Why Federer Doesn't Need Clay for YE#1

NBP

NBP

Hall of Fame
I've done some calculations, and winning Miami was actually pretty big for Fed. If we compare 2017 to 2014 (when he last got 9,000+ points), then it's easy to see clay doesn't matter. In 2014 he finished with 9,775 points, and with the climate of the tour right now, that should be enough to be #1, probably even less...

Right now he has 4,045 points. In April. It took him til after Wimbledon in 2014 to equal that. So he's well on course.

So for the remainder of the year, with his probable schedule and leeway for poor results, here's what would be enough, you'd think -

RG - 4R [180]
Stuttgart - SF [90]
Halle - F [300]
Wimbledon - W [2000]
Montreal - 3R [90]
Cincinnati - W [1000]
USO - 4R [180]
Shanghai - SF [360]
Basel - W [500]
WTF - SF [600]

All of that would come to 9,345 points. I have the feeling he won't win both Stuttgart and Halle. But just to be on the safe side, I've put him title-less at both. He'll probably do better at the US, but again, he'll be 36, so off days can come. TBH this looks sooooo do-able for him. He gets enough rest in between some events (doesn't even need to play Montreal), and doesn't even need to win Cincy, but not winning there means he needs a deep run in New York and maybe win Halle instead.

Nobody is having a Djokovic 2015-esque run this year. Even Murrays May-November 2016 wouldn't kick it, because he still had a big 1,200 from Australia last year. And Rafa might lead the race in June, but I don't see him doing much in the second part of the year. So yeah, a Wimbledon title and surely he'd end #1.

If there are any wrong calculations, tell me.
 
He won't win either Halle or Stuttgart? I admire your calculations, but they are slightly conservative I would say. If he plays half as well as he has so far this year, he should sweep the grass season, including Wimby. At the very least he should make every final. USO 4R is also a tad conservative IMO.
 
Zebrev said:
He won't win either Halle or Stuttgart? I admire your calculations, but they are slightly conservative I would say. If he plays half as well as he has so far this year, he should sweep the grass season, including Wimby. At the very least he should make every final. USO 4R is also a tad conservative IMO.
Click to expand...
Yeah conservative is what I was going for. I mean, he'll probably win Halle, but just get the feeling not both Halle and Stuttgart. US Open he'll probably do better too, but even with a fourth round #1 is still well within his grasp.
 
I like that estimate and that is conservative. Even if he only makes Wimbledon F the other 800 points can be made up with winning Halle (extra 200) and making USO SF/F (extra 540-1000 points).

I can't wait for Wimbledon and grass season now. Even on a busted knee he made the SF and choked a break lead vs Raonic. Now he's 100% fit, playing superb attacking tennis, will be rested after a light clay schedule? He's gotta be one of the big favourites.

I'm still looking forward to clay as well. Will be interesting to see how Murrovic come back and how Nadal fares. Hopefully the titles are spread out so Fed can stay ahead in the race. Thiem grabbing one of the masters would be useful.
 
NBP said:
Yeah conservative is what I was going for. I mean, he'll probably win Halle, but just get the feeling not both Halle and Stuttgart. US Open he'll probably do better too, but even with a fourth round #1 is still well within his grasp.
Click to expand...

Trust me, Roger will make it to #1. Andy is a grinder turning 30 - not a good position to be in. He won't be able to defend all those points in the second half of the year, and so far he hasn't made up for it with early wins. Infact, if I'm not mistaken Andy has actually lost points, despite not playing much last year. I think Zverev, Kurious and Thiem will all soak up points pretty evenly. Bagging 1 Slam and 2 masters this earlyon puts Roger in the driving seat.
 
There is no way Federer is playing that many tournaments. I don't see him playing the full NA hardcourt summer - and he might even axe what little he has on his plate for the Asian Swing. I think people are sleeping on Djokovic big time. It's understandable given his mediocre results so far, but he is the defending Rolland Garros champion and US Open finalist. Even if Federer stuck to this scenario, Djokovic would be able to challenge Federer's ranking with his own two slams and a solid clay season.
 
Why can't Roger win Roland Garros? He proved he can win a slam with 6 months off? Why not with 8 weeks off?

That's 2000 points right there and would virtually guarantee him #1 after Wimbledon.
 
Inanimate_object said:
There is no way Federer is playing that many tournaments. I don't see him playing the full NA hardcourt summer - and he might even axe what little he has on his plate for the Asian Swing. I think people are sleeping on Djokovic big time. It's understandable given his mediocre results so far, but he is the defending Rolland Garros champion and US Open finalist. Even if Federer stuck to this scenario, Djokovic would be able to challenge Federer's ranking with his own two slams and a solid clay season.
Click to expand...
I hear you but he did say last summer that he had ''the 16-17 tournaments panned out in my mind''. So that tells me definitely one of Shanghai/Paris, and potentially Montreal. Even without Montreal that's only 90 points I put him down for. And as for Djok, don't see him winning 4 or 5 of the remaining 7 Masters events. A good year for him right now would be a slam and 3 Masters.
 
NBP said:
I hear you but he did say last summer that he had ''the 16-17 tournaments panned out in my mind''. So that tells me definitely one of Shanghai/Paris, and potentially Montreal. Even without Montreal that's only 90 points I put him down for. And as for Djok, don't see him winning 4 or 5 of the remaining 7 Masters events. A good year for him right now would be a slam and 3 Masters.
Click to expand...
I just can't see how it is a tenable schedule. Even looking at the outline for Roland Garros through to the Open, that's more regular tournaments than Federer has ever played in that timespan for over 10 years (barring a desperate 2013 season where he was scrounging for points). If he's unwilling to play any of Euro clay (and I actually think he will reconsider that) for fitness purposes, there's no way he can keep up that schedule. I find it highly, highly unlikely Federer will be able to threaten for No. 1 unless he makes inroads during clay season.

And whatever people may think of Djokovic; when athletes of that caliber get knocked down, rarely do they stay down. Even now he is arguably the best clay courter in the world and one of the most consistent hardcourter players around. Count him out at your own peril.
 
Even though Roger is doing great right now you never know what comes. Another GS title would be huge and I honestly don't believe so yet. The margins at the Australian Open were super tight and also in Miami he barely won vs Berdych & Kyrgios.
Also "just" adding another title in Cincy would be quite a thing.

Let's just see step by step and hope he'll stay healthy. I wouldn't "go" for #1 right now. If it happens, it happens. Rather stay focussed tournament by tournament, game by game and skip it if necessary.
 
Doesn't need #1 but he could pad his point total easily at the clay masters even without winning.

The good news is he has no points to defend from everything Post-Wimby to WTF. But now he's almost required to go deep in Wimby to defend those points, win Cinncy, go deep in Flushing, and then have a fantastic indoor season which isn't out of the possibility as long as a healthy Novak isn't there to stop him.
 
Rog leads the race with over 4000p. Rafa is next with 2200+, then its Stan with 1500. Djoko and Andy are more than 3000p behind.

The way things are its probably just Rafa and/or Stan who will be ahead of Fed after FO. I dont see Rafa as a threat with grass/indoor season ahead. Stan has never shown to be a nr1 rank contender.

Federer will have a very good chance at YE#1. As OP says, you probably wont need a huge amount of points to win.
 
Rafa the King said:
This is Rafa's road to 9,4K
MC: win
BAR: win
MAD: sf
ROM: sf
RG: win
6500 points

Queens: QF
WIM: R4
TOR: SF
CIN: QF
USO: SF
8000 points

BEI: SF
SHA: QF
BAS: SF
PAR: QF
WTF: SF
9400 points

Rog's looks more doable but this isn't impossible
Click to expand...

The unpredictability !

Who would have thought in 2016 that Roger and Rafa both will have realistic chances of becoming number one in 2017? :eek:
 
I suspect Fed is #2 after the FO in the race, unless there's a surprise winner. If Fed reaches FO QF, he'll have 4400. The winner of the FO gains 2000, and will probably have done well in the warm-ups at least say 2F in the Masters or a W/SF, netting 3200-3400. That means right now they could have as low as 1000 points to catch up to Fed.
 
enlightenment said:
I suspect Fed is #2 after the FO in the race, unless there's a surprise winner. If Fed reaches FO QF, he'll have 4400. The winner of the FO gains 2000, and will probably have done well in the warm-ups at least say 2F in the Masters or a W/SF, netting 3200-3400. That means right now they could have as low as 1000 points to catch up to Fed.
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At the moment, Rafa is the most likely point leader after FO. I wonder what he is planning though, playing MC, Barca, Madrid and Rome with his age, knees and elbows cant be smart. Last year he had to retire from FO. He should skip Madrid or Rome.
 
I am gonna call it now. Federer wins Roland Garros if he's on the opposite side of the draw from Stan.

He can beat Rafa, Nole, Murray, Thiem at clay this year. He hasn't played RG in 2 years. He will be back with style and a motivation. If he didnt feel he could win RG he would not play it. The only few that can stop him are a Good Day Cilic. Maybe Zone Kyrgios. Stanimal. That's it.

He has consistently defied expectations this season. He's going to make history this year. CYGS.
 
Cilic or Kyrgios on the dirt no way they beat Roger.

But I agress with you, Stanimal is the one to worry about.

But if Nadal doesn't play too godd on warmups, Roger still might be #4 seed at RG, so there could be Nadal, Djokovic, and Wawrinka in a half of the draw, and Roger on the other side.
 
NBP said:
I've done some calculations, and winning Miami was actually pretty big for Fed. If we compare 2017 to 2014 (when he last got 9,000+ points), then it's easy to see clay doesn't matter. In 2014 he finished with 9,775 points, and with the climate of the tour right now, that should be enough to be #1, probably even less...

Right now he has 4,045 points. In April. It took him til after Wimbledon in 2014 to equal that. So he's well on course.

So for the remainder of the year, with his probable schedule and leeway for poor results, here's what would be enough, you'd think -

RG - 4R [180]
Stuttgart - SF [90]
Halle - F [300]
Wimbledon - W [2000]
Montreal - 3R [90]
Cincinnati - W [1000]
USO - 4R [180]
Shanghai - SF [360]
Basel - W [500]
WTF - SF [600]

All of that would come to 9,345 points. I have the feeling he won't win both Stuttgart and Halle. But just to be on the safe side, I've put him title-less at both. He'll probably do better at the US, but again, he'll be 36, so off days can come. TBH this looks sooooo do-able for him. He gets enough rest in between some events (doesn't even need to play Montreal), and doesn't even need to win Cincy, but not winning there means he needs a deep run in New York and maybe win Halle instead.

Nobody is having a Djokovic 2015-esque run this year. Even Murrays May-November 2016 wouldn't kick it, because he still had a big 1,200 from Australia last year. And Rafa might lead the race in June, but I don't see him doing much in the second part of the year. So yeah, a Wimbledon title and surely he'd end #1.

If there are any wrong calculations, tell me.
Click to expand...

It's very unlikely that 9000 plus points would be enough for No. 1. When Murray overtook Djokovic last year, both were more than 11500 points. Your calculation doesn't take into account that other players will won titles among clay masters, French OPen, Canada, US Open, Shanghai, Paris, WTF. IF one player dominates the other titles won, he will be NO.1

Fed needs to win more to be #1
 
I think this will be Fed's schedule for the rest of the year.

RG
Halle
Wimby
Cincy
USO
Shanghai
Basel
WTF

If he averages SF, he'll have 720+180+720+360+720+360+180+400(conservative 2 wins at RR) = 3640 pts

He already has 4045, so I think 7,685 pts will be very achievable. If he wins any of the slams, that will be extra 1280 pts which will bring the total up to 8,965 pts. I guess average SF is achievable for Fed but he'll need to win 2-3 more tournaments on top of that to be YE#1. Due to the dismal results so far from Murray and Djokovic, I think 9,500 pts may be enough to get YE#1 this year. By no means easy, but possible.
 
roysid said:
It's very unlikely that 9000 plus points would be enough for No. 1. When Murray overtook Djokovic last year, both were more than 11500 points. Your calculation doesn't take into account that other players will won titles among clay masters, French OPen, Canada, US Open, Shanghai, Paris, WTF. IF one player dominates the other titles won, he will be NO.1

Fed needs to win more to be #1
Click to expand...

I actually think this year #1 could be reached with maybe 8,000 points...possibly even less.
While you have a point the reality is, beyond Federer (& to a lesser extent Nadal) no one else on tour has shown enough consistency to emerge as a contender, let alone rack up 8,000+ points.
Sure it's still very early in the season, we of course have 3 x Slams, 7 x M1000 events, WTF & a heap of 500 & 250 tournaments to go & if someone can find some consistent form & get hot then the goal posts may change.
As it stands though, Federer has won everything of any significance this season & with Nadal seemingly unable to stop him, 8,0000 points could very well be all it takes to finish year at #1...I mean you only need more than the bloke at #2 to finish #1....
 
chjtennis said:
I think this will be Fed's schedule for the rest of the year.

RG
Halle
Wimby
Cincy
USO
Shanghai
Basel
WTF

If he averages SF, he'll have 720+180+720+360+720+360+180+400(conservative 2 wins at RR) = 3640 pts

He already has 4045, so I think 7,685 pts will be very achievable. If he wins any of the slams, that will be extra 1280 pts which will bring the total up to 8,965 pts. I guess average SF is achievable for Fed but he'll need to win 2-3 more tournaments on top of that to be YE#1. Due to the dismal results so far from Murray and Djokovic, I think 9,500 pts may be enough to get YE#1 this year. By no means easy, but possible.
Click to expand...
He's playing Stuttgart before Halle
 
Dave1982 said:
I actually think this year #1 could be reached with maybe 8,000 points...possibly even less.
While you have a point the reality is, beyond Federer (& to a lesser extent Nadal) no one else on tour has shown enough consistency to emerge as a contender, let alone rack up 8,000+ points.
Sure it's still very early in the season, we of course have 3 x Slams, 7 x M1000 events, WTF & a heap of 500 & 250 tournaments to go & if someone can find some consistent form & get hot then the goal posts may change.
As it stands though, Federer has won everything of any significance this season & with Nadal seemingly unable to stop him, 8,0000 points could very well be all it takes to finish year at #1...I mean you only need more than the bloke at #2 to finish #1....
Click to expand...

Yeah, 8,0000 points should be enough, albeit just barely.
 
SpinToWin said:
He's playing Stuttgart before Halle
Click to expand...

Even though that's on his current schedule, I highly doubt he will be able to play there unless he loses early at RG. I even think it's possible that Federer has some success at RG and gets to SF or further, and then he plays Wimbledon next.
 
chjtennis said:
Even though that's on his current schedule, I highly doubt he will be able to play there unless he loses early at RG. I even think it's possible that Federer has some success at RG and gets to SF or further, and then he plays Wimbledon next.
Click to expand...
He has signed a contract with Stuttgart so... Besides, rallies at Stuttgart are as short or shoter than at Halle, I don't think it'd put too much strain on him, especially considering his current aggressive return game.
 
TheMaestro1990 said:
Yeah, 8,0000 points should be enough, albeit just barely.
Click to expand...
Dave1982 said:
I actually think this year #1 could be reached with maybe 8,000 points...possibly even less.
While you have a point the reality is, beyond Federer (& to a lesser extent Nadal) no one else on tour has shown enough consistency to emerge as a contender, let alone rack up 8,000+ points.
Sure it's still very early in the season, we of course have 3 x Slams, 7 x M1000 events, WTF & a heap of 500 & 250 tournaments to go & if someone can find some consistent form & get hot then the goal posts may change.
As it stands though, Federer has won everything of any significance this season & with Nadal seemingly unable to stop him, 8,0000 points could very well be all it takes to finish year at #1...I mean you only need more than the bloke at #2 to finish #1....
Click to expand...
8.000 ain't likely to cut it.
In 2009, when there was no outright dominant player, you still had 3 players above 8.000: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2009-12-21&rankRange=0-100

In 2003, you also had 3 players above 8.000: (you can more or less multiply the points with 2 to get the equivalent of current points):
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2003-12-22&rankRange=0-100
In 2002 it would have been enough if you take no. 1. out: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2002-12-09&rankRange=0-100
Same with 2001 but barely: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2001-12-24&rankRange=0-100

Edit, take a look: https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...1-cincinnati-2017.583929/page-3#post-11108215

@falstaff78 made a great thread about Fed's road to no. 1. a while back.
roysid said:
It's very unlikely that 9000 plus points would be enough for No. 1. When Murray overtook Djokovic last year, both were more than 11500 points. Your calculation doesn't take into account that other players will won titles among clay masters, French OPen, Canada, US Open, Shanghai, Paris, WTF. IF one player dominates the other titles won, he will be NO.1

Fed needs to win more to be #1
Click to expand...
agree that 8.000 won't cut it, but 11.500 is not the true benchmark either. Let's not forget that at this stage of the season last year, Djoko had 4.000+ points and Murray had 1650 after Monte Carlo (which seems in jeopardy now).
Now, Djoko is yet to reach 500 points and Murray is about yet to reach 800. Plus Murray had never been above 10.000 points before and is quite unlikely to repeat last season from Wimb and onwards imo.

All in all, 9.000 might cut it for Fed. 10.000 would give him a very good shot and anything above 10.500 should give him an extremely good shot unless GOATovic makes a reappearance.

Edit: Here's falstaffs conclusion:
"If Federer skips the entire clay season, and THEN replicates his 2014-2015 form, he will just about get 10k points. And that will be enough for YE#1 unless one of the following shows up: Murray 2016, Nadal 2013 or Djokovic 2011-15"
 
Last edited:
Chanwan said:
8.000 ain't likely to cut it.
In 2009, when there was no outright dominant player, you still had 3 players above 8.000: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2009-12-21&rankRange=0-100

In 2003, you also had 3 players above 8.000: (you can more or less multiply the points with 2 to get the equivalent of current points):
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2003-12-22&rankRange=0-100
In 2002 it would have been enough if you take no. 1. out: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2002-12-09&rankRange=0-100
Same with 2001 but barely: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2001-12-24&rankRange=0-100

Edit, take a look: https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...1-cincinnati-2017.583929/page-3#post-11108215

@falstaff78 made a great thread about Fed's road to no. 1. a while back.

agree that 8.000 won't cut it, but 11.500 is not the true benchmark either. Let's not forget that at this stage of the season last year, Djoko had 4.000+ points and Murray had 1650 after Monte Carlo (which seems in jeopardy now).
Now, Djoko is yet to reach 500 points and Murray is about yet to reach 800. Plus Murray had never been above 10.000 points before and is quite unlikely to repeat last season from Wimb and onwards imo.

All in all, 9.000 might cut it for Fed. 10.000 would give him a very good shot and anything above 10.500 should give him an extremely good shot unless GOATovic makes a reappearance.

Edit: Here's falstaffs conclusion:
"If Federer skips the entire clay season, and THEN replicates his 2014-2015 form, he will just about get 10k points. And that will be enough for YE#1 unless one of the following shows up: Murray 2016, Nadal 2013 or Djokovic 2011-15"
Click to expand...

You are most probably right, history certainly suggests a points tally of closer to 10K as opposed to 8K will be required for YE#1...however based on current form, 10K doesn't seem beyond Federer, especially with so many points still on offer, particularly at some of his favored events.

What could drag the required number down could be if some new players start winning the M1000 events...over the past decade the Big 4 have basically shared these amongst themselves & this (coupled with their dominance at Slams) is really what's seen them dominate the rankings & more specifically inflate the points required to finish YE#1.
Obviously to an extent this trend has continued in 2017 - with a member of the Big 4 winning all 3 of the significant titles contested thus far & another member featuring in 2 of the 3 Finals.
Reality is though, if some new faces can start to emerge along with Djokovic & Murray winning a few titles along the way we could easily see 3 (possibly 4) different Slam winners & maybe as many as 5 or 6 different M1000 winners...such a spread would almost certainly bring the points required for YE#1 down (as you've indicated), question is how far down this will be.
 
Dave1982 said:
You are most probably right, history certainly suggests a points tally of closer to 10K as opposed to 8K will be required for YE#1...however based on current form, 10K doesn't seem beyond Federer, especially with so many points still on offer, particularly at some of his favored events.

What could drag the required number down could be if some new players start winning the M1000 events...over the past decade the Big 4 have basically shared these amongst themselves & this (coupled with their dominance at Slams) is really what's seen them dominate the rankings & more specifically inflate the points required to finish YE#1.
Obviously to an extent this trend has continued in 2017 - with a member of the Big 4 winning all 3 of the significant titles contested thus far & another member featuring in 2 of the 3 Finals.
Reality is though, if some new faces can start to emerge along with Djokovic & Murray winning a few titles along the way we could easily see 3 (possibly 4) different Slam winners & maybe as many as 5 or 6 different M1000 winners...such a spread would almost certainly bring the points required for YE#1 down (as you've indicated), question is how far down this will be.
Click to expand...
Good points, personally, I do think 9.000 might be enough. Kyrgios, Thiem and Zverev could all take quite a few Masters points this year, while not getting anywhere close to a no. 1. threat. Stan as well of course. Raonic + Nishi and Dimi too if injury does not overtake them.
Still, 8.000 is not a lot, so I do think a minimum of 9.000 is needed. But I don't think it's a priority for Fed, hence the clay skipping. All his focus is on Wimbledon + US. If he wins one, then he's got a very, very good chance of becoming no. 1.
So his mindset is all about winning and then the ranking will take care of itself.
 
SpinToWin said:
He has signed a contract with Stuttgart so... Besides, rallies at Stuttgart are as short or shoter than at Halle, I don't think it'd put too much strain on him, especially considering his current aggressive return game.
Click to expand...

Even though he signed the contract, he can still pull out if required. Imagine him playing gruel 5 setter on Friday SF. It will be impossible to ply a tournament the following week and then the next week again. That's tough even for a 25 yo, let alone a 36 yo who's turning 36 soon.
 
chjtennis said:
Even though he signed the contract, he can still pull out if required. Imagine him playing gruel 5 setter on Friday SF. It will be impossible to ply a tournament the following week and then the next week again. That's tough even for a 25 yo, let alone a 36 yo who's turning 36 soon.
Click to expand...
I doubt he'll make it that far at RG tbh.
 
A Slam and 2 Masters is enough for #3.

This is the kind of year 9,000 might be enough for YE #1. In which case Federer can coast if he just wins another Slam or makes 2 Finals.

I mean, he's going to pick up a few easy 500 titles for filler. Considering how well he did in Miami, I wouldn't be surprised with a French Semi either.
 
Inanimate_object said:
.I think people are sleeping on Djokovic big time. It's understandable given his mediocre results so far, but he is the defending Rolland Garros champion and US Open finalist. Even if Federer stuck to this scenario, Djokovic would be able to challenge Federer's ranking with his own two slams and a solid clay season.
Click to expand...
I see this as a big liability for Djokovic. He won the French with Federer and Nadal basically absent, and ditto at the US Open. With those two back in the mix semifinals suddenly are against much more experienced and difficult opponents... and that makes the quarter-finals harder too.

If Djokovic doesn't defend the French Open he's down 800 points even if he makes the final... That offsets what he could realistically hope to gain at Wimbledon unless he miraculously won it with everyone there for a change. And ditto at the US Open - the full crew will likely be there this year.
 
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