Will Fedal ever beat Novak at a major ever again?

[clout]

Did some research just now and I didn't realize how much time has passed since either one of Fedal beat Djokovic at a GS. It's been over a half-decade for both of them with Rafa's last win coming at the 2014 French while Roger hasn't picked up a W against Novak at a major since Wimbledon 2012. To put that into perspective, the last time either beat Nole at a GS, Stefanos and A. Zverev (two current top 10 players) were 15 and 17 years old (both were still minors), respectively, while Nole himself "only" had 6 majors to his resume.

I think Rafa will probably beat him at the French but his chances are slim elsewhere (if he does it'll prob be at either WI or US). As for Fed, I sadly don't think he'll ever beat Djoker again, I mean I didn't think he could take Nole past 4 sets at a slam until this past finals but then again, he threw the kitchen sink at him and still couldn't win; Wimbledon will be the place it happens though if it ever was to occur again. Also, Fed doesn't have age on his side being 38 while Rafa is not even a full calendar year older than Novak.

 

[hipolymer]

To be the GOATs, they don't need to. Not as long as Djoker keeps gifting slams to Murrays/Wawrinkas/Cilics/Thiems/Zverevs/Tsitsipases

Djoke's charity knows no limits

 

[Lleytonstation]

Will they ever play again in a major is a legitimate question.

 

[Mainad]

I voted for Rafa because he still has the upper hand at Roland Garros and so remains the guy to beat there. Fed has proved vulnerable to Djokovic at any of the Slams.

 

[Tennis Analyst]

Federer needs more than a single win. He needs to turn his negative H2H record with Djokovic to a winning one. No one would consider him the best ever if he ends his career with a LOSING record against BOTH of his biggest rivals. Fed really needs to step it up before it's too late.

 

[MeatTornado]

Federer needs more than a single win. He needs to turn his negative H2H record with Djokovic to a winning one. No one would consider him the best ever if he ends his career with a LOSING record against BOTH of his biggest rivals. Fed really needs to step it up before it's too late.

k

 

[I Am Finnish]

The Nadal will
Im Not sure about Fraud

 

[And 5 Others]

k

L

 

[Sudacafan]

If it is not windy in RG, Rafa has not any chance.

 

[And 5 Others]

If it is not windy in RG, Rafa has not any chance.

M

 

[TennisFan3]

I don't think Fedall will EVER beat Novak at a slam again. He is just better than both of them. It is as simple as that.

Even at RG, Nadal will be 34 next year. He is already slowing down and will be even slower next year. I think Djokovic gets him there.

Also all the recent losses would just hurt Fedal mentally against Novak.

Look at what he did to Nadal and Fed. Nadal was close in Wimb 2018 Sf. But then was mauled in AO 2019.
Fed was close in Wimb 2019 Final. The next Novak-Fed match will be a one sided thrashing.

 

[Krish0608]

The Nadal will
Im Not sure about Fraud

Ya their Australian Open final made it amply clear how close he was to beating Novak. Whereas the Wimbledon final between Fedovic was such a one-sided snoozefest.

 

[Fedforever]

The losing HtoT with Djoko is the price he paid for three extra slams. I can't believe he won't think the price was worth it.

 

[sliceroni]

Fedal has declined but they still have a chance. They might get an assist from Nole's elbow, which appeared to be bothering in one of his recent matches.

 

[Backspin1183]

I don't think Fedall will EVER beat Novak at a slam again. He is just better than both of them. It is as simple as that.

Even at RG, Nadal will be 34 next year. He is already slowing down and will be even slower next year. I think Djokovic gets him there.

Also all the recent losses would just hurt Fedal mentally against Novak.

Look at what he did to Nadal and Fed. Nadal was close in Wimb 2018 Sf. But then was mauled in AO 2019.
Fed was close in Wimb 2019 Final. The next Novak-Fed match will be a one sided thrashing.

The AO'19 was Nadal's first official tournament in several months. As disappointed as I was with Nadal's performance in the final, he was just not ready physically to push Novak. He's bageled Novak at Rome (even if on clay) since for the first time ever and will have some confidence when he takes on him again, even outside of clay.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

I remember threads like this one being made all the time when Nadal took over for a short period of time after Fed's peak, and the same happened in 2016 again.

It didn't make any difference.

 

[robthai]

Nadal only on his beloved clay. The surface he builds all his main h2h records on. Without it hes nothing.

 

[Nadal_King]

Lets break by %
Aus open
Federer- 30% chance
Nadal- 20% chance.
French open
Federer- 10% chance
Nadal- 70% chance
Wimbledon
Federer- 45% chance
Nadal- 30% chance
Us open
Federer- 20% chance
Nadal- 30% chance
So as per me rafa at french and roger at Wimbledon have a fair shot but at others its heavily in favour of djokovic but all this could change djokovic level dips in any of there meetings and he isn't playing at the level for which I gave him this much chance.

 

[KINGROGER]

Federer needs more than a single win. He needs to turn his negative H2H record with Djokovic to a winning one. No one would consider him the best ever if he ends his career with a LOSING record against BOTH of his biggest rivals. Fed really needs to step it up before it's too late.

Lol shut up troll.

 

[weakera]

Bull will probably do it to capture #19 or #20 at RG 2020, if he doesn't do it even sooner.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Bull will probably do it to capture #19 or #20 at RG 2020, if he doesn't do it even sooner.

He will have to if he is getting to 20. On clay? He for sure gets to beat one of them if the other two get far enough.

 

[Lleytonstation]

k

Lol shut up troll.

Guys, this guy is a tennis analyst, have some respect. Maybe it is Mats Wilander.

 

[I Am Finnish]

Ya their Australian Open final made it amply clear how close he was to beating Novak. Whereas the Wimbledon final between Fedovic was such a one-sided snoozefest.

RG Would had be a different story if Djokovic had reached the finals

 

[vaillancourt]

If Nadal and Djokovic play at RG it will likely happen. The only way this might be the case is if Djokovic never reaches another RG final which seems unlikely. He is likely to reach RG finals again, and he is also likely to lose to Nadal once he does.

 

[Nadal_Django]

Federer needs more than a single win. He needs to turn his negative H2H record with Djokovic to a winning one. No one would consider him the best ever if he ends his career with a LOSING record against BOTH of his biggest rivals. Fed really needs to step it up before it's too late.

Excellent post.

 

[vaillancourt]

Lets break by %
Aus open
Federer- 30% chance
Nadal- 20% chance.
French open
Federer- 10% chance
Nadal- 70% chance
Wimbledon
Federer- 45% chance
Nadal- 30% chance
Us open
Federer- 20% chance
Nadal- 30% chance
So as per me rafa at french and roger at Wimbledon have a fair shot but at others its heavily in favour of djokovic but all this could change djokovic level dips in any of there meetings and he isn't playing at the level for which I gave him this much chance.

I would absolutely give Federer less than a 30% shot in Australia. He has not beaten Djokovic there since 2007 now. Heck he hasnt had a 5 setter with Djokovic there since 2007. More like 10% probably in reality. And make French Open 1% chance at this point, not 10%.

And your Wimbledon odds are too high for both Federer and Nadal, the scars of this years final wont go away easily and Djokovic was pretty bad in that final for his standards as well. Djokovic's return of serve imparticular was aboslutely terrible for him, and it was not even since Federer was serving unbelievably either. And Nadal couldnt even do it in 2018 when he had everything in his favor so 30% is even too high.

Basically your odds for Federer everywhere but the U.S Open are too high, and your Nadal odds are generous in places, bigtime generous at Wimbledon atleast.

I agree with the 70% Nadal at the French Open though.

 

[vaillancourt]

I don't think Fedall will EVER beat Novak at a slam again. He is just better than both of them. It is as simple as that.

Even at RG, Nadal will be 34 next year. He is already slowing down and will be even slower next year. I think Djokovic gets him there.

Also all the recent losses would just hurt Fedal mentally against Novak.

Look at what he did to Nadal and Fed. Nadal was close in Wimb 2018 Sf. But then was mauled in AO 2019.
Fed was close in Wimb 2019 Final. The next Novak-Fed match will be a one sided thrashing.

Djokovic is struggling to even beat Thiem on clay, and has since 2017. He isnt even the favorite to reach the finals of RG anymore (which btw he hasnt done in 3 years now). You are far overconfident in his RG chances. Yes Nadal will slow down but so will Djokovic, and Djokovic is already past his prime on clay and has been for awhile. So is Nadal but Djokovic is not the one who is the clay GOAT to begin with and can get away with a much reduced level on the surface, that is only Nadal.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Ya their Australian Open final made it amply clear how close he was to beating Novak. Whereas the Wimbledon final between Fedovic was such a one-sided snoozefest.

Rafa has a great chance v Djoker at RG and possibly US Open. Fed can’t even beat Djoker at Wimbledon with two match points so he’s not doing it anywhere else.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Rafa has a great chance v Djoker at RG and possibly US Open. Fed can’t even beat Djoker at Wimbledon with two match points so he’s not doing it anywhere else.

Are we going to see a reverse of that stance if Federer wins against Djoke, but doesn't win the title? Will you be changing your tune?

 

[vaillancourt]

Ya their Australian Open final made it amply clear how close he was to beating Novak. Whereas the Wimbledon final between Fedovic was such a one-sided snoozefest.

Neither Federer or Nadal have a prayer against Novak in Australia. That event is his domain. Nadal is a mere 1 time winner there, so of course is no possible opposition to the Australian Open GOAT especialy in Nadal's slowed down form. Federer is a 6 time but last beat Novak there 12 years ago and hasnt even taken him to 5 sets since then.

Wimbledon is a whole other story. Both are more competitive with Novak there than Australia. Nadal's last match vs Djokovic there was also very close.

It is almost pointless to compare a match in Australia vs a match at Wimbledon.

It could be argued Federer has as good or better a shot vs Djokovic than Nadal at atleast half the slams. However the main thing is Nadal has a WAY better shot of beating Djokovic at Roland Garros where he is the likely winner if they play, than Federer does at any slam. I am sure that is why the votes are going how they are, it all about Roland Garros which is the only place either Nadal or Federer are favored to win over Djokovic at a slam. Lets face it, we all know if they had played in the RG final this year Nadal would have atleast 90% likely won. The Madrid final which wasnt even that close at all despite Novak getting a set, made that clear, especialy when Djokovic has always done worse against Nadal at RG than at clay Masters their entire careers.

 

[Nadal_King]

I would absolutely give Federer less than a 30% shot in Australia. He has not beaten Djokovic there since 2007 now. Heck he hasnt had a 5 setter with Djokovic there since 2007. More like 10% probably in reality. And make French Open 1% chance at this point, not 10%.

And your Wimbledon odds are too high for both Federer and Nadal, the scars of this years final wont go away easily and Djokovic was pretty bad in that final for his standards as well. Djokovic's return of serve imparticular was aboslutely terrible for him, and it was not even since Federer was serving unbelievably either. And Nadal couldnt even do it in 2018 when he had everything in his favor so 30% is even too high.

Basically your odds for Federer everywhere but the U.S Open are too high, and your Nadal odds are generous in places, bigtime generous at Wimbledon atleast.

I agree with the 70% Nadal at the French Open though.

Look at Australia the chances I gave is fair to both federer and nadal.Australia surface is fast and low bouncing and it favours federer a lot.So he surely has a shot now with the speed up court.At french open Federer I feel has no chance almost but still 10% due to djokovic not being doing that well on clay now.On grass Federer surely has a shot and that 10% extra advantage I gave to djokovic is due to this year victory. Us open I think Federer has similar to rafa in Australia.As for Rafa his chances in French far outweight any other place but still a fair shot at Us open which I have given less due to djokovic dominance on hardcourt against him.As for Wimbledon I always feel Djokovic won't be able to blow rafa off the court like he does on hardcourt.

 

[aman92]

Not becauseMedvedev will take him out before he gets to face either

 

[Krish0608]

Rafa has a great chance v Djoker at RG and possibly US Open. Fed can’t even beat Djoker at Wimbledon with two match points so he’s not doing it anywhere else.

How do you say so when Rafa has lost the last 14 sets on a trot against Nole on HCs. I mean, it's not even been close. On the contrary, barring Cincinnati, Federer has played Nole pretty darn close, losing in 3 sets(lost 2 TBs) in Paris and came tantalizingly close to winning Wimbledon. So your logic is that the guy who came very close to victory has no chance and the guy who has been pretty much owned by Nole on HCs, has a better shot against him? Lol. Good logic bro.

 

[MugOpponent]

Djokovic is struggling to even beat Thiem on clay, and has since 2017. He isnt even the favorite to reach the finals of RG anymore (which btw he hasnt done in 3 years now). You are far overconfident in his RG chances. Yes Nadal will slow down but so will Djokovic, and Djokovic is already past his prime on clay and has been for awhile. So is Nadal but Djokovic is not the one who is the clay GOAT to begin with and can get away with a much reduced level on the surface, that is only Nadal.

I think we've reached a point with the big 3 matchups where their advantages are accentuated based on surface. Therefore I expect more one sided matchups between Nadal/Djoker on HC and I expect Nadal to crush Novak on clay. Anyone who thinks Djokovic was going to win RG or even get close this year against Rafa is loony tunes.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

How do you say so when Rafa has lost the last 14 sets on a trot against Nole on HCs. I mean, it's not even been close. On the contrary, barring Cincinnati, Federer has played Nole pretty darn close, losing in 3 sets(lost 2 TBs) in Paris and came tantalizingly close to winning Wimbledon. So your logic is that the guy who came very close to victory has no chance and the guy who has been pretty much owned by Nole on HCs, has a better shot against him? Lol. Good logic bro.

My thinking here is that the US Open is the second slowest slam and it is no co-incidence that it is Nadal's second most succesful slam. He has had a bit of unexpected success against Djokovic there over the years. You add to that Nadal's demolishion of Medvedev who has been arguably the form player of the hard court season, the Canada title and the rest leading into the US Open and all of the ingredients are there. I definately think Djoker is the favourite for the event but Rafa will be very competitive at this one.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Are we going to see a reverse of that stance if Federer wins against Djoke, but doesn't win the title? Will you be changing your tune?

I doubt very much that Federer is beating Djokovic at the US Open. If Federer beats Djokovic but doesn't win the title it will in all likelyhood mean that he lost to Nadal in the final. Not impossible for this to happen but certainly not the likely scenario.

 

[pmh1983]

Unfortunately I don't see Federer ever doing it again; the Wimbledon final defeat will be the beginning of the end (pains me to type that). And even if he beat Djokovic at US Open and/or Australian Open, unless he was to beat him in next years Wimbledon final I wouldn't be too fussed anyway.

Nadal will beat Djokovic at the French Open if they should meet again, however if they were to meet at any of the others I am favouring Novak. I can't see past a Djokovic/Nadal US Open final, Federer likely to fall in the SF to either of them dependant on which side of the draw he lands in.

 

[Fedforever]

And even if he beat Djokovic at US Open and/or Australian Open, unless he was to beat him in next years Wimbledon final I wouldn't be too fussed anyway.

You wouldn't be too fussed if Fed won another slam?

 

[Pantera]

Of course both can. Djokovic could carry a niggle, not play well...to suggest one of those three cannot beat the other is madness.

The real question is if all 3 at their best what happens. In that scenario I find it hard to see Federer beating Djokovic anywhere over 5 sets. I only see Federer being able to beat Nadal at Wimbledon.

Nadal is probably now way ahead of Djokovic on clay, Thiem Nadal's biggest threat, and I think Nadal at his best can beat Djokovic at USO. However at AO and W, Nadal will never beat Djokovic.

 

[Towny]

Nadal was a few points away from winning at Wimbledon last year. Federer was literally 1 point away from winning at Wimbledon this year. It could certainly happen. To quote Djokovic himself, 'he is not unbeatable'.

That said, will it happen is a different question. I would say yes for Nadal in that theres a reasonable chance they play at RG again, where Nadal is the clear favourite. Nadal will also have a chance at the USO too, where he has matched up well with Novak in the past. Probably a no for Federer, in that I don't see them meeting all that often. He won't win at AO or RG. He will have a chance at this years USO and maybe next years Wimbledon. That's probably it

 

[pmh1983]

You wouldn't be too fussed if Fed won another slam?

Not saying that, but the only way to fully erase what happened at Wimbledon for me is if Federer beat Djokovic in a rematch next year.

If Federer won one, or even both of the US Open and Australian Open, beating Djokovic to do so I would be ecstatic but the Wimbledon final would still sting.

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

How the hell can we know?

Rare to see any prediction gone right on these boards.

 

[RF-18]

This is what happens when Djokovic dominates. Djokovic is simply the better tennis player than either of them and that has to be said. 5 years since either of them was able to beat him at the biggest stage, that speaks volumes.

 

[Krish0608]

This is what happens when Djokovic dominates. Djokovic is simply the better tennis player than either of them and that has to be said. 5 years since either of them was able to beat him at the biggest stage, that speaks volumes.

It's highly debatable that Djokovic is a better tennis player than Federer. There is no way to actually know this since their primes didn't really overlap. The only phase were both were playing at close to their best levels was 2011-12 and it was dead even in both the years between them. Anything from 2006-10 or 2013-present cannot be used to judge who is a better Tennis player since one of the two players were below their best. If anything, Djokovic is getting an extended shot at beating a relatively weak Federer. This Djokovic would not have beaten 2012 Federer at Wimbledon. The match would probably not even have gone 5. We'll never really know.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Rafa is not even a full calendar year older than Novak.

I agree with your post, been saying it for a while now, but this bolded statement is a little too trumped-up. Nadal is 50 or 51 weeks older.

Such hair-splitting! I'd say we can round that off to a full year...

 

[UnderratedSlam]

It's highly debatable that Djokovic is a better tennis player than Federer. There is no way to actually know this since their primes didn't really overlap. The only phase were both were playing at close to their best levels was 2011-12 and it was dead even in both the years between them. Anything from 2006-10 or 2013-present cannot be used to judge who is a better Tennis player since one of the two players were below their best. If anything, Djokovic is getting an extended shot at beating a relatively weak Federer. This Djokovic would not have beaten 2012 Federer at Wimbledon. The match would probably not even have gone 5. We'll never really know.

Primes, peaks, and shmeeps, my favourite tennis fallacies.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Nadal only on his beloved clay. The surface he builds all his main h2h records on. Without it hes nothing.

So true that Nadal is "nothing" off clay. One wonders how in the world he ever managed to win 6 slams off the dirt, which is as many total majors as both Boris and Edberg won.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

So true that Nadal is "nothing" off clay. One wonders how in the world he ever managed to win 6 slams off the dirt, which is as many total majors as both Boris and Edberg won.

An insult that ends up a huge compliment.

Not sure it was intended that way...

 

[metsman]

They both scored moral victories. What more does one want from the 49 year old paraplegics?

 

[RS]

Nadal can if it’s at RG.
Federer probably not. I hope he beats Djokovic in a slam he hasn’t for just over 7 years now and in 5 losses in a row. At Wimbledon he has a chance he came so close last year.