Why I believe Federer will NOT win the US Open

S

SublimeTennis

Professional
A lot is being said about Federer playing his best tennis, Fed himself even saying "I'm playing as well as I did at 24", and then Djokovich's great compliment that he's the best right now.

I, as much as I wish it were true, don't believe it will happen, I'd say about a 10% chance, and here's why. Much of Federer's praise of late is based on his great Wimbledon run, particularly against Murray, which is about the best I've seen him play, then of course he froze in the final. Then Cincinnati, where it appeared that he toyed with Murray and Djokovich back to back, easy wins really. However Cincinnati plays so much faster than US Open, and the balls are faster.

Watching a re-run of Fed/Monfils from last year, on these slower courts, Fed is forced into an aggressive baseliner, up against superior baseliners (Djokovich, Murray, etc.) he has to play their game, Djokovich and Murray have that extra time they need, and if Fed tries playing close like he did last year against Cilic, I think he'll be blown off the court again.

Again I say it's such a pity, we as fans should insist half season fast, half slow, I can't stand watching Fed staying back, getting into these 20 shot rallies, plus at his age they really take it out of him. Ever notice on highlight reels, you almost never see 20-30 shot rallies, instead you see IE a drop shot, or a great net play, or a player being drawn off the court mid court and making an incredible shot. Why? Because THAT'S exciting, I mean we all have our own taste's, some love the 30 shot after 30 shot rallies, but for me and many others slow baseline play is just physicality, concentration, and don't make errors, you don't see much strategy, rather just banging away back and forth.

So my prediction is Fed will blow through the lessor talents, and then either run into a lower ranked baseliner and lose or lose to a top ten player, what is your prediction?
 
RalphJ said:
Is there nothing positive at all around this forum. There's only the super-critics.
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I thought this forum was on an upward trajectory, positivity wise, for the last couple of weeks! Djokovic losing to Murray and Federer gave everyone a renewed hope for a better world. You have to accept, though, that with the impending USO showdown, the anxiety will return and with it the nastiness too. Everything hangs on Djokovic suffering for the sakes of all of us. Son of God and all that.
 
Yeah, you're right. It was weird Fed winning Cincy, but the USO is a bigger challenge. People get weird around these big tournaments.
 
Let me go at this with a different slant.

The players who win above 60% of all games in a year on a surface have a very good chance of winning a slam.

So far Fed has a higher % this year than in any of his three three-slam years. The difference, of course, was that no one was around like Novak. But he is red hot right now.

Bo5 is a huge ask, and it would be better if the court were faster. I think Novak is the favorite because of those factors, but Fed should do well on stats. They question, of course, is what will happen over 2 weeks. As for the draw, that can change in a flash.

Of the players who have a strong chance this year, Fed is 3rd in returning, winning 31% of all return games this year. Novak is at 33%, Murray at 34%. I don't even know if Ferrer is going to play, but he's the only top guy returning better, yet his % of serves is all the way down to 81%. Fed is 94/31 125 (winning 62-63% of all his games on HC. Novak is 88/33 121, barely above 60%, which is also quite good. So sure, someone could take it away from the top too, as Nishi and Cilic did last year, or Wawrinka at the FO, but there is no way I'd put odds of Murray winning over Fed and Novak this year - not unless his serve suddenly picks up again. He's winning 81% of his service games this year, which is the same as his average for his entire career.

That said, if Fed's percentage of games won falls down to even 90% or 89%, his career average, he won't get far in the USO.
 
Gary Duane said:
Let me go at this with a different slant.

The players who win above 60% of all games in a year on a surface have a very good chance of winning a slam.

So far Fed has a higher % this year than in any of his three three-slam years. The difference, of course, was that no one was around like Novak. But he is red hot right now.

Bo5 is a huge ask, and it would be better if the court were faster. I think Novak is the favorite because of those factors, but Fed should do well on stats. They question, of course, is what will happen over 2 weeks. As for the draw, that can change in a flash.

Of the players who have a strong chance this year, Fed is 3rd in returning, winning 31% of all return games this year. Novak is at 33%, Murray at 34%. I don't even know if Ferrer is going to play, but he's the only top guy returning better, yet his % of serves is all the way down to 81%. Fed is 94/31 125 (winning 62-63% of all his games on HC. Novak is 88/33 121, barely above 60%, which is also quite good. So sure, someone could take it away from the top too, as Nishi and Cilic did last year, or Wawrinka at the FO, but there is no way I'd put odds of Murray winning over Fed and Novak this year - not unless his serve suddenly picks up again. He's winning 81% of his service games this year, which is the same as his average for his entire career.

That said, if Fed's percentage of games won falls down to even 90% or 89%, his career average, he won't get far in the USO.
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Don't read too much into stats, the field had more depth (without being so top heavy) in Fed's 3 slam years and Fed was reaching the final of nearly every tourney, not to mention that BO3 tourneys stats aren't really that relevant as we know B05 is an Achilles heel for someone of Fed's age and mileage.

That Fed lost to Seppi at AO this year and got blew away by Cilic last year (after barely surviving Monfils) tells you more about Fed's chances at surviving a BO5 pounding on HC than stats he accumulated in few HC tourneys he played this year in different conditions and format.

Regarding Novak being the main difference, he wasn't the one that stopped Fed in any HC slam for the last 4 years (give or take). The reason Murray has a better chance (in theory, maybe not with his draw) is because he has a much better endurance than Fed and can hang with Novak (and any other player) during a long match.
 
SublimeTennis said:
A lot is being said about Federer playing his best tennis, Fed himself even saying "I'm playing as well as I did at 24", and then Djokovich's great compliment that he's the best right now.

I, as much as I wish it were true, don't believe it will happen, I'd say about a 10% chance, and here's why. Much of Federer's praise of late is based on his great Wimbledon run, particularly against Murray, which is about the best I've seen him play, then of course he froze in the final. Then Cincinnati, where it appeared that he toyed with Murray and Djokovich back to back, easy wins really. However Cincinnati plays so much faster than US Open, and the balls are faster.

Watching a re-run of Fed/Monfils from last year, on these slower courts, Fed is forced into an aggressive baseliner, up against superior baseliners (Djokovich, Murray, etc.) he has to play their game, Djokovich and Murray have that extra time they need, and if Fed tries playing close like he did last year against Cilic, I think he'll be blown off the court again.

Again I say it's such a pity, we as fans should insist half season fast, half slow, I can't stand watching Fed staying back, getting into these 20 shot rallies, plus at his age they really take it out of him. Ever notice on highlight reels, you almost never see 20-30 shot rallies, instead you see IE a drop shot, or a great net play, or a player being drawn off the court mid court and making an incredible shot. Why? Because THAT'S exciting, I mean we all have our own taste's, some love the 30 shot after 30 shot rallies, but for me and many others slow baseline play is just physicality, concentration, and don't make errors, you don't see much strategy, rather just banging away back and forth.

So my prediction is Fed will blow through the lessor talents, and then either run into a lower ranked baseliner and lose or lose to a top ten player, what is your prediction?
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This isn't really a radical prediction. It would have been much more interesting for you to make a heartfelt case as to why Rodge could seriously pull off #18.
Still, I applaud your honesty.
 
Djokovic is the clear favorite. After him, I think everyone else has just as much or less chances compared to Federer. Put in perspective, that is a significant chance. That's why I think Federer cannot be rule out completely.
 
Fedfan34 said:
This isn't really a radical prediction. It would have been much more interesting for you to make a heartfelt case as to why Rodge could seriously pull off #18.
Still, I applaud your honesty.
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Sorry for not doing a better job for you, just watching Fed vs Monfils, it is so different than Cincinnati, so much time.

I didn't make a case about #18, although it would be awesome, the "Talk" if you will is Fed taking it, so I assumed there already is enough talk. It's just remarkable to me if the courts were as fast as say Cincy Fed would be overwhelming favorite, after all of these years. Likewise if we were on clay we would be talking Nadal or Djokovich.

OK, one more prediction, Nadal wins maximum 3 matches! These are useless I know but fun.
 
chjtennis said:
Djokovic is the clear favorite. After him, I think everyone else has just as much or less chances compared to Federer. Put in perspective, that is a significant chance. That's why I think Federer cannot be rule out completely.
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Yes, there are things that happen, like last year what if Cilic injured himself? I think Fed would have a rather easy time, or at least would be favored and take out Nishikori. It's those "Openings", if the situation presents itself, like Wawrinka against a hurt Nadal that are available once in awhile. If Djokovich gets knocked out, I do think Fed has a decent chance at #18, I think he can get Murray even on this surface.
 
SQA333 said:
We all knew this, whether or not Fed won Cincinnati or lost in the opening round.

If he were to win the Open, it will honestly be as much of a surprise as Nishikori making the final last year.
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I don't know about that, Fed is on another level than Nishikori, Nishikori plays well, but Fed has everything, that experience is huge, being down two match points then playing risky tennis, the guy is insanely great, if he CAN move in on that second serve, take time away CONSISTANTELY, that will be enough over 5 sets against a Djokovich, we'll see, very exciting.
 
RalphJ said:
Is there nothing positive at all around this forum. There's only the super-critics and negative-obvious-fortune-tellers
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Nothing negative man, just trying to be realistic and predictions are fun. Look I'd LOVE, most people would LOVE Fed getting #18, I just think it's such a pity they don't have half season real fast courts, it was so sad watching Fed get into these 15 shot rallies with Monfils, he's going to have to do this against superior baseliners to win.
 
zagor said:
Don't read too much into stats, the field had more depth (without being so top heavy) in Fed's 3 slam years and Fed was reaching the final of nearly every tourney, not to mention that BO3 tourneys stats aren't really that relevant as we know B05 is an Achilles heel for someone of Fed's age and mileage.
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The field did not have more depth in Fed's three three-slam years. During those years he had no one to challenge him on HCs and grass. Tennis has rarely had two players like Fed and Novak going H2H on two surfaces this year. In Fed's dominant years he had no one to challenge him on any surface other than clay, and Nadal was an absolute master on that surface.
That Fed lost to Seppi at AO this year and got blew away by Cilic last year (after barely surviving Monfils) tells you more about Fed's chances at surviving a BO5 pounding on HC than stats he accumulated in few HC tourneys he played this year in different conditions and format.
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The fact that Novak ultimately lost both the AO to Wawrinka and then to Cilic in the USO in 2014 tells you that we are in a time that was very much like the late 90s and early 2000s, when anyone could win any slam.

Fed and Novak are far and away the best HC players of 2015, but there are a lot of young players who are threatening. It is inevitable that when the great top players of the past decade are aging there are going to by upsets before younger players take over and push the old players out of the running. This has always happened in the past. It is just a matter of time.

Regarding Novak being the main difference, he wasn't the one that stopped Fed in any HC slam for the last 4 years (give or take). The reason Murray has a better chance (in theory, maybe not with his draw) is because he has a much better endurance than Fed and can hang with Novak (and any other player) during a long match.
 
The reason Federer won't probably win the tournament is Djokovic having basically no-one who can take him out before the final. Fed is still good but he can't win a 4-hour final against Djokovic at this stage of his career.
 
Having Murray and Wawrinka on other side of the draw has massively increased Djokovic's chances on winning the title. This is almost a dream draw for Novak, he gets to avenge his 2013 loss to Rafa, and then possibly Ferrer or out of form Kei in the semis. All the big severs such as Isner, Karlovic also on the other side of the draw. So, I honestly feel Djokovic has a very good chance to getting to the final with plenty in the tank, while it is highly likely that Federer will have a blood bath in the semis at least with one of Stan or Andy there.
 
Fed needs help from someone on the other side to take Novak. happened last year, so there is a chance for Fed, though very remote.

At this stage, I will be happy with another final if it is against Novak.
 
Gary Duane said:
The field did not have more depth in Fed's three three-slam years.
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It absolutely did, today it's 2-3 guys (that are great) and a barren wasteland after them (the oldest top 10 ever, it's embarrassing). in 2004-2007 there were plenty of good to very good players that could take out anyone on a good day and up and coming promising young guns, that's depth.

A field can be top heavy but have little depth, the opposite or any other combination.

Gary Duane said:
During those years he had no one to challenge him on HCs and grass.
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That's like saying there was no one to challenge Novak at AO for the last 5 years or Nadal for the last 10 years at FO. Just because Fed won a lot, doesn't mean there were no challengers and the tour wasn't deep, the tennis he displayed in that 4 year period was one of the highest in the Open Era at the very least.

Gary Duane said:
Tennis has rarely had two players like Fed and Novak going H2H on two surfaces this year.
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They have only been going at it on grass, they haven't met in HC slams since 2011. Also throughout tennis history you had plenty of cases of an all-time great in his twilight years playing on big stages against a younger ATG rival, this isn't a new scenario at all (last time we had it was in 2004-2005 with old Agassi and peaking Fed).

What is rare, is two such caliber of players being at their peak at the same time which certainly isn't the case here, Fed's best tennis especially when it comes to BO5 format is long gone.

Gary Duane said:
In Fed's dominant years he had no one to challenge him on any surface other than clay, and Nadal was an absolute master on that surface.
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Nadal reached two Wimbledon finals in a row in 2006 and 2007, for the last 4 years he can't reach 2nd week, you tell me which Nadal was more challenging on grass.

Also, top players beside Fed in 2004-2007 were very comparable to 34 year old Fed, the one that lost to Seppi at AO and hasn't reached a USO final in 6 years. I can guarantee you a bunch of them would prefer facing this Fed over the monster they faced in 2004-2005.

Gary Duane said:
The fact that Novak ultimately lost both the AO to Wawrinka and then to Cilic in the USO in 2014 tells you that we are in a time that was very much like the late 90s and early 2000s, when anyone could win any slam.
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Or that tells me Novak isn't as dominant as Fed was at his peak, I don't see either Stan or Cilic winning any slams in 2004-2007 (aside from 2004 FO potentially for Stan).

Gary Duane said:
Fed and Novak are far and away the best HC players of 2015.
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Fed lost in the 3nd rond at AO to a journeyman, he's not far and away best on HC this year. He's merely still great in BO3 format on a fast surface which is a set of very specific circumstances irrelevant in the larger scheme of things (slams).
 
You only have to look at Federer's recent efforts in best of 5 on HC to see that his chances of winning the USO are slim - no final since 2009, only one SF in the last 3 tries and a loss to Seppi at the AO. Over 2 sets he can play very good tennis still but beyond that it's a bit of Russian Roulette.
 
NatF said:
You only have to look at Federer's recent efforts in best of 5 on HC to see that his chances of winning the USO are slim - no final since 2009, only one SF in the last 3 tries and a loss to Seppi at the AO. Over 2 sets he can play very good tennis still but beyond that it's a bit of Russian Roulette.
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Well lets not be too hard on him 10, and 11 he had decent showings also, both times he had two MPs. But since 2011, he hasn't really looked too impressive.
 
NatF said:
You only have to look at Federer's recent efforts in best of 5 on HC to see that his chances of winning the USO are slim - no final since 2009, only one SF in the last 3 tries and a loss to Seppi at the AO. Over 2 sets he can play very good tennis still but beyond that it's a bit of Russian Roulette.
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Indeed, It's amazing how much people are desperate to prove Fed's playing better than ever in his 30s. Do they honestly think that a 17 slam winner who won 5 USOs in a row would fail to reach USO final for 6 straight years while playing his best tennis ever? That Fed is the only ATG in tennis history that dominated in his early 20s but is playing better than ever at 34?

He's still great despite his age, he's still a worthy opponent/scalp for a dominant #1 player, just like Agassi was in 2004-2005. Is he playing his best ever? No, neither did Agassi.
 
Djokovic is the clear favorite. If there were any doubts the draw has made it clear. In the USO upset is easier. Fed has 50% chance making SF. If he makes the final he absolutely needs to win the first set.
 
zagor said:
Indeed, It's amazing how much people are desperate to prove Fed's playing better than ever in his 30s. Do they honestly think that a 17 slam winner who won 5 USOs in a row would fail to reach USO final for 6 straight years while playing his best tennis ever? That Fed is the only ATG in tennis history that dominated in his early 20s but is playing better than ever at 34?

He's still great despite his age, he's still a worthy opponent/scalp for a dominant #1 player, just like Agassi was in 2004-2005. Is he playing his best ever? No, neither did Agassi.
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I believe it is just dishonesty on the parts of certain posters. The likes of Seppi and even Cilic (who was excellent last year) would not be beating prime Federer. Sampras claimed he was playing his best tennis in his 30's as well. Unfortunately it is in the interests of many to prop up the current players. Federer is surely a very good player still - but for a guy with 17 slams very good is just the tip of the iceberg really.

Hitman said:
Well lets not be too hard on him 10, and 11 he had decent showings also, both times he had two MPs. But since 2011, he hasn't really looked too impressive.
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Yes, in 2011 he had a good shot without Djokovic IMO. But since then he hasn't been impressive. I expect a SF appearance and maybe even a final as I think he can still beat Murray in BO5 on HC. Djokovic is a different beast.
 
Don't underestimate Murray.

Federer played strategic tennis against Djokovic in Cinci, but USO court is much slower, and doesn't suit the game he is playing now. He would have to serve like Cilic to win it. A bit hard to do.

Murray or Djokovic will take it. Unless Nadal pulls an upset. If he meets Djoko amnd beats him, then he will take it.

Personally want Djoko to win it, so he can claim double digit slam.
 
NatF said:
I believe it is just dishonesty on the parts of certain posters. The likes of Seppi and even Cilic (who was excellent last year) would not be beating prime Federer. Sampras claimed he was playing his best tennis in his 30's as well. Unfortunately it is in the interests of many to prop up the current players. Federer is surely a very good player still - but for a guy with 17 slams very good is just the tip of the iceberg really.
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And mind you, in no way do I think prime Fed would be a sure bet to win any slam/big title this year but he was playing better in those days and would be a significantly bigger contender for slams than he is now (just like current and 2011 Novak would have been in say 2007).

I'm talking about better chances here, not prime Fed is untouchable/would annihilate everyone stuff.
 
zagor said:
And mind you, in no way do I think prime Fed would be a sure bet to win any slam/big title this year but he was playing better in those days and would be a significantly bigger contender for slams than he is now.

I'm talking about better chances here not prime Fed is untouchable/would annihilate everyone stuff.
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Yeah, I wouldn't like to say Federer would definitely win such and such title. But I feel Federer would be a heavy favorite at Wimbledon and the USO this year in his prime.
 
US Open is different than Cincy. IMO it has higher bounce, and it is best-of-5. Both does not suit Federer. The fact he has not been in a hard court Slam final since 2010 Australian Open, losing to likes of Seppi, Berdych, Robredo and Cilic, is also against him.
I can see Novak in the final clearly, but his 1-4 final record there worries a bit.
 
No one believes that Federer will win the US Open, which is why I'll be so ecstatic if he pulls it off. Underdogs. I don't remember liking Federer this much 8-10 years ago, but now that he's older and is has little chance most of the time, I find myself rooting for him more and more. Makes me wish there were more courts like in Cincinnati, so he'd stick around and we could watch him play longer...
 
On paper, Federer has a good chance of winning, but when you look at the reality, it's a different story. USO is on the slower side for a hard court and best of 5 doesn't do any favor to a 34 year old player. Historically speaking, weather is far from certain at this time of the year in NY, so there's strong odds that matches will have to be rescheduled or played in consecutive days which also doesn't do him any favor, especially if he gets carried away in a 5 setter. Since Federer is a "main eventer", he'll probably play night matches most of the time, which sometimes end late. So for all these reasons, I think it's very unlikely he'll pull it off. If the weather/scheduling is good, doesn't drop a set until the final and his portion of the draw clears out, then who knows, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.
 
Novak would slip and fall in this US Open.
My wishes are with him.

Stan-The-Man would bang his and 6 other behinds for the title.
 
Hitman said:
Having Murray and Wawrinka on other side of the draw has massively increased Djokovic's chances on winning the title. This is almost a dream draw for Novak, he gets to avenge his 2013 loss to Rafa, and then possibly Ferrer or out of form Kei in the semis. All the big severs such as Isner, Karlovic also on the other side of the draw. So, I honestly feel Djokovic has a very good chance to getting to the final with plenty in the tank, while it is highly likely that Federer will have a blood bath in the semis at least with one of Stan or Andy there.
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He was always going to be favorite regardless. You have a guy who is the favorite to make the finals (judging by his outstanding record this year), and just by being in finals he puts himself in a great spot with a shot at title.
You can argue who would win in final with x player over y, but i dont think anyone would argue with novak not making final at any given event.
 
I'd say about a 10% chance, and here's why.
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You're merely stating the obvious. Nobody thinks Fed has a greater chance than that, especially since the draw was unveiled. There's a reason 34 year olds win slams once every 20 or 30 years. For Fed to win any major at this stage would be historic and almost unbelievable.
 
If anyone can, arguably best player of all times, can.
So i wouldnt call it unbelievable.
 
The only person I trust their opinion about Federer's condition is himself. He is usually spot on and honest about his condition. When he says he's feeling great and ready, he doesn't dissapoint. If he says he feels like 24, he can play like 24 year old Federer.
 
When things are going his way, he will dominate. But when they are not, he will not be able to find a way out. His game does not have a built-in margin of error.
 
Clever assesment, and very true. We also thought that Roger did well in Cincy last years and was most likely to make a great run at USO, well, certainly better than Cilic WHO won.
Roger has med many stronger baseliner than himself, Nalbandian, Safin, Berdych, Tsonga, Gulbis, Cilic f.eks, when these players hit the day they can beat Roger. Roger has a high consistent level, and sometimes in "god mode" But i wouldn´t exclute that some of the afforementioned has a slightly higher top level, because of their superior strengh reach and pace. Roger has the variety and the experience to his advantage, Roger at best is almost unbeatabe on the fastest Courts, where he can halfvolley and use the flat slice. But if he can´t take time away from the opponent by his lightning quick movement and constant taking the ball on the rise it´s going to be a really tough one, but i don´t see it as impossible as he´s playing better this year up to USO
 
Honestly for me there is only one determining factor whether Federer will win slams or any match. It's the serve. It's his biggest and quite possibly only unrelenting weapon right now. If it works consistently for two weeks then he'll take it. 2008 Federer was able to crush the ball and bludgeon people off the ground. His ground game isn't as explosive or powerful anymore. So he needs the serve to set things up and that confidence will enable him to play riskier return games which will pay off. So it's all about the serve. If his serve is on fire then he's going to win. Problem is his game is so inconsistent these days. Wimby semis against Murray, the serve was on fire and then couple days later it dropped significantly against Novak. In Cincy he was able to maintain form throughout. He needs the serve.
 
If he can´ t take time away from his opponent by his constant taking the ball on the rise and with his lightning quick movement come into net, he need to be at his absolut bet, it´s interresting. I thought last year in FO, before he ran into Gulbis, and i also saw it against Djokovic i think in the first couple of game in Cincy this year, he tried to Work the angles more and remain in great positioning by being cautious when to come in, he needs to try to Work the angles more and play closer to the lines than he can get away with not doing as much at the fastest Courts, he needs to dropvolley, as he does better now than some years ago, serve and volley ok frequently, else blast away with his shots a bit like he did against Querry in WImby, the last games he had enough pace in his shot to slug with some of the bigger hitters i think, he can´t do it all the time, but he needs to Work those strategies out some more i think..
 
RF20Lennon said:
Honestly for me there is only one determining factor whether Federer will win slams or any match. It's the serve. It's his biggest and quite possibly only unrelenting weapon right now. If it works consistently for two weeks then he'll take it. 2008 Federer was able to crush the ball and bludgeon people off the ground. His ground game isn't as explosive or powerful anymore. So he needs the serve to set things up and that confidence will enable him to play riskier return games which will pay off. So it's all about the serve. If his serve is on fire then he's going to win. Problem is his game is so inconsistent these days. Wimby semis against Murray, the serve was on fire and then couple days later it dropped significantly against Novak. In Cincy he was able to maintain form throughout. He needs the serve.
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Even if Federer's serve is firing on all cylinders, it seems a bit of a stretch to say that he'll win the tournament. That serve won't have as big an impact at the USO as it does on the faster surfaces, especially not in best of 5.
 
Djokovic2011 said:
Even if Federer's serve is firing on all cylinders, it seems a bit of a stretch to say that he'll win the tournament. That serve won't have as big an impact at the USO as it does on the faster surfaces, especially not in best of 5.
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I agree, but the serve propels him to be more aggressive and finish points off quickly. It's not just about aces, its about setting up quick points and getting ahead. If the serve is on fire and the ground game is decent enough there is no reason why he couldn't win.
 
RF20Lennon said:
I agree, but the serve propels him to be more aggressive and finish points off quickly. It's not just about aces, its about setting up quick points and getting ahead. If the serve is on fire and the ground game is decent enough there is no reason why he couldn't win.
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Well no one can accuse you of not having a positive attitude! :)
 
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