Will Fed finish year end #1?

borg25

borg25

New User
I think Fed is the favourite to finish year end number #1 because,

Every tournament he enters is extra points; no points to defend
Nadal has the same; no points to defend, but his results are not that good
at the US Open or faster indoor courts.
Fed is about 900 points behind Nadal. Murray has a ton of points to defend so will
definitely lose the number 1 spot, unless his form changes dramatically.

It depends on Fed's energy levels. He will play cincinatti I assume. But what about Montreal?

A lot depends on how deep Nadal and Fed go at the US Open. But still a lot of
points to pick up in the indoor season and WTF which is 1500 for the winner.

Go Fed for #20!!
 
borg25 said:
I think Fed is the favourite to finish year end number #1 because,

Every tournament he enters is extra points; no points to defend
Nadal has the same; no points to defend, but his results are not that good
at the US Open or faster indoor courts.
Fed is about 900 points behind Nadal. Murray has a ton of points to defend so will
definitely lose the number 1 spot, unless his form changes dramatically.

It depends on Fed's energy levels. He will play cincinatti I assume. But what about Montreal?

A lot depends on how deep Nadal and Fed go at the US Open. But still a lot of
points to pick up in the indoor season and WTF which is 1500 for the winner.

Go Fed for #20!!
Click to expand...

I agree with all, but of course no guarantees. Nadal was playing extremely well and Federer can also lose again to Nadal on hard!
But I would bet some money it's gonna be the 2 of them in the top spots going into 2018! Any news on Djokovic & Murray reg the injury breaks, comeback plans?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Defending points is irrelevant now, when all you have to care about is the race points for the YE#1. Here is the race, as it stands:

1. Rafael Nadal - 7095
2. Roger Federer - 6545

3. Dominic Thiem - 3345
4. Stan Wawrinka - 3150
5. Marin Čilić - 2905
6. Alexander Zverev - 2710
7. Novak Djokovic - 2585
8. Andy Murray - 2290

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that nobody but Nadal or Federer is ending the year as the #1 player. 550 points separate them. Considering their history and their mileages this season so far, I make Federer the favorite, but he'll either need to win a couple of big titles or show up regularly at tournaments to be able to do it, assuming Nadal plays a full season. Otherwise, Nadal might just make a sufficient push to get that spot.
 
Hopefully not, I want a 4th YE # 1, move past 200 weeks at # 1 and a 3rd US Open title for Rafa. Seems greedy but the US Open title will probably take care of the rest on its own and Rafa is in good hard court form so it is possible

Enviado desde mi E6853 mediante Tapatalk
 
The_18th_Slam said:
Considering their history and their mileages this season so far, I make Federer the favorite, but he'll either need to win a couple of big titles or show up regularly at tournaments to be able to do it, assuming Nadal plays a full season. Otherwise, Nadal might just make a sufficient push to get that spot.
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If so, Nadal should definetely play Hamburg. But he refused to do so, as was announced a few days ago. That would have been 500 easy points, no doubt about it.

So it seems as if he is concerned about his health again. Because I don’t think it’s possible that he just isn’t interested in being #1. Federer on the other hand will play a full schedule until the year ends, so likely he’ll play even more tournaments than Rafa from now on.

Furthermore he is usually better in the 2nd half anyway. For me he is the big favourite to end the year on top.
 
Worth noting that in an interview after Wimbledon Federer kind of hinted that getting back to #1 even for one week would satisfy him. He did say YE#1 would be "bigger again" but I'm guessing he's weighing up how much of a push and effort that would take and might be content with being the oldest ever to be ranked #1 and take anything else as a bonus (provided he actually gets there in the first place).
 
HowsItGoin said:
Worth noting that in an interview after Wimbledon Federer kind of hinted that getting back to #1 even for one week would satisfy him. He did say YE#1 would be "bigger again" but I'm guessing he's weighing up how much of a push and effort that would take and might be content with being the oldest ever to be ranked #1 and take anything else as a bonus (provided he actually gets there in the first place).
Click to expand...
Interestingly for Federer, he is more likely to get to #1 at the end of the year than he perhaps ever will again. I think he's just looking for the satisfaction of being considered the best in the world again more than any records or numbers, but from a records-perspective being the YE#1 will do him so much more good than being #1 at any other time. Because he will not only tie Sampras in the only major standalone record he has left, but he'll also get a bunch of weeks at #1 for basically free during the off season.

All that said, I don't think Federer should even think about the rankings until after the US Open. That's the most important thing for him this year.
 
For his fans sake, it might be best if he tries his best but Nadal just pips him at the 11th hour

Some of Federer's comments - after Australian, Halle, Wimbledon - as well as these breaks he feels he needs, hints at him possibly calling it a day pretty soon

Good to get a kick in the nuts if it keeps him on the tour awhile longer

If Federer does it, it'll be a gap of regaining year end #1 after 8 years - which is staggering and he'll join Nadal in regaining it twice

If Nadal, it'll be 3 years and record extending third time he's regained it

Also, poetically symmetrical. Nadal has previously overrun Federer and Djokovic to regain #1 - he can make it 3/3 with Murray

---

Hoping for a great race. Federer's the better player on the surfaces they'll be playing on but I'm also expecting Nadal to do better than he has for many years.

Like Fed, he's upped the ante on his backhand, is playing more aggressively than usual and Wimby would have reminded him of the need to

And who knows how much each guys health will be a factor
 
Well if he skips Montreal I'm supremely confident that he won't touch number 1 again, because Nadal will win there. I also believe Nadal will be strong this hard court season, possibly winning Beijing too.
 
I think Nadal has the better chance simply because he'll be playing more events. He's probably playing Montreal, Cincinnati, the US Open, Beijing, Shanghai, Basel, Paris,and the WTF (=8 events). Federer is sure for Cincinnati, the US Open, Shanghai, Basel, and the WTF (=5 events). If Nadal has a decent showing in most events, combined with his current lead of 550 (nearly a Masters Final), he'll end the year #1. Nadal will be pulling out of events from the above 8 only if he goes deep/wins some of them, so he is not going to relent with his schedule.
 
Short answer: yes.

There's a longer one, too, but it basically boils down to the same, so why bother? ;)

At this stage, Nadal's only chance is basically to pad up his schedule with tons of tournaments and win the ones Federer doesn't enter (Montreal, Beijing, and Valencia come to mind). And even that may not be enough. He was about 3,000 points ahead after RG, there's just 550 left now... and we're entering the part of the year that has traditionally been the worst for him and the best for Federer. Even were he 2,000 points ahead, he still wouldn't be the favourite, imho. 550 is nothing, there's too much tennis to be played yet.
 
NBP said:
Well if he skips Montreal I'm supremely confident that he won't touch number 1 again, because Nadal will win there. I also believe Nadal will be strong this hard court season, possibly winning Beijing too.
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Federer could win Cincy and USO and the no.1 ranking will be in the bag. That's actually all he needs to do to get to it.

After that the WTF might suffice the finish no.1 at the end of the year.

Basically Fed needs the USO and the no.1 ranking will be his. With 3 slams to Nadal's 1, I cannot see Fed not finishing no.1.
 
mike danny said:
Federer could win Cincy and USO and the no.1 ranking will be in the bag. That's actually all he needs to do to get to it.

After that the WTF might suffice the finish no.1 at the end of the year.

Basically Fed needs the USO and the no.1 ranking will be his. With 3 slams to Nadal's 1, I cannot see Fed not finishing no.1.
Click to expand...
You're right, he could by winning the Cincy and the US. However, Nadal could also gain a lot of confidence by winning Montreal. He'd then be 1,500 points ahead, and could easily go deep at the US. He's also got a great record in Beijing. I remember three things: 2010, 2012 and 2015. 2010 because Nadal could sustain nice form at the end of the year, we're talking deep in New York, a Masters title, final in London etc. 2012 because Fed could very, very easily have a downer at the USO after winning Wimbledon. And 2015 because Fed skipped Montreal and had two bad bad losses in Shanghai and Paris, so he gained practically no points at 3 of the last 4 Masters events. So it's going to be tight, but I feel Nadal will not fall away the way people are saying; he's better on faster hard than slower hard, and look how he did earlier this year. I have zero clue how playing Canada could lessen Fed's chances for #20. He should go there and basically use it as practise, gain some points, keep in the routine of match play and I'm sure he'd be fine.
 
NBP said:
You're right, he could by winning the Cincy and the US. However, Nadal could also gain a lot of confidence by winning Montreal. He'd then be 1,500 points ahead, and could easily go deep at the US. He's also got a great record in Beijing. I remember three things: 2010, 2012 and 2015. 2010 because Nadal could sustain nice form at the end of the year, we're talking deep in New York, a Masters title, final in London etc. 2012 because Fed could very, very easily have a downer at the USO after winning Wimbledon. And 2015 because Fed skipped Montreal and had two bad bad losses in Shanghai and Paris, so he gained practically no points at 3 of the last 4 Masters events. So it's going to be tight, but I feel Nadal will not fall away the way people are saying; he's better on faster hard than slower hard, and look how he did earlier this year. I have zero clue how playing Canada could lessen Fed's chances for #20. He should go there and basically use it as practise, gain some points, keep in the routine of match play and I'm sure he'd be fine.
Click to expand...
If Fed goes deep in Both Montreal and Cincy, it could hurt his USO chances. Remember 2010 and 2014.
 
frinton said:
I agree with all, but of course no guarantees. Nadal was playing extremely well and Federer can also lose again to Nadal on hard!
But I would bet some money it's gonna be the 2 of them in the top spots going into 2018! Any news on Djokovic & Murray reg the injury breaks, comeback plans?


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Click to expand...
Fedr won't be losing to Nad on hard this year.
 
I think Fed has all this wrapped up by years end. However if Fed does end the year #1, it'll be interesting to see how long he can hold #1.
 
MajesticMoose said:
I think Fed has all this wrapped up by years end. However if Fed does end the year #1, it'll be interesting to see how long he can hold #1.
Click to expand...
Probably not long. He'll be defending 4000 points in the first three big tournaments of the year. I guess the question is if he can get it back again after the clay season of 2018.

Assuming Federer end the year as the #1, which is far from a guarantee.
 
If federer finishes #1 in 2017, he could easily keep it until Wimbledon if he really wants, but just playing on clay. He has ZERO points to defend there.
 
deBroglie said:
I think Nadal has the better chance simply because he'll be playing more events. He's probably playing Montreal, Cincinnati, the US Open, Beijing, Shanghai, Basel, Paris,and the WTF (=8 events). Federer is sure for Cincinnati, the US Open, Shanghai, Basel, and the WTF (=5 events). If Nadal has a decent showing in most events, combined with his current lead of 550 (nearly a Masters Final), he'll end the year #1. Nadal will be pulling out of events from the above 8 only if he goes deep/wins some of them, so he is not going to relent with his schedule.
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Good points on the amount of tournaments, but I doubt Rafa will be playing all 8. He's played 54 matches already this year, Fed's only on 33.
limmt said:
If federer finishes #1 in 2017, he could easily keep it until Wimbledon if he really wants, but just playing on clay. He has ZERO points to defend there in the first place.
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Nope, he has 4000 points to defend in the first 3-4 months of the year. That's a big load. Of course he can do well and keep it, but it is by no means guaranteed (that is, if he gets there).
The_18th_Slam said:
Interestingly for Federer, he is more likely to get to #1 at the end of the year than he perhaps ever will again. I think he's just looking for the satisfaction of being considered the best in the world again more than any records or numbers, but from a records-perspective being the YE#1 will do him so much more good than being #1 at any other time. Because he will not only tie Sampras in the only major standalone record he has left, but he'll also get a bunch of weeks at #1 for basically free during the off season.

All that said, I don't think Federer should even think about the rankings until after the US Open. That's the most important thing for him this year.
Click to expand...
That is indeed the most important thing for the remainder of the year and if he wins the US Open, the ranking should take care of itself. And even if it doesn't he'll be considered the "real" no. 1 as 3 slams to 1 will be too big a difference in the biggest tournaments.
 
Its very possible. Right now hes only trailing in the race by 500 points in a very clear 2nd with Thiem currently at third but over 3,000 points behind Fed. If Fed hadn't skipped the clay season, he'd probably be leading the race right now even if he didn't win a single title or even make a final. Heck he might even be #1 right now because he's only 1200 points off the top spot which relatively speaking is not difficult to make up. Unless someone comes alive or maybe Murray royally wakes up, its a 2 man race at this point.

The upcoming stretch much favors Fed, so its likely. But again, if Fed really is going to choose a selective schedule, he needs to do VERY well at every event he chooses to enter and hope Rafa doesn't maintain the lead with a sheer volume approach. The US Open may well tell the tale. If Fed wins it, he should get it...if Rafa wins it..waters get Muddy. If a 3rd guy wins it from those 2 well, that actually helps Fed. We just have to wait and see.
 
Knowing Roger, he won't let an opportunity to break records and make history (oldest no.1 and year end no. 1) slip. He is extremely close to it as well, just needs a healthy US Open and a standard HC Masters and indoor end of season. Basically, he needs to enter all Masters and Basel, outperform Rafa at the Open and then WTF should get him past the line. My guess is Rafa will crash out a couple of times, especially indoor where he is always susceptible to an early loss; as for US Open, it will probably take a big-hitter on form to stop him, so it all depends on the draw. Could easily have a situation like last year where both meet in the finals of 2-3 tournaments and slug it out.

In my opinion Rog won't skip Montreal, his pattern so far has been to lose early in the first tournament before or after the GS (Hopman Cup to Zverev, Dubai and Donskoy, Stuttgart and Haas - all really tight losses though). It would seem an unnecessary risk to crash out of Cincy (with its lightning fast surface you can lose to almost anyone) and not play Montreal before the US Open. I can't imagine he is really tired from the grass season anyway, he barely played a long match. Now, Rafa can't possibly play all 8-9 tournaments till the end of season, he'll burn out. On the other hand, if he doesn't get the no. 1 spot soon, he'll need to do superbly well next season to defend the points and fend off new rivals like Nole (nothing to defend in 2018).

Granted, given both guys age one of them could get injured and ruin this very interesting end of season, but let's rather hope they battle it out, whether against each other or the field. With the very unfortunate lack of young guns making a real step up (aside from Thiem and Sascha somewhat), this is as good as it got in the last 4-5 years.
 
Numb & Number. 1. I could see it happening. As for where he might re-take it prior to season's end... any cynics imagine the thing could be choreographed? Like... were it to occur in Basel, for instance, all is right? Or some is wrong?
 
Chanwan said:
I'd take those odds on Fed. He's outperformed Rafa with more than 550 points for this part of the season every year but 2013, I would think. @falstaff78 , do you have the stats by any chance?
OP, @borg25 - you need to look at http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race
Click to expand...

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/the-race-to-ye-1-2017.581222/page-3#post-11420997

People are forgetting some rather important factors in this whole discussion:

1. fatigue. nadal has played much more than federer this year.
https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...r-6545-who-ya-got.594542/page-3#post-11423654

2. second half drop-off. federer outlasts nadal 44-17 in tournaments they have played in the second half of the season, and has a head to head of 7-3.
https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/tournament-head-to-heads-calculated.595183/

this race will not be close.
 
FedFosterWallace said:
The chickens coming home to roost now, perhaps. Shot-in-the-dark optimism earlier... a bunch goes close to ideally, and the seas part. Insane how much has fallen into place for this latter half.
Click to expand...

I honestly don't think he cares that much about yen 1. If I were him I'd just focus on resting up that old man body and getting more gs trophies.
 
1HBHNation said:
I honestly don't think he cares that much about yen 1. If I were him I'd just focus on resting up that old man body and getting more gs trophies.
Click to expand...
No doubt they're prioritized but he cares about this one, and he's said as much. If he does snag that last major trophy on offer this season, it's about a done deal.
 
merlinpinpin said:
we're entering the part of the year that has traditionally been the worst for [Nadal] and the best for Federer.
Click to expand...

This. It's the biggest reason that Fredheads are guardedly optimistic right now. So like others have said, if Fred skips any 1000s from here on in, he's basically gifting up to 1000 free points to Ralph -- especially since Djokie's and Muzzie's health are big, fat question marks right now.

IMO Fred should show up in Montreal and play the tournament in energy conservation mode: swinging for the fences every shot to keep points short. As long as he makes the SF, he'll pick up a decent number of points. And should he manage to win the whole thing, he ought to have a reasonable amount of fuel left in the tank for TRS and Flushing Meadow.
 
borg25 said:
I think Fed is the favourite to finish year end number #1 because,

Every tournament he enters is extra points; no points to defend
Nadal has the same; no points to defend, but his results are not that good
at the US Open or faster indoor courts.
Fed is about 900 points behind Nadal. Murray has a ton of points to defend so will
definitely lose the number 1 spot, unless his form changes dramatically.

It depends on Fed's energy levels. He will play cincinatti I assume. But what about Montreal?

A lot depends on how deep Nadal and Fed go at the US Open. But still a lot of
points to pick up in the indoor season and WTF which is 1500 for the winner.

Go Fed for #20!!
Click to expand...
Since 2010 Nadal has won far more in north america than Federer! Nadal already 600 points ahead i think and i would think after uso that will incease to about 3000 for Nadal.

I Doubt either will play a full post USO season so Nadal will end year no.1 . Even if they both play all way through to WTF Federer would need all the remaining events and hope Nadal gets knocked out early at all events to have a chance.

Nadal has no.1 wrapped up tbh
 
Smasher08 said:
This. It's the biggest reason that Fredheads are guardedly optimistic right now. So like others have said, if Fred skips any 1000s from here on in, he's basically gifting up to 1000 free points to Ralph -- especially since Djokie's and Muzzie's health are big, fat question marks right now.

IMO Fred should show up in Montreal and play the tournament in energy conservation mode: swinging for the fences every shot to keep points short. As long as he makes the SF, he'll pick up a decent number of points. And should he manage to win the whole thing, he ought to have a reasonable amount of fuel left in the tank for TRS and Flushing Meadow.
Click to expand...
USO is besf of 5. Highly unlikely he beats Nadal there.
 
Key stats:
  • Nads hasn't beaten Rogi in North America since 2013
  • Nads hasn't won a five set match against Rogi since 2014
  • Rogi is undefeated against Nads (all surfaces) since the biological passport began (Spring 2014)
  • Nads has not won a non-clay tournament since 2013
  • Rogi has made the semis or better of every slam he's played since Wimbledon 2015
  • Rogi is undefeated against Nads on hardcourt in 2017
  • Rogi is on a four match undefeated streak against Nads
  • Fed-Nad sets in 2017: 7-2
  • Fed-Nad matches in 2017: 3-0
;)
 
borg25 said:
I think Fed is the favourite to finish year end number #1 because,

Every tournament he enters is extra points; no points to defend
Nadal has the same; no points to defend, but his results are not that good
at the US Open or faster indoor courts.
Fed is about 900 points behind Nadal. Murray has a ton of points to defend so will
definitely lose the number 1 spot, unless his form changes dramatically.

It depends on Fed's energy levels. He will play cincinatti I assume. But what about Montreal?

A lot depends on how deep Nadal and Fed go at the US Open. But still a lot of
points to pick up in the indoor season and WTF which is 1500 for the winner.

Go Fed for #20!!
Click to expand...

No, Federer won't finish the year at #1. Not looking good.
 
I dont think so but you never know. I would give 10% shot. Nadal's lead is too big, I dont think he will totally suck indoors this year (he doesnt always, especialy when confident) and I dont see Federer sweeping the fall either.
 
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