Why I pick Federer to win Wimbledon

[SublimeTennis]

OK, call me crazy, perhaps I am. I freely admit that I am biased, so consider that before you slam me!

First, even though Wimbledon is VERY SLOW, there is an art to playing on grass, and players don't have a lot of time to adjust. Federer is a master mover on grass, understands the bounces, how to play it, there are many variables. For example now it's faster as the grass is thicker and more moist, but the grass gets thicker and drier as the tourney goes on. In short Fed knows how to win here. Lastly he must be the most determined to win as he knows this could be his last chance.

His threats;

Djokovich: When Djoker is allowed to stay back and dictate play, he is unbeatable. However when someone takes him out of his rythmn he falls apart. Whenever Fed meets Djoker on a fast surface, it's no contest, Dubai, Cincinnati, Wimbledon in '12 Fed almost played with the great Djokovich. Feds attacking style completely befuddles Djokovich.

Nadal: Although he probably threw his match at Halle to rest, Nadal doesn't seem to be "On". I understand you can't say he's not on because he lost one set, that's not what I mean, I mean just his playing in general doesn't mean to be there. If he gets into a groove and the courts start slowing down (He has a hard time early as the courts are too fast for his style of play), then of course he'll be a threat.

Murray: Murray IMO has the best chance. His game and especially movement is perfectly suited to grass. Murrays problem is in between his ears. He's always had mental hang ups that have held him back, and winning back to back Wimbledon's I'm certain is messing with his mind. On the other hand much pressure is off him. But I think Murray has the best chance of the "Big 4".

Outside chance:

Grigor Dimitrov; Grass is his best surface as he's a shot maker. He has confidence in that he just won can't remember the grass court tourney. He has beaten Djokovich, so is this where he breaks through? Saw a great interview with Pat Cash who thinks he can definitely win it this year.

Just one guys "Analysis", would be interested in hearing yours, Wimbledon is my favorite time of the year.

 

[Mayonnaise]

I think Federer has a good chance against either Djokovic or Murray or anyone in the final. He just needs to get out of his half (either through Nadal, or have Nadal be upset).

 

[Chico]

...
Djokovich: When Djoker is allowed to stay back and dictate play, he is unbeatable. However when someone takes him out of his rythmn he falls apart. Whenever Fed meets Djoker on a fast surface, it's no contest, Dubai, Cincinnati, Wimbledon in '12 Fed almost played with the great Djokovich. Feds attacking style completely befuddles Djokovich.
...

Not true. Djokovic did beat Federer on fast surfaces many times (including but not limited to Dubai itself, Basel, USO, Paris, WTF, ...). Djokovic also plays attacking style and can, most of the time, counter anything Federer throws at him (since 2011).

 

[TMF]

Not true. Djokovic did beat Federer on fast surfaces many times (including but not limited to Dubai itself, Basel, USO, Paris, WTF, ...). Djokovic also plays attacking style and can, most of the time, counter anything Federer throws at him (since 2011).

Nole struggled against Stepanek today. The match could have pushed to a final 5th set had Nole lost the 4th set tie-breaker.

 

[SublimeTennis]

I think Federer has a good chance against either Djokovic or Murray or anyone in the final. He just needs to get out of his half (either through Nadal, or have Nadal be upset).

Does anyone have a link to the draw? Driving me crazy, normally I find things like that, can't find it anywhere.

 

[Mayonnaise]

Does anyone have a link to the draw? Driving me crazy, normally I find things like that, can't find it anywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Wimbledon_Championships_–_Men%27s_Singles#Finals

 

[Chico]

Does anyone have a link to the draw? Driving me crazy, normally I find things like that, can't find it anywhere.

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/index.html

 

[Chico]

Nole struggled against Stepanek today. The match could have pushed to a final 5th set had Nole lost the 4th set tie-breaker.

The match could have also been finished in 3 had Nole won 3rd set TB.
Anyway it is irrelevant to this discussion.

Novak also barely beat Stepanek in 2nd round in USO 2007 (5th set TB) and went all to the final, which he would have won if it was not his rookie slam final and he badly choked all those set points in 1st and 2nd sets.

 

[SublimeTennis]

Not true. Djokovic did beat Federer on fast surfaces many times (including but not limited to Dubai itself, Basel, USO, Paris, WTF, ...). Djokovic also plays attacking style and can, most of the time, counter anything Federer throws at him (since 2011).

I think you are partially right, I just looked it up and read their history. It goes more like this; Djokovich holds a huge advantage on slow courts, and Federer evens it up on faster courts, even Djokovich admits as much;

"Yesterday Djokovic said the slower courts favor his steadier, more defensive-oriented style, and he’s probably right—he won their only meeting at Indian Wells, in the 2011 semifinals, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2".

Remember, I say "Faster Courts", not "Fast Courts", fast courts are long gone. At Wimbledon today, the courts are as slow as RG was in the 90's, and Federer, a natural fast court serve and volleyer has to adapt and has, but still holds an advantage on grass, again not because it's fast, it's not, but because of all of the ingredients that go into grass, the bounce, the movement, the speed, etc. Fed is a master on grass if there ever was one, so he most certainly holds an advantage over Djokovich, but factor in Fed's shot nervous system and it's even with a slight edge going to Federer.

 

[sbengte]

Are you willing to bet money on it, OP ? Fed has done nothing in the last 6 months to indicate that he has it in him to beat at least 2-3 of the top 8 and take the title. The surface doesn't really matter now given his overall decline in movement, speed and mentality. Maybe he has some chance taking out Djok or Murray if he is playing exceptionally well but he isn't beating Nadal on any surface in a best of 5 at this stage and I don't see Nadal getting upset before the semi with his draw. If Fed makes the semi (which is a big IF), he is losing it, simple as that.

 

[SublimeTennis]

Are you willing to bet money on it, OP ? Fed has done nothing in the last 6 months to indicate that he has it in him to beat at least 2-3 of the top 8 and take the title. The surface doesn't really matter now given his overall decline in movement, speed and mentality. Maybe he has some chance taking out Djok or Murray if he is playing exceptionally well but he isn't beating Nadal on any surface in a best of 5 at this stage and I don't see Nadal getting upset before the semi with his draw. If Fed makes the semi (which is a big IF), he is losing it, simple as that.

Would I bet money? No way! I think Fed has declined way too much, he's way too erratic, well he was through in '08 really.

If you actually read my post, it says "I'm biased". I can see it, but only under extreme circumstances. I can't see him for example get by a combo of Nadal/Murray or Murray/Djokovich, not at this stage. But if those guys are taken out, I mean it was only two years ago he won the whole thing, took out Djokovich and Murray, we'll see, this is big to me, probably his last chance.

I think Fed will continue until he's out of the top ten, must be very hard to say "Let's see, if I keep playing I'll lose respect but make $50 Million, or I can retire and maintain respect".

 

[Micheal Federer]

OK, call me crazy, perhaps I am. I freely admit that I am biased, so consider that before you slam me!

First, even though Wimbledon is VERY SLOW, there is an art to playing on grass, and players don't have a lot of time to adjust. Federer is a master mover on grass, understands the bounces, how to play it, there are many variables. For example now it's faster as the grass is thicker and more moist, but the grass gets thicker and drier as the tourney goes on. In short Fed knows how to win here. Lastly he must be the most determined to win as he knows this could be his last chance.

His threats;

Djokovich: When Djoker is allowed to stay back and dictate play, he is unbeatable. However when someone takes him out of his rythmn he falls apart. Whenever Fed meets Djoker on a fast surface, it's no contest, Dubai, Cincinnati, Wimbledon in '12 Fed almost played with the great Djokovich. Feds attacking style completely befuddles Djokovich.

Nadal: Although he probably threw his match at Halle to rest, Nadal doesn't seem to be "On". I understand you can't say he's not on because he lost one set, that's not what I mean, I mean just his playing in general doesn't mean to be there. If he gets into a groove and the courts start slowing down (He has a hard time early as the courts are too fast for his style of play), then of course he'll be a threat.

Murray: Murray IMO has the best chance. His game and especially movement is perfectly suited to grass. Murrays problem is in between his ears. He's always had mental hang ups that have held him back, and winning back to back Wimbledon's I'm certain is messing with his mind. On the other hand much pressure is off him. But I think Murray has the best chance of the "Big 4".

Outside chance:

Grigor Dimitrov; Grass is his best surface as he's a shot maker. He has confidence in that he just won can't remember the grass court tourney. He has beaten Djokovich, so is this where he breaks through? Saw a great interview with Pat Cash who thinks he can definitely win it this year.

Just one guys "Analysis", would be interested in hearing yours, Wimbledon is my favorite time of the year.

you are right. Fed to win wimbledon.

 

[SublimeTennis]

you are right. Fed to win wimbledon.

We can dream can't we? This is the best time of the year, 2012 Wimby final was the greatest match I ever saw, not because of the quality, just sitting there with my son him watching this legend winning when he was supposed to be long through.

The greats die hard!

 

[helloworld]

Fed has a slim chance, but he has to avoid Nadal at all costs. If he faces Nadal, it's game over.

 

[cc0509]

Not true. Djokovic did beat Federer on fast surfaces many times (including but not limited to Dubai itself, Basel, USO, Paris, WTF, ...). Djokovic also plays attacking style and can, most of the time, counter anything Federer throws at him (since 2011).

But since Djokovic's unreal year in 2011, Djokovic and Federer are 1-1 in slams. IF Djokovic meets Federer in the final of Wimbledon I like Federer's chances on grass. But don't worry because I have a feeling Federer won't get by Nadal in the SF's.

 

[Noleberic123]

But since Djokovic's unreal year in 2011, Djokovic and Federer are 1-1 in slams. IF Djokovic meets Federer in the final of Wimbledon I like Federer's chances on grass. But don't worry because I have a feeling Federer won't get by Nadal in the SF's.

but there is also a chance of nadal not reaching the semis. He can easily lose on the 1st week grass

 

[cc0509]

but there is also a chance of nadal not reaching the semis. He can easily lose on the 1st week grass

True. We will have to see what happens.

 

[FreeBird]

. Whenever Fed meets Djoker on a fast surface, it's no contest, Dubai, Cincinnati, Wimbledon in '12 Fed almost played with the great Djokovich. Feds attacking style completely befuddles Djokovich.
.

I agree with Chico here.

 

[Noleberic123]

OK, call me crazy, perhaps I am. I freely admit that I am biased, so consider that before you slam me!

First, even though Wimbledon is VERY SLOW, there is an art to playing on grass, and players don't have a lot of time to adjust. Federer is a master mover on grass, understands the bounces, how to play it, there are many variables. For example now it's faster as the grass is thicker and more moist, but the grass gets thicker and drier as the tourney goes on. In short Fed knows how to win here. Lastly he must be the most determined to win as he knows this could be his last chance.

His threats;

Djokovich: When Djoker is allowed to stay back and dictate play, he is unbeatable. However when someone takes him out of his rythmn he falls apart. Whenever Fed meets Djoker on a fast surface, it's no contest, Dubai, Cincinnati, Wimbledon in '12 Fed almost played with the great Djokovich. Feds attacking style completely befuddles Djokovich.

Nadal: Although he probably threw his match at Halle to rest, Nadal doesn't seem to be "On". I understand you can't say he's not on because he lost one set, that's not what I mean, I mean just his playing in general doesn't mean to be there. If he gets into a groove and the courts start slowing down (He has a hard time early as the courts are too fast for his style of play), then of course he'll be a threat.

Murray: Murray IMO has the best chance. His game and especially movement is perfectly suited to grass. Murrays problem is in between his ears. He's always had mental hang ups that have held him back, and winning back to back Wimbledon's I'm certain is messing with his mind. On the other hand much pressure is off him. But I think Murray has the best chance of the "Big 4".

Outside chance:

Grigor Dimitrov; Grass is his best surface as he's a shot maker. He has confidence in that he just won can't remember the grass court tourney. He has beaten Djokovich, so is this where he breaks through? Saw a great interview with Pat Cash who thinks he can definitely win it this year.

Just one guys "Analysis", would be interested in hearing yours, Wimbledon is my favorite time of the year.

but what you haven't mentioned is all the times nole beat fed on fast surfaces.

 

[SublimeTennis]

but what you haven't mentioned is all the times nole beat fed on fast surfaces.

I didn't explain well. I'm saying on slow surfaces it's Nole, no question. However on fast courts Fed is the favorite, that doesn't mean the Novak hasn't beat him, never said that, I'm saying, specifically in regards to Wimbledon, and Wimbledon is slow now, but faster than others, that Fed HAS A GOOD CHANCE, MUCH MORE THAN SAY RG.

 

[dr325i]

Nole struggled against Stepanek today. The match could have pushed to a final 5th set had Nole lost the 4th set tie-breaker.

Nole also could/should have finished it in 3. He played 70% of max against Stepanek, plus, this is pretty Radek's best surface