Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
For two main reasons.
The big one, Thiem leads the H2H 2-1, all three of those matches being in the late stages of the tournament. Novak was able to grab a win against pre-prime Thiem in 2016 but everyone knows Thiem didn’t really hit his stride till the next year. And there he handed Djokovic a bagel. In 2019, when both were in their primes, Thiem was able to win in five sets, ending the peak-to-peak debate once and for all.
The next big point, Djokovic vultured 2016 RG in Nadal’s injury absence while Thiem had to face peak Nadal in three straight French Open matches. All three times he generally did better against Nadal than Djokovic did when he ended up facing peak Nadal himself in 2020 (and even that was in favorable fall conditions for Djokovic). Sure, Novak faced Nadal a few times from 2006-2015, but that was before Nadal hit his 2017-2020 peak (only 3 sets dropped in total and at peak 30’s age) so those results really don’t tell us an awful lot. The clay field was probably the stiffest it’s ever been, but now it seems to have declined a little with Nadal falling off a bit (due to injuries, as outlined here by esteemed viewer of the sport for >50 years) and Thiem in a temporary slump partially induced by injuries, allowing Novak to steal another one.
In the end, it’s frankly not all that close. Novak might be better in smaller clay court tournaments but Thiem has proven his worth against him in the big one. And it’s not a flattering situation at all for the peak player against the fresh poking youngster.
The big one, Thiem leads the H2H 2-1, all three of those matches being in the late stages of the tournament. Novak was able to grab a win against pre-prime Thiem in 2016 but everyone knows Thiem didn’t really hit his stride till the next year. And there he handed Djokovic a bagel. In 2019, when both were in their primes, Thiem was able to win in five sets, ending the peak-to-peak debate once and for all.
The next big point, Djokovic vultured 2016 RG in Nadal’s injury absence while Thiem had to face peak Nadal in three straight French Open matches. All three times he generally did better against Nadal than Djokovic did when he ended up facing peak Nadal himself in 2020 (and even that was in favorable fall conditions for Djokovic). Sure, Novak faced Nadal a few times from 2006-2015, but that was before Nadal hit his 2017-2020 peak (only 3 sets dropped in total and at peak 30’s age) so those results really don’t tell us an awful lot. The clay field was probably the stiffest it’s ever been, but now it seems to have declined a little with Nadal falling off a bit (due to injuries, as outlined here by esteemed viewer of the sport for >50 years) and Thiem in a temporary slump partially induced by injuries, allowing Novak to steal another one.
In the end, it’s frankly not all that close. Novak might be better in smaller clay court tournaments but Thiem has proven his worth against him in the big one. And it’s not a flattering situation at all for the peak player against the fresh poking youngster.