

 

[Mark-Touch]

His separation comes from explosiveness, both in his elite agility / court coverage and in his explosive rotational swing paths to generate power.

Those things peak at age 21. It’s all downhill from there. The body tissues get stiffer, less durable, slower to recover.

His lightweight racquet setup necessitates his explosive cuts, further amplifying his injury risk by transferring dangerous levels of repetitive shock to his wrist, forearm, and elbow.

And then there’s that over reliance on the jump serve to deliver a downward angle into the service box. Height-based serves age better than explosive shoulder motions. Ask Roddick, Edberg, Rafter how things went when the shoulder reached the late 20s? — not as well as it did for post-30 peakers Isner and Karlovic and Kandy.

Other elite players who won with foot speed as their primary separator — Michael Chang and Lleyton Hewitt come to mind — peaked early when their strength-to-weight ratio was peaking. They faded off in injury frustration in their late 20s, unable to sustain a high level once their footspeed based games deserted them.

I could see this coming the first couple of times I watched Carlos play!
I new immediately it wasn't sustainable. When you run around the court like a madman as
your default you know you will be doomed in just a few years.

 

[Towny]

People said this about Nadal throughout his whole career, that his game is too physical, that he would be done by his mid/late 20s blah blah blah. Yet Nadal kept up that level for far longer than expected but also was able to adapt his game when he had started to decline physcially.

Alcaraz has enough in his arsenal that he will probably still be at the top of his game even if his peak explosiveness declines a bit

 

[Racquet_smash]

People said this about Nadal throughout his whole career, that his game is too physical, that he would be done by his mid/late 20s blah blah blah. Yet Nadal kept up that level for far longer than expected but also was able to adapt his game when he had started to decline physcially.

Alcaraz has enough in his arsenal that he will probably still be at the top of his game even if his peak explosiveness declines a bit

Just because Nadal surpassed expectations it doesn't mean the same will happen every time

 

[Tallawah Tennis]

Heh man, @travlerajm, interesting observations. Prefer to wait to see what happens, dude is only 22.

.......Alcaraz has enough in his arsenal that he will probably still be at the top of his game even if his peak explosiveness declines a bit

Yah man, this is a distinct possibility, if all else is well and there are no fitness / injury issues. It's been intriguing to note the adjustments made by Carlitos as he has navigated his career thus far and I'm looking forward to seeing what he comes up with to remain competitive.

 

[weakera]

That's what they used to say about LeBron, too

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050640624727052362

 

[Hitman]

It is very possible indeed that he is the new Seles.

Instead of it being Gunter, though, JCF was the one who stabbed him in the back with the amateur racquet setup causing his wrist to break.

Oh come on...

 

[Towny]

Just because Nadal surpassed expectations it doesn't mean the same will happen every time

Yeah absolutely, there's no guarantee either way. I just use Nadal as an example in that he is closer to Alcaraz than the other examples in the OP, in order to demonstrate that making predictions purely based off the physically of a players game is highly speculative

 

[travlerajm]

I would tend to agree but that's what everyone said about Nadal at that age - that he wouldn't be able to sustain that level on his body. But he managed to pop. enough painkillers to not feel his left foot and had a pretty successful and lengthy career.

Nadal played with 365sw, and with 3cm choke down, that equals 400+ effective sw.

He is the antithetical counter example to Carlitos’ junior racquet setup. Rafa could still sledge hammer his way to slams long after his legs had given out.

 

[travlerajm]

I could see this coming the first couple of times I watched Carlos play!
I new immediately it wasn't sustainable. When you run around the court like a madman as
your default you know you will be doomed in just a few years.

We old guys who used to run the scramble drill too know this all too well.

 

[travlerajm]

Heh man, @travlerajm, interesting observations. Prefer to wait to see what happens, dude is only 22.


Yah man, this is a distinct possibility, if all else is well and there are no fitness / injury issues. It's been intriguing to note the adjustments made by Carlitos as he has navigated his career thus far and I'm looking forward to seeing what he comes up with to remain competitive.

I think the recent adjustment to a lower jump height on serve might add a bit of longevity. But that’s only one of the issues.

 

[JMR]

Heh man, @travlerajm, interesting observations. Prefer to wait to see what happens, dude is only 22.

Alcaraz turns 23 tomorrow!

While I agree that there are many variables at work here, it's interesting to note that both Chang and Hewitt were basically washed up at age 26. This was not Borg/Wilander burn out, but rather plunging results. But the good thing for Alcaraz is that his speed is not his only weapon.

 

[gamelovergold]

Alcaraz turns 23 tomorrow!

While I agree that there are many variables at work here, it's interesting to note that both Chang and Hewitt were basically washed up at age 26. This was not Borg/Wilander burn out, but rather plunging results. But the good thing for Alcaraz is that his speed is not his only weapon.

Chang is curious case. Won a slam very early and never won another one

 

[travlerajm]

Chang is curious case. Won a slam very early and never won another one

IMO it was a mistake for Chang to ditch his trusty standard length POG OS at age 22, went he switched to 28” extended.

He lost his identify as a singles player after that. Yeah he got to two slam finals after that, but I think the top guys had less fear of his game at the business end of slams than when he was rock solid with the POG in his youthful days. That ‘89 RG run was a masterclass in out-mental-gaming the top players.

 

[gamelovergold]

IMO it was a mistake for Chang to ditch his trusty standard length POG OS at age 22, went he switched to 28” extended.

He lost his identify as a singles player after that. Yeah he got to two slam finals after that, but I think the top guys had less fear of his game at the business end of slams than when he was rock solid with the POG in his youthful days.

Maybe he was "one hit wonder" ?

 

[travlerajm]

Maybe he was "one hit wonder" ?

Well, that’s the way history played out. But could have been different imo.

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

It is very possible indeed that he is the new Seles.

Only in being ridiculously overrated.

People said this about Nadal throughout his whole career, that his game is too physical, that he would be done by his mid/late 20s blah blah blah. Yet Nadal kept up that level for far longer than expected but also was able to adapt his game when he had started to decline physcially.

Nadal was a unique case, which does not apply to Alcaraz at all. A more common result of a physical game is constant stress/injuries and at times, early breakdowns, as in Jim Courier's game (and no, i'm not referring to Courier's stated mental fatigue).

 

[aldeayeah]

Indeed Carlos currently needs his physical edge to be a #1 contender

But unlike other players, he's flexible/talented enough to retool his game to stay competitive as the legs start to lose their spark.

The serve game is most crucial, as OP correctly identified. The scrambling speed not so much, because he has a very proactive gameplan.

 

[helterskelter]

His separation comes from explosiveness, both in his elite agility / court coverage and in his explosive rotational swing paths to generate power.

Those things peak at age 21. It’s all downhill from there. The body tissues get stiffer, less durable, slower to recover.

His lightweight racquet setup necessitates his explosive cuts, further amplifying his injury risk by transferring dangerous levels of repetitive shock to his wrist, forearm, and elbow.

And then there’s that over reliance on the jump serve to deliver a downward angle into the service box. Height-based serves age better than explosive shoulder motions. Ask Roddick, Edberg, Rafter how things went when the shoulder reached the late 20s? — not as well as it did for post-30 peakers Isner and Karlovic and Kandy.

Other elite players who won with foot speed as their primary separator — Michael Chang and Lleyton Hewitt come to mind — peaked early when their strength-to-weight ratio was peaking. They faded off in injury frustration in their late 20s, unable to sustain a high level once their footspeed based games deserted them.

Meanwhile, Sinner - who relies mostly on very solid all-round technique, and is not that gifted athletically - is well placed to follow Djokovic in both blossoming relatively late and probably continuing to do well relatively late.

By the way, this was a timely post, considering Calf turned 23 yesterday. But I do agree with @aldeayeah that he has a good chance to retool his skills, as Nadal did. Nadal didn't quite match Federer or Djokovic for longevity, but he made it much closer than many expected when he was 23.

 

[Mark-Touch]

Only in being ridiculously overrated.

Huh?
A player who won 8 singles slams as a teenager was ridiculously overrated?
What planet do you live on?

 

[heavyD]

Djokovic is a poor example.

In fact, a case can be made that he is the opposite of Carlitos.

Djoko’s separation came mainly from being the most refined and durable specimen of the last generation of players to wield high swingweight.

When tennis evolution took a wrong turn toward lighter racquets and wristy forehand, the level at the top got worse. It allowed the top guys from the previous generation to continue dominating — Djok, Rafa, Murray, Wawrinka. And even the second tier guys from the Djokodal gen could peak in the rankings in their 30s, with half of the Top 50 over age 30 at one point during the transition.

Now that the transition to the featherweight racquet generation is complete, sucky players with heavy clubs like Cerundolo ( sorry Francisco )— who would have been stuck in challengers if he were born 15 years earlier — can enjoy beating up on lightweights to be consistent Top 20 guys.

And the best players of the current gen — Sinner and Carlos — are still vulnerable to the last great heavyweight who is 15 years past his prime, in his Rocky VI stage of his career.

I don’t see much chance that Carlos will be winning slams in his late 30s like Rafa and Djoker. I could be wrong, but I suspect it’s more likely that he’s drinking cervezas in Ibiza with a pot belly 15 years from now.

I don't know what's crazier. This post or the fact that two people liked it.

 

[travlerajm]

I don't know what's crazier. This post or the fact that two people liked it.

I’m pretty sure that post wouldn’t crack the Top 100 of crazy but true things I’ve posted here.

 

[Jonas78]

Raz has similarities to Rafa, who definetly declined post 2013.

Like Rafa, Raz has a non-serve based game built on explosiveness, stamina and speed, which i think are traits that starts to decline at 27/28y. Serve isnt bad, but they dont have a serve based game.

I think Raz game, like Rafa, is more sensitive to both injuries and decline.

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

Huh?
A player who won 8 singles slams as a teenager was ridiculously overrated?
What planet do you live on?

You seem to conveniently forget that Seles was hyped to ridiculous degrees, with some almost guaranteeing she would win the GOAT-defining Grand Slam...which was an absurd fantasy, since she-at the unquestioned peak of her game--was defeated like she was a junior by Graf in that unforgettable 1992 Wimbledon final. The Seles hype machine members had no explanation (such as Graf being absolutely superior to Seles at the event), thus their Grand Slam predictions were flushed right down the toilet. Talk Tennis Warehouse has members who suffer from similar delusions--not just with Seles, but with Alcaraz, were members like the in-hiding ALCARAZWON predicted he would win the 2026 Grand Slam, and was not alone in making that asinine prediction--just as some have made a similar prediction about Alcaraz in the past.

Anyone can be a fan of a player, but to invest such self-deceiving fantasy into a player reaching/winning the zenith of the sport is fanaticism defined.

 

[DSH]

I would tend to agree but that's what everyone said about Nadal at that age - that he wouldn't be able to sustain that level on his body. But he managed to pop. enough painkillers to not feel his left foot and had a pretty successful and lengthy career.

People said this about Nadal throughout his whole career, that his game is too physical, that he would be done by his mid/late 20s blah blah blah. Yet Nadal kept up that level for far longer than expected but also was able to adapt his game when he had started to decline physcially.

Alcaraz has enough in his arsenal that he will probably still be at the top of his game even if his peak explosiveness declines a bit

A bull and a calf are not comparable.
Hopefully Alcaraz's injury isn't too serious, as it would be an irreparable loss for men's tennis, which is already in a difficult situation.

 

[DSH]

Alcaraz turns 23 tomorrow!

While I agree that there are many variables at work here, it's interesting to note that both Chang and Hewitt were basically washed up at age 26. This was not Borg/Wilander burn out, but rather plunging results. But the good thing for Alcaraz is that his speed is not his only weapon.

Hewitt's last semifinal was at the 2005 US Open, when he was 24 years old.
Chang's last semifinal was at the US Open when he was 25 years old.
Neither of them were able to play at a high level again after those performances.

 

[DSH]

Meanwhile, Sinner - who relies mostly on very solid all-round technique, and is not that gifted athletically - is well placed to follow Djokovic in both blossoming relatively late and probably continuing to do well relatively late.

By the way, this was a timely post, considering Calf turned 23 yesterday. But I do agree with @aldeayeah that he has a good chance to retool his skills, as Nadal did. Nadal didn't quite match Federer or Djokovic for longevity, but he made it much closer than many expected when he was 23.

Did you know that Nadal has the longest span between his first and last Grand Slam title in the Open Era?
RG 2005 - RG 2022 = 17 years.
No one has been able to match the longevity of the Spaniard in this very important statistic.

 

[MotorCityCobra]

Only in being ridiculously overrated.

Why do you say that? Is it just a dislike for him? He’s achieved so much at a young age and his game definitely passes the eye test. When he’s at his peak it truly feels like you’re watching one of the greats, no need to bring up stats. That’s a special talent imo, not ridiculously overrated.

 

[duaneeo]

Alcaraz playing at 10% will still be making finals against these losers.

Since 2024, Alcaraz has failed to make big HC finals 14 times.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Too much panache

 

[NachoGPT]

Too much panache

Sinner fits Bret Hart more. Very efficient and great at what they do but bland personality

 

[vix]

I think it's funny people can draw such conclusions looking only at racket weight. It's not an exact science, I injured my arm when going from a 300g to a 315g frame, and saw many people go trough the same. Sometimes swing weight and balance actually helped more with power than just racket weight. And it's hard to imagine a guy like Alcaraz hasn't tried many different (and probably way heavier) racket setups.

 

[Ombelibable]

Of course Mansour Bahrami was still going strong and chasing down tweeners at age 70.

He is an Ombelibable player

 

[welcome2petrkordaland]

RE: OP’s point, I could definitely see this as a possibility, but it’s not like Carlos doesn’t possess more than solid “templates” technically speaking for nearly every shot in the book, such that he could adapt, adjust, etc. and develop a more efficient game when necessary—better, traditional vollies, more biting, lower slice, bigger slice serve (as opposed to his kicker) —even guys like Benjamin Becker, Phillip Kohlscreiber (who’s the same height basically) could crush it. Similarly, Carlos IE on clay could even develop a more consistent game when needed, so as to win more efficiently instead of having to go 4 or 5 sets at RG (kind of like Nadal).

If Nadal, who we never thought would be playing past 30 given his supremely physical style, can modify like he did, there’s no Carlos can’t… but yeah, maybe his equipment/setup needs to be part of this as he progresses.

 

[Zara]

Alcaraz turns 23 tomorrow!

While I agree that there are many variables at work here, it's interesting to note that both Chang and Hewitt were basically washed up at age 26. This was not Borg/Wilander burn out, but rather plunging results. But the good thing for Alcaraz is that his speed is not his only weapon.

Does height play any role in this, considering that both Hewitt and Chang were of average height?

 

[Mustard]

Alcaraz needs the 2025 US Open blueprint. He won that much more convincingly, without danger.

Obviously as you get older, you can't use your physicality as a weapon as easily anymore. Alcaraz is still only 23. It's usually in the 27-28 period that the slow decline of youth starts, and accelerates by around 37-38 to the extent that you know that there are things you can no longer do to your body and get away with as easily anymore.

 

[Mustard]

Does height play any role in this, considering that both Hewitt and Chang were of average height?

Injuries with Hewitt. He still had the odd good run, like 2009 Wimbledon, beating Del Potro and narrowly losing to Roddick in the quarter finals and beating his hip in frustration.

 

[Subway Tennis]

Injuries with Hewitt. He still had the odd good run, like 2009 Wimbledon, beating Del Potro and narrowly losing to Roddick in the quarter finals and beating his hip in frustration.

If Grassovic hadn't taken him out in 4th round, there is a good chance Hewitt could have made the semis in 2010 also.

 

[Dane_is_Finnish_OJ]

I could see this coming the first couple of times I watched Carlos play!
I new immediately it wasn't sustainable. When you run around the court like a madman as
your default you know you will be doomed in just a few years.

Nadal did fine.