He will only play one more 500 (Halle), before that Stuttgart (250) and the rest are masters and GS.
No easy pick ups (except Halle and Stuttgart).
Why Federer Doesn't Need Clay for YE#1
- Thread starter NBP
- Start date
No easy pick ups (except Halle and Stuttgart).
RG SF 720
Halle W 500
Wimbledon W 2000
Real Slam W 1000
US Open SF 720
Basel W 500
WTF F 800 (with a loss in the RR)
That makes already 10285, with the only optimistic result for Federe being a win at SW19. But even if he makes only final there, he's already at 9485, which might be enough.
And this is considering he'll skip Stuttgart, all clay masters, Montreal, Shangai and Paris.
Halle W 500
Wimbledon W 2000
Real Slam W 1000
US Open SF 720
Basel W 500
WTF F 800 (with a loss in the RR)
That makes already 10285, with the only optimistic result for Federe being a win at SW19. But even if he makes only final there, he's already at 9485, which might be enough.
And this is considering he'll skip Stuttgart, all clay masters, Montreal, Shangai and Paris.
BGod
G.O.A.T.
Doubt he will skip the last 2 masters. Both are close to fast HC now so he'll want to play one. Maybe Paris as its close to London.
Think he's confirmed for Stuttgart as he enjoys expanded grass season.
Think about it he played both slow HC which doesn't suit his game. Why would he skip 3 faster HC masters where he's a beast? I could actually see him going to play Canada or something as well soon Cincy. Properly go for YE#1 if he's skipping most of clay.
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Oh sorry, I forgot Basel, he'll obviously play that until 2019 if I recall correctly.
Luckydog
Professional
Hah,if so,Nadal must be the greatest possum of all time.
But frankly,Nadal does have a great shot to clutch huge points in clay season on the condition that Roger's on vacation and Murrovic are all out of zone.Young guns will really threaten him.Bull should be careful.
moonballs
Hall of Fame
Unlikely. The real problem is the baseliners who are playing well like RBA in Miami.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
Federer and Nadal both played Wimbledon all three times Djokovic won there. Same with the U.S. Open.
noobforehand20
Professional
well i mean he still will have 4000 points in masters and 1500 in the WTF to play for besides the 6000 in slams, at the end its not so much about skipping clay but more about skipping 3 masters, thats 3000 points you are not even giving yourself the chance to play for regardless of how unlikely it would be to do well, remember he took a last minute wildcard in montecarlo 2014 and got to the final so yeah you never would know, personally i think he should play just one clay masters and roland garros and only play halle as a warm up, i think winning stuttgard points wise is outweighed by the fact that he would have to play straight away after the clay wich i dont think would be the best idea for a knee, look what has happened to rafa because of the sudden change from clay to grass all these years.
surely federer is resting and gearing up for a strong second half, but i do think it is a bit unrealistic to play 3 grass tournaments and besides planing to play the two hardcourt masters before the us open, remember what happened in 2014, did extremely well in both and paid the price of so much grinding at the open, those are things that should be taken into consideration because actually planing to play so much in a short amount of time can backfire him at the worst moment as it has happened in the past, ideally i would want him to play one clay masters, play halle for warm up, and play cincy and then the open, surely after the us open he will defenitely know how close he could be to the top spot and in that case he can think about adding more tournaments depending on that, but to me it should be more about quality rather than quality and to accomplish that a 250 grass event should be replaced with a clay 1000, and take away montreal (it hurts me to say that) to be in the best positions for al 3 remaining slams, with that theres a higher chance of going deeper and make more appropiate adjustments at the end of the year if necesary.
i say this because i would rather give up watching him play more on grass for the chance of him reaching #1
surely federer is resting and gearing up for a strong second half, but i do think it is a bit unrealistic to play 3 grass tournaments and besides planing to play the two hardcourt masters before the us open, remember what happened in 2014, did extremely well in both and paid the price of so much grinding at the open, those are things that should be taken into consideration because actually planing to play so much in a short amount of time can backfire him at the worst moment as it has happened in the past, ideally i would want him to play one clay masters, play halle for warm up, and play cincy and then the open, surely after the us open he will defenitely know how close he could be to the top spot and in that case he can think about adding more tournaments depending on that, but to me it should be more about quality rather than quality and to accomplish that a 250 grass event should be replaced with a clay 1000, and take away montreal (it hurts me to say that) to be in the best positions for al 3 remaining slams, with that theres a higher chance of going deeper and make more appropiate adjustments at the end of the year if necesary.
i say this because i would rather give up watching him play more on grass for the chance of him reaching #1
Yes, I don't think either that he will skip 3 masters on fast HC, but I did this on purpose to have a worst case scenario of what Fed could play.
He doesnt seem to fear jet lags since he's coming back to the states to play MFA#4, so he will play Shangai. But Montreal he skipped it already in 2015, he might want to take a good break after Wimby, so it's not unrealistic.
Paris I think 99% he'll skip it. It's right next to Basel, and he never enjoyed playing there. He was to skip it in 2014 but he played it because the #1 was possible.
If a win at the WTF guarantees him the YE#1, he won't play Paris. If he needs it to be #1, of course he will play it.
NBP
Hall of Fame
Literally everything you said is true. Also how I feel about how Toronto and Cincinnati ruined his chances at the US in 2014, but he played well at both events. Would also like him to play Montreal, but he probably won't. Also agree with Stuttgart. Makes no sense to play there. I think he should play Rome, Halle, Wimbledon, Montreal, Cincy and the the US Open. Probably better to play Canada, and then take a month break after the US and come back in Basel, maybe not even play Paris too.
D
Deleted member 743561
Guest
Would be incredible. Amazing to me that it's become even a remote possibility! I keep waiting for the wheels to fall off, though (although it's seemed inevitable numerous times previously). No one foresaw this level of return for him. If he's away from the game again--for a matter of months, for all intents and purposes--and nature takes its course, there's gotta be a drop-off. Right?! Yikes, hard to put it past him, though.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
One clay tournament is missing and one more grass is planned.
Other than that it looks good.
TheMusicLover
G.O.A.T.
Federer doesn't 'need' YE #1 to start with, so the entire premise of this thread is bunk.
Feds and his team will most possibly make the most sensible decision, which is, only play the tournaments which his body allows him to do so at his age and mileage.
Which probably means that he'll be taking long breaks, to ensure being able to play on as long as possible, with decent (or even better) results.
Skipping the entire clay season (with the exception of RG I suppose), where he most probably has no business showing up at all, seems like the proper decision.
To the long-term benefit of himself, and his fans, to be able to enjoy seeing him playing as long as possible.
There is no need whatsoever for him to chase #1, and as a fan, I'd rather not see him even attempt doing so.
The guy's resume is already cemented in stone.
Not for the first time, folks are getting greedy, and ahead of themselves, on this forum once again.
Feds and his team will most possibly make the most sensible decision, which is, only play the tournaments which his body allows him to do so at his age and mileage.
Which probably means that he'll be taking long breaks, to ensure being able to play on as long as possible, with decent (or even better) results.
Skipping the entire clay season (with the exception of RG I suppose), where he most probably has no business showing up at all, seems like the proper decision.
To the long-term benefit of himself, and his fans, to be able to enjoy seeing him playing as long as possible.
There is no need whatsoever for him to chase #1, and as a fan, I'd rather not see him even attempt doing so.
The guy's resume is already cemented in stone.
Not for the first time, folks are getting greedy, and ahead of themselves, on this forum once again.
NBP
Hall of Fame
YAWN
TheMusicLover
G.O.A.T.
NBP
Hall of Fame
I'm not being greedy. Fed could be ranked 80 for all it matters, all I care about it seeing him play. I just noted what had to be done to be number 1, and how clay is irrelevant to that.Interesting. Tell me what's troubling you so much.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
Fed fans getting greedy?! Perish the thought!
roysid
Legend
Bumping up this thread. One player(Nadal) indeed is dominating the clay tournaments. Already at 4700 + points for the year end race and at #1 in race. With Rome and French Open around he will be much ahead. Fed has to really well post French Open to regain the race and be +1.
Feather
Legend
There is nothing greedy in wanting your favorite player to be year end number one.
As a fan I would like to see him be year end number one and chase that. It's another thing whether he achieves it or not. I am pretty sure Roger himself would be chasing year end number one.
I think he will play a full schedule after RG, without skipping any masters like Roger's cup
TheMusicLover
G.O.A.T.
Nothing 'wrong' with it, but you have to be realistic - at the age of 35, it's just impossible to keep going without having regular breaks, as the toll on one's body would become too big otherwise.
Roger in fact said this himself. There's no point in slugging it out on a surface where he has minor chances of winning (especially with Nadal around in his current form), and risking injury and/or fatigue, damaging his chances on surfaces where he has a much better chance of winning, i.e. grass and perhaps HC, too.
I happen to think that he's chasing more big titles first and foremost, most notably Wimbledon.
If he succeeds in doing so, the ranking will come naturally as a result of it.
I don't, but we'll just have to wait and see.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
True, but who are the others in contention to be YE#1. Soon to be 31 year old Nadal who has been terrible at Wimbledon for years now, and is very beatable at the USO, not to mention the indoor season. Injured, 30 year old Murray (happy birthday Andy) who has been horrible all year and also rarely does well at the USO or even the WTF barring last year. And we all know soon to be 30 year old Djokovic's struggles. Not saying he can't turn it around, but it's not looking good. No one else is truly in contention IMO. MAYBE Wawrinka, but inconsistency is his middle name, and he only peaks for one slam a year.
There's also no real reason barring injury he can't play a relatively full schedule from RG on that would see him at least take a run at #1. Let's just say he plays RG (even less wear and tear if he doesn't), but loses in, say, the 3rd round for the sake of argument. So almost zero clay court tennis. After that he'll play Halle and Wimbledon. Get the break that every top player gets after Wimbledon which is about a month. Skip Canada, play Cincy, week off, USO. If he's close after the USO he may play Shanghai, or he may not and try to do well at Basel, Paris, and the WTF. Paris is also a wild card in his schedule of course, but it all comes down to results. If he does well enough at all the events he'll play for certain he may be able to get away with skipping both Shanghai and Paris or only playing one of them (if he indeed sees an opportunity for #1 and wants to go for it).
Federer being YE #1 is a realistic goal IF he does well at Wimbledon IMO because it's important to realize that his main competitors aren't young anymore either and we'll soon be in Federer's favourite part(s) of the season.
hoodjem
G.O.A.T.
Weak era: 35-year-old makes every final. Self evident.
clayqueen
Bionic Poster
Which one of Federer and Nadal has won the American Hard Court Swing?
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal has. It doesn't change the fact that Nadal has generally performed worse than Federer in the 2nd half of the year.
Gazelle
G.O.A.T.
Amazing logic. Could only come from a rabbit Nadal fan. I suppose Roddick also did better than Fed second half of year.
clayqueen
Bionic Poster
If Federer is that good on hardcourt, why has he not managed it since he turned pro in 1998, nearly 20 years ago? At least Nadal lives up to the title King of Clay. If Rafa can win the American hardcourt swing once he can do it again and it proves that he is not that bad on hardcourt.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Nobody said he is.
But look at their title count post RG and you will see why historically Fed is more favored in the second half than Rafa.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
On American summer HC's since 2005.
2005: Federer
2006: Federer
2007: Federer
2008: Federer
2009: Federer
2010: Nadal
2011: Nadal
2012: Federer
2013: Nadal
2014: Federer
2015: Federer
2016: Nadal
By my count that's 7-4 for Federer, and if we extended it to take the entire 2nd half into account, 2011 would go to Federer by any objective measure as well.
2005: Federer
2006: Federer
2007: Federer
2008: Federer
2009: Federer
2010: Nadal
2011: Nadal
2012: Federer
2013: Nadal
2014: Federer
2015: Federer
2016: Nadal
By my count that's 7-4 for Federer, and if we extended it to take the entire 2nd half into account, 2011 would go to Federer by any objective measure as well.
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clayqueen
Bionic Poster
I'm not arguing against that I'm just pointing out that Nadal is not that weak after RG as suggested by steve 0904:
TheMusicLover
G.O.A.T.
Not that I disagree with you, but... as you know, things can change very VERY fast in tennis.
Nadal didn't make a HC final in what... how many seasons? And suddenly, this season, he's already made FOUR of them, among which a GS final. Of course, "results from the past, yada yada yada".
So, if he remains healthy, it could well be that he'll be having at least a decent post-Wimbledon HC season as well.
Mind you, I'm not saying that it WILL happen, I'm just pointing out that it's not totally unthinkable, either.
As for Wimbledon: Nadal has always been vulnerable in the earlier rounds, even in de years he ended up winning the tournament (or reaching the final). I'll be as bold as to say that if -IF - he manages to survive the hard-hitters during the first week, don't be too surprised if he'll make it to the final eventually. Even now.
I disagree with your statement "no one else is in contention", btw.
A Kyrgios, even a Raonic having a very good day, could well turn out to be the party poopers for Nadal, or even for Fed. They've done it before.
And who knows, perhaps Murray finally finds back his feet on British grass? He's the defending champ after all.
Sounds reasonable. Hopefully you'll turn out to be right.
Point is, lots of folks are acting here as if Wimby is already in the bag for Feds, whereas we, as of now, have no indication whatsoever about his form on return after his hiatus.
I'm just being cautious (I'm afraid it's a bit of a professional deformation
) and tend to be weary of too high expectations.Fully agree with you that a decent (QF or better) result at Wimbledon will be key for Fed's chances to end up as YE #1. And of course... he'll have TONS of points to pick up after Wimbledon.
I just think it's wrong to totally rule out Nadal, based on his current form. But like I said, things may change quickly.
6
6-3 6-0
Guest
He said it is his weakER (note that its relative to Federer) part of the season, not that Nadal himself is weak in 2nd half.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
I never said Rafa was bad on HC. I said Federer was better and has generally performed better in the 2nd half. Both of these are facts regardless of how much you pump up the "triple." Federer has 5 USO titles. Nadal has 2. Not really close. Federer has 7 Cincy titles. Nadal has 1. Nowhere near. Federer has 6 WTF titles, Nadal has 0. Laughable. This isn't rocket science.
Nadal could in fact win the triple again this year for all I know, but in most years the summer HCs aren't too kind to him. He's been good enough to win the triple and get 2 USO titles so he can't be completely discounted obviously, but Federer has clearly been better when all years are taken into account. That is a fact.
TheMusicLover
G.O.A.T.
Well, perhaps I interpreted your post wrongly, but I do think you were a bit too negative about Rafa's chances on HC.
Rafa did reach the final at the WTF twice, didn't he?
Still a lot depends on Roland Garros IMO.
If Nadal really is 3000 or more points in front of Federer in the race after RG, he will be very difficult to catch. That’s the case if he wins Rome and RG and Federer doesn’t reach the final at RG. And I feel Federer has to win Wimbledon then AND Nadal must have his usual first weak defeat.
However, if Federer has a better RG than Nadal (which would be an absolute dream result for him of course), then he will definitely overtake him in the 2nd half of the season.
Everything counts only if Nadal isn’t injured of course. If he only skips a few bigger tournaments, then Federer is Number One. There is no one else in the discussion.
clayqueen
Bionic Poster
I have never argued that Nadal is better than Federer on h/c all I'm saying is, no one can assume that one is going to do better on the American h/c swing than the other in any one season because Nadal has proved that he can win the most titles then even if he's only done it once. At the same time, I never assume that Nadal is going to sweep the clay season, no matter how many times he's done it, because the matches have to be played.
SLD76
G.O.A.T.
Right? Has he was even played any clay masters this season??
I feel like dude has been awol since the birth of his child
Also, have Berdych, Cillic and Monfils fallen off the face of the earth?
tennisaddict
Bionic Poster
Cilic won a 250 two weeks back beating RaoMug
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
I am saying that Federer is likely to do better than Nadal in the second half because of their respective histories on the surfaces in the 2nd half of the season. Just like I would say that Nadal is likely to do better on clay for the exact same reason. Again, this shouldn't be at all complicated.
Mazz Retic
Hall of Fame
Goat
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Well, perhaps I interpreted your post wrongly, but I do think you were a bit too negative about Rafa's chances on HC.
Rafa did reach the final at the WTF twice, didn't he?
Yes he has and we could have another 2013 on our hands. It is possible, but if we're going down this road then it's also possible that Federer finishes the year as #1. Both are about equally likely right now IMO.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Not that I disagree with you, but... as you know, things can change very VERY fast in tennis.
Nadal didn't make a HC final in what... how many seasons? And suddenly, this season, he's already made FOUR of them, among which a GS final. Of course, "results from the past, yada yada yada".
So, if he remains healthy, it could well be that he'll be having at least a decent post-Wimbledon HC season as well.
Mind you, I'm not saying that it WILL happen, I'm just pointing out that it's not totally unthinkable, either.
As for Wimbledon: Nadal has always been vulnerable in the earlier rounds, even in de years he ended up winning the tournament (or reaching the final). I'll be as bold as to say that if -IF - he manages to survive the hard-hitters during the first week, don't be too surprised if he'll make it to the final eventually. Even now.
Yes Nadal could have a good summer HC season and even a good Wimbledon if he gets past some big hitters or gets a good draw, but by that token, Federer could finish #1 as well. Sorry if it sounds like I'm preaching because I've said this twice.
I just meant that no one else is in contention to be #1. Not that they couldn't cause upsets.
Sounds reasonable. Hopefully you'll turn out to be right.
Hopefully.
Point is, lots of folks are acting here as if Wimby is already in the bag for Feds, whereas we, as of now, have no indication whatsoever about his form on return after his hiatus.
I'm just being cautious (I'm afraid it's a bit of a professional deformation
Fully agree with you that a decent (QF or better) result at Wimbledon will be key for Fed's chances to end up as YE #1. And of course... he'll have TONS of points to pick up after Wimbledon.
I just think it's wrong to totally rule out Nadal, based on his current form. But like I said, things may change quickly.
Yeah, Wimby is definitely not in the bag, but I expect him to do well being the optimist that I am. I think he'll need to do better than a QF to have a serious shot at #1 though. He'll need at least a final (and hopefully a win).
SLD76
G.O.A.T.
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