Will Federer win another Slam?
- Thread starter Towny
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helterskelter
G.O.A.T.
It is frustrating. One common option, which we don't see much of here, is the pessimistic fan, e.g. the Federer fan who always fears that Federer won't win, rather than the Federer fan who is always insistent that he will. (I know some Federer fans in other groups who are more convinced than the Nadal fans in those groups are that Nadal will end up with more Slam titles than Federer).
I tend to be a pessimistic ABtN. I always want Nadal to lose but often fear that he will win. By contrast, @FedFosterWallace is an optimistic ABN. So, I think, is @Tennis_Hands. Not sure about @vive le beau jeu !
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Deleted member 743561
Guest
Oh, def.
The optimism lies (see what I did there?) in the assurance of karmic justice.
Should the unthinkable come to pass, yes, the arguments will be more aggravating and mildly more laborious. But that is it.
And when the math is "corrected"... arguments cease to be.
Badmrfrosty
Rookie
Here are his odds to win the next 4 slams
Wimbeldon +350
US Open +700
Austrialian Open +700
French Open +2600
This roughly implies about 35% chance he wins at least one of the next four slams. I'd guess it is probably a lot worse for following 4 slams.
Good question. I'd say fair odds are close to 50/50 that he wins another Slam and you could argue 40/60 or 60/40, but at those odds you should be placing bets.
Bonus: odds he wins next four: more than 8000 to 1
Wimbeldon +350
US Open +700
Austrialian Open +700
French Open +2600
This roughly implies about 35% chance he wins at least one of the next four slams. I'd guess it is probably a lot worse for following 4 slams.
Good question. I'd say fair odds are close to 50/50 that he wins another Slam and you could argue 40/60 or 60/40, but at those odds you should be placing bets.
Bonus: odds he wins next four: more than 8000 to 1
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Thiem has shown nothing to make me think he's better than 2015-16 Murray on clay.
Vanilla Slice
Professional
Think he’s got one more and that’s it. Deep runs and maybe taking down some big names will be the usual. I’d say prob one of the next two Wimbledon’s or AO that’s it.
No shot at the USO or French
No shot at the USO or French
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
How about beating Djokovic in RG and beating a decent Nadal a few times? I don't see any version of Murray beating 2019 Djokovic in RG.
r2473
G.O.A.T.
Is Halle a slam?
BorisRogerFan
Semi-Pro
I must be the only one here who believes he can reach 24-25 majors. He's not retiring anytime soon, folks.
Towny
Hall of Fame
It's more than a slam. Second only to Basel, the ultimate prize
Lew II
G.O.A.T.
He's playing at a very high level. Highest winning percentage of 2019.
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
How many times did we see this? Wimbledon 2014, USO 2014, Wimbledon 2015, USO 2015, AO 2016, Wimbledon 2016...Each one of these was his "last chance".
And retroactively at that.
aman92
Legend
Wimbledon is the only surface where he doesn't need to get into extended rallies as most of the tour hasn't even learned to play in it yet. He is obviously not winning RG again and can't last in best of 5 sets in hard court slams anymore...the next slam is his last chance salon
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Maybe not, but does it really matter? I mean sure we don't want him to be passed, but at some point wanting a 38-39-40 year old to keep winning more slams just because 21 isn't safe is completely unrealistic. Just blame it on the young generation and call it a weak era like 95% of Djokovic and Nadal fans have always done. Problem solved.
As far as Federer winning another slam goes, I'm saying yes until the day he retires. No offence to the OP who is a great poster, but this is like the 700000th on this topic and everybody that's said no (myself included) up to this point has been wrong. Time to stop predicting and just watch the tennis.
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MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
I do admit it's getting real old having to hope that a late 30s Fed can add to his slam total simply because the younger gen has shown no resistance to Djokodal adding to theirs. He shouldn't have to win more than 20 to protect his record.Maybe not, but does it really matter? I mean sure we don't want him to be passed, but at some point wanting a 38-39-40 year old to keep winning more slams just because 21 isn't safe is completely unrealistic. Just blame it on the young generation and call it a weak era like 95% of Djokovic and Nadal fans have always done. Problem solved.
As far as Federer winning another slam goes, I'm saying yes until the day he retires. No offence to the OP who is a great poster, but this is like the 700000th on this topic and everybody that's said no (myself included) up to this point has been wrong. Time to stop predicting and just watch the tennis.
Towser83
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic can lose against other players but if he gets to Fed I dont see him losing. Theres a slight chance but more chance he gets upset early on imo
He wasnt on clay but he was able to beat everyone not called Nadal and even vs Nadal he beat him many times in masters, from 2011 he actually managed to keep the best of 3 clay h2h lead, yet he got utterly destroyed by Nadal this year and couldnt even reach Nadal at RG. He just doesnt have the talent on clay so I think he could only do so well while he was at the pinnacle of his game, where as Nadal can win there on his c game. Also I'd expect Thiem to have the edge over fed but easily win may be pushing it, he struggled to beat Fed in Madrid and Thiem hasn't shown he is a solid player in big finals
He's nog the same player. Nadal getting better isnt an issue because Djokovic has lost a lot of matches to players that are not Nadal. In 2011-2016 he often beat Nadal at the clay masters (actually more times than Nadal beat him) and though Nadal had the better of his at RG, Djokovic was able to get very close in 2013. Now he cant even reach Nadal at RG. A few years back he easily beat Thiem, hes a better player than Thiem but Thiem is at the top of his game now and Djokovic isnt
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
Not likely but you never know with roger! It looks likely Rafa will pass his slam count now! Novak will also have a good chance too!
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
I would not expect it.
chimneysweep
Semi-Pro
50/50 IMO.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Yeah, I've stopped worrying over it tbh. It's not a good mind set and it's not the reason I ever liked tennis to begin with.
I guess this all depends on the level of decline shown by Djokovic and Nadal at Federer's current age though, or whether Federer can win 1-2 more at this age. If Djokovic and/or Nadal is still going strong at 37 the same way they're doing now, and showing a higher level than Federer at 37 then hats off to them, but I don't believe that will happen regardless of "strength" of the era. Djokovic being favourite for every major from now until he's 37 just isn't realistic at all, which is why I always considered Nadal the greater threat. He could peg 2-3 more RG and pass him because he can win it in his sleep, but none of it bothers me that much anymore like it might have once upon a time.
I never go into a major actually expecting Federer to win it anymore so I don't expect him to win it just to save his record. He's not superman. And if he gets passed because Nadal and Djokovic run over the young generation then so be it. It won't be because Federer never tried.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
The 2012 USO final is a decent reason for backing Murray against Novak if they played in this year's semi-final.
Also, taking 2015 Novak to 5 sets is plenty good of a reason to pick him to beat 2019 Novak.
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StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
First all of USO is not played on clay. Also, 2012 Murray was better than 2015-2016 Murray by a pretty big distance IMO, at least in BO5 matches. Yeah, the second half of 2016 was the best part of his career but it has a lot to do with the competition being a joke. (and yet he won only one BO5 tournament that year).
And please, Djokovic should have won that RG 2015 semifinal in straight sets. Murray was nothing special, he missed at least 3 easy overheads on big points, I remember that well. Djokovic let him back into the match but still destroyed him in the fifth set.
The thing is Murray has no weapons to hurt Djokovic on slow surfaces. Thiem at least has a very good forehand which helps him hit through Djokovic on clay. Murray has no such shots so he tries to grind-the worst possible tactic you can use against Djokovic.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
I mentioned the 2012 USO because of the extreme wind they played in.
sredna42
Hall of Fame
Maybe, just maybe wimbledon this year but its along shot. Next AO is the next chance, though even slimmer. That's it. He's sadly looking spent now imo. That's why he played the French, not out of any belief he'd do well but as a last hurrah there while he could.
Nothing lasts forever.
Nothing lasts forever.
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
Uhh have you ever been in the match threads? That’s all they ever do over there.. act like Federer is going to lose.
The term handwringerer was coined for that very reason.
It tends to be more aggravating than the cocky Fed fans
VacationTennis
Semi-Pro
Guys he entered FO as a joke and found himself in the semi's. Who else can do that?
I think he has the ability to play even better tennis than AO17 which wasn't that long ago guys. We already know he's not winning the physical game, he's winning in other ways. He's already demonstrated that he isn't sharply declining with age like the other players, some would say he's improving in certain areas. It's those special too good areas of his game that will continue to win matches.
I think he has the ability to play even better tennis than AO17 which wasn't that long ago guys. We already know he's not winning the physical game, he's winning in other ways. He's already demonstrated that he isn't sharply declining with age like the other players, some would say he's improving in certain areas. It's those special too good areas of his game that will continue to win matches.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
How about Agassi arriving to Wimbledon 1982 with no grass practice and no interest to play the event, but winning it 16 days later?
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Deleted member 763024
Guest
Fedr win slem, yessir
Rosstour
Talk Tennis Guru
Their last few matches have been very close, tense, and cagey. Each of them fears and respects the other. There is a lot of tension there, I think that's because they both understand the gravity of their meetings now. The gap is not as large as we think it is, and the scorelines for their last few matches confirm that.
titoelcolombiano
Legend
Yes, he is definately capable. He is still the world number 3 and playing a very good level which is astonishing for someone that is 38 this year. I'd be tempted to say that Wimbledon is his best chance but he came into this season as the defending AO champion.
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