Why you should pay more attention to Djokovic's serve by Andrew Eichenholz

O

Oceans

Guest
In the past, people didn't often discuss World No. 1 Novak Djokovic’s serve. But the statistics show that it has long been among tennis’ best.

Starting in 2011, Djokovic finished among the ATP Tour’s 10 best in service games won every season except for 2017, when he underwent right elbow surgery. The Serbian has averaged just more than five aces per match in his career according to Infosys ATP Scores & Stats, but he has still been effective.

Djokovic ranks fifth in career second-serve points won (56%) and 14th in career service games won (86%). The 32-year-old has won a higher rate of service games than players known for their big serves — Goran Ivanisevic and Mark Philippoussis — as well as former World No. 1s Rafael Nadal, Jim Courier, Andre Agassi, Stefan Edberg, Ivan Lendl and more.

Djokovic has outpaced his average rate of service games won (86%) this season. He has won nearly 90 per cent of his service games in 2020, up from 87 per cent in 2018 and 88 per cent in 2019. That has helped Djokovic to an 18-0 start, leading Team Serbia to ATP Cup glory, triumphing at the Australian Open and lifting the trophy in Dubai.

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O

Oceans

Guest
“You actually don’t think about his serve, which is kind of disrespectful to him in a sense, just because he does everything so well. You immediately talk about his return and of course his movement around the court, and his groundstrokes are the best in the world. He spot serves it very well. He won’t necessarily hit it 130 miles per hour, but he’s definitely improved that part of his game. He would even say probably six or seven years ago that his serve was a bit of a liability. But now it’s not at all, and that’s why he’s the most dominant player in the game. He doesn’t have a weakness. He just doesn’t. That’s why he’s No. 1 in the world, he’s one of the greatest players of all-time. He’s only a few Grand Slams now behind the all-time record. It’s pretty incredible what he’s doing.”

- Isner

“I think it’s moreso because of everything else in his game. He does serve very well. But he’s breaking serve [more than 30 per cent] of the time, which is ridiculous. Obviously when you give him the first strike of the ball, it’s going to be even higher. He does serve well and it’s not talked about. But it’s really the rest of his game that makes him impossible to break.”

- Opelka

“I'm hitting everything I can in terms of the variety of spin, slice, flat, hitting the spots, body, wide, T. I'm trying to mix it up all the time. Obviously depends who I play against. Obviously I have different tactics depending on the opponent. I feel that my serve this year so far in the ATP Cup and also the Australian Open has been terrific. It's allowed me to win a lot of free points. When I'm serving well and getting a high percentage of first serves in, it allows me to feel more comfortable, more confident, step in and play at the higher level of tennis. We worked a lot in the off-season on my serve. I'm feeling great. I have a great rhythm. Obviously I know that different surfaces, different times, require different adjustments. But in terms of the way I've been serving now, it has been some of the best serving I've had in my career.

- Djokovic
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
All these things need to be heeded by those who endlessly tout Karlovic or isner’s serves. There’s a lot more going on with a serve than mere velocity. Djokovic rarely serves above 125 MPH, but has an incredibly effective serve. He has improved his serve tremendously from his yip days in 2009.
 
It is hard to analyze just the effectiveness of his serve versus him just as a player. He is such a good player that even if his serve only gives him a slight advantage, that may be all he needs to win a point. I would be more interested in finding out how many of service points he wins ends in 3 or less shots, or somehow normalizing service game win percentage for all players.
 

bjsnider

Hall of Fame
There are a couple of things in this article that are misleading. First, I agree that Djokovic has one of the best hold games on the tour and has since 2011. This is the generalized category where Djokovic separates himself from Murray, whose hold game was less effective.

Having said that, it is highly misleading to say that "Djokovic ranks fifth in career second-serve points won (56%) and 14th in career service games won (86%). The 32-year-old has won a higher rate of service games than players known for their big serves — Goran Ivanisevic and Mark Philippoussis — as well as former World No. 1s Rafael Nadal, Jim Courier, Andre Agassi, Stefan Edberg, Ivan Lendl and more."

Holding serve on the men's tour has been progressively getting easier over the years. Djokovic's numbers are inflated by that. Pete Sampras led the ATP in hold game stats through the 1990s with numbers similar to Djokovic's (up until around 1996 anyway), but Sampras' hold game was played in a different era, where holding serve was much harder than with Djokovic's generation.

It would be equally misleading to say that, in the first half of the 1990s, there were many returners with better numbers than Djokovic typically achieves in contemporary times, and that those players are better returners than Djokovic. The truth is that the entire tour finds it more difficult to return serve now than when the stats era began in 1991.
 

SonnyT

Legend
The fundamentals aren't too dissimilar to Federer, though you can always argue aesthetics. I think he could serve a tiny bit bigger, but with his accuracy it's hard to argue with the results.

He shouldn't serve bigger. One word answer: ELBOW.

The reason Federer can serve bigger and still has no elbow issue is: Fed's serve is as biomechanically perfect as humanly possible.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
His serve has certainly improved leaps and bounds in the last few years. It's now almost always accurate and the placement excellent (legacy of Boris' influence?).
 
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