Why do people think Federer will win another Major?

[jm1980]

There's this thread asking people to predict the next slam winners and there're still people picking Federer to win majors. Really?

In the last 9 slams he never came close to winning any of them:

2010 French Open: QF, lost to Soderling (6-3 3-6 5-7 4-6)
2010 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Berdych (4-6 6-3 1-6 4-6)
2010 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-5 1-6 7-5 2-6 5-7)
2011 Australian Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (6-7 5-7 4-6)
2011 French Open: F, lost to Nadal (5-7 6-7 7-5 1-6)
2011 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Tsonga (6-3 7-6 4-6 4-6 4-6)
2011 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-6 6-4 3-6 2-6 5-7)
2012 Australian Open: SF, lost to Nadal (7-6 2-6 6-7 4-6)
2012 French Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (4-6 5-7 3-6)

Realistically, he'll never win the French as long as Nadal plays. With Djokovic at #1 and Nadal at #2, he can't even hope Djoker takes out Nadal. Not going to happen. People say he'll win Wimby, but failed to reach the semis in the last two. And with Djokovic 2.0 and an improved Murray, I don't see him winning the AO or USO.

The man is getting old, that's a fact. And last year he lost twice in majors after winning the first two sets (Wimbledon and USO), something that's never happened before.
How on Earth is going to win another major?


EDIT: And win another Major he did. The man is just that good, wow. I have to tip my hat to Federer.

 

[batz]

There's this thread asking people to predict the next slam winners and there're still people picking Federer to win majors. Really?

In the last 8 slams he's reached 1 Final, 4 SF, 3 QF. Not even close to winning any of them:

2010 French Open: QF, lost to Soderling (6-3 3-6 5-7 4-6)
2010 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Berdych (4-6 6-3 1-6 4-6)
2010 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-5 1-6 7-5 2-6 5-7)
2011 Australian Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (6-7 5-7 4-6)
2011 French Open: F, lost to Nadal (5-7 6-7 7-5 1-6)
2011 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Tsonga (6-3 7-6 4-6 4-6 4-6)
2011 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-6 6-4 3-6 2-6 5-7)
2012 Australian Open: SF, lost to Nadal (7-6 2-6 6-7 4-6)

Realistically, he'll never win the French as long as Nadal plays. With Djokovic at #1 and Nadal at #2, he can't even hope Djoker takes out Nadal. Not going to happen. People say he'll win Wimby, but failed to reach the semis in the last two. And with Djokovic 2.0 and an improved Murray, I don't see him winning the AO or USO.

The man is getting old, that's a fact. And last year he lost twice in majors after winning the first two sets (Wimbledon and USO), something that's never happened before.
How on Earth is going to win another major?

He 'only' needs to get hot for 2 matches; that doesn't seem like a zero probability event to me just yet.

He can win another 1, maybe more.

 

[Hood_Man]

His last 8 slam results are really good. They don't compare to his form from 2004-2007 (or even his consistency in 08 and 09), but then nobody else's form ever has.

He was one point away from 2 finals last year as well.

He's certainly declined but he's still so consistent it would be mad to write him off.

Maybe when he's losing in the 2nd round or thereabouts on a regular basis.

 

[SStrikerR]

There's this thread asking people to predict the next slam winners and there're still people picking Federer to win majors. Really?

In the last 8 slams he's reached 1 Final, 4 SF, 3 QF. Not even close to winning any of them:

2010 French Open: QF, lost to Soderling (6-3 3-6 5-7 4-6)
2010 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Berdych (4-6 6-3 1-6 4-6)
2010 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-5 1-6 7-5 2-6 5-7)
2011 Australian Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (6-7 5-7 4-6)
2011 French Open: F, lost to Nadal (5-7 6-7 7-5 1-6)
2011 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Tsonga (6-3 7-6 4-6 4-6 4-6)
2011 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-6 6-4 3-6 2-6 5-7)
2012 Australian Open: SF, lost to Nadal (7-6 2-6 6-7 4-6)

Realistically, he'll never win the French as long as Nadal plays. With Djokovic at #1 and Nadal at #2, he can't even hope Djoker takes out Nadal. Not going to happen. People say he'll win Wimby, but failed to reach the semis in the last two. And with Djokovic 2.0 and an improved Murray, I don't see him winning the AO or USO.

The man is getting old, that's a fact. And last year he lost twice in majors after winning the first two sets (Wimbledon and USO), something that's never happened before.
How on Earth is going to win another major?

Sampras was old, and going out early in a ton of tournaments before he won his last major. All it takes is a hot streak at the right time to win. His results, by the way, are really good. And he could've made the US open final the past 2 years. He didn't but still. You don't know what you're talking about.

 

[veroniquem]

As long as one makes semis or finals, they can win. Currently, all it would take for Fed to win an extra slam is for Nadal and Djoko to be in poor shape at the same time. Far from impossible that it would happen once in the near future.

 

[skiracer55]

It doesn't even take that...

As long as one makes semis or finals, they can win. Currently, all it would take for Fed to win an extra slam is for Nadal and Djoko to be in poor shape at the same time. Far from impossible that it would happen once in the near future.

...Fed's been on a rising curve ever since the 2012 AO. No reason he can't beat Nadal or Djoko, he just beat Nadal at Indian Wells...

 

[joeri888]

As long as one makes semis or finals, they can win. Currently, all it would take for Fed to win an extra slam is for Nadal and Djoko to be in poor shape at the same time. Far from impossible that it would happen once in the near future.

This. Plus being able to win big tournaments like Indian Wells and the World Tour Finals certainly helps. He was two sets away from winning the French Open last year. Or actually, he was one set away. Had John Isner won his opening round, Roger would be defending his title in a month or two.

 

[jm1980]

You guys are hilarious.

Keep posting, I am going to bump this thread when Fed retires after his 20th lackluster Major in a row.

 

[kendall22]

easy. Nadal's knees get shot, even for a short few weeks, and Djoker becomes a head case in one match.

 

[fed_rulz]

There's this thread asking people to predict the next slam winners and there're still people picking Federer to win majors. Really?

In the last 8 slams he's reached 1 Final, 4 SF, 3 QF. Not even close to winning any of them:

2010 French Open: QF, lost to Soderling (6-3 3-6 5-7 4-6)
2010 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Berdych (4-6 6-3 1-6 4-6)
2010 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-5 1-6 7-5 2-6 5-7)
2011 Australian Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (6-7 5-7 4-6)
2011 French Open: F, lost to Nadal (5-7 6-7 7-5 1-6)
2011 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Tsonga (6-3 7-6 4-6 4-6 4-6)
2011 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-6 6-4 3-6 2-6 5-7)
2012 Australian Open: SF, lost to Nadal (7-6 2-6 6-7 4-6)

Realistically, he'll never win the French as long as Nadal plays. With Djokovic at #1 and Nadal at #2, he can't even hope Djoker takes out Nadal. Not going to happen. People say he'll win Wimby, but failed to reach the semis in the last two. And with Djokovic 2.0 and an improved Murray, I don't see him winning the AO or USO.

The man is getting old, that's a fact. And last year he lost twice in majors after winning the first two sets (Wimbledon and USO), something that's never happened before.
How on Earth is going to win another major?

Don't know what that means -- not sure how much "closer" you can get than reaching the final to win a grand slam.

 

[Juan Ma Del Pony]

Because ******** is still a threat at the relatively advanced age of 30. I honestly can't see anyone else besides ******** taking out Nadal or Djokovic at a Slam this year. These two have a higher risk of being taken out by their own messed-up knees or messed-up shoulder, respectively, than of losing to someone NOT named ******** at a Slam.

As long as ******** stays ranked in the Top 4 and keeps making Slam SF's/F's, he's a threat at every single Slam. It's up to Nadal and Djoker now to keep him from winning those Slams. Nadal's health looks iffy, and Fed is a tough match-up for Djoker. That's why Fed fans are still hopeful and Fed non-fans are still wary...

 

[jm1980]

And why is everyone acting like Nadal and Djoker are the only ones who present a threat to Federer?

How about the other players who, you know, also play slams? How about Tsonga, JMDP, Berdych and Soderling, who have all beaten Fed. in slams?

I'd say Murray has a much better chance of winning a slam than Fed.

 

[veroniquem]

...Fed's been on a rising curve ever since the 2012 AO. No reason he can't beat Nadal or Djoko, he just beat Nadal at Indian Wells...

I can't see him beating BOTH of them in a best of 5 sorry, 1 would be possible, yes, why not.

 

[ledwix]

You guys are hilarious.

Keep posting, I am going to bump this thread when Fed retires after his 20th lackluster Major in a row.

8 majors in a row without winning one does NOT make the chances of Federer winning a major 0%. Anyone with a rational mind knows this. Your ideas would make more sense if Federer kept losing in 2nd or 3rd rounds instead of semis after being up match point.

 

[jm1980]

...Fed's been on a rising curve ever since the 2012 AO. No reason he can't beat Nadal or Djoko, he just beat Nadal at Indian Wells...

But he also lost to a guy who got bageled by Juan Monaco right afterwards.

 

[jm1980]

8 majors in a row without winning one does NOT make the chances of Federer winning a major 0%. Anyone with a rational mind knows this. Your ideas would make more sense if Federer kept losing in 2nd or 3rd rounds instead of semis after being up match point.

I didn't say the chances were 0%, but they are very low.

Way too low for any rational mind to pick him to win 2 out of the next 3 slams:

FO: Djokovic d. Nadal
W: Federer d. Murray
Olympics: Federer d. Djokovic
US Open: Federer d. Nadal

 

[veroniquem]

And why is everyone acting like Nadal and Djoker are the only ones who present a threat to Federer?

How about the other players who, you know, also play slams? How about Tsonga, JMDP, Berdych and Soderling, who have all beaten Fed. in slams?

I'd say Murray has a much better chance of winning a slam than Fed.

Of course Murray has his chances but imo the most difficult for slams is to win the first one. So, currently, I would still put Fed's chances a tiny bit above Murray's for that reason alone. Of course, at his age, it's clear Fed's days are counted and the older he gets, the more of an upward challenge it's gonna be to fend off an early exit or a counterperf in a slam. Other than the Sod and Delpo loss though, he's been pretty steady at all slams but Wimbledon so far. W is the slam where he's been the most vulnerable recently, which is kind of surprising given it's also the slam where he's had his best results careerwise.
ETA: I agree that 2 out of the next 3 really seems over-optimistic. I'm only talking about the possibility of 1 extra slam title before he retires.

 

[kishnabe]

Why do people think Djokovic will never win another major during 2010?

Look what happened!

Federer is only outclassed in the slams by Murray, Djokovic, and Nadal the last two years.

He is still doing well.....there has to be a chance when he wins a major. One guy could upset Nadal, Djokovic loses early. Murray chokes in the final....why not?

2009 RG, 2009 WB, 2010 AO are later examples of when Nadal and Djokovic failed to get to Federer.

I'll bump this thread when Federer wins a slam......but by then you would not man up to your failed thoughts.

 

[jm1980]

Why do people think Djokovic will never win another major during 2010?

Look what happened!

Comparing someone who hadn't reached his full potential thanks to a gluten allergy to an over-the-hill 30+ player.

Seems legit.

FO: Federer d. Nadal
W: Federer d. Murray
Olympics: Federer d. Nadal
US Open: Federer d. Nadal

 

[tacou]

lemme giv u 16 reasonz

 

[kishnabe]

Comparing someone who hadn't reached his full potential thanks to a gluten allergy to an over-the-hill 30+ player.

Seems legit.

I know I was being a huge *******.Still Federer will win another major....I'll send that smiley face right back at ya after the US Open.

 

[woodrow1029]

This smiley is starting to become your calling card. I haven't seen you use it in a thread where you're not the one people are laughing at yet though.

 

[jmverdugo]

I believe he still can win another GS because:

"In the last 8 slams he's reached 1 Final, 4 SF, 3 QF.

2010 French Open: QF, lost to Soderling (6-3 3-6 5-7 4-6)
2010 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Berdych (4-6 6-3 1-6 4-6)
2010 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-5 1-6 7-5 2-6 5-7)
2011 Australian Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (6-7 5-7 4-6)
2011 French Open: F, lost to Nadal (5-7 6-7 7-5 1-6)
2011 Wimbledon: QF, lost to Tsonga (6-3 7-6 4-6 4-6 4-6)
2011 US Open: SF, lost to Djokovic (7-6 6-4 3-6 2-6 5-7)
2012 Australian Open: SF, lost to Nadal (7-6 2-6 6-7 4-6)"

 

[jm1980]

Who else besides Djokovic and Nadal can beat Federer consistently (and I'm not talking about once in a lifetime performance)?

Murray is up 8-7 against Federer all-time.

 

[thejoe]

The truth hurts, doesn't it?

The only way Federer wins another slam is with divine intervention, like everyone in the Top 10 gets injured.

You crazy soothsayer, you...

You're the sort of berk that makes outlandish claims and then hides behind a rock if/when you're proven wrong. Sure, Federer's chances of winning a slam are much slimmer than they used to be, but that doesn't mean it's out of the question. The guy's #3 in the world and has been the form player of the past 6 months. He's ranked #3 because he's currently not as good as Rafa or Nole, but he's proven that he can still beat both of them. He's not the favourite anymore, but it's not implausible that he picks up another major. It's certainly more likely than you getting that sense transplant that you so dearly need.

 

[FlashFlare11]

Murray is up 8-7 against Fed.

Yeah, and what's Murray's record vs Federer in Grand Slam matches?

 

[woodrow1029]

Murray is up 8-7 against Federer all-time.

And how many of those 8 are in Grand Slams, or any best of 5 set match? I don't know if Federer will ever win another Grand Slam. But, how many people counted Sampras out for ever winning another Grand Slam? A lot, then he won the US Open. Never count out Federer. Just like if Nadal were to all of a sudden go a couple years without winning one, do you think he should be counted out too?

 

[jm1980]

Yeah, and what's Murray's record vs Federer in Grand Slam matches?

And how many of those 8 are in Grand Slams, or any best of 5 set match?

They've only played 2 matches: small sample size.

Djokovic was 0-5 vs. Nadal in slams. We all know how that turned out.

But, how many people counted Sampras out for ever winning another Grand Slam? A lot, then he won the US Open.

Luck of the draw. That, and he faced his pigeon Agassi in the Final.

I don't know if Federer will ever win another Grand Slam. Never count out Federer.

I am not counting him out, but he'll need a miracle to win one.

Just like if Nadal were to all of a sudden go a couple years without winning one, do you think he should be counted out too?

I would say his chances would be very, very slim if:

- He was over the hill,
- He had to face a dominant No. 1 like Djokovic today
- He had to face a player who's owned him for ages like Nadal
- There were up and comers and someone like Murray

 

[Carsomyr]

Jimmy Connors went more than three years between his major win in 1978 at the U.S. Open and his Wimbledon win in 1982 without bagging a title. He was consistently making semifinals in the meantime.

 

[OriginalHockeytowner]

Keep posting, I am going to bump this thread when Fed retires after his 20th lackluster Major in a row.

Is there really anything lackluster about making the finals or the semis of a major, especially for a Federer "past his prime?" Every player in the top 100 would kill to have a shot at the semis of a major past their prime.

If Fed was bowing out in the first 3-4 rounds at slams, for a few years in a row, that's a completely different story.

This is the same player who only made one final (and won) in his first 18 main draw GS appearances. 2011 was the first year Fed didn't win a GS title in eight years. Does that mean it's time to call it a career, because you're no longer the most dominant player in the sport? Forget it. The talent of the top 4 is so high, and the margin for error is so absolutely small, but I think there is still a lot left in Federer. His best is not yet to come, we've seen it, but I think he has as good a shot as anyone at another GS title.

 

[veritech]

in other words, the only 2 people that are able win slams are djokovic and nadal. no one else. so OP, who do you think is the 3rd and 4th favorite for the slams?

 

[jm1980]

in other words, the only 2 people that are able win slams are djokovic and nadal. no one else.

They won the last 8 slams, didn't they?

so OP, who do you think is the 3rd and 4th favorite for the slams?

3rd favorite is Murray, and in a distant 4th, Fed. What I think Fed's chances of winning a slam are:

2012 RG: 0.1%
2012 W: 5%
2012 USO: 9%

2013 AO: 5%
2013 RG: 0.01%
2013 W: 2%
2013 USO: 4%

 

[Towser83]

Murray is up 8-7 against Federer all-time.

yes and 0-2 in slams, which is what we're talking about.

and 7-8 isn't even much of a difference overall.

if you're seriously saying federer can't beat a top 10 player in a slam, you're talking rubbish

 

[jackson vile]

Who else besides Djokovic and Nadal can beat Federer consistently (and I'm not talking about a once in a lifetime performance)?

And that is the killer point right there.

 

[agentaviles]

The truth hurts, doesn't it?

The only way Federer wins another slam is with divine intervention, like everyone in the Top 10 gets injured.

Everyone else in the Top 10? Really? C'mon man, even you have to admit that you're starting to sound a bit stupid. Federer has been in fantastic form since last year's US Open, and the guy has already won 3 titles this year (one of them being Indian Wells). To say that he has an unrealistic chance to win at least one more major is ridiculous. I agree that his chances aren't great at Roland Garros, but I could definitely see him winning Wimbledon or the US Open this year if he keeps this form up.

 

[RogerRacket111]

There's this thread asking people to predict the next slam winners and there're still people picking Federer to win majors. Really?

In the last 8 slams he's reached 1 Final, 4 SF, 3 QF. Not even close to winning any of them:


How on Earth is going to win another major?

Definition of Not Even Close would be Andy Murray who hasn't won a single set in any of of his Grand Slam finals. Roger on the other hand as you show has been been playing mostly 4 and 5 setters.

 

[cknobman]

Because he will.

Why do people think Nadal will win another Major??? I mean for christ sakes the guy is always hurt and has lost 3 freakin slam finals in a row to the same guy!

 

[jm1980]

Because he will.

Why do people think Nadal will win another Major??? I mean for christ sakes the guy is always hurt and has lost 3 freakin slam finals in a row to the same guy!

Quoted for posterity. I'll dig this up to laugh at you when he doesn't.

I think it's highly doubtful Nadal will win another major outside of RG. Even in RG Djoker has a slightly better chance than Nadal.

But then again, Nadal is not 30 years old yet.

Definition of Not Even Close would be Andy Murray who hasn't won a single set in any of of his Grand Slam finals. Roger on the other hand as you show has been been playing mostly 4 and 5 setters.

Murray's last 2 Wimbledons: 2 SF (vs. 2 QFs for Fed.)
Murray's last 2 AO's: 1 F and 1 SF (vs. 2 SFs for Fed.)

He's been closer than Fed in these two slams.

 

[Towser83]

Quoted for posterity. I'll dig this up to laugh at you when he doesn't.

I think it's highly doubtful Nadal will win another major outside of RG. Even in RG Djoker has a slightly better chance than Nadal.

But then again, Nadal is not 30 years old yet.



Murray's last 2 Wimbledons: 2 SF (vs. 2 QFs for Fed.)
Murray's last 2 AO's: 1 F and 1 SF (vs. 2 SFs for Fed.)

He's been closer than Fed in these two slams.

2 differing sets of logic. Murray has been closer because he's gone further the last couple of years. Well Federer was in the RG final last year and Djokovic never has been (Federer with 5 finals in total)

I also think Djokovic has a much better chance, but then going further the last year means nothing.

 

[rommil]

Roger winning another major? LOL @ ****s.

 

[woodrow1029]

This thread is getting deep.

 

[Tammo]

Really it is beacuse they are afraid that Nadal will get 16 and pass Federer

Now time for Clarkyto make another Nadal bashing post about why he can't get 16 slams.

 

[jm1980]

Oh, and anyone with four rental properties would have half a brain to know that a 5.0 wouldn't budge McEnroe.

Anyone with minimal reading comprehension skills would see that I never said a 5.0 would have a chance of beating McEnroe.
I merely contested the absurd posts on that thread, like these:

He could beat 2 6.0's... 2 on one and still no chance.

JMac could still beat many younger "open" level players !

A more interesting question is whether a 25 year old Nadal could take a set off a 30 year old Mac if they used wood rackets.....I doubt it.

 

[woodrow1029]

Oh, and anyone with four rental properties would have half a brain to know that a 5.0 wouldn't budge McEnroe.

Lol. This ^^^

 

[jm1980]

But let's get back on topic. Folks here give too much credit to Fed.

How many slams will Roger Federer win in 2011?

125 people out of 158 thought Federer would win at least one slam in 2011.



But then reality came crashing down

 

[shazbot]

trolling is so easy on this site...

When a **** like jm1980 can do it, you know it's sad

 

[jm1980]

trolling is so easy on this site...

When a **** like jm1980 can do it, you know it's sad

Someone whose opinion you don't agree with is a "****" and are "trolling"?

Why don't you post an intelligent argument instead, explaining why you think Federer will win another Major?

 

[FearOfTheDark]

Maybe because he currently has the best form under Djokovic? Compared to the rest on tour. Also there is an insane gap between top 3 (or 4 if we include Muzza...). The rest of the ATP players are a big step behind.

 

[DjokovicForTheWin]

I don't think people think per se that Fed will win another slam. They just want him to win and so the lines between feeling and thinking can blur. But by the same token, one can just as easily ask why people think Nadal will win another Major? Same thing. The only difference is Nadal is at peak why Fed is post-prime. But that is negated by the fact that Djoker owns Nadal's asss.

 

[jm1980]

Maybe because he currently has the best form under Djokovic? Compared to the rest on tour. Also there is an insane gap between top 3 (or 4 if we include Muzza...). The rest of the ATP players are a big step behind.

Right. By your own admission, he's not as good as Djokovic right now. Then there's Nadal, who owns him 8-2 in Slams. When was the last time Fed beat Nadal in a slam? 2007 Wimbledon. That's right. It's been FIVE YEARS. Finally, we have an improved Murray who happens to also have a winning record against Fed. So these are three guys he, more likely than not, will lose to in a slam.

And there's the rest of the tour, who also can beat him. And he's not getting any younger. The only logical conclusion that follows from all this is that his chances are very, very slim.
It might be rash to completely write him off, but it's even more absurd to think he'll win 2 out of the next 3 slams or all of them, like some people think:

FO: Djokovic d. Nadal
W: Federer d. Murray
Olympics: Federer d. Djokovic
US Open: Federer d. Nadal

Roland Garros: Nadal def. Federer (I think Federer will beat Novak in the semis again)
Wimbledon: Federer def. Djokovic
US Open: Federer def. Nadal

FO: Federer d. Nadal
W: Federer d. Murray
Olympics: Federer d. Nadal
US Open: Federer d. Nadal