Will Alcaraz break the Slam record?

Will Alcaraz break the Slam record?

  • Total voters
    66
This discussion will get even more interesting when Carlitos gets to the age of 27-28 where I believe he'll be an even better player than he is now. His slam count will be at a count where it's easier to make the prediction. Long way long way still...in the immediate future I'm looking forward to him suprassing the likes of agassi in a yers time and Brog in about 2 years. Then the chase turn to sampras ...once he has only the big 3 left in front that's where the race gets interesting.
 
If he remains the establishment’s darling like Fedal, he has a realistic shot at the record. But if even a third of his career is spent being treated the way Nole or Lendl were, he simply has no chance.
 
Hitman said:
...........Alcaraz is basically what happens when you mix Federer, Nadal and Djokovic together.
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Yah man, I concur. He has a skill set that reflects some of the best of the Big 3's abilities to a noteworthy degree. Dude is supremely talented and thus far, able to execute his abilities superbly. All else being equal, he is likely to continue to excel and achieve more success. What that will look like is impossible to tell, and whilst conjecture can be fun, there can be no certainty.

Mind you, my grey cells have had an epiphany! If the dude reflects some of the skills of the Big 3, he could amass : 20 for Fed + 22 for Rafa + 24 for Novak = 66. If this revelation is correct, it would be an underachievement of the highest order for Carlitos to win anything less than 66 slams. And I am too lazy to calculate the Big 3 tally of other titles, but Carlitos must of course also match those. Only then can he be said to be an ATG. Unless of course, the goal posts are changed yet again ....
 
tennis_pro said:
Hes currently sitting at 7 at age 22. 18 to go assuming Djokovic wins no more. What do you think?
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We always think that a young player who has already won a lot will continue without factoring in that we don't know his main opponents in the next 5-10 years yet.
And have a look at players like
- Becker: won his 5th slam a few weeks after having turned 23. Won only one slam after that.
- Wilander: won his 7th and last slam three weeks after his 24th birthday.
- McEnroe: won his 7th and last slam at age 25.

Alcaraz will turn 23 in May - and the clock may be already ticking...
 
SwissMaestro81 said:
We always think that a young player who has already won a lot will continue without factoring in that we don't know his main opponents in the next 5-10 years yet.
And have a look at players like
- Becker: won his 5th slam a few weeks after having turned 23. Won only one slam after that.
- Wilander: won his 7th and last slam three weeks after his 24th birthday.
- McEnroe: won his 7th and last slam at age 25.

Alcaraz will turn 23 in May - and the clock may be already ticking...
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This is key right here. All those guys were absolute phenoms in their teens and early 20's, and then they suddenly declined into non-slam winning form for the rest of their long careers.
 
Neptune said:
If he remains the establishment’s darling like Fedal, he has a realistic shot at the record. But if even a third of his career is spent being treated the way Nole or Lendl were, he simply has no chance.
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Alcaraz would take the cake regardless.
 
Berrettini_Fan said:
Federer would've won 35+ slams if Nadal and Djokovic didn't exist. But I'm sure you would've been fine with that alternate reality.
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Federer probably would have retired in 2008 after winning the CYGS two years in a row in that scenario. lol
 
UnderArmServeOP said:
didn't you say slam record is the most important like 2 weeks ago ?? Djoko fans vex me.
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no i always said that T1 is YE#1, weeks and slams! always was. in my point system it is 100 points for each slam, YE#1 and 50 weeks (apr a year, also 2 p/wek).
but if i have to chose i think that YE#1 is more important and greater achievement. and i said it many times here in many years! and most ATG think the same including fed, sampras and nole!
 
It's 'scary' to think if Alcaraz could manage to win the four grand slams for the next four years, he would still be just 26 and 2 slams away from Djkovic's record. So basically he has a 'head start' at his age of the 'slam race' if things stay the same.

Usually there was an 'up-and comer' "new gen" player every few years, or two at a time in the earlier open era to challenge the current number ones. And the big-3 themselves had each other as rivals. And not sure if the newcomers younger than alcaraz and sinner have proven or the potential to be his next challengers yet.
 
I'd say there's a very good chance right now, but it's too hard to say with any certainty whether there will be someone better (as hard as that is to imagine) come along or if he will burn out early physically, lose motivation
 
GoatNo1 said:
no i always said that T1 is YE#1, weeks and slams! always was. in my point system it is 100 points for each slam, YE#1 and 50 weeks (apr a year, also 2 p/wek).
but if i have to chose i think that YE#1 is more important and greater achievement. and i said it many times here in many years! and most ATG think the same including fed, sampras and nole!
Click to expand...
I guess it's a good thing no one follows your system
 
2 things are likely to stop him.

1. Injury

2. Competition especially in his late 20's/early 30's.

I think he'll get close to 20 but may even fall short, he won't get such an easy 'break' or a very special set of circumstances in his early/mid 30's, and that's if he's still playing by then.

But he'll have the 3-0 vs Djokovic in slam finals and he'll be in the conversation I think in a different overall era.
 
He's never going to have an easier time than now in terms of competition. He needs a 3+ slam year this year to be on target.
 
Musterrific said:
This is key right here. All those guys were absolute phenoms in their teens and early 20's, and then they suddenly declined into non-slam winning form for the rest of their long careers.
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All these guys played in the 80's different context and time . The slam race wasn't a thing. Their immidiate succesors Agassi&Sampras had better longevity. The latter started the whole slam race and his sucessors, the big 3 had even better longevity.

Projecting Carlos' career based on 80's ATGs is a mistake imo.
 
Hitman said:
Yes. I think he does.

Alcaraz is basically what happens when you mix Federer, Nadal and Djokovic together.
Click to expand...

lion-king.gif
 
4UTRMoutet said:
Nadal definitely didn't make it through unscathed, regardless he conquered his own pain.
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For all his injuries, none of them were career altering. There's a reason he never dropped out of the top 10.

If doesn't matter how tough you are, if you end up needing serious surgery, it can completely ruin your career.
 
If he can generally stay healthy and not age "prematurely" (historically late 20s, 30 isn't premature but we've seen the Big 3 push the limits) or simply get burnt out and then get some Slams his 30s. Something will happen that surprises us - a new upstart player or two, an unexpected fallow period (even if relatively brief in the broader picture), an off-court distraction, an injury that isn't disastrous but might keep him out of a Slam or two or cause an unexpected loss - or all of these things. These things have happened to all the greats at some point. And he probably needs some 3-Slam seasons. All of the Big 3 had 3-Slam seasons to really boost totals quickly.

Yes, he's only 22 and already has seven Slams But 18 more Slams is a LOT, no matter how young he is.
 
Covid robbed Djokovic of a few Grand Slam titles (cancellation of Wimbledon 2020 and deportation from the AO 2022). Where do you get the certainty that a similar injustice, caused by a non-tennis factor, will never happen to Alcaraz? Don't you follow the news about what's happening in the Middle East? Alcaraz (and Sinner of course) is not as fortunate as the Big 3 to will live out his peak tennis years under a stable and reliable international order!
 
Climate change, international conflicts, AI takeover, and Extraterrestrial invasions will all shape the next decade or two. Alcaraz will have to navigate much more complex obstacles than injury and competition.
 
Lets not forget that Carlos might need more than 25 slams to break Noles record...

Nole is made 5 out of 5 slams semifinals or finals. It is very possible that he ends up with 25 or 26 slams and that would make Carlos achievement way harder.

Lets not forget that. Nole is still and active player and retire is not in any near future.
 
MeatTornado said:
For all his injuries, none of them were career altering. There's a reason he never dropped out of the top 10.

If doesn't matter how tough you are, if you end up needing serious surgery, it can completely ruin your career.
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In March 2023, Nadal definitively dropped out of the top rankings and was never able to regain his form.
:(
 
DSH said:
In March 2023, Nadal definitively dropped out of the top rankings and was never able to regain his form.
:(
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When he was 36. That's why I said the Big 3 all made it to 36 relatively unscathed, as that's when they all won their final majors.

That's when Nadal's career realistically ended, for Fed it was 38, and Novak is still TBD.
 
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Hitman said:
Yes. I think he does.

Alcaraz is basically what happens when you mix Federer, Nadal and Djokovic together.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately he seems to be more Nadal than the other two in terms of durability.
This has always been his biggest obstacle to a 20+ slam career, injuries, and this particular one might prevent him from even getting to 15 slams.
 
MORE than opponent his body has to sustain for minimum 15 years to surpass 24 slams. .
As he reaches 30 his speed will decline and reflex will start to go down.
Dont believe this medical science stuff.
only Big3 gets benifit from advancement in medical science
For other players medical science did not helped.
 
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