NonP
Legend
Because we haven't had a strong (men's) field on clay since the mid-aughts or so. It's easy to say Nadal is just too good even at his advanced age but that facile canard, in addition to its obvious speciousness, looks like a total load of crap when you realize RG finalists can't even manage 30% of RGW against the whole field:
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
Historically it's the 40% threshold which all but guarantees a FO that or some other season at least. Now you still need a certain amount of firepower which is why Diego despite his 40% in RGW will never be a serious FO contender, but it does speak volumes that a HCer like Thiem was being touted as the next successor to the CC throne as recently as 2019 when he has yet to crack the all-important overall 60% on dirt:
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
And what about since COVID, you ask? Given how much NextGen sux on return you shouldn't be surprised that only Novak seems capable of offering any meaningful resistance to Rafa, as you can tell from this list of non-FO champs who managed to crack the 60% mark or came reasonably close to it:
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
As you can see Sinner's 58.1% last season (if you can call 2 events a season) would be nothing to write home about in a stronger era (the earlier years are almost certainly missing several names cuz I only bothered to look at those within striking distance of 60%). And while Tsits has the #s this season - a whopping 90.7% in SGW and 31.9% in RGW for a combined 61.9% - his career SGW% stands at 84.5% and I remain skeptical that he'll be able to keep it up for a whole fortnight at RG, especially following his loss to Novak at Rome.
So we're left with 34-year-old Djoko who ain't even holding serve 80% of the time so far (76.9%, if you care). Like I said you still need a minimal level of artillery on dirt and I'm aware of no (male) player in the past 30 years who was able to go all the way at RG with such a paltry SGW%.
Having said that... Rafa is definitely vulnerable this time, with "only" 36.1% in RGW (fairly ho-hum by his ridiculous standards) and a good but unremarkable overall 59.2% which if it holds will give him his 1st under-60% season since... '04 (let that sink in for a sec). Can Nole or Stef capitalize on this and pull off the unthinkable? My $$$ is still on Rafa, but for once you wouldn't be crazy betting on someone else.
Whats your top 10 of all time now (men)
I was going to wait till they collect (near-)full info on past top players than subscribe just for a couple months and gradually copy everything to my pc for unlimited personal use. Seems like their info isn't gonna get complete any soon like this though. Tilden is honestly a disaster on TB...
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
Historically it's the 40% threshold which all but guarantees a FO that or some other season at least. Now you still need a certain amount of firepower which is why Diego despite his 40% in RGW will never be a serious FO contender, but it does speak volumes that a HCer like Thiem was being touted as the next successor to the CC throne as recently as 2019 when he has yet to crack the all-important overall 60% on dirt:
Austria Goat Muster or Thiem?
Yes you are crazy. Such is the state of the younger guys.
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
And what about since COVID, you ask? Given how much NextGen sux on return you shouldn't be surprised that only Novak seems capable of offering any meaningful resistance to Rafa, as you can tell from this list of non-FO champs who managed to crack the 60% mark or came reasonably close to it:
Comparing Murray's stats to Edberg/Becker
Courier is totally weak, I mean he even made less FO semis than Murray lol so obviously goatray is altogether greater and better and ruins the overrated mug easily even on clay let alone anywhere else. Such is the objective truth, fanboys! /lel/ Poor effort my friend. I didn't say that Murray...
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
As you can see Sinner's 58.1% last season (if you can call 2 events a season) would be nothing to write home about in a stronger era (the earlier years are almost certainly missing several names cuz I only bothered to look at those within striking distance of 60%). And while Tsits has the #s this season - a whopping 90.7% in SGW and 31.9% in RGW for a combined 61.9% - his career SGW% stands at 84.5% and I remain skeptical that he'll be able to keep it up for a whole fortnight at RG, especially following his loss to Novak at Rome.
So we're left with 34-year-old Djoko who ain't even holding serve 80% of the time so far (76.9%, if you care). Like I said you still need a minimal level of artillery on dirt and I'm aware of no (male) player in the past 30 years who was able to go all the way at RG with such a paltry SGW%.
Having said that... Rafa is definitely vulnerable this time, with "only" 36.1% in RGW (fairly ho-hum by his ridiculous standards) and a good but unremarkable overall 59.2% which if it holds will give him his 1st under-60% season since... '04 (let that sink in for a sec). Can Nole or Stef capitalize on this and pull off the unthinkable? My $$$ is still on Rafa, but for once you wouldn't be crazy betting on someone else.
