Why Fed will lose

Morj

Semi-Pro
This is to all Fed fans: Don't get your hopes up.

I'm not being mean-spirited or anything, I'm just saying that based on the way Federer has been talking, he is not (at the moment) prepared to give everything he's got to take out Nadal.

I strongly believe that Federer still has it in him to get one last big win over Nadal, simply because he has been making a lot of adjustments. He improved his backhand, and is now working on net play specifically to close points faster. If he has a strategy against Nadal then he will pull it out when it matters most and give it all he's got, but I don't think that he's ready to do that just yet.

He has repeatedly stated that he is just happy to be playing at a solid level again and is currently satisfied with where he's at. I get the feeling that he's using this semi final as a stepping stone for future success. Maybe he will use this match as an experiment, to try out a few different things, but he wont want Nadal to adapt for their next match so I don't think Fed will fight as hard as possible.

Of course, if Fed proves me wrong, that's great too but I don't think he's going to leave his heart out on the court is all I'm saying.
 

robert.s

Professional
Every match has it's own history. Federer beat Nadal 10 times, it's not like he doesn't know how to win against him.
 

atac

Rookie
If Nadal plays like he did against Dimitrov, I can't imagine Fed losing. If Nadal plays like he did against Monfils... well, you know the rest.
 

JustBob

Hall of Fame
Have you seen Nadal play? He's downright mediocre at a point in the tournament when he's usually on top of his game. He woudn't beat anyone in the top 10 playing like that, let alone Federer. Especially the way Fed has been playing.
 

rofaol nodol

New User
You're telling Fed fans not to get our heads up? What the heck do you think Roger has being doing to us over all these years?
 

msc886

Professional
He's got the game.

It's his mentality that will cause him to lose. He was very passive at the latter stages of the Murray match and that won't cut it against Nadal.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
He has not beaten Nadal in 7 years. I really do not know what hope are you talking about. He is the clear underdog and he knows it too.

OTOH Fed is due a big win over Nadal eventually. Law of averages
 
M

monfed

Guest
Yea I saw that but would you prefer to hear Fed say "I'm the favourite and it's on my racquet" which is partly true against Nadal because he's the aggressor afterall or would you rather see him being realistic about his chances against Nadal? Because facts indicate that Fed has already improved leaps and bounds from his atrocious 2013 by beating Tsonga and Murray, especially the latter for reasons we already know. A case could be made for either but I don't think we can draw a conclusion from it.

History and the current tennis landscape is firmly in Nadal's favour, can't argue with that. However, it was the same with Nole too and please don't tell me anyone thought Stan would ACTUALLY beat Nole given that Nole was on a streak and even won the first set. This was Nole's backyard and he still lost to a player who does cause him problems but hasn't beaten him at his favourite slam. So, what you may expect to happen may not, because afterall this is sport.
 
I really hope that Fed can keep up playing like against Tsonga and Murray. Fedberg has really brought us back the all court maestro of 2003-2005, that monster can beat anybody. But the aggressive baseliner from 2006-> cannot beat Nadal, never did, never will!

So you haven't seen Fed playing before 2006?

IMO, what happened with Fed was that in 2003-2005, he was a great all court player, coming in on any short balls, and he was hitting relatively flat strokes that penetrated fast through the court. Then he faced Nadal, and for whatever reason, changed his gameplan, which I didn't like AT ALL. He started hitting loopier strokes with more topspin, trying to win Nadal in the topspin battle, which of course never turned out to be a good strategy. He was stubborn in the necessity of this initial change
of strategy, which was not a wise move. A dominant all-court player turned into a more typical aggressive baseliner. And he lost his domination. Why, oh why, did the maestro change a winning formula?? :confused:

Now, for the first time in 8-9 years, he's showed some signs of his real self. I hope maestro is back! If anything, please don't fall back into the losing formula, topspin battle from the baseline, maestro. :eek:
 

msc886

Professional
I really hope that Fed can keep up playing like against Tsonga and Murray. Fedberg has really brought us back the all court maestro of 2003-2005, that monster can beat anybody. But the aggressive baseliner from 2006-> cannot beat Nadal, never did, never will!

I really hope he doesn't chip back slow serves like he did against Murray or push like he did in the latter stages of the tiebreak.

He has to take his opportunities to control the point or he will lose.

He can win but he has to take it. Nadal will not give it to him.
 
M

monfed

Guest
Honestly, if Fed's gonna lose this one, he better go out hitting Rosol-like missile BH returns, rather than meekly chipping BH returns into the net. That is all I ask of Fed, to play brave tennis and go out on his own terms, win or lose. Atleast his conscience will be clear, that he tried but it didn't work out and I'm fine with that. And with that mindset he might just tip the scales in his favour, I mean he has beaten Nadal 10 times so it's not like he doesn't even know how to beat him like Wawrinka and others.

I'd look at old tapes of how he beat Nadal, like Wimby 07,06, WTF matches and try to see a pattern and replicate that in the final. That's called doing your homework and I hope Fed's done that.
 
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Morj

Semi-Pro
Guys come on, compare it to Wimby 2012. Back then Fed was heavily implying even before the tourney began that he was ready to make his move. The way he talked in interviews and such, he fully intended to win that tournament. He was ready to take on Djokovic/Nadal/Murray or whoever he faced (even before Nadal lost early).

Right now he's not talking like that, he seems to be satisfied getting to the semis and a smart player like Federer will probably use this match to try out some new things against Nadal but wont pull out all his tricks, rather wait for when he's truly ready (maybe Wimby/USO?)
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Guys come on, compare it to Wimby 2012. Back then Fed was heavily implying even before the tourney began that he was ready to make his move. The way he talked in interviews and such, he fully intended to win that tournament. He was ready to take on Djokovic/Nadal/Murray or whoever he faced (even before Nadal lost early).

Right now he's not talking like that, he seems to be satisfied getting to the semis and a smart player like Federer will probably use this match to try out some new things against Nadal but wont pull out all his tricks, rather wait for when he's truly ready (maybe Wimby/USO?)
Given their history, Fed desperately wans a win over Rafa and this is his best chance. No Djokovic in the final so basically all he has to do is win this match.

Of course he will lose. But at least he is not afraid to face Rafa as many rafa fans here suggest
 

Thriller

Hall of Fame
I'd look at old tapes of how he beat Nadal, like Wimby 07,06, WTF matches and try to see a pattern and replicate that in the final. That's called doing your homework and I hope Fed's done that.

Injuries aside, the only way I see Federer beating Nadal is if he serves like Karlovic for four hours. His serving saved him at Wimbledon '07 and of course he can get lots of free points on his serve indoors. He needs to be perfect on his serve because his return game is not as good as Nadal's. You always feel that Nadal has the tools to break back at any time, Federer less so.

Speaking about serve, he also has to keep Rafa guessing. There was a startling stat from their meeting in Cincinatti 2013 where by all accounts Federer played his most convincing game against Nadal in ages. In three sets of tennis, when Federer served and Rafa managed to find Federer's backhand with his return, guess how many points Federer won?

Answer: One point ... in three sets.

So watch out for that, if Nadal can consistently find Federer's backhand with his return, I fear it will be a brutally short and unrewarding night for the Swiss.
 

Bartelby

Bionic Poster
If he plays like Dimitrov did in the first set for three or more he can win. And that, as everyone would agree, is doable.

And in the first set Dimitrov's ROS was pretty atrocious.
 

BeHappy

Hall of Fame
It's unlucky he has to face Nadal, even at his absolute peak in 2004 he lost to him on hardcourt. It's purely a match up issue.

I am astounded at Federer's level, his back seems to really be painfree. He's rotating his torso into his shot like he used to and really whipping that forehand again, and seems to be moving more freely than he has since 2011.
 

heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
I think the faster courts (though they are not THAT fast) weigh on Rafa's mind and give Fed an edge. And if they have to close the roof for some reason it's suddenly an indoor match.
 

R_Federer

Professional
Even if he loses I think I will like his chances at Wimbledon this year. He's got mental plus over Murray, has a better game than Djokovic on grass and with the help of a decent draw he could do it at Wimbledon. Now if he wins this AO then 20 slams is not out of question!!!
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
I think OP must be a big fan of Federer. Fed fans tend to play down Fed's chances against Nadal to avoid big disappointments in case he loses. That's understandable. However, I think semifinal is a 50:50 match.

Nadal seemed to have a lot of trouble with his forehand and serve from that blister/palm injury. I've never seen Nadal conceding two of his service games with double faults, in one of them serving 3 doubles. He also made so many unforced errors in the last 2 matches. I think that is an indication his palm is actually preventing him from executing his usual shots with heavy spin. Combined with faster court speed, I think there's a window of opportunity for Federer he can exploit. He will definitely try serve and volley tactics more this time and Nadal will have difficult time dealing with that with his injury.

As for Federer, he is still not back to his best with limited time spent on practice due to his own back injury last year and change of racquet which will take months to make adjustment. The positive thing is that with his last two victories against top opponents, Tsonga and Murray, he may have gained a lot of confidence back. He still is tentative and plays safe shots, showing his confidence is not yet fully back, and he needs to take more risks against Nadal because if he directs his shots to the middle of the court like he did against Murray, Nadal will spray his powerful forehand both corners of Federer's side of the court and the match will be over quickly. He has to go for his shots and make them. That's the only way to force the great defender on his back foot. It will be interesting to see how effective his serve and volley will be against Nadal, and whether Nadal can come up with a lot of passing shots. Both are less than 100%, which makes it even more intriguing.
 

ctoth666

Banned
Have you seen Nadal play? He's downright mediocre at a point in the tournament when he's usually on top of his game. He woudn't beat anyone in the top 10 playing like that, let alone Federer. Especially the way Fed has been playing.

I disagree. Nadal is playing rather poorly but it's good enough to beat everyone except for Djokovic. That's the truth. Let's go back two years or even five years to the other times these two have played at the AO. Both times, Federer LOOKED like the the better player going in. He had more convincing results and he looked in better form. And it's much the same again this time. Federer lost on those previous occasions and he's going to lose again.

I mean seriously: what is he going to do this time that is going to make a difference? Come to the net? He'll get passed and brick volleys. It doesn't matter. This is best of five. Federer hasn't beaten Nadal in that format since a very unconvincing victory, at WIMBLEDON, in 2007. That's 8 years ago. Nadal doesn't get tired, and he doesn't stop running and chasing balls. And he doesn't miss. Federer can't beat that, and he won't. He will play well, perhaps win a set, then Nadal will settle in, and Federer will start to miss, and he will lose.
 

BreakPoint

Bionic Poster
If Nadal plays like he did against Dimitrov, I can't imagine Fed losing. If Nadal plays like he did against Monfils... well, you know the rest.
Agreed. That was the worst I've seen Nadal play in quite some time. If Nadal plays like that again, Federer should win.
 

BreakPoint

Bionic Poster
He has not beaten Nadal in 7 years. I really do not know what hope are you talking about. He is the clear underdog and he knows it too.

OTOH Fed is due a big win over Nadal eventually. Law of averages
I don't know what you're talking about. Federer has beaten Nadal 7 times in the past 7 years.
 

70後

Hall of Fame
Agreed. That was the worst I've seen Nadal play in quite some time. If Nadal plays like that again, Federer should win.

Hey Breakpoint, think Eddie will get Fed to do what you've been advocating since AO 2009 against Nad, serve and volley against the backfence camper. ;) Coz I remember in that match you were pleading with Fed to just s n v *not chip and charge, if he did s n v, he was winning the point. :)
 
D

Deleted member 307496

Guest
Come on, he cleaned Murray out and people thought he could beat Nadal if he got the SF. Federer has a good chance. I haven't seen him play this well at the AO since 2010, I have gathered that his earlier matches were worse quality because of his new stick but he's gotten used to it.
 

BreakPoint

Bionic Poster
Hey Breakpoint, think Eddie will get Fed to do what you've been advocating since AO 2009 against Nad, serve and volley against the backfence camper. ;) Coz I remember in that match you were pleading with Fed to just s n v *not chip and charge, if he did s n v, he was winning the point. :)
I hope Edberg will pound into Federer's brain that he has to serve and volley quite liberally in this match. Did you see how far back Nadal was standing to receive Dimitrov's serves? I was tearing my hair out yelling at Dimitrov to serve and volley behind those massive serves of his, which often produced weak returns from Nadal. He never did and he had no chance trying to out rally Nadal from the baseline.
 
D

Deleted member 307496

Guest
Not to mention his serve was fantastic when he faced off against Murray. If he brings that to Nadal it will be a close affair.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
I hope Edberg will pound into Federer's brain that he has to serve and volley quite liberally in this match. Did you see how far back Nadal was standing to receive Dimitrov's serves? I was tearing my hair out yelling at Dimitrov to serve and volley behind those massive serves of his, which often produced weak returns from Nadal. He never did and he had no chance trying to out rally Nadal from the baseline.

You do realise Nadal's passing shot ability is second to none? Fed can approach the net at his own peril. The only time he should be coming in is when it's clear that he can finish off the volley, but I doubt he'd want to be venturing to the net often against Nadal.
 

user92626

G.O.A.T.
I disagree. Nadal is playing rather poorly but it's good enough to beat everyone except for Djokovic. That's the truth. Let's go back two years or even five years to the other times these two have played at the AO. Both times, Federer LOOKED like the the better player going in. He had more convincing results and he looked in better form. And it's much the same again this time. Federer lost on those previous occasions and he's going to lose again.

I mean seriously: what is he going to do this time that is going to make a difference? Come to the net? He'll get passed and brick volleys. It doesn't matter. This is best of five. Federer hasn't beaten Nadal in that format since a very unconvincing victory, at WIMBLEDON, in 2007. That's 8 years ago. Nadal doesn't get tired, and he doesn't stop running and chasing balls. And he doesn't miss. Federer can't beat that, and he won't. He will play well, perhaps win a set, then Nadal will settle in, and Federer will start to miss, and he will lose.

+1.

Fed fans probably gonna hate this post but can't offer any counter points.
 

sam_p

Professional
Nadal has never beat Federer at a slam in Federer's prime outside of FO.

That's just crazy talk - W 2008, AO 2009 just off the bat. Oh, so you're going to say Fed was out of his prime by 2008. That's just silly and actually damning of Fed.

In fact Fed has only beaten Nadal twice in slams IN HIS WHOlE CAREER!
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
Prime Federer: 04-07. You think Federer was in his prime at 27? LOL@U Everyone was saying Federer is getting older when he was 27.

Well sorry to break this to you but he was getting older when he was 21 as well.

You're confusing peak with prime.

Prime years are the years where you are competing at the top level and are a key contender at the majors.

Peak years are when you're playing your best and reached your top level, hence the term peak.

At 26-27 Federer definitely wasn't out of his prime at all. LOL he made the final of every major at age 27-28 back in 2009, you can't do that and be considered out of your prime it makes no sense.
 

sam_p

Professional
Prime Federer: 04-07. You think Federer was in his prime at 27? LOL@U Everyone was saying Federer is getting older when he was 27.

LOL - you just disqualified Fed from GOAT status all by yourself. How could the GOAT be over the hill by 27? By your interpretation Nadal has already surpassed Fed on longevity alone!
 

sam_p

Professional
No, Federer's prime was over by the end of 2006. :lol:

Fed fans are just silly. They contort themselves into knots. They want to believe that his prime was like a fleeting flower, so perfect. The reality is that he had no one to compete with until Nadal came along and started eating his lunch.
 
Every match has it's own history. Federer beat Nadal 10 times, it's not like he doesn't know how to win against him.

Not all matches are created equal.

In slams Nadal is actually undefeated since 2008....the year he made his breakthrough and shed his clay court specialist status.

In fact the only slam wins Fed has is on grass when Nadal was still a boy.

The rest of the record just is unimportant completely.
 
D

Deleted member 307496

Guest
Well sorry to break this to you but he was getting older when he was 21 as well.

You're confusing peak with prime.

Prime years are the years where you are competing at the top level and are a key contender at the majors.

Peak years are when you're playing your best and reached your top level, hence the term peak.

At 26-27 Federer definitely wasn't out of his prime at all. LOL he made the final of every major at age 27-28 back in 2009, you can't do that and be considered out of your prime it makes no sense.
Fed could have actually only come to the end of his prime in 2013. He was very good for many years and this is really good for his legacy. Everyone who isn't a big fanboy of Fed knows and accepts that he's always had a problem with Nadal.
 

R_Federer

Professional
Not all matches are created equal.

In slams Nadal is actually undefeated since 2008....the year he made his breakthrough and shed his clay court specialist status.

In fact the only slam wins Fed has is on grass when Nadal was still a boy.

The rest of the record just is unimportant completely.

They haven't met at a slam after 08 slam other than on clay and slow AO.
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Yes, Federer maintained his high level until 2012. I think he could've extended it till now if not for his back injury last year. However, much like 2011 was a crazy peak year for Novak, it seems 2004-2007 was the peak of Federer. I'm sure Federer will start playing well again once he sorts out some of the issues like fitness and racquet change. He is slower than 10 years ago, no doubt, but he is still one of the top players, possibly big 4.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
Fed could have actually only come to the end of his prime in 2013. He was very good for many years and this is really good for his legacy. Everyone who isn't a big fanboy of Fed knows and accepts that he's always had a problem with Nadal.

Fed prime = mid 2003 to late 2012

Pre-prime = 1998 - early 2003

Post-prime = 2013 - retirement


That's how I see it anyway.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
They haven't met at a slam after 08 slam other than on clay and slow AO.

Nadal would've beat him in WIM10 and US10.

In 2011 would've been closer at those tournaments but still give the edge to Nadal.

Only 2012 WIM I think Fed would've beat Nadal.

2013 USO Fed no chance.
 

RogerRacket111

Semi-Pro
I agree don't get your hopes up expect Fed to lose. If he has something new up his sleeve great. If not I don't see any major changes in Fed game to avoid the bad match up
 
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