Will Alcaraz keep his #1 ranking position into the end of the year?

Does Alacaraz stay at #1 until the end of the year?

  • Yes

    Votes: 23 54.8%

  • No

    Votes: 19 45.2%
  • Total voters
    42
Tweener

Tweener

Semi-Pro
Alcaraz currently has an 880 point lead over Djokovic. He will lose the 450 points he was defending at Hamburg and Umag over the next two weeks. This will reduce his lead to 430 points.

The summer hard court season will determine the rankings heading into the end of the year. Medvedev isn't defending much but he's pretty far back at this point and has a very slim chance of catching the top 2. This is heating up to be an interesting race into the end of the year!

Alcaraz:
Hamburg and Umag: Defending 450 points (will drop these as he isn't playing these tournaments)
USO: Defending 2,000 points
Cincinnati: Defending 180 points
Canada: Defending 10 points
Paris: Defending 180 points
Basel: Defending 180 points
Astana: Defending 0 points
ATP Finals: Defending 0 points

Total points = 3,000

Djokovic:
USO: Defending 0 points
Cincinnati: Defending 0 points
Canada: Defending 0 points
Paris: Defending 600 points
Basel Tel Aviv: Defending 250 points
Astana: Defending 500 points
ATP Finals: Defending 1,500 points

Total points = 2,850
 
Last edited:
Depends how motivated Djokovic is. I think Alcaraz will play more events till the end of the year and there's not much in their points totals for 2023.
 
If Djoko doesn’t get it back after the USO then he won’t at all. Since Djoko didn’t play Cincy, Canada, USO last year, it’s likely he gets it back after the USO unless Carlitos continues dominance.

The points race is very close for the season—might come down to Tour Finals.
 
I don't think Djokovic is going to bother preparing 100% for the non-Slam tournaments, or chase the #1, so I think Carlos is going to get it. Though Djokovic might get it for a few weeks after the US Open, but Carlos will get it back after that, by playing better than Novak in the post-US Open season.
 
DSH said:
Alcaraz and Medvedev will dispute number 1 at the end of the year.
:)
Click to expand...
Lol he's 3,155 points back now and is defending 1,490 through the end of the year. Certainly not impossible as he isn't defending as much as the other two and he is a self-proclaimed hard court specialist. But he's going to be facing either of the top 2 in the semis at all the big events, and then probably again in the finals. I can't see it happening, but the octopus could certainly spice things up with some big results in NA.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DSH
I will qualify my 'yes' as, I don't think that is the bigger picture goal for him so he may pick and choose to let points slip to keep a balance in training and competing.
 
Tweener said:
Lol he's 3,155 points back now and is defending 1,490 through the end of the year. Certainly not impossible as he isn't defending as much as the other two and he is a self-proclaimed hard court specialist. But he's going to be facing either of the top 2 in the semis at all the big events, and then probably again in the finals. I can't see it happening, but the octopus could certainly spice things up with some big results in NA.
Click to expand...
You get confused, the only thing that matters is the so-called race of champions, in short, the points accumulated so far and the one born in Murcia takes around 1,500 points over Muscovite.
Medvedev's preferred period is about to begin and it will be he and not Djokovic who will fight the world number 1 with Alcaraz at the end of the season.
8-B
 
Djokovic has huge chance to get the number 1 ranking if he wins USOpen or Alcaraz doesn't win it. Anything can happen in this 2 months. If he doesn't win number 1 after USOpen, he won't win it for a long time.
 
DSH said:
You get confused, the only thing that matters is the so-called race of champions, in short, the points accumulated so far and the one born in Murcia takes around 1,500 points over Muscovite.
Medvedev's preferred period is about to begin and it will be he and not Djokovic who will fight the world number 1 with Alcaraz at the end of the season.
8-B
Click to expand...
Where will the sinner finish in the race this year?
 
  • Like
Reactions: DSH
I think Carlos will defend USO and be the year end #1 but since their points are so close and Carlos defends more points prior to USO, he might drop to #2 for a few weeks
 
Tweener said:
Alcaraz currently has an 880 point lead over Djokovic. He will lose the 450 points he was defending at Hamburg and Umag over the next two weeks. This will reduce his lead to 430 points.

The summer hard court season will determine the rankings heading into the end of the year. Medvedev isn't defending much but he's pretty far back at this point and has a very slim chance of catching the top 2. This is heating up to be an interesting race into the end of the year!

Alcaraz:
Hamburg and Umag: Defending 450 points (will drop these as he isn't playing these tournaments)
USO: Defending 2,000 points
Cincinnati: Defending 180 points
Canada: Defending 10 points
Paris: Defending 180 points
Basel: Defending 180 points
Astana: Defending 0 points
ATP Finals: Defending 0 points

Total points = 3,000

Djokovic:
USO: Defending 0 points
Cincinnati: Defending 0 points
Canada: Defending 0 points
Paris: Defending 600 points
Basel Tel Aviv: Defending 250 points
Astana: Defending 500 points
ATP Finals: Defending 1,500 points

Total points = 2,850
Click to expand...
If he is who they say he is, this will be a walk in the park.

He will reach every single final or SF of these tourneys
 
I think his era has begun. He should be able to stay at no.1 for a long time from now. One thing he should be careful with, though, is scheduling. He cannot participate in too many tournaments. He is only 20 and you don't want to put too much pressure on young, still developing body until it fully matures. He needs to schedule carefully until he is 23. Normally, a player of his age will be in the process of coming up through the rankings, expected to lose early rounds more often than he is now. That will give them more time to rest and recuperate, but it will be easy for Carlitos to get into a schedule that's too hectic, just thinking he is still young and can handle anything physically. In baseball, young pitchers are looked after by limiting the innings pitched because their body is still developing and vulnerable. CA's style is very taxing on his body, because he chases after everything. He certainly needs to limit the amount of matches played per year by looking at average matches played by players of his own age. This could the the reason why early bloomers sometimes disappear quickly from tour. Hewitt was a young no.1 and we know what happened to his body.
 
Tweener said:
Lol he's 3,155 points back now and is defending 1,490 through the end of the year. Certainly not impossible as he isn't defending as much as the other two and he is a self-proclaimed hard court specialist. But he's going to be facing either of the top 2 in the semis at all the big events, and then probably again in the finals. I can't see it happening, but the octopus could certainly spice things up with some big results in NA.
Click to expand...
The Poster you responded to mentioned “at the end of the year” – how many points one is defending has nothing to do with the end of the year. Medvedev is 1,500 points back in the race and it’s possible by year’s end he‘s competing for the #1. Now he won’t becuse he’s not good enough, but much is currently defending doesn’t have anything to do with that
 
ghostofMecir said:
The Poster you responded to mentioned “at the end of the year” – how many points one is defending has nothing to do with the end of the year. Medvedev is 1,500 points back in the race and it’s possible by year’s end he‘s competing for the #1. Now he won’t becuse he’s not good enough, but much is currently defending doesn’t have anything to do with that
Click to expand...
He said that "Medvedev and Alcaraz will dispute #1 at the end of the year". I understand the difference between the current rankings and the race. Currently, he's 1,555 behind Alcaraz and 825 behind Djokovic in the race. How many points they're defending has a very significant impact on where they'll land in the rankings "at the end of the year". I'm not sure what the point is there. He isn't good enough, but he's also pretty far behind.

For example, Meddy is defending his R16 result from USO22 which gave him 180pts he's holding for his ranking. Ignoring all other tournaments for the sake of clarity, let's say both Medvedev and Djokovic lose in the semis this year which will get them each 720 points. Medvedev will net 540 new points on his ranking points total (because the 180 from last year will drop). Djokovic gains 720 net new points due to defending 0. Djokovic has now gained 180 points on Medvevev in their ranking points total despite them having achieved the same results at USO. Now let's say Alcaraz loses in the F, he'll lose 800 points. In this scenario, Djokovic becomes number 1, Alcaraz 2, and Medvedev is still 3. If Rune wins, he'll net 1,910 points because he's only defending 90 points from last year, and he would take the #3 spot from Medvedev (but he would still be behind Alcaraz and Djokovic). That's why what they're defending is so impactful on where their ranking ends up "at the end of the year". I'm pretty sure you already knew that, though.
 
Last edited:
Whats the status of year end #1 race now after Djokovic won the Cincinnati title, and if Djokovic plays China Open and Shanghai M1000 ?
 
hendrasdr said:
Whats the status of year end #1 race now after Djokovic won the Cincinnati title, and if Djokovic plays China Open and Shanghai M1000 ?
Click to expand...
Djokovic will regain the #1 spot after the USO as he defends no points while Carlos defends 2000. Unless he loses in the first round which just isn’t going to happen.

After that Carlos has the long term advantage as he only defends 360 until the end of the year while Djokovic defends 2850.
 
hendrasdr said:
Whats the status of year end #1 race now after Djokovic won the Cincinnati title, and if Djokovic plays China Open and Shanghai M1000 ?
Click to expand...
Djokovic is right around 500 points behind Alcaraz in the race now. Whatever Alcaraz does for the rest of the season, Djokovic needs to better it by about 515 points to end the year number one. Certainly doable. US Open could determine a lot, and we'll see how much either of them plays in the fall.
 
tudwell said:
Djokovic is right around 500 points behind Alcaraz in the race now. Whatever Alcaraz does for the rest of the season, Djokovic needs to better it by about 515 points to end the year number one. Certainly doable. US Open could determine a lot, and we'll see how much either of them plays in the fall.
Click to expand...
Live rankings only show a 20 point difference: CA 9815 - ND 9795. Djokovic will be #1 after USO so it depends on what the margin is and how much he decides to play before the YEC.
 
Open Stance said:
Live rankings only show a 20 point difference: CA 9815 - ND 9795. Djokovic will be #1 after USO so it depends on what the margin is and how much he decides to play before the YEC.
Click to expand...
It's the ATP race to Turin points that matter - Carlos is 510 points ahead for the calendar year and that is what determines who will be #1 in November after the ATP finals are completed. Carlos is in excellent position to wind up #1 again this year and I think he will. He will temporarily lose the #1 ranking (unless Djokovic isn't able to play at the U.S. Open for one reason or another, or loses his first round match, Djokovic will regain #1 after the completion of the U.S. Open) - but Djokovic is defending a ton of points after that when he returned to the tour after the U.S. Open and Carlos is defending few points as he was injured and didn't play much after last year's U.S. Open - this will help Carlos to regain #1 and end up as the year's #1 for a second year in a row. They are the only two who really have any real chance to achieve it. I hope it will be Carlos who prevails.
 
Alcaraz will need to up his end of the year game if he wants to be a consistent n.1 after Nole retires.

I don't know if it is because of injuries or he plainly just sucks indoors like the Nadal but it isn't looking like he is going to be the next dominator if he keeps with these issues.

Do not be surprised if Sinner or some other player ends up the one Novak passes the torch in the future, this time for good.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

G
  • Poll Poll
Will Federer lose the no.2 spot before the year is up?
Replies
17
Views
865
dr325i
dr325i
roysid
How the No. 1 ranking will play out this year
Replies
0
Views
324
roysid
roysid
N
Will Nadal retain the world #1 in 2011?
Replies
25
Views
2K
PrinceMoron
PrinceMoron
TripleATeam
Medvedev's Play for #1
2 3 4
Replies
161
Views
9K
Sabrina
Sabrina
J
The rankings of men's 1, 2 and 3, and where they're at
Replies
18
Views
2K
jukka1970
J
Back
Top