Why wasn’t Federer successful at US Open after 2008?

Hyde

Semi-Pro
USO and Wimbledon were Federer’s tournaments back in the day. He won USO 5 times in a row from 2004-2008. After that, he won another 3 Wimbledons, 3 Australian Open and 1 French Open - but no more USO. Reached just one USO final in the 2010‘s.
You can’t even name Djokovic as the reason because Djokovic wasn’t that great at USO as well (winning it „just“ 3 times).

What happened with Federer at USO?
 
I would more say after 2011 apart from 2015 and NatF makes a great point.
 
Some near misses against Djokovic in the semis (although he wouldn't have beaten Nadal in the final), Del Potro, and some big servers knocking him out (Berdych, Cilic, Dimitrov). The Millman and Robredo losses were really bad as well.

As he got older, he's clearly vulnerable to those big servebots. Lost to Anderson at 2018 Wimbledon, Hurkacz at this years Wimbledon. He can't handle it when his opponent serves well. I think tiredness at the end of the season played a huge factor as well. Federer lacks the stamina of Djokovic or Nadal.
 
USO and Wimbledon were Federer’s tournaments back in the day. He won USO 5 times in a row from 2004-2008. After that, he won another 3 Wimbledons, 3 Australian Open and 1 French Open - but no more USO. Reached just one USO final in the 2010‘s.
You can’t even name Djokovic as the reason because Djokovic wasn’t that great at USO as well (winning it „just“ 3 times).

What happened with Federer at USO?
2009 final was a horrible strategic mistake.
2010 & 2011 back to back 40-15 (not Winning 2010 anyways but would have won 2011)
2012 was bad day and bad strategic loss to Berdych
2013 injured
2014 very bad form, lost to powerful cilic
2015 good run but very tight on important points
2016 didn't play
2017 foolish to play canada and rush himself, should have not rushed for #1 which he didn't get anyways
2018 worst ever Forehand & return period from june to November
2019 unfortunate neck cramp & unclutch in set4
 
Choked hard in 2009. Was unlucky in 2010-11. Couldn't bring his best level since then except for 2015 - when again he choked hard. So definitely a disappointing performance for 5 time USO winner. He should have won at least one more.
 
Should have won 2009. Choked a fairly straightforward match. Then he had 2 MPs to make the final in 2010 and 2011. We all know what happened. He was in blazing hot form heading into 2012 USO and inexplicably lost to Berdych. I still do not understand how he lost that one. Caught Cilic in God mode in 2014. Made the final in 2015. And since his comeback in 2017, he has been a non factor at the USO. But from 2009-15, he was not as bad as people think . He had quite a few chances to snag a couple of USOs. So many chokes.
 
I love Federer but it cannot be ignored that he had a consecutive series of truly epic chokes in 2009-11.

2014 Cilic was a monster though I don’t blame him for that loss. 2012 Berdych simply outplayed him and I think the Olympics hangover played a role there, he just didn’t have any fight left. 2017 USO was one of the weirdest tournaments I’ve seen him play, all of the good form from Wimbledon just went in the toilet. People forget but he went 5 with Youzhny and Tiafoe in the first two rounds there.

Overall a lot of choking, bad luck with opponents, and fitness/form letting him down at Slams he had an opportunity to win; a sad microcosm of Fed’s post-2012 career really.
 
Last edited:
Better players emerged.
That's ridiculous.Robredo, Berdych Millman ? How about the injuries ?
Why did Connors failed to win the USO after 1983 ? After all, he retired in 1996, 13 years after he won there last time.Why did JMac failed to win the USO after 1984 ? After all, he retired in 1994, 10 years after he won there the last time.
 
2009 and 2011 he wasted opportunities in matches that were on his racket. 2010 could be said so as well, but he wasn't beating that Nadal anyway, and Djokovic saved the MPs with great play, there was no choke whatsoever.

2012 and 2014 he had decent draws and lost to inferior players at a time he was playing well, he could have done better in one of those years. If he had played as he did in 2015 he would have won, but unfortunately for him peaked against Djokovic instead of Cilic or Berdych. Cilic also played the match of his life, but Federer allowed him to.

2015 he wasted many BPs, maybe he would have had a shot otherwise.

2013 and 2018 he just wasn't good enough, not much to do there, lost to inferior players and would have lost to many players.

2017 and 2019 were winnable if not for injury. In 2017 he played Montreal for some reason and hurt his back, everyone was saying it was a bad move and it affected him at the USO. He was owning Nadal on HC at the time, so it was a solid opportunity after winning AO and Wimbledon. In 2019 he was playing great tennis in the early rounds but got injured against Dimitrov. Nadal wasn't playing that well compared to other years so it was winnable if he had stayed healthy.

2016 and 2020 he didn't play because of surgery but those looked like solid chances if he had played, especially the latter. He did well at the AO even with an injury that year and the USO final was a disaster.
 
Federer played during the normal order of men's tennis. This was when strong young guns ended the slam runs of the aging players and started winning them. This is what happened to Federer after 2008 at the USO.
 
Well, he was solid there for a couple years after 2008. Excluding injury years, a few losses were about mentality (likely including 2015), rather unfortunate. Another few due to inadequite level of play.

Comparing to other Slams, success at Wimbledon - not only it's his best surface but a major priority for him. AO is right at the start of the season. Roger is fresh, confident after a usually good ending to the previous year. With USO, I presume the older players who are super consistent get, the harder it is for them to keep up great form physically for the last Slam of the year. And if there is some mental baggage you got during the season, it's likely to affect you at the USO as well.
 
A lot of good reasons already listed in this thread. I'll add that he really struggles with the conditions on Arthur Ashe especially during evening matches. Think of his losses to Robredo and Millman. I can't immediately think of any other matches where he was sweating so much
 
2009-2012 he lost to stronger, better players who could’ve beaten him in 2004-2008 too.

Since 2013 he almost always had some fitness or scheduling issues. 2015 was the exception; that was his highest level in New York but he ran into an immovable object.
 
Federer lacks the stamina of Djokovic or Nadal.
Fed beat Nadal in almost 4 hours at the 2017 AO. Rafa was clearly gassed after dropping serve in the fifth, Fed was not. Roger was 35, Nadal 30.

Fed held MP's after almost 5 hours at 2019 Wimbledon versus Djokovic. He showed no signs of fatigue whatsoever at almost 38, with an opponent 6 years younger.

Until 2021, you can count on the fingers of one hand matches where Fed was clearly tired (AO 2019 comes to mind). His issues have never been stamina until his "comeback" this year.
 
He had a lot of successful runs at the USO post 2008, he just had tougher competition and didn't take the chances he did have.

2009, 2011, 2015 were ones where he could've won the tournament. 2010 he was never bearing Rafa but a final is not a bad run anyway.
 
Back
Top