Why Stanimal Managed to Beat Nole But Murray Failed ?

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
Murray is a better mover and covers the court better than Wawrinka, but he still can't beat Nole. The key is the difference speed in groundstrokes between Murray and Wawrinka. In the semifinal, Murray's average groundstroke speed was 73 miles/hour, Wawrinaka's average speed in the final was 81. That extra 8 miles made the difference between winning and losing. It was fast enough to get Nole out of comfort zone, out of position.


Murray can't improve his court coverage and his defense anymore, because he's already max out. What he needs to do is to amp up his groundstroke speed to beat Nole. At 73 mi/hr., he took Nole to 5 sets. Perhaps an additional 5 more miles, he would have beaten Nole in the semifinal.
 

AnotherTennisProdigy

Professional
The big problem with Murray is unless his game is on there isn't much that he does better than Djokovic. He's better at the net, has a better slice, and a better first serve, but only when he keeps his serve % high.
 

lidoazndiabloboi

Hall of Fame
Shot placement. Murray's shots land too short and too much in the center of the court. Stan gets his shots deeper and wider in the court, resulting in easier shots to wrong foot djokovic.
 

OrangePower

Legend
Murray is a better mover and covers the court better than Wawrinka, but he still can't beat Nole. The key is the difference speed in groundstrokes between Murray and Wawrinka. In the semifinal, Murray's average groundstroke speed was 73 miles/hour, Wawrinaka's average speed in the final was 81. That extra 8 miles made the difference between winning and losing. It was fast enough to get Nole out of comfort zone, out of position.


Murray can't improve his court coverage and his defense anymore, because he's already max out. What he needs to do is to amp up his groundstroke speed to beat Nole. At 73 mi/hr., he took Nole to 5 sets. Perhaps an additional 5 more miles, he would have beaten Nole in the semifinal.
Average groundstroke speed does not tell the complete story. Because it's not that Wawrinka hits every ball 8mph faster than Murray (although he does tend to hit rally balls a bit harder). Rather it's that Wawrinka goes for bigger winners and earlier in the point. On some of those he is hitting 100+ mph. So that drives up the average.

Murray needs to be more aggressive, try take control of the point, and go for more. Playing neutral rallies against Djokovic won't work because Djokovic is better at it than Murray.
 

BringBackSV

Hall of Fame
Murray is a better mover and covers the court better than Wawrinka, but he still can't beat Nole. The key is the difference speed in groundstrokes between Murray and Wawrinka. In the semifinal, Murray's average groundstroke speed was 73 miles/hour, Wawrinaka's average speed in the final was 81. That extra 8 miles made the difference between winning and losing. It was fast enough to get Nole out of comfort zone, out of position.


Murray can't improve his court coverage and his defense anymore, because he's already max out. What he needs to do is to amp up his groundstroke speed to beat Nole. At 73 mi/hr., he took Nole to 5 sets. Perhaps an additional 5 more miles, he would have beaten Nole in the semifinal.
You aren't taking into account tactical differences.
 
N

Nathaniel_Near

Guest
Yeah, that's completely ridiculous. Brutal ball-striking. Is this the record for a 5-set match?
 
N

Nathaniel_Near

Guest
Again, that's average, so is skewed upwards by winners. Still high though! :)

Better metrics to tell the story would be median groundstroke speed and average winner speed.
Yep. I'm very curious to know. The tempo Stan was creating in that match was certainly fierce.
 

ARKustom93

Professional
Again, that's average, so is skewed upwards by winners. Still high though! :)

Better metrics to tell the story would be median groundstroke speed and average winner speed.
FWIW: Courtesy of IBM, avg topspin FH speed against Fed, 83mph.

Wanna bet, even 'prime' Fed(or any of his competitors during that period) didn't get anywhere close to that number?
 
Last edited:

OrangePower

Legend
FWIW: Courtesy of IBM, avg topspin FH speed against Fed, 83mph.

Wanna bet, even 'prime' Fed(or any of his competitors during that period) didn't get anywhere close to that number?
It is super fast to be sure. I would be curious to know what other players were averaging at their peak. Delpo for example. Blake. Roddick when he was still hitting his forhand. Any idea where to find those stats?
 

Keizer

Hall of Fame
Murray is a better mover and covers the court better than Wawrinka, but he still can't beat Nole. The key is the difference speed in groundstrokes between Murray and Wawrinka. In the semifinal, Murray's average groundstroke speed was 73 miles/hour, Wawrinaka's average speed in the final was 81. That extra 8 miles made the difference between winning and losing. It was fast enough to get Nole out of comfort zone, out of position.


Murray can't improve his court coverage and his defense anymore, because he's already max out. What he needs to do is to amp up his groundstroke speed to beat Nole. At 73 mi/hr., he took Nole to 5 sets. Perhaps an additional 5 more miles, he would have beaten Nole in the semifinal.
Depth is a huge issue. Like I've said in many threads that spawned after the final, Wawa prevented Djokovic from standing at the baseline and dictating play with his penetrating groundstrokes. Murray was 2 meters behind the baseline retrieving for his life in the SF (like he always is against Djokovic). The fundamental difference is that Murray's style forces him to beat Djokovic when the latter is playing like he wants to while Wawa forced Djokovic to play a defensive game that he doesn't like to play (he was the analogue to Murray while Wawa was Djokovic). Wawrinka talked about this in multiple pressers.

And 81mph? God almighty, he must've been singing the hairs off the balls.:)
 

hoodjem

G.O.A.T.
Murray is a better mover and covers the court better than Wawrinka, but he still can't beat Nole. The key is the difference speed in groundstrokes between Murray and Wawrinka. In the semifinal, Murray's average groundstroke speed was 73 miles/hour, Wawrinaka's average speed in the final was 81. That extra 8 miles made the difference between winning and losing. It was fast enough to get Nole out of comfort zone, out of position.


Murray can't improve his court coverage and his defense anymore, because he's already max out. What he needs to do is to amp up his groundstroke speed to beat Nole. At 73 mi/hr., he took Nole to 5 sets. Perhaps an additional 5 more miles, he would have beaten Nole in the semifinal.
Very interesting TMF.

You might be onto something here.
 

heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
Court positioning, tactics, weight of shot, the balls to go for winners.
One of the big keys is that Novak can't read WOWrinka's 1st serve well at all.
 

SLD76

G.O.A.T.
Nonsense. Murray has defeated Djoker twice in slams.

The real answer is Djoker is better on slow courts but Murray has his number on faster courts. See Dubai 2012 where Murray blew Djoker off the court. See Wimbledon 2013 and USO 2014.

Once again TMF posting with half the facts and barely any real insight.
 

ARKustom93

Professional
It is super fast to be sure. I would be curious to know what other players were averaging at their peak. Delpo for example. Blake. Roddick when he was still hitting his forhand. Any idea where to find those stats?
To my knowledge, they don't exist.

As for the players mentioned, I'd put Delpo in the mid 70's, Blake and Roddick a couple of mph lower(overrated, IMO.
 

Doubles

Legend
Stan is inconsistent, you can tell that based on the stat sheet even in matches he wins. But when he's on, he's really, really good. He his some of the heaviest shots in pro tennis off of both wings. Simple as that. When your average shot speed off the ground is 80+ mph, it's only a matter of time before you wear your opponent out.
 

rossi46

Professional
Average groundstroke speed does not tell the complete story. Because it's not that Wawrinka hits every ball 8mph faster than Murray (although he does tend to hit rally balls a bit harder). Rather it's that Wawrinka goes for bigger winners and earlier in the point. On some of those he is hitting 100+ mph. So that drives up the average.

Murray needs to be more aggressive, try take control of the point, and go for more. Playing neutral rallies against Djokovic won't work because Djokovic is better at it than Murray.
Too right, something that Djokovic should have also done in the final. Thank god we have a player like Wawrinka, doesn't bore you to death like those two do.
 

La Grande

G.O.A.T.
Murray never made Djokovic uncomfortable. When Stan hits heavy shots at 100mph, that gives Djokovic something to think about. Continue defending and maybe get hit off the court or play aggressive? He is constantly thinking about which is the better option.

When Djokovic plays Murray, he knows he has nothing new to think about. Murray will defend well and play passive, and Djokovic can go for his shots sparingly, and well, when that doesn't work, he can outlast him.

Apart from the slice, Djokovic does everything a bit better than Murray. But Stan has a dangerous forehand, a dangerous backhand, a rocket of a first serve, a good second serve and most importantly, he takes the initiative. This is also why Federer, even at this late stage in his career, troubles Djokovic. The attacking tennis takes Djokovic out of his comfort zone.
 

La Grande

G.O.A.T.
Also, just to add this, Murray has a great great backhand. More solid than Stan's, better in some peoples opinion. But Stan is the more potent "attacking" weapon, imo.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Murray failed because the match was stopped. Nole was gassed out in the semi itself (3rd set), even with a rest the previous day.

If the entire match had been played on one day, Nole would have likely (IMO) lost.
 

el sergento

Hall of Fame
I disagree, it's about strategy.

Murray tries to beat a better version of himself at his own game. That's a losing strategy 9/10 times.

Wawrinka tries to dictate the points, and get Nole either out of position or off ballance, then he either goes for the winner or closes the net. If he misses, he shrugs it off.

Murray never closes the net against Nole, instead, even when he has an oppening, he'll continue to hit down the middle, looking to outlast his opponent and draw an error. This allows Djokovic to use his dropper lob combo at will against Murray, in fact, the first two sets he did it so many times it was embarrasing.

Stan playes to win, Murray plays not to loose.
 

el sergento

Hall of Fame
Murray failed because the match was stopped. Nole was gassed out in the semi itself (3rd set), even with a rest the previous day.

If the entire match had been played on one day, Nole would have likely (IMO) lost.
On what do you base that assumption?? The bagel or breadstick he usually serves Murray in either the 4th or 5th set?

Murray would most likely have lost no matter what. He was too passive and tired himself out digging out crazy passing shots to sets, like he did in the fourth, only to get eaten alive in the fifth.
 

el sergento

Hall of Fame
Also, just to add this, Murray has a great great backhand. More solid than Stan's, better in some peoples opinion. But Stan is the more potent "attacking" weapon, imo.
That's what frustrates me so much about Murray. He rarely goes for winners off that wing, and it could be such a huge weapon for him.

Watch the following point. Murray has several oppenings with his backhand, but decides to play it safe. Federer gets a single oppening and goes for it, ripping a winner on the first chance he gets.

https://youtu.be/gjXQHB6pcpk?t=29
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Wawr and Murray represents opposite playing styles. Wawr is consistent big hitter who takes ball late to crush it off both the wings. Generally offensive shot makers do excel on fast surfaces while defensive players on slower but for Animal it's exactly opposite. Slower surfaces gives him more time to executive his shots and once he founds his range of ground strokes, there is no defense in the world could retrieve his consistent heavy shot making. TMF made very good point about his average ground strokes speed which was very high. Add this to the fact that Animal has natural offensive mindset and he has much superior offense than Murray off both wings. He almost have no weakness when he is on. May be his ROS is weaker as compared to other top players but he can find the way to break once in set against World's very best and generally it's enough to close out set due to his beast serving just like Federer. Let's remember, five out of six sets he won against members of Big 3 in French were 6-3/4 sets which he closed with break and he needed just one tie breaker. Same can't be said for Murray. Even if he is truly on, his second serve is obvious weakness against Djokovic's best return game and it's too often his forehand breaks under pressure in later sets. He basically forced to play same game of superior version of himself due to his playing style and inevitably loses every time on slower surfaces. People often says he need to change defensive strategy and need to go for offense more to beat Djokovic. I agree with that but there is only one court in the World he could realistically beat Djokovic in BO5 with his offensive game. He played some of his best offensive Tennis in USO last year, and even with having advantage of playing on faster court, he couldn't penetrate Djokovic's defense more than two sets. It's just part of that matchup which is the reason he has found himself being on losing side for 18 times out of 27 he faced Djokovic. On the other hand Wawr don't posses very respectable h2h record against Djokovic but when being on, he is the only one in current field can go toe to toe with Djokovic in BO5 format on slow surfaces. This is why he took Djokovic in 5th in 2013 and 2015 on plexicusion while Murray lost in 4 both times. So far he has also defeated him twice in GS, both happens to be on slow surfaces. Murray certainly has developed very good ability to dictate rallies lately rising above limitations of being counter puncher but still it has not proven enough against Djokovic's defense. His chance are limited to grass now while Animal enjoys this matchup at 3 GS venues.
 
Last edited:

Amalhotra

Rookie
Murray is a worse defender than djokovic, but chooses to defend against him anyway, thus resulting in him falling short
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
wo
Murray failed because the match was stopped. Nole was gassed out in the semi itself (3rd set), even with a rest the previous day.

If the entire match had been played on one day, Nole would have likely (IMO) lost.
Historically it has been proven Djokovic is superior athlete out these two and also possess more fitness. He also looked gassed in third set of AO Final but still ended with straight nine games including final set bagel. In Miami Final, under extreme heat which generally forces Djokovic to below his standards, final set again ended with bagel. Murray now may have superior stamina but Djokovic expends lesser average energy in rallies due to his highly efficient strokes and movement. Murray's tree trunk legs, muscular body and relatively inefficient technique on strokes usually betrays him as match goes long. I don't think he would have managed to ground Djokovic out winning it in fifth. Further to that Djokovic was leading the match by 2 sets to love and also have multiple BPs in third set. His lacklustre play in late third and fourth set allowed to Murray comeback in match, which ultimately curbed his chances in Final IMO. He upped the level in fifth finishing match with bread stick. He had full control of that match in third and easily could have finished Murray in straights.
 

Russeljones

G.O.A.T.
Murray is a better mover and covers the court better than Wawrinka, but he still can't beat Nole. The key is the difference speed in groundstrokes between Murray and Wawrinka. In the semifinal, Murray's average groundstroke speed was 73 miles/hour, Wawrinaka's average speed in the final was 81. That extra 8 miles made the difference between winning and losing. It was fast enough to get Nole out of comfort zone, out of position.


Murray can't improve his court coverage and his defense anymore, because he's already max out. What he needs to do is to amp up his groundstroke speed to beat Nole. At 73 mi/hr., he took Nole to 5 sets. Perhaps an additional 5 more miles, he would have beaten Nole in the semifinal.

Average speed takes into account all sorts of strokes. If you want to simply increase it, you'd be advocating a less varied game plan, which I don't think would suit Murray well at all.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
An important reason is that Murray and Djokovic know each other's games very well, each other's strengths and weaknesses, each other's tactics. The only question being which of them will execute better and that's usually Djokovic!

Stan is a totally different proposition who hits the ball harder and goes for aggressive shotmaking right from the start. His only trouble is that he hasn't been able to execute consistently. Since winning 2014 AO, his confidence in taking on the top players increased by leaps and bounds and he was able to execute properly and play his best game in the RG final.

Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal and everybody else need to carefully re-think their tactics when facing Stan in this mood. Everybody's in a different ball-park now since Stan lost his fear of playing against the top players.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
You aren't taking into account tactical differences.
Most of the points are decided from the baseline. Whoever dictate the rallies normally wins most of the points. The difference is Wawrinka was in control while Murray was in defensive situations. Notice Nole was at the net 46 times against Murray but only 24 against Wawrinka. The difference in pace kept Nole at bay.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
Time doesn't stand still

Nonsense. Murray has defeated Djoker twice in slams.

The real answer is Djoker is better on slow courts but Murray has his number on faster courts. See Dubai 2012 where Murray blew Djoker off the court. See Wimbledon 2013 and USO 2014.

Once again TMF posting with half the facts and barely any real insight.
Murray has improved on clay. He beat Nadal in Madrid and before the the match against Nole at the FO semifinal, Nole stated that Murray has improved on this surface.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
IMO, Murray's 2nd serve (and terrible 1st serve %) did him in the Djoker match (like most of his matches).
Murray's 2nd serve average at 138kmh and Stan average at 159kmh. However, Murray had 12 aces in 4 sets to Stan 9 aces.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
An important reason is that Murray and Djokovic know each other's games very well, each other's strengths and weaknesses, each other's tactics. The only question being which of them will execute better and that's usually Djokovic!

Stan is a totally different proposition who hits the ball harder and goes for aggressive shotmaking right from the start. His only trouble is that he hasn't been able to execute consistently. Since winning 2014 AO, his confidence in taking on the top players increased by leaps and bounds and he was able to execute properly and play his best game in the RG final.

Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal and everybody else need to carefully re-think their tactics when facing Stan in this mood. Everybody's in a different ball-park now since Stan lost his fear of playing against the top players.
I think somebody posted that he's 8-12 vs. the Big 4 since the start of the AO 2014. No other player comes near that to my knowledge.
 

donquijote

G.O.A.T.
Two words: Magnus Norman.
Stan performed really well in slower surfaced AO in his two matchups with Novak in recent years but he didn't have any success in Paris before as far as I know. So however he was prepared made a big difference against Djokovic in the final. Hats off to his coach Magnus Norman. This guy is brilliant.
 

BHud

Hall of Fame
Murray can't improve his court coverage and his defense anymore, because he's already max out. What he needs to do is to amp up his groundstroke speed to beat Nole. At 73 mi/hr., he took Nole to 5 sets. Perhaps an additional 5 more miles, he would have beaten Nole in the semifinal.
Or quit playing so far behind the baseline...Agassi stayed on the offensive not by raw power alone, but also by rarely moving backwards off the baseline.
 
Top