Why people underestimate Federer's chances at RG so much?

#1
I mean, for sure he is not the favourite, but i see tons of people claiming that a second week appearance will be an achievement for him, not to mention winning the title.
After 3 years break, he is 4 -1 up, with some brilliant clay court tennis against thiem in madrid, a match he should have won. Also, for most times from '05 to '11 he wasn't far behind rafa, except for 2008 french final.
People tend to think that Fed is a bad clay courter, but actually he is (or was, at least, till 2012) a fantastic clay court player. Being in 4 consecutive french finals, winning one against a top clay courter at his best, and taking set from peak nadal in 4 out of their 5 meetings there. So yes, he came back from 3 years break, and the years before that were pure trash, but he is still RF, and in the 5 matches he played this year on clay, he looked very good most of the time, so why people so underestimate his chances?
 
#5
No one is disputing prime Federer being a fantastic clay courter. Some on this board would even rate him top 5 open era (a little high IMO). The point is, what is he like now? He's older, and clay is the most physically demanding surface. His main weapon, his serve, is less effective on clay. Baseline game becomes even more important and Federer's is not what it used to be.

His last 3 appearances at RG are QF, 4R and QF. Given he's even weaker on the surface now, I don't expect we'll see an improvement. Furthermore, his last 3 slam results are QF, 4R and 4R, all of which being slams in which he usually performs better than at RG.

Turning to the current clay season, he's exited in the QF of both masters. He's only lost 1 match, against a good player. But of the 4 he won, he was match point down in 2 of them. Hardly the sort of performances we're used to seeing from Fed on hard court or grass. And Bo5 is even more physically demanding, which seems to be Fed's problem. Add to that that he's now sustained an injury, albeit a minor one, and the likelihood of winning RG looks slim.

I'm expecting a 4R or QF. A SF would definitely be an excellent result given the circumstances. Anything beyond that would be nigh on impossible given he'd likely have to beat one of Thiem, Djokovic or Nadal to get there.
 
#8
i mean he himself said that he would be happy to make it the second week. i dont think its underestimating him, i think it is being realistic, or perhaps in some cases downplaying his chances. while yes he has had decent success in the past on clay and even at age 37 can put together a good performance, it still is his worst surface, is far more physically demanding. I think a lot will depend on the draw and for fed to make sure he doesn't end up in really long rallies.

i don't think anyone has ever said fed is bad clay court player. he's ofcourse a decent clay court player. in fact many alluded to him being the second best for a long time just behind rafa and that he could have had multiple rgs. personally i think his natural game wasn't originally suited for clay, but he's comfortable enough on the surface since he grew up playing on it, can adapt and was just overall a really good player that he could do some damage on the surface. it also doesnt hurt that in general clay competiton isn't the strongest.
 
#20
Because he'll need the stars to align for him to actually win the entire thing. QF or SF showing? Sure I don't think it'll surprise people if he did it, but winning the tournament is different from reaching the latter stages of a slam. He couldn't do it in 13 and 15 with a soft draw. This week also shows that he can easily be derailed with things out of his control: rain delay, nasty slip, you name it.
 
#21
Because he'll need the stars to align for him to actually win the entire thing. QF or SF showing? Sure I don't think it'll surprise people if he did it, but winning the tournament is different from reaching the latter stages of a slam. He couldn't do it in 13 and 15 with a soft draw. This week also shows that he can easily be derailed with things out of his control: rain delay, nasty slip, you name it.
i say the good thing is with slams, you are not, for the most part, competing with top tier players until usually second week and you usually have a full day of recovery. atleast in 2015 he lost to the eventual winner. i agree though I'm not expecting much.
 
#22
I mean, for sure he is not the favourite, but i see tons of people claiming that a second week appearance will be an achievement for him, not to mention winning the title.
After 3 years break, he is 4 -1 up, with some brilliant clay court tennis against thiem in madrid, a match he should have won. Also, for most times from '05 to '11 he wasn't far behind rafa, except for 2008 french final.
People tend to think that Fed is a bad clay courter, but actually he is (or was, at least, till 2012) a fantastic clay court player. Being in 4 consecutive french finals, winning one against a top clay courter at his best, and taking set from peak nadal in 4 out of their 5 meetings there. So yes, he came back from 3 years break, and the years before that were pure trash, but he is still RF, and in the 5 matches he played this year on clay, he looked very good most of the time, so why people so underestimate his chances?
Seeds 1-4 are supposed to play seeds 13-16 in R16. Roger will have to play one of these: Khachanov, Medvedev, Monfils, Coric. So there is fifty percent chances that he can play a player with whom he saved match points recently. Both Monfils and Coric can grind forever. Think how it's going to affect him in the next match, if he survives that.

And there could be a case where Roger struggles and win in a previous round too.

I think he will make a QF with a best case scenario of SF
 
#28
Rafa, Novak and Thiem could drop dead at this moment, and I still won't be confident of Federer reaching even the semis, let alone the final. Bad days are more prevalent with age and on clay his weaknesses are magnified while the strengths don't seem to help him much. Expect him to reach the quarters, would be pleased with anything more if presented.
 
#29
Rafa is back, Djokovic is still doing his thing, there is no way Fed can get to the final if you have seen these guys play in Rome.

But that is okay too. This has been a fun clay season for a Fed fan, but it will still end with Nadal winning the French.
 
#30
Also, for most times from '05 to '11 he wasn't far behind rafa, except for 2008 french final.
2005-2011 is a LONG time ago. You do realize there is a huge different between late 20s and late 30s, no? Especialy on clay, which is not the surface of the old, as we see by even the clay GOAT getting his ass handed to him repeatedly at age 32 all season. Yes Federer was once a fanatistic clay player, today he is still a pretty good one, maybe a very good one on the right days with off days more prevalant than ever. His prime on the surface is eons ago. Nadal's prime on clay is also long past, but unlike Fed he was so dominant to begin with, and even he probably will have a hard time winning RG this year, particularly if Djokovic is there at the end.

I dont think he is being underrated. Many bookies have him 4th favorite behind Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem. Where do you think they should have him exactly, this is the highest he possibly should be. He is higher than Zverev who has won clay Masters in the last couple years, and was a quarter finalist at RG last year. Higher than 2015 champion and 2017 finalists Wawrinka, who has won 2 of his last 3 clay matches with Federer. So it seems he is rated just fine, some have him 5th behind Tsitipas which is the lowest anyone has him. And given his last couple tournaments and Fed's injury it makes sense Tsitipas is creeping past him in some of the bookies, but still nobody has him anything but 4th or 5th.

As for dismissing him winning the title well it would be a huge long shot/surprise. He has zero shot if he plays Djokovic, probably none vs Nadal given their RG history despite his success playing him lately, and only an outside shot to beat Thiem who will be that much harder to outlast/grind down in a best of 5. A match vs Zverev or Tsitipas at RG is probably a 50/50 for Fed at best, even Del Potro who gets up for those sort of matches, or Wawrinka who has done well against Federer on clay since 2014 or so even if he isnt the same player anymore. Beyond those 3 obvious ones who should beat Fed if they meet, and atleast 4 others who have atleast a 50/50 shot to beat him if they somehow cross paths in the draw, there are numerous other dangers to him from the draw behind all those guys. Just look at his 2012-2015 showings. Ok 2012 he lost in the semis to Djokovic as expected, but had some narrow escapes to get there. 2013 and 2014 falling to Gulbis and Tsonga keeping in mind Tsonga's worst surface is clay. In 2015 slapped silly by his pigeon Wawrinka. Anyone in the top 30 who likes clay probably thinks they have a fighting shot, and there are atleast 2 or 3 players he would have to avoid. Someone above listed the 13-16 seeds, all who will be a tough opponent for Federer in round of 16 should both get there, all capable of taking Fed out of RG at this point. Again 2005-2011 is a long time ago, his quality showings on clay in the last 6 years are few and far between, partly since he doesnt even play on it regularly anymore.

He should make the 2nd week but he also could be vurnerable to an upset around 3rd or 4th round, especialy now with an injury maybe. He is probably more likely to go out inn a upset in the 3rd or 4th round than he is to beat any of the 3 favorites, let alone possibly all 3 to win the title.

Pulling out of Rome with an injury does not seem to bolster his chances either.

You seem to be taking offense and think people are dismissing Federer as a qualitiy clay courter. They are not, just realistically evaluating his chances as a 38 year old who has hardly done anything on clay the last 6 years. Seriously if you look over his clay results since then, nearly beating Thiem in a best of 3 is probably one of his top highlights since 2012. He is still a top 10 clay courter in the Open Era, and 3rd best of his era on clay, maybe even a case for 2nd until/if Djokovic wins a 2nd RG title. Nadal was a great grass courter on rye grass way back in 2006-2011 too, he still does not have a prayer at Wimbledon this year.
 
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#33
Federer should never be written off, however, he got gassed after one match practice and one 2-hour, three setter...
Lame excuse after the Coric "stolen" win... (reminds me of that WTF after stretching himself against Wawrinka, then some BS excuse in the final against Novak)
I would be very surprised if he can pull off SEVEN BO5 clay wins...
 
#35
4th round is realistic.
qf if he has the luck of his life,
the rest are fantasies of fanboys.
Reference a post on TTW from a Fed "fanboy" (or any Fed fan) that actually states, "Federer will win the French Open." The near-universal consensus among Fed fans is than a QF result would be fantastic, but a 4R result is more likely. When Connors played Chang at the FO when he was a comparable age to Fed, he retired before the fifth set because of exhaustion (and he was a supposed "warrior"). BO5 at almost 38 ain't happening on clay for any player.
 
#36
Reference a post on TTW from a Fed "fanboy" (or any Fed fan) that actually states, "Federer will win the French Open." The near-universal consensus among Fed fans is than a QF result would be fantastic, but a 4R result is more likely. When Connors played Chang at the FO when he was a comparable age to Fed, he retired before the fifth set because of exhaustion (and he was a supposed "warrior"). BO5 at almost 38 ain't happening on clay for any player.
Federer has been vulturing 5 set wins since the past few years to bolster his record. Gonna be better that Rafole, no? Will win in 5 against Zverev with a bagel in final set, before losing to his stronk era rivals. Easy pickings for the warriors.
 
#40
Reference a post on TTW from a Fed "fanboy" (or any Fed fan) that actually states, "Federer will win the French Open." The near-universal consensus among Fed fans is than a QF result would be fantastic, but a 4R result is more likely. When Connors played Chang at the FO when he was a comparable age to Fed, he retired before the fifth set because of exhaustion (and he was a supposed "warrior"). BO5 at almost 38 ain't happening on clay for any player.
what about on grass?
What are your 4, 5 candidates at Wimbledon?
I'm curious to hear your opinion about this.
 
#41
If both Djokodal lose before the SF, he's definitely got a shot. That's the only realistic scenario to me.

So djokodal lose before sf and Federer is the favorite being a player much older than them, will he continue advancing rounds in the most physically demanding grand slam of the 4?
Sound logical, right?
The reality is that the Swiss to the maximum that can aspire there, is to reach the quarterfinals, something to get it would be a real feat, and surprise at the same time, even more when he has shown a year ago, vulnerability in tournaments to the best of 5 sets.
From there to his early eliminations in Wimbledon and especially in the US Open and in the AO.
His only and last chance, I never tire of repeating it, it's Wimbledon 2019.
The train already happened to the Swiss in the remaining majors, the most he can achieve with his advanced age, is again the quarterfinals in those tournaments.
And that's it, his legacy is intact but his end is very close.
 
#42
So djokodal lose before sf and Federer is the favorite being a player much older than them, will he continue advancing rounds in the most physically demanding grand slam of the 4?
Sound logical, right?
The reality is that the Swiss to the maximum that can aspire there, is to reach the quarterfinals, something to get it would be a real feat, and surprise at the same time, even more when he has shown a year ago, vulnerability in tournaments to the best of 5 sets.
From there to his early eliminations in Wimbledon and especially in the US Open and in the AO.
His only and last chance, I never tire of repeating it, it's Wimbledon 2019.
The train already happened to the Swiss in the remaining majors, the most he can achieve with his advanced age, is again the quarterfinals in those tournaments.
And that's it, his legacy is intact but his end is very close.
Roger is playing well this season. And there's a day off in-between matches. Not to mention the enormous crowd support he enjoys in France.
As I said, if by miracle Djokodal lose before the SF, he's got a shot.
 
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