Why Thiem will win

Rubens

Hall of Fame
He's not afraid to take chances to make things happen. And he's not missing often when he takes chances. This is a very dangerous type of player for Nadal. And a different player from the one last year. At the same time, Nadal is just getting older. Bad news for Rafa. And no, this is not a jinx attempt. I'm not even a Nadal fan or a Thiem hater (is there even such a thing?).
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
He's not afraid to take chances to make things happen. And he's not missing often when he takes chances. This is a very dangerous type of player for Nadal. And a different player from the one last year. At the same time, Nadal is just getting older. Bad news for Rafa. And no, this is not a jinx attempt. I'm not even a Nadal fan or a Thiem hater (is there even such a thing?).
your last line in no way shields you from any expected criticism for this thread or your post :rolleyes:
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
Apparently I am a Thiem hater, but I just do not see this happening. The clay is too slow and Thiem simply can not hit through these courts. If he challenges Rafa, it will be because Rafa is not at his best, or Thiem simply hits very slim margins all match.

His serve is not good enough, and his return game is so so.
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
speaking as a Nadal fan...

i do expect he will most likely take the title again.

But, i got to say, Thiem has really matured and it is only so long that the ATG generation can continue to suffocate their successor generations.

Thiem making the final twice, in my mind, makes him an established excellent clay court player!

and with all he's been thru this RG, a part of me actually wants him to win!

its just the ongoing GOAT contest that overrides such feelings...
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
I expect Thiem to play better this time around, but I can't see him beating Nadal here. By the time Rafa makes a RG final he has sharpened his game and is absolutely focused. Thiem has played better in the latter rounds particularly in the 4th and QFs, but Nadal is just a different beast in an RG final. I have Rafa in 4 or less.
 

norcal

Legend
Against a well rested and confident Rafa? I mean he has a better chance than Fed did but that's not saying much.
 
Thiem definitely has a shot but I don’t see him making the leap from straight sets loss last year to victory this year. It might be more like a tight 4 or 5 set loss.
 
D

Deleted member 762343

Guest
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Backspin1183

Talk Tennis Guru
I'd be disappointed if Nadal doesn't win this final as I believe he has played the better tennis of the two this tournament. If he can't win when he is paying better, he sure will not win when he is playing worse than his opponent in the next editions of RG.
 
He's not afraid to take chances to make things happen. And he's not missing often when he takes chances. This is a very dangerous type of player for Nadal. And a different player from the one last year. At the same time, Nadal is just getting older. Bad news for Rafa. And no, this is not a jinx attempt. I'm not even a Nadal fan or a Thiem hater (is there even such a thing?).

It's definitely possible. Thiem is a different animal since that IW win earlier in the year. There is a new sense of belief and tactically he is massively improved from this time last year.

With that said, there are still data points from the SF that indicate he is mentally shaky.

He won't be able to afford a blip like he had against Novak yesterday when serving for the match.

From a pure stroke mechanics and stamina standpoint, there is no reason why Thiem can't hang with RAFA, but he will have to be at his absolute best to have a chance.
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
I'd be disappointed if Nadal doesn't win this final as I believe he has played the better tennis of the two this tournament. If he can't win when he is paying better, he sure will not win when he is playing worse than his opponent in the next editions of RG.

Actually it depends on who plays better in the final than in the entire tournament. We saw what happened at the AO 2019 where Nadal looked amazing until the final.

It could be a great match. Thiem looks to be peaking at the right time and he's young and hungry. My one fear for Nadal is that he has really not been tested except against Goffin and he lost a set there. So what happens when Rafa loses the first set?

Still, I'd put my money even on an aging Nadal over anyone else in a RG final. I still have him for the win in 4 sets. His superior court acumen and experience would compensate for the lost speed and stamina.
The only scenario in which I would favor Thiem is if the match goes to 5 sets.
 
F

FRV

Guest
Was that when Djokovic said he was the better player?
All he said was that he's beatable on clay and that the match they were playing depended on himself. I didn't see that match so I don't know if that's true, but I don't see anything in the interview to make it seem like Djokovic says he is the better player. He even calls Rafa the best on that surface.
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
He's not afraid to take chances to make things happen. And he's not missing often when he takes chances. This is a very dangerous type of player for Nadal. And a different player from the one last year. At the same time, Nadal is just getting older. Bad news for Rafa. And no, this is not a jinx attempt. I'm not even a Nadal fan or a Thiem hater (is there even such a thing?).

Well, I agree partly but the other part is he blew chances to win that fourth set against Nole and ended up needlessly expending a lot of effort. Choked from match points up as well in the fifth. He is lucky to have got away with that against Nole as, usually, Nadalovic make you pay a heavy price for missing such opportunities. I don't think he will get lucky twice so he had better keep it tight and clutch. Else Dal gonna dal.
 

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
He's not afraid to take chances to make things happen. And he's not missing often when he takes chances. This is a very dangerous type of player for Nadal. And a different player from the one last year. At the same time, Nadal is just getting older. Bad news for Rafa. And no, this is not a jinx attempt. I'm not even a Nadal fan or a Thiem hater (is there even such a thing?).

So you think, Thiem has higher shot tolerance than Nadal at this point ? Novak beats Rafa by out rallying him and going longer than Rafa on baseline rallies which drives nadal crazy. but not sure it Thiem can go longer and out rallie rafa over 5 sets ?
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
So you think, Thiem has higher shot tolerance than Nadal at this point ? Novak beats Rafa by out rallying him and going longer than Rafa on baseline rallies which drives nadal crazy. but not sure it Thiem can go longer and out rallie rafa over 5 sets ?

At one point in the fifth set, they showed a stat of points won in rallies of 4 shots or longer and it was dead even between Thiem and Novak. So I don't think shot tolerance is an issue. What is is poor shot selection and a frequent inability to keep his adrenaline bottled up just a little. When Thiem starts redlining, he frequently goes over the top and shatters the needle, resulting in rubbish errors attributable to nothing but overhitting.
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
I’m not expecting the upset but two things make it more probably much closer than last year’s final:

1. Thiem has played far fewer matches in ‘19 overall and on the dirt than he had before last year. I don’t think stamina will be an issue later today, despite the bottleneck top half schedule. The QF was quick on Thursday and the SF was split into manageable lengths so it will be like the M1K schedules before 5-set finals were abolished.

2. His win in Barca over The Nadal in ‘19 was in conditions more similar to RG, unlike the Madrid’18 victory. Now he knows he can compete on slower clay. If he brings that level from the start and The Nadal is even a bit less sharp from his very easy path, it should not be a cakewalk.
 
D

Deleted member 762343

Guest
All he said was that he's beatable on clay and that the match they were playing depended on himself. I didn't see that match so I don't know if that's true, but I don't see anything in the interview to make it seem like Djokovic says he is the better player. He even calls Rafa the best on that surface.

He said he was in control of the match and I can assure you that’s completely false. Djoko was utterly arrogant and delusional here.
 
I dunno if he'll win but Thiem's run to the final is very very similar to Nadal's run in 2013. Dropping sets in the early rounds, crushing R16/QF wins, dramatic 5 set win over Nole in the SF. On top of this Nole got pissed off in both matches.

Bad news is that Nadal got Daveed & Thiem got Nadal. Thiem has 0% chance if he wins the 1st set, negative otherwise.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Nadal in 4. Thiem did not have a day to recover because of poor scheduling.

Just like the Rome final you mean ? So rigging draws is not enough to give Nadal titles these days like at USO so they're going a step ahead and rigging schedules too so Nadal's opponents have no legs left when they face him.
 
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