Will Alcaraz be huge threat to Djokovic in 23-24

[mahatma]

Alcaraz is having a great season which may take him to world #1 as soon as in a day. That being said do you guys see him being a great threat to Djokovic for the slam race.

There has been only one match between the two, which was one of the best clay court match of the year, which Alcaraz won in a tie break in decider.

There hasn't been any matches of the 2 in HC and Grass. I personally feel Alcaraz will have to improve a lot on serve and BH to be a threat to Djokovic ( ofcourse when Djokovic plays), to really be a thorn in the slam race.

Also I am discounting Nadal from HC and Grass given his current form in both surfaces. Clay is where Nadal will still win another FO or 2.

Views??

 

[Deleted member 758560]

a bit harder to say about djo slam tally, but about nadal it's two options 22 or 23 (french)

 

[DSH]

Alcaraz is having a great season which may take him to world #1 as soon as in a day. That being said do you guys see him being a great threat to Djokovic for the slam race.

There has been only one match between the two, which was one of the best clay court match of the year, which Alcaraz won in a tie break in decider.

There hasn't been any matches of the 2 in HC and Grass. I personally feel Alcaraz will have to improve a lot on serve and BH to be a threat to Djokovic ( ofcourse when Djokovic plays), to really be a thorn in the slam race.

Also I am discounting Nadal from HC and Grass given his current form in both surfaces. Clay is where Nadal will still win another FO or 2.

Views??

Nadal is the current champion of Australia and in his last three appearances at Wimbledon he has reached the semifinals.
The one who should already be ruled out at RG and in the US Open is your idol, he will no longer have a chance to win in those places.

 

[ChaelAZ]

You mean, can Djo be a threat to Alcaraz next year.

I think he still has a shot, but Alcaraz highest level now is as good as the big 3 in their prime as well, so old Djo has the bigger ask to win than Alcaraz. Same playing Nadal too. Both Nadal and Djo have some experience that edges things, but pure physicallity and movement is where things will get skewed hard to Alcaz. To me, ceteris paribus for everything else, including a big standout I think has been missing for the last gen players which is Alcz tenacity and never giving up. Same as the big 3 ever had.

 

[mahatma]

You mean, can Djo be a threat to Alcaraz next year.

I think he still has a shot, but Alcaraz highest level now is as good as the big 3 in their prime as well, so old Djo has the bigger ask to win than Alcaraz. Same playing Nadal too. Both Nadal and Djo have some experience that edges things, but pure physicallity and movement is where things will get skewed hard to Alcaz. To me, ceteris paribus for everything else, including a big standout I think has been missing for the last gen players which is Alcz tenacity and never giving up. Same as the big 3 ever had.

Well you have a lot of bias. Haven't seen any such great level in a 5 set scrapping against Tiafoe. It would be a surprise if he wins a slam in 2023.

 

[DSH]

You mean, can Djo be a threat to Alcaraz next year.

I think he still has a shot, but Alcaraz highest level now is as good as the big 3 in their prime as well, so old Djo has the bigger ask to win than Alcaraz. Same playing Nadal too. Both Nadal and Djo have some experience that edges things, but pure physicallity and movement is where things will get skewed hard to Alcaz. To me, ceteris paribus for everything else, including a big standout I think has been missing for the last gen players which is Alcz tenacity and never giving up. Same as the big 3 ever had.

A match in the quarterfinals in Melbourne between Joker and Carlitos would be very crunchy, that's what the ATP needs now, a titan against the new jewel in the crown.

 

[Kralingen]

There is a large chance that Djokovic never beats Alcaraz in his entire career.

 

[DSH]

There is a large chance that Djokovic never beats Alcaraz in his entire career.

Sería fabuloso!

 

[aldeayeah]

He will be a tiny threat.

 

[ChaelAZ]

Well you have a lot of bias. Haven't seen any such great level in a 5 set scrapping against Tiafoe. It would be a surprise if he wins a slam in 2023.

Bias goes both ways, where you think Djo is still physically at the level of Alcz, who just showed he can go through epic 5 set matches, including the instant classic against Sinner (as good as most big 3 match-up ever were), including Djo playing hihs best on clay and Alcz showing he isn't afriad of anything Djo has, and won. But okay. I will give you grass, but clay and HC will be different. Maybe even grass.

A match in the quarterfinals in Melbourne between Joker and Carlitos would be very crunchy, that's what the ATP needs now, a titan against the new jewel in the crown.

That would be aweomse, but will see how Djo comes back. I am all for more Sinner v. Alcz personally.

 

[NoleFam]

Bias goes both ways, where you think Djo is still physically at the level of Alcz, who just showed he can go through epic 5 set matches, including the instant classic against Sinner (as good as most big 3 match-up ever were), including Djo playing hihs best on clay and Alcz showing he isn't afriad of anything Djo has, and won. But okay. I will give you grass, but clay and HC will be different. Maybe even grass.



That would be aweomse, but will see how Djo comes back. I am all for more Sinner v. Alcz personally.

Djokovic played his best on clay? LOL. He wasn't on in the match and still trying to find his form and conditioning, and still almost beat him. Shows how good he is. Should they play, there should be some more great matches but one thing is for sure, Djokovic is still a far better player on grass. He would have been crushed by Djokovic had he made it past Sinner, who he couldn't even break once the entire match. Djokovic will eventually stop winning but Alcaraz is 19 and 19 year olds need more time to truly dominate.

 

[junior74]

Djokovic is losing a lot of match practice the way things are. His best level is in the past. Him and Rafa sure made hay, though.

 

[ForehandDTL]

Soon, Djokovic’s only window will be at WB. And there are only so many times you can gift away the first set or two and win the match when you are 36-37.

 

[Chanwan]

There is a large chance that Djokovic never beats Alcaraz in his entire career.

Care to put a percentage on large?

 

[ChaelAZ]

Djokovic played his best on clay? LOL. He wasn't on in the match and still trying to find his form and conditioning, and still almost beat him. Shows how good he is. Should they play, there should be some more great matches but one thing is for sure, Djokovic is still a far better player on grass. He would have been crushed by Djokovic had he made it past Sinner, who he couldn't even break once the entire match. Djokovic will eventually stop winning but Alcaraz is 19 and 19 year olds need more time to truly dominate.

Nolefam apologist. Same as Nadalfam apologists. Or Fedfam apologists of the past.
Any loss, their players wasn't their best.

Of course, no one was as good at this as Serena herself, who always outright said she only lost because of her play, never credit to the opponents.

Next year will be fun, and I hope they do meet a few times to see how that pans out.

 

[ND-13]

Folks, taking 5 sets to defeat Cilic and Tiafoe is not a stain but winning 3 back to back to back 5 sets to reach finals at age 19 is the rarity we need to appreciate

Novak took 5 sets to beat Seppi, Nadal needed 5 to defeat Kendrick. And Tiafoe and Cilic are way better players

 

[NoleFam]

Nolefam apologist. Same as Nadalfam apologists. Or Fedfam apologists of the past.
Any loss, their players wasn't their best.

Of course, no one was as good at this as Serena herself, who always outright said she only lost because of her play, never credit to the opponents.

Next year will be fun, and I hope they do meet a few times to see how that pans out.

Of course he wasn't at his best. He was being gassed in any matches that went over two and half hours and into 3 sets. He got bageled by Rublev because he was so tired. Was he at his best then? That wasn't Djokovic firing on all cylinders. He was good but not at his best like you said.

Well she did and had trouble giving credit to her opponents, but have no idea what she has to do with Djokovic.

Same.

 

[ND-13]

This should not be even a question .Next year draws will play a huge part. Nadal and Djokovic could meet earlier and face Alcaraz later . Good luck beating two such opponents

 

[mahatma]

I feel we all are overestimating Alcaraz for 2023. He is good no doubt and will win against Djokovic too a lot, but where it matters - i.e. slams it's going to be tough to beat best of Djokovic. Ofcourse Nole's best these days is also a lower peak.

I feel BO3 Alcaraz and BO5 Djokovic, that's how next year should look.

 

[Chanwan]

Alcaraz is having a great season which may take him to world #1 as soon as in a day. That being said do you guys see him being a great threat to Djokovic for the slam race.

There has been only one match between the two, which was one of the best clay court match of the year, which Alcaraz won in a tie break in decider.

There hasn't been any matches of the 2 in HC and Grass. I personally feel Alcaraz will have to improve a lot on serve and BH to be a threat to Djokovic ( ofcourse when Djokovic plays), to really be a thorn in the slam race.

Also I am discounting Nadal from HC and Grass given his current form in both surfaces. Clay is where Nadal will still win another FO or 2.

Views??

Depends how you look at it. Do I think Alcaraz' is capable of beating Djokovic at a slam as early at AO 2023? Yes.
On HC and clay, he's more than ready to do battle. On grass, he probably needs an extra year and Djokovic to lose a few percentages. But 2024 I can see him being a huge treat.

A lot of factors here though:

• Carlos' made a huge jump in level from 2021 to 2022. Can he go even higher in 2023? I think he can and if he does, everyone - Djokovic included - will have their hands full
• Djokovic' own level. He's turning 36 next year. Will he still have the physical edge vs. the young guns in the long battles? Can he go multiple 5-setters if needed?
• Carlos' serve & RoS: Will they improve further? As of now, Djokovic has a clear edge in both departments, whereas I see Carlos having the edge in a neutral rally.

In short, yes, I think Carlos' will be a huge threat to Djokovic outside of grass for the rest of his career. Not saying he'll beat him everytime or anything, but Djokovic won't have it easy against him. He's got a bit of Stanimal in him with his huge hitting off both wings. Djokovic didn't like that

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

There is a large chance that Djokovic never beats Alcaraz in his entire career.

It is a real possibility..

Alcaraz may come to 2023 with a better serve and further improvements to his game.

 

[sportsfan1]

There is a large chance that Djokovic never beats Alcaraz in his entire career.

Overstatement unless this was meant to be a joke. That's very optimistic considering he's recently beaten sinner (and sinner is better than carlos except for serve and athleticism), zverev, tsi and a whole bunch of other next gens in 5 sets without any physical issues.
Djokovic still has the better serve, returns, bp conversion rate, and more importantly wouldn't throw away leads like Carlos does. Once the big 2 get going (especially Djokovic now, with nadal dealing with injury issues) it takes a very high level with zero dips through the match to beat them.

Carlos is pulling out matches with incredible defense, mental strength towards the close, and some jitters from opponents (sinner and tiafoe). He's currently winning in 5 sets what he could be winning in 3 or 4 sets. There's a lot of things for him to work on - his bp conversion rate, affinity for unnecessary risks, decision making, playing lower percentage shots rather than making an under pressure opponent play difficult positions.

Beating the big 3 in a slam requires a very polished and zoning opponent, and that's just coming in to the match.

 

[Chanwan]

I feel we all are overestimating Alcaraz for 2023. He is good no doubt and will win against Djokovic too a lot, but where it matters - i.e. slams it's going to be tough to beat best of Djokovic. Ofcourse Nole's best these days is also a lower peak.

I feel BO3 Alcaraz and BO5 Djokovic, that's how next year should look.

Should being key here - i.e. that's how you hope it will look, I presume? I hope and think Alcaraz will be able to battle him in best of 5 as well. For the record, Alcaraz' record in the 5th is even better than Djokovic' - he's 8-1 in the fifth so far (though Djokovic' excellence in the fifth is built on a much higher number of matches of course)

 

[RF-18]

Alcaraz is maturing by the day. Being so young at this level it's hard to find that ability to ease past and routine opponents. But he is winning these matches and he is in a GS final. He can already now challenge anyone.

It's gonna be interesting to see Sinner and Alcaraz next year along with diamond age players. Djokovic will have his hands full now that he will be allowed to enter any tournament he wants.

 

[Slicehand]

I hope they have some battles, can be fun stuff, lets see if djokovic can still keep up after a year of playing so few matches

 

[Hitman]

Its great for the sport and will force Djokovic to step up or get stepped on.

Lets play some ball. If Djokovic loses, he loses, but lets just get everyone to the courts so they can play.

Novak is one slam away from taking the top spot again, lets see who is bold enough to shut Novak out of EVERY SINGLE slam over the next five years....Novak has won 4 of the last 6 he has played in, he doesn't even need to come close to that now, one or two and that's it.

 

[ChrisJR3264]

It's too early to start claiming Carlos as a potential threat to have more slams than either of the big 3. And if he does - he still won't be considered better than those guys in my opinion. Those 3 guys played their era of tennis against each other and you have to add in Murray bc he beat Novak twice for two of his 3 slams on Grass and Hard courts.

Carlos is a young talent but looking at the next gen talent - Medvdev is already 26 - and while i love his game, i think he needs to add some aggressive tactics in the near future. I don't consider Titsipas a threat at slams ever - unless its on clay. Tiafoe - He made a run at the US - but still known to be inconsistent.
I think Zverev took a huge step in beating Carlos at the French. I still think he can win a slam and shouldve done it at the US in 2020. FAA and Rublev are still too inconsistent at majors. FAA has the talent to win a slam on any surface but something isn't clicking being bounced early at WImbledon and US while he took both Medvdev and rafa 5 sets at the first two slams in the qtrs and 4th round. ( almost beat Rafa on clay)

Sinner is probably his greatest threat going forward to beat him on slams and honestly - sinner is a serve away from really being a better player than Carlos.
MAYBE Casper Ruud - pending how he fairs throughout a full season. His best surface is clay so kind of surprised how he did here at the Open.
Rune is unknown still for me as I've only seen the best success for him on clay as well.

Correct me if I'm missing anyone else that could pose a threat to Carlos when the big 3 officially hang it up but it's always going to be hard to compare eras. Novak/Roger/Rafa all played in the same era and Roger played against Hewitt, Sampras, Agassi early on - so he had to evolve his game to the next generation modern day era and honestly excelled when he did.

 

[Lauren_Girl']

You mean, can Djo be a threat to Alcaraz next year.

I think he still has a shot, but Alcaraz highest level now is as good as the big 3 in their prime as well, so old Djo has the bigger ask to win than Alcaraz. Same playing Nadal too. Both Nadal and Djo have some experience that edges things, but pure physicallity and movement is where things will get skewed hard to Alcaz. To me, ceteris paribus for everything else, including a big standout I think has been missing for the last gen players which is Alcz tenacity and never giving up. Same as the big 3 ever had.

How is Alcaraz's highest level anywhere near Federer, Nadal and Djokovic's peak? Either you have short memory or you weren't following tennis in 2004-2007 and 2011-2015.
If Alcaraz's top level equals saving match points against Sinner and being a break down in a 5th set against Cilic, he would have lost 6-2 6-3 6-2 against the Big-3 in their prime years.

 

[BumElbow]

Actually, will Alcaraz and Ruud be threats to Djokovic next year? Initially, Djokovic will be rusty and not match tough. Kyrgios - and probably Tiafoe - will also be threats to Djokovic as well.

 

[mahatma]

It's too early to start claiming Carlos as a potential threat to have more slams than either of the big 3. And if he does - he still won't be considered better than those guys in my opinion. Those 3 guys played their era of tennis against each other and you have to add in Murray bc he beat Novak twice for two of his 3 slams on Grass and Hard courts.

Carlos is a young talent but looking at the next gen talent - Medvdev is already 26 - and while i love his game, i think he needs to add some aggressive tactics in the near future. I don't consider Titsipas a threat at slams ever - unless its on clay. Tiafoe - He made a run at the US - but still known to be inconsistent.
I think Zverev took a huge step in beating Carlos at the French. I still think he can win a slam and shouldve done it at the US in 2020. FAA and Rublev are still too inconsistent at majors. FAA has the talent to win a slam on any surface but something isn't clicking being bounced early at WImbledon and US while he took both Medvdev and rafa 5 sets at the first two slams in the qtrs and 4th round. ( almost beat Rafa on clay)

Sinner is probably his greatest threat going forward to beat him on slams and honestly - sinner is a serve away from really being a better player than Carlos.
MAYBE Casper Ruud - pending how he fairs throughout a full season. His best surface is clay so kind of surprised how he did here at the Open.
Rune is unknown still for me as I've only seen the best success for him on clay as well.

Correct me if I'm missing anyone else that could pose a threat to Carlos when the big 3 officially hang it up but it's always going to be hard to compare eras. Novak/Roger/Rafa all played in the same era and Roger played against Hewitt, Sampras, Agassi early on - so he had to evolve his game to the next generation modern day era and honestly excelled when he did.

Agreed on the Sinner part. He was having match point against ATG Alcaraz and choked.

 

[Krish872007]

Alcaraz is maturing by the day. Being so young at this level it's hard to find that ability to ease past and routine opponents. But he is winning these matches and he is in a GS final. He can already now challenge anyone.

It's gonna be interesting to see Sinner and Alcaraz next year along with diamond age players. Djokovic will have his hands full now that he will be allowed to enter any tournament he wants.

Can he play US Open next year? I think other than that he should be able to take part in others

 

[dking68]

I think Jannik Sinner will end his hype next year. If Sinner improves his serve, I can see him bagging 2 slams next year

 

[travlerajm]

You mean, can Djo be a threat to Alcaraz next year.

I think he still has a shot, but Alcaraz highest level now is as good as the big 3 in their prime as well, so old Djo has the bigger ask to win than Alcaraz. Same playing Nadal too. Both Nadal and Djo have some experience that edges things, but pure physicallity and movement is where things will get skewed hard to Alcaz. To me, ceteris paribus for everything else, including a big standout I think has been missing for the last gen players which is Alcz tenacity and never giving up. Same as the big 3 ever had.

Important to point out that Carlos’ level this tournament is not close to level of prior top #1 players’ us open runs.

Most dominant players romp through with a dominance ratio in the 2.0 range. Carlos’ level has only been at about 1.2 in this tourney, which would be statistically one of the lowest levels ever for a US Open open winner.

 

[Shaolin]

He'll be a threat to everyone.

 

[ChrisJR3264]

Important to point out that Carlos’ level this tournament is not close to level of prior top #1 players’ us open runs.

Most dominant players romp through with a dominance ratio in the 2.0 range. Carlos’ level has only been at about 1.2 in this tourney, which would be statistically one of the lowest levels ever for a US Open open winner.

To be honest it’s not close to medvedevs. He slaughtered Novak in straight sets when he was going for the calendar year grand slam and a packed house to literally see him do it.

 

[Kralingen]

Care to put a percentage on large?

70-80%

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

There is a large chance that Djokovic never beats Alcaraz in his entire career.

Well they only played once so hardly a large sample size too choose from. Let’s see what happens.

 

[StrongRule]

No, he will not be. He is being overrated. Medvedev in 2019 was playing better than him, but he had to face 2019 Nadal in USO final. Does anyone really think Alcaraz would beat 2019 Nadal? He couldn't even beat 2022 Nadal in IW.

 

[paolo2143]

100% yes as will a few others.

I really do think we are about to enter new era starting from next year, and this is first time I have really felt that way as even after Thiem won US Open in 2020 and Dani won last year I still believed Rafa and Novak would be back with a bang.

I think this might be different and while Rafa and Novak may not be finished winning slams they are really going to have to fight fir them now in a way they haven't before

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

As long as alcaraz wins the French as that’s what matters

 

[Chanwan]

70-80%

That is indeed large. Now I'm intrigued. You're one of the posters, I enjoy reading here. Care to elaborate on your analysis on why you expect the rivalry to be so one-sided that you only give Djokovic a 20-30 % chance to win a single match from here on out?

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

Its great for the sport and will force Djokovic to step up or get stepped on.

Lets play some ball. If Djokovic loses, he loses, but lets just get everyone to the courts so they can play.

Novak is one slam away from taking the top spot again, lets see who is bold enough to shut Novak out of EVERY SINGLE slam over the next five years....Novak has won 4 of the last 6 he has played in, he doesn't even need to come close to that now, one or two and that's it.

Yes.. that's what is needed..

I want to see Novak, Rafa, Sinner and Alcaraz playing eachother in HC slams next year. Time is running out for these match ups to happen.

 

[jl809]

I still definitely lean towards Djokovic.

People act like Alcaraz is miles better than he was earlier in the year but I don’t think he is - he would have beaten Tiafoe, Sinner etc with his Miami/IW/Madrid form. Thing is, at IW he lost to Nadal and the one set he took was in hurricane conditions. In Madrid, he nearly lost to Rustovic. Underestimate the Big 3 at your peril.

If Djokovic goes Wall Mode from the back like he did against Kyrgios at Wimbledon (demonstrating that he very much still has the ability to), it will be interesting to see how Alcaraz copes. He’s got the strokes to hit through Djokovic but he also has portions of matches where he’ll blast a bit and will go long. Plus he has never really faced anyone with Djokovic’s calibre of return on a faster court.

Now Djokovic hasn’t played a single big bo5 match since the AO 21 without going missing for at least 1 set, so the question is, how much does Alcaraz benefit from that. I give him 1-2 sets. But I have Djokovic winning 3.

 

[TennisFan3]

Well they only played once so hardly a large sample size too choose from. Let’s see what happens.

Man - @Kralingen is the biggest anti jinxer ever for Novak. LOL - at saying Novak will NEVER beat Alcaraz in his career.
How is that even possible? People use to say the same for Kygrios - and Novak thrashed him when it mattered.

I don't see any competition for Novak on grass for at least 2-3 years. And even on hardcourts, he would be very very tough to beat. Especially in Australia.
Only Wawrinka and Nadal have beaten Novak consistently at slam level. And none of these next gen (sinner, Alcaraz, Tiafoe) have the mental strength or game to do that.

 

[Kralingen]

That is indeed large. Now I'm intrigued. You're one of the posters, I enjoy reading here. Care to elaborate on your analysis on why you expect the rivalry to be so one-sided that you only give Djokovic a 20-30 % chance to win a single match from here on out?

Djokovic is simply not at his level from the baseline anymore, and is declining very quickly. He is not that good of a player. Going down 2-0 to Sinner was no fluke.

 

[Tennfan123]

He’s a threat to him already.

 

[thrust]

He will be a tiny threat.

Carlos will be a big threat to everyone, IF he stays healthy.

 

[Chanwan]

Djokovic is simply not at his level from the baseline anymore, and is declining very quickly. He is not that good of a player. Going down 2-0 to Sinner was no fluke.

As I wrote above, I agree that Alcaraz has the advantage from the baseline. But what about the Djoko serve+return combo? That's still a pretty great weapon vs. Carlos.
I see the Djoko-matchup as tougher than the Rafa match-up for this very reason.

 

[dapchai]

Djokovic is simply not at his level from the baseline anymore, and is declining very quickly. He is not that good of a player. Going down 2-0 to Sinner was no fluke.

You are not a tennis fan no. 3 I know. But would you like to bet on him losing all four slams next year?

 

[Chanwan]

Important to point out that Carlos’ level this tournament is not close to level of prior top #1 players’ us open runs.

Most dominant players romp through with a dominance ratio in the 2.0 range. Carlos’ level has only been at about 1.2 in this tourney, which would be statistically one of the lowest levels ever for a US Open open winner.

What's Ruud's DR?