Why did Federer slow down so much since 2008?

NoleIsBoat

NoleIsBoat

Hall of Fame
Federer slam wins 2004 - 2007 -> 11 / 16 -> 68%
Federer slam wins 2008 - 2015-> 5 / 32 -> 15%

Federer number 1 ranking 2004 - 2007 -> 204 weeks
Federer number 1 ranking 2008 - 2015 -> 65 weeks



Such a huge drop off in results.


Fed got old at 26? o_O or faced prime Djokovic/Nadal instead of Bagdhatis, Philippousis, Roddick, Gonzalez, Hewitt?
 
Competition and age.

Athletes hit their peak at 26 statistically speaking and decline from there, which for Federer was also around the general timeframe that Djoko wins his maiden Slam and Rafa dethrones him at Wimbledon.

He had that last hurrah of US08-AUS10 where he made every Final and won 4 of 6 Slams. Then he was really on the plane to Finland after that.
 
Probably a combination of him slowing down a little and a new stronger generation.

Also I think that 08 was mostly due to mono which made him weaker for the first half of that year. I think without mono he would have won like 2 slams that year.

In 09 he won 2 slams and made 4 finals so he likely wasn't any weaker than 04 to 07, 09 fed would have easily won 3 slams in the 04-07 field.

The real slowing down of federer happend in 2010-2016 when he only won 2 slams and often lost before the semifinal (still made some finals).

17 and 18 he then had some resurgence winning 3 out of 8 slams in that span and also having about his best stretch of his career against Nadal.
 
Didn't know that Federer was 26 all these years between 2007 and 2015.

smiley_emoticons_santagrin.gif
 
Got a bit older during 2008 - 2010 and faced a very strong rival whom he matched up badly against (Nadal).

Then from 2011 onwards he was 30+, younger ATGs were supposed to beat him after that point, so I give little credit to Novak Djokovic for his victories.
 
Jonesy said:
Not his fault Fed was ancient at 26 and Nole is still number 1 at 33 with many more slams to come.
Click to expand...

He's still No 1 but way past his best - the only reason he's still there is because he's faced the weakest young generation in history.

I also doubt he has many more slams to come, and if he does keep winning loads into his late 30s, it will again be due to that terrible young gen.

Agreed upon by all objective tennis observers.
 
Jonesy said:
Not his fault Fed was ancient at 26 and Nole is still number 1 at 33 with many more slams to come.
Click to expand...

Federer was #1 at 31, displacing two other ATGs 5/6 years younger than him, who were supposedly in their best years. Then Federer was # 1 at 36.5, an age which Djoke is still approximately 3 years away from. We will see which ranking he will have at that age, even with the ridiculously weak current competition.

smiley_emoticons_santagrin.gif
 
That's why Pete is the GOAT. He beat his biggest rival PEAK for PEAK so hard poor Andre took 3 years to recover. Later on he even planned that his last tournament is gonna be a Slam win and let the door open for others to break the record out of generosity, he could have easily got to 20 if he played until fedr age.

This mug fedr has been losing to Nadal on his favourite surfaces since Nadal was 17 (see Miami 2004, lmao 2004 best HC year for Federer), 2005 Miami and 2006 Dubai.
got powned while still at his peak in ao and rg 08
Chokes every big match and can't win a Slam unless it's one-dimensional pusher-bot Roddick he is facing or Ferrer of the HCs.
Imagine winning 1 Slam in 6 years and a half between rg10 and uso16 too.
Got lucky with novak being injured and out of shape during 2017-2018 after being dominated in Slams for 6 years now and nadal throwing him a bone in ao17, before laughing in his face by winning RG and USO with almost no set dropped like the true GOAT should do.
His true rivalry is with john millman these days too, IMAGINE.
 
InsideOut900 said:
That's why Pete is the GOAT. He beat his biggest rival PEAK for PEAK so hard poor Andre took 3 years to recover. Later on he even planned that his last tournament is gonna be a Slam win and let the door open for others to break the record out of generosity, he could have easily got to 20 if he played until fedr age.

This mug fedr has been losing to Nadal on his favourite surfaces since Nadal was 17 (see Miami 2004, lmao 2004 best HC year for Federer), 2005 Miami and 2006 Dubai.
got powned while still at his peak in ao and rg 08
Chokes every big match and can't win a Slam unless it's one-dimensional pusher-bot Roddick he is facing or Ferrer of the HCs.
Imagine winning 1 Slam in 6 years and a half between rg10 and uso16 too.
Got lucky with novak being injured and out of shape during 2017-2018 after being dominated in Slams for 6 years now and nadal throwing him a bone in ao17, before laughing in his face by winning RG and USO with almost no set dropped like the true GOAT should do.
His true rivalry is with john millman these days too, IMAGINE.
Click to expand...

Pete's biggest rival was from his own generation, so you oversee one major difference right there. Obviously, there are many more, but if you cannot get past the lowest hurdle .....

smiley_emoticons_santagrin.gif
 
Phoenix1983 said:
He's still No 1 but way past his best - the only reason he's still there is because he's faced the weakest young generation in history.

I also doubt he has many more slams to come, and if he does keep winning loads into his late 30s, it will again be due to that terrible young gen.

Agreed upon by all objective tennis observers.
Click to expand...
Why are you denying reality, who is the player who has been winning most big titles in the last 3 years?
 
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dominikk1985 said:
Probably a combination of him slowing down a little and a new stronger generation.

Also I think that 08 was mostly due to mono which made him weaker for the first half of that year. I think without mono he would have won like 2 slams that year.

In 09 he won 2 slams and made 4 finals so he likely wasn't any weaker than 04 to 07, 09 fed would have easily won 3 slams in the 04-07 field.

The real slowing down of federer happend in 2010-2016 when he only won 2 slams and often lost before the semifinal (still made some finals).

17 and 18 he then had some resurgence winning 3 out of 8 slams in that span and also having about his best stretch of his career against Nadal.
Click to expand...
2004-2007 Fed doesn't lose a slam final to Del Potro.
 
Tennis Analyst said:
I remember those times. Fed fans used to say let's see how Nadal will compete when he's 26 years OLD hahaha. Nadal will probably be retired by 25 lol.

Federer has the record of the youngest man ever to get old. I'll give him that.
Click to expand...
Ralph got slower after 25 and turned into a complete punching bag off dirt besides like 3 matches anyways. Not too far off.
 
InsideOut900 said:
That's why Pete is the GOAT. He beat his biggest rival PEAK for PEAK so hard poor Andre took 3 years to recover. Later on he even planned that his last tournament is gonna be a Slam win and let the door open for others to break the record out of generosity, he could have easily got to 20 if he played until fedr age.

This mug fedr has been losing to Nadal on his favourite surfaces since Nadal was 17 (see Miami 2004, lmao 2004 best HC year for Federer), 2005 Miami and 2006 Dubai.
got powned while still at his peak in ao and rg 08
Chokes every big match and can't win a Slam unless it's one-dimensional pusher-bot Roddick he is facing or Ferrer of the HCs.
Imagine winning 1 Slam in 6 years and a half between rg10 and uso16 too.
Got lucky with novak being injured and out of shape during 2017-2018 after being dominated in Slams for 6 years now and nadal throwing him a bone in ao17, before laughing in his face by winning RG and USO with almost no set dropped like the true GOAT should do.
His true rivalry is with john millman these days too, IMAGINE.
Click to expand...

People underestimate this, usually by dismissing Andre as uncommitted, a pigeon, lazy etc. but the fact he returned after 96 and had some of the best results of his career shows the exact opposite. In fact, Andre may have been ONE of THE mentality strongest ATGs in history - how many people come back from outside the top 140 with a meth addiction to being ranked World #1 and becoming the first man to win the Career Slam in decades?

Of course this is all overlooked because the powers that be don't want to give Andre this credit and acknowledge how incredible it was that Pete so thoroughly dominated such an extraordinary individual
 
Tennis_Hands said:
Federer was #1 at 31, displacing two other ATGs 5/6 years younger than him, who were supposedly in their best years. Then Federer was # 1 at 36.5, an age which Djoke is still approximately 3 years away from. We will see which ranking he will have at that age, even with the ridiculously weak current competition.

smiley_emoticons_santagrin.gif
Click to expand...
If feel sorry that your misery will last so long, that means if Fed, the weakest of the big 3, vultured a number 1 spot for one week at age 36 (and only because Nole wasn't spanking Fed at the time) when Nole gets to that age he will do a lot better.
 
Slams he either won the title or lost to Djokodal in the final/semi:

Until 2007 --> 15
Since 2008 --> 26
 
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His level dropped a bit after 2007. Also he faced strongest competition from younger generation. He had deal with Djokovic, Nadal, Potro, Tsonga, Berdych, Murray etc. Now compare this competition with Dimitrov and Raonic generation. Federer would have kept winning Slams at the same rate had he got Raonic instead of Nadal as main rival.
 
The last element was the only one within his control, so more fool him on that score.

I see the racquet issue, however, as a question of belonging to a different era, rather than arrogance.

But it certainly was a failure to adapt.

I hate to brag here but when it was revealed that Fed had mono in 2018, I stated immediately that this moment would be seen as the beginning of his decline.

And thus it came to pass, grasshopper.

Firstservingman said:
Did Fed slow down? Yes. Did his main rivals improve? Yes. Did Fed suffer from arrogance and a failure to adapt? Yes.
Click to expand...
 
D.Nalby12 said:
His level dropped a bit after 2007. Also he faced strongest competition from younger generation. He had deal with Djokovic, Nadal, Potro, Tsonga, Berdych, Murray etc. Now compare this competition with Dimitrov and Raonic generation. Federer would have kept winning Slams at the same rate had he got Raonic instead of Nadal as main rival.
Click to expand...
The flaw in your argument is that Nole has played Raonic a grand total of 11 times over 7 years compared to 50 and 56 times for Federer and Nadal respectively, both of whom he leads the h2h with.
 
Pete Prime said:
The flaw in your argument is that Nole has played Raonic a grand total of 11 times over 7 years compared to 50 and 56 times for Federer and Nadal respectively, both of whom he leads the h2h with.
Click to expand...

No flaw. This actually strengthens my point. Raonic wasnt even good enough to make it Djokovic let alone beating him. Everyone knows Djokovic/Nadal is toughest young competition you could have while Dimitrov/Raonic is the worst young generation we have seen.
 
D.Nalby12 said:
No flaw. This actually strengthens my point. Raonic wasnt even good enough to make it Djokovic let alone beating him. Everyone knows Djokovic/Nadal is toughest young competition you could have while Dimitrov/Raonic is the worst young generation we have seen.
Click to expand...
You actually inspired me to do some research. You know how people frequently cite Kiefer and Gonzalez as Federer's main competition, and how Fedfans bristle with indignation? Well, as it turns out Federer played Kiefer 15 times over 9 years and lead 12-3, and Gonzalez 13 times over 5 years, leading 12-1. So if playing someone 11 times qualifies them as your main rival then I guess the Djokodal fans who cite Kiefer and Gonzalez as Fed's rivals were right all along...

Edit: Unsurprisingly, Baghdatis gets an honorable mention as a Fed rival, having played him 8 times (1-7)
 
NoleIsBoat said:
Fed got old at 26? o_O or faced prime Djokovic/Nadal instead of Bagdhatis, Philippousis, Roddick, Gonzalez, Hewitt?
Click to expand...
Federer didn't get old aged 26. In fact, he was both in his physical and technical peak. Only problem is he faced Nadal in the Wimbledon 2008 final, not Philippoussis.

Because this forum is ruled by Federer fans, they will insult you if you assert the truth: that Federer was at his absolute best in the Wimbledon 2008 final. I understand them though. They need an excuse to justify such a painful loss to Nadal. What I don't understand is the need for insults. To insult another person for the mere act of expressing a different view is a synonym of fanatism. What's the point of a tennis forum if you can't interchange different views? Not everyone sees Federer as a God that needs to be "non-peak" to lose to Nadal or Djokovic. Some of us actualize realize those are desperate excuses from a fanbase.
 
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Obviously when you climb Everest and fall off the mountain top people really care about it and ask why it happened. Then you only climb McKinley the next go and people say you've been exposed. When you climb the little pile of leaves in the backyard and fall off that, people don't care so much. Then you climb up a little bunny hill your next go and people are falling over themselves with praise.
 
Lew II said:
Slams he either won the title or lost to Djokodal in the final/semi:

Until 2007 --> 15
Since 2008 --> 26
Click to expand...

Yes, Federer was great even way past his peak years, just like Nadal and Djokovic are. Three special athletes competing against poor new generations the last 10 years.

Had 3 new young ATGs of their own stature emerged since 2015, things would have been very different.

PS!
Until 2007 means 4 years as slam champ.
Since 2008 means 13 years as slam champ.

That's 16 slam opportunities as a slam champion until 2007, as opposed to 52 since 2008.
 
This is surely trolling.

Firstly, the man is super fit at close to 40. Just watch the guy's speed in Wimbly 2019. He was phenomenal and was going toe to toe with another world class athlete 6 years younger to him.

Second, he is human. He ages too.

He is once in a lifetime athlete. I am glad he still shows passion for the game.
 
D.Nalby12 said:
No flaw. This actually strengthens my point. Raonic wasnt even good enough to make it Djokovic let alone beating him. Everyone knows Djokovic/Nadal is toughest young competition you could have while Dimitrov/Raonic is the worst young generation we have seen.
Click to expand...
How lucky of "Djokodal" that they never had to play each other. Other than the most head-to-heads in the OE.
 
Sport said:
Federer didn't get old aged 26. In fact, he was both in his physical and technical peak. Only problem is he faced Nadal in the Wimbledon 2008 final, not Philippoussis.

Because this forum is ruleď by Federer fans, they will insult you if you assert the truth: that Federer was at his absolute best in the Wimbledon 2008 final. I understand them though. They need an excuse to justify such a painful loss to Nadal. What I don't understand is the need for insults. To insult another person for the mere act of expressing a different view is a synonym of fanatism. What's the point of a tennis forum if you can't interchange different views? Not everyone sees Federer as a God that needs to be "non-peak" to lose to Nadal or Djokovic. Some of us actualize realize those are desperate excuses from a fanbase.
Click to expand...
Yes. This forum is ruled by Fed fans. That's why there are permanently something like 3 or 4 Fed (and Fed fan) trashing threads on page 1, this thread is littered with weapons grade sh;thousery that's been parroted for 10 years now, and bandwagoners of all ages are blasting through mountains of cocaine at warp speed... And get outta here with that passive aggression; veiled insults via straw-manning all Fed fans into holding extreme views you can lampoon and making them out to be fools whilst crying foul, all while having the arrogance to assert your own the 'truth'. I imagine the actual truth of the matter is likely somewhere between the views you (and others) have faced off against each other here, and I would wager most of your opposition think similarly, but it's hard not to posit the directly opposite position in response to such simplistic reasoning. No one's going to respond reasonably to 'LOL PHILIPPOUSSIS' in drag, and suggesting people are desperate fools and then decrying insults is just asking to be called an assclown.
 
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What a trollish thread from a poster with such an "unbiased" username.Fed slowed down after the 2010 AO, but it had to happen at some point because that amazing consistency since 2004 was not meant to last forever.The loss at Wimbledon had to happen because expecting someone to win a slam 6 or 7 times in a row is ridiculous.Losing at the AO 2008 was nothing out of the ordinary because he never won that tournament more than 2 times in a row and he wasn't 100% either at that tournament.That loss against Delpo at the USO is unforgivable though.
 
TearTheRoofOff said:
Yes. This forum is ruled by Fed fans. That's why there are permanently something like 3 or 4 Fed (and Fed fan) trashing threads on page 1, this thread is littered with weapons grade sh;thousery that's been parroted for 10 years now, and bandwagoners of all ages are blasting through mountains of cocaine at warp speed... And get outta here with that passive aggression; veiled insults via straw-manning all Fed fans into holding extreme views you can lampoon and making them out to be fools whilst crying foul, all while having the arrogance to assert you own the 'truth'. I imagine the actual truth of the matter is likely somewhere between the views you (and others) have faced off against each other here, and I would wager most of your opposition think similarly, but it's hard not to posit the directly opposite position in response to such simplistic reasoning. No one's going to respond reasonably to 'LOL PHILIPPOUSSIS' in drag, and suggesting people are desperate fools and then decrying insults is just asking to be called an assclown.
Click to expand...
Luckily for Nadal, the French takes place before Wimbledon, otherwise he would have lost again on Centre Court and 2008 would have been part of the weak era too ;) The weak era would have been prolonged as long as it would have been neccessary and don't forget that Fed always plays at the same level, it's just that his rivals get better ;)
 
He didn't get old at 26, but he was certainly not what he was before. More tellingly, by the summer of 2009 Federer had broken every record worth breaking, and was basically padding his stats. There was no real reason at that point to believe that either Nadal or Djokovic was going to make a real run at him.

He took his foot off the gas, he had reached the top of the mountain. It's like Djokovic who won 4 slams in a row and then suddenly, immediately dropped into the abyss. Maintaining peak motivation when all your goals are achieved is tough. Federer was essentially cruising from that point on until 2013-16 when they really started to close in on him, and by that point he WAS too old to really go toe to toe with them at the highest level.
 
NoleIsBoat said:
Federer slam wins 2004 - 2007 -> 11 / 16 -> 68%
Federer slam wins 2008 - 2015-> 5 / 32 -> 15%

Federer number 1 ranking 2004 - 2007 -> 204 weeks
Federer number 1 ranking 2008 - 2015 -> 65 weeks



Such a huge drop off in results.


Fed got old at 26? o_O or faced prime Djokovic/Nadal instead of Bagdhatis, Philippousis, Roddick, Gonzalez, Hewitt?
Click to expand...
He faced a prime Robredo
 
thrust said:
You cannot be serious- LOL!
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You didn't notice how Federer didn't even go 100% against them? He saw great potential in Nadal and Djokovic so he chose them to be his rivals.
 
ibbi said:
He didn't get old at 26, but he was certainly not what he was before. More tellingly, by the summer of 2009 Federer had broken every record worth breaking, and was basically padding his stats. There was no real reason at that point to believe that either Nadal or Djokovic was going to make a real run at him.

He took his foot off the gas, he had reached the top of the mountain. It's like Djokovic who won 4 slams in a row and then suddenly, immediately dropped into the abyss. Maintaining peak motivation when all your goals are achieved is tough. Federer was essentially cruising from that point on until 2013-16 when they really started to close in on him, and by that point he WAS too old to really go toe to toe with them at the highest level.
Click to expand...
Too much common sense for TTW (y) :D
 
Lew II said:
Slams he either won the title or lost to Djokodal in the final/semi:

Until 2007 --> 15
Since 2008 --> 26
Click to expand...

in how many slams until 2007 he faced Djokodal vs how many slams he competed?
in how many slams since 2008 he faced Djokodal vs how many slams he competed?
 
Tennis Analyst said:
I remember those times. Fed fans used to say let's see how Nadal will compete when he's 26 years OLD hahaha. Nadal will probably be retired by 25 lol.

Federer has the record of the youngest man ever to get old. I'll give him that.
Click to expand...

Nadal also had a period like that from 14 to 16 when he only won one slam. He looked done at the time and it was not clear that he could come back.
 
NoleIsBoat said:
Federer slam wins 2004 - 2007 -> 11 / 16 -> 68%
Federer slam wins 2008 - 2015-> 5 / 32 -> 15%

Federer number 1 ranking 2004 - 2007 -> 204 weeks
Federer number 1 ranking 2008 - 2015 -> 65 weeks



Such a huge drop off in results.


Fed got old at 26? o_O or faced prime Djokovic/Nadal instead of Bagdhatis, Philippousis, Roddick, Gonzalez, Hewitt?
Click to expand...

now please tell us which ATGs 4-8 years younger did Djokodal face?

let me guess:
Krajinovic
Djere
Albot
Goffin
Dimitrov
Sonego
Gerasimov

did I miss someone?
 
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