Will Carlos maintain his lead and win his first YE#1?

[James P]

Looking pretty bleak that anyone will catch him this season. Nadal probably will have a limited schedule, possibly won't play at all. That means the potential 1600 point lead on Ruud, 1800 on Tsitsipas are the only two likely technically "in the race." Brutal point gap to overcome. He already set the record for youngest #1, could set the record for youngest YE#1.

Race Rank	Name	Age	Country	Race Points
1	✓ Carlos Alcaraz	19	ESP	6460
2	✓ Rafael Nadal	36	ESP	5810
3	✓ Casper Ruud	23	NOR	4885
4	✓ Stefanos Tsitsipas	24	GRE	4630
5	Daniil Medvedev	26	RUS	3375
6	Andrey Rublev	24	RUS	3055
7	Félix Auger-Aliassime	22	CAN	2860
8	Alexander Zverev	25	GER	2700
9	Hubert Hurkacz	25	POL	2545
10	Taylor Fritz	24	USA	2385
11	Cameron Norrie	27	GBR	2320
12	Pablo Carreño Busta	31	ESP	2270
13	Matteo Berrettini	26	ITA	2225
14	Jannik Sinner	21	ITA	2220
15	Novak Djoković	35	SRB	1970

 

[DSH]

Looking pretty bleak that anyone will catch him this season. Nadal probably will have a limited schedule, possibly won't play at all. That means the potential 1600 point lead on Ruud, 1800 on Tsitsipas are the only two likely technically "in the race." Brutal point gap to overcome. He already set the record for youngest #1, could set the record for youngest YE#1.

Race Rank	Name	Age	Country	Race Points
1	✓ Carlos Alcaraz	19	ESP	6460
2	✓ Rafael Nadal	36	ESP	5810
3	✓ Casper Ruud	23	NOR	4885
4	✓ Stefanos Tsitsipas	24	GRE	4630
5	Daniil Medvedev	26	RUS	3375
6	Andrey Rublev	24	RUS	3055
7	Félix Auger-Aliassime	22	CAN	2860
8	Alexander Zverev	25	GER	2700
9	Hubert Hurkacz	25	POL	2545
10	Taylor Fritz	24	USA	2385
11	Cameron Norrie	27	GBR	2320
12	Pablo Carreño Busta	31	ESP	2270
13	Matteo Berrettini	26	ITA	2225
14	Jannik Sinner	21	ITA	2220
15	Novak Djoković	35	SRB	1970

With the Wimbledon points Nadal would still be number 1 in the race and Djokovic number five.
But it seems that Alcaraz will achieve another record of earliness.

 

[Djokovic2011]

With the Wimbledon points Nadal would still be number 1 in the race and Djokovic number five.
But it seems that Alcaraz will achieve another record of earliness.

Alcaraz would still be #1 in the race even if the Wimbledon points were counted.

 

[ND-13]

The first of many... I think he will have 10 YE No 1 when all is said and done.

 

[Kralingen]

Yep he’ll take it. The question is whether anyone ever takes the #1 from him again in the next few years…

 

[Federer_pilon]

Looking pretty bleak that anyone will catch him this season. Nadal probably will have a limited schedule, possibly won't play at all. That means the potential 1600 point lead on Ruud, 1800 on Tsitsipas are the only two likely technically "in the race." Brutal point gap to overcome. He already set the record for youngest #1, could set the record for youngest YE#1.

Race Rank	Name	Age	Country	Race Points
1	✓ Carlos Alcaraz	19	ESP	6460
2	✓ Rafael Nadal	36	ESP	5810
3	✓ Casper Ruud	23	NOR	4885
4	✓ Stefanos Tsitsipas	24	GRE	4630
5	Daniil Medvedev	26	RUS	3375
6	Andrey Rublev	24	RUS	3055
7	Félix Auger-Aliassime	22	CAN	2860
8	Alexander Zverev	25	GER	2700
9	Hubert Hurkacz	25	POL	2545
10	Taylor Fritz	24	USA	2385
11	Cameron Norrie	27	GBR	2320
12	Pablo Carreño Busta	31	ESP	2270
13	Matteo Berrettini	26	ITA	2225
14	Jannik Sinner	21	ITA	2220
15	Novak Djoković	35	SRB	1970

At his age he will probably play like 10 more tournaments until the end of the year, so I don't think anyone will catch him.

 

[The Guru]

Yep he’ll take it. The question is whether anyone ever takes the #1 from him again in the next few years…

I think Carlos has a better chance of climbing high up the number 1 all time leaderboards (YE and weeks) than slams. 6 YE 1s seems pretty achievable.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

Probably. Nadal is probably done for the year... And Ruud? Indoors year end? LOL!!!! What a trainwreck

 

[Kralingen]

I think Carlos has a better chance of climbing high up the number 1 all time leaderboards (YE and weeks) than slams. 6 YE 1s seems pretty achievable.

Exactly it’s just the perfect storm for him. Look Nadal and Djoker are still favored at RG/Wimby even I’ll admit that. But neither guy takes Masters seriously and Nadal is going to pick up some injury that prevents him from playing.

They’ll peak for Slams and be dangerous there but no chance will they be playing flat out for 70 matches per year like they did in their 20s.

Carlos is good on all surfaces and imo has a very high base level in the sense that his explosiveness and shotmaking are just too much for most players on tour, so QFs are pretty much bare minimum at most tournaments. Anyways he’s just going to inflate his resume to absurd levels. Only Sinner can stop him.

 

[DSH]

Alcaraz would still be #1 in the race even if the Wimbledon points were counted.

You're right, I forgot about the tiny 180 points that Alcaraz would have added.

 

[ND-13]

Exactly it’s just the perfect storm for him. Look Nadal and Djoker are still favored at RG/Wimby even I’ll admit that. But neither guy takes Masters seriously and Nadal is going to pick up some injury that prevents him from playing.

They’ll peak for Slams and be dangerous there but no chance will they be playing flat out for 70 matches per year like they did in their 20s.

Carlos is good on all surfaces and imo has a very high base level in the sense that his explosiveness and shotmaking are just too much for most players on tour, so QFs are pretty much bare minimum at most tournaments. Anyways he’s just going to inflate his resume to absurd levels. Only Sinner can stop him.

I feel Alcaraz will be a threat at all 4 majors. He lost to Zverev by a whisker . Given the way he played this clay season, I wouldnt put it past him to beat Rafa and/or Djoker at FO.

As regards Wimbledon, he is good at the net /volleys , not that you need it anymore on grass. He can play well there too.

Everything hinges a little bit more on his serve which is what JCF will work with him this off season.

 

[travlerajm]

Updated Live Rankings:

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

We need to see some great high level matches though and outside of Sinner, who is going to give him great matches once he gets a little older and primed? The Big 3 at least gave us some GOAT matches. Whats Ruud, Fritz, Tiafoe going to? Yea.. NO!! THis could be a problem as the talent level... Realllyy drops off after Sinner/Carlos. When Casper Ruud is the "best of the rest" you got a problem

 

[travlerajm]

We need to see some great high level matches though and outside of Sinner, who is going to give him great matches once he gets a little older and primed? The Big 3 at least gave us some GOAT matches. Whats Ruud, Fritz, Tiafoe going to? Yea.. NO!! THis could be a problem as the talent level... Realllyy drops off after Sinner/Carlos. When Casper Ruud is the "best of the rest" you got a problem

There’s always fading Med, limping Zed, and washed bus.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

We need to see some great high level matches though and outside of Sinner, who is going to give him great matches once he gets a little older and primed? The Big 3 at least gave us some GOAT matches. Whats Ruud, Fritz, Tiafoe going to? Yea.. NO!! THis could be a problem as the talent level... Realllyy drops off after Sinner/Carlos. When Casper Ruud is the "best of the rest" you got a problem

But Ruud won the 2nd Set 6-2 and had Set Points to win the 3rd Set 7-5, and only won 5 less points than Alcaraz in the entire match despite it being a 4-setter
Ruud almost owned this forum today, just needed to convert a Set Point and the USO title is probably all his!

 

[The Guru]

Exactly it’s just the perfect storm for him. Look Nadal and Djoker are still favored at RG/Wimby even I’ll admit that. But neither guy takes Masters seriously and Nadal is going to pick up some injury that prevents him from playing.

They’ll peak for Slams and be dangerous there but no chance will they be playing flat out for 70 matches per year like they did in their 20s.

Carlos is good on all surfaces and imo has a very high base level in the sense that his explosiveness and shotmaking are just too much for most players on tour, so QFs are pretty much bare minimum at most tournaments. Anyways he’s just going to inflate his resume to absurd levels. Only Sinner can stop him.

I honestly would favor Carlos pretty heavily at RG for next year. Another year of wear on the body for Nadal and another year of growth for Carlos and the physical gap on the most physical surface will be enormous. Carlos's level was almost good enough this year and now with the confidence as world number 1 and a slam champion. I'm taking him as my early pick for sure. Nadal was struggling mightily with Zverev and FAA Carlos will be better and Nadal likely worse. But yes the conclusion is that it seems there are no reasonable challengers for Carlos's throne unless Novak somehow pulls out both AO/W then he might challenge him,

I still think it's too soon on all the stuff we're predicting though I've been super high on him from the start. You just never know who'll come out of the woodworks and while I anticipate he will seperate himself from the field at some point he hasn't yet in my eyes. I still think he's vulnerable to all the top guys on any given day especially on quicker surfaces.

 

[Sudacafan]

With the Wimbledon points Nadal would still be number 1 in the race and Djokovic number five.
But it seems that Alcaraz will achieve another record of earliness.

If Djokovic had played this year’s AO and USO, he would have won with a 100% of certainty, and it’s him who would be the number 1, rendering all of these inane discussions useless.

 

[tennisandtennis]

If Djokovic had played this year’s AO and USO, he would have won with a 100% of certainty, and it’s him who would be the number 1, rendering all of these inane discussions useless.

Lol there ain’t no 100% certainty about it, I thought he was going to crush Medvedev in USO and his body just didn’t show up. The guy is a racquet god but even gods have bad days in the tennis world.

 

[BGod]

We've seen Alcaraz bust before, City has a glimmer chance. Rafa technically controls his own fate as him playing and doing better at Paris and WTF he'd overtake Alcaraz.

Alcaraz would still be #1 in the race even if the Wimbledon points were counted.

110 point difference being negligible.

 

[juanparty]

The stupid wimbledon ruins it all, Rafa will be the number 1, this season is really strange

 

[Federer_pilon]

The stupid wimbledon ruins it all, Rafa will be the number 1, this season is really strange

I think even with points from Wimbledon, Alcaraz probably still ends up #1 at the end of the year. It's almost certain he will play many more tournaments than Nadal after the USO.

 

[juanparty]

I think even with points from Wimbledon, Alcaraz probably still ends up #1 at the end of the year. It's almost certain he will play many more tournaments than Nadal after the USO.

Yeah, but Rafa will be the number one tomorrow at 36 yo

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Yep he’ll take it. The question is whether anyone ever takes the #1 from him again in the next few years…

Novavaz next year

 

[GabeT]

Yeah, but Rafa will be the number one tomorrow at 36 yo

Don’t think so. Nadal would have added 720 points from Wimbledon but he’s 900 points behind Carlos

 

[big ted]

looks like alcaraz, Ruud, and Medvedev, and sinner will be battling it out for the next few

 

[dapchai]

Alcaraz will hold the #1 spot for 400+ consecutive weeks from now on. Mark my words.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Alcaraz will hold the #1 spot for 400+ consecutive weeks from now on. Mark my words.

I don't see who can take it lol. #1 really is a matter of timing and circumstances, smh

 

[dapchai]

I don't see who can take it lol. #1 really is a matter of timing and circumstances, smh

That's why I never regarded this #1 spot as high as slams and YE#1. But holding the top spot for at least 52 weeks in a row (about a year) would do it for me.

I don't like Carlitos's delayed grunts and constant fist pumpings either, but his game is a sight to behold. Let's hope he becomes more mature and acts more calmly in the next couple of years.

 

[MichaelNadal]

That's why I never regarded this #1 spot as high as slams and YE#1. But holding the top spot for at least 52 weeks in a row (about a year) would do it for me.

I don't like Carlitos's delayed grunts and constant fist pumpings either, but his game is a sight to behold. Let's hope he becomes more mature and acts more calmly in the next couple of years.

 

[chjtennis]

Yep he’ll take it. The question is whether anyone ever takes the #1 from him again in the next few years…

Djokovic may have a chance if vaccine rules are lifted. Otherwise, Alcaraz looks good to stay there for a few years.

 

[Whisper]

If Djokovic had played this year’s AO and USO, he would have won with a 100% of certainty, and it’s him who would be the number 1, rendering all of these inane discussions useless.

Nobody will ever know for sure so no point talking about it. What we do know is Djokovic forfeited his right to play certain tournaments by refusing to take a vaccine billions of people took with no issues. That’s his right and he said he was prepared to accept the consequences. There is no more to discuss. The king is dead, long live the king!