Let’s review Nadal’05 and separate the wheat (big titles) from the chaff (match win count, minor titles at Costa Sauipe and Bastad). Also, remember that 79 wins record will never be a reachable target for Alcaraz because of the implementation of 1R byes at many tournaments. Nadal played 17 1R matches in 2005 while Alcaraz will probably wind up in single digit 1R matches. 70 wins is an equitable result for him to match Nadal at 79 in 2005.
If Alcaraz wins Madrid it will be his fourth title of the season by the first week of May, just two weeks behind Nadal’05 pace but in three less tournaments. He’s definitely on pace with a win this week. He also can pick up pace on grass (Nadal 1-2 on grass that year) and the summer HC series (needs a M1K to match Nadal’05).
I seriously doubt he retreats to clay after Wimbledon like Nadal’05 (Umag will not be defended) because he has confidence in potential results on HCs after the USO’20 run and now a SF at IW and a title in Miami. Realistically, he has to be a top 3 favorite at RG and USO, barring any physical setback and especially if the clay wins continue.
Then, of course, we have to hope there are 9 M1Ks this year with a fall Asian tour. That’s looking grim with the situation in Shanghai but fingers are crossed the ATP can do something to fill the void if it remains.
Getting the one slam to match Nadal’05 could be reasonably met. The next question is: can he get two?
I voted “yes.” 1 slam, 4 M1Ks (out of 8), 70 wins, 9 titles above 250. That would be comparing a Red Delicious to a Granny Smith instead of a banana to one of those apples.