Will Murray ever beat Federer again?

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Will Murray ever beat Fed again?

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He might grab a set but I don’t think he’ll win.

Federer rushes Murray too much now. Murray hasn’t beaten Federer since 2013. Unless Federer is injured, it isn’t happening.
 
I still wonder about the oddly close Federer/Murray H2H. Murray had a comfortable lead at one point.

What are some possible reasons for that stat being so close despite the gulf between the two overall?

Match-up? I know they also met frequently at tournaments that Fed didn't care about much. The slam H2H has always been as it should be.
 
Firstservingman said:
I still wonder about the oddly close Federer/Murray H2H. Murray had a comfortable lead at one point.

What are some possible reasons for that stat being so close despite the gulf between the two overall?

Match-up? I know they also met frequently at tournaments that Fed didn't care about much. The slam H2H has always been as it should be.
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I think Federer's game grew too forceful for Murray. He developed too many reliable ways of putting pressure on his serve and is so clinical with tactics in general against Murray (and just in general) "these days". Also, pretty much any time Fed is genuinely on it's over for Murray who isn't in the same class and I'm guessing he made pretty sure to rectify much of the situation after being down (IIIC) 2-6 in the H2H. It's fair to say Murray would have stood good chances in 2016.
 
Although it’s fun to go back and laugh at some of these predictions, ALL history, historical trends involving highly ranked players at these ages suggest that Murray would have surely beaten Federer, yet he hasn’t.

It kind of puts what Federer is doing into historical perspective. Yes, Murray has gotten injured, but in the past, it was generally expected thst players past 30 who started achieving success early, would get either injured/burned out/unmotivated/etc.m sooner or later.
 
I never ever considered Murray a major threat to Fed - maybe because I missed much of the minor tournaments between 2008-2010 - I've always found him too passive for his own good vs the other big 4 and that's cost him dearly against Federer in the big matches. Tactically, Fed has grown astutely since his physical skills and recovery have diminished from his late 20s - this as noted by some before, has helped him immensely vs Murray.

I think Murray is done as a top flight competitor.
 
Federer has been able to make fast starts against Murray and avoid playing catch up

Seen things go so badly for Murray that Federer has to gift him a game to avoid a double bagel
 
Chanwan said:
And all at the AO. So we can also say:
Murray has not beaten Federer in more than 5 years.:eek:

Nadal has not beaten Federer in more than 4 years.:eek:

Djokovic has not beaten Federer in more than 2 years :eek::eek:;)
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ohemgee

You're right!

And Fed tried really hard to beat himself at AO17 all the way up to 1-3 fifth set, but the Legend of Fedr would NOT be denied. :D
 
Firstservingman said:
I still wonder about the oddly close Federer/Murray H2H. Murray had a comfortable lead at one point.

What are some possible reasons for that stat being so close despite the gulf between the two overall?

Match-up? I know they also met frequently at tournaments that Fed didn't care about much. The slam H2H has always been as it should be.
Click to expand...

Murray used to beat Fed in BO3 by drawing errors from him, harder to do so in later stages of slams where Fed is much more dialled-in and you have to be more aggressive to beat him. Fed started having edge even in BO3 matches after switching to a bigger racquet which made his BH much more consistent (and took away Murray's main gameplan).Also I think Murray was a more physical and intense player before the back surgery, he reached a very high and consistent level after but never his athletic peak again IMO.

So basically, different match-up dynamics in BO3 vs BO5, Fed's racquet change and Murray's back injury.
 
Firstservingman said:
I still wonder about the oddly close Federer/Murray H2H. Murray had a comfortable lead at one point.

What are some possible reasons for that stat being so close despite the gulf between the two overall?

Match-up? I know they also met frequently at tournaments that Fed didn't care about much. The slam H2H has always been as it should be.
Click to expand...

Twist the knife why don't you mate. Unnecessary cruelty to me and the other 5 Muzz fans on here. :(

Just take your 20 slems and bugger off ya greedy gits ;)
 
Depends on a few factors. If Murray can get back to top levels or somewhere close then I suspect he'll beat the older Federer at least once before his own career is over. Murray at his best or close to it is still a great player that is more than capable of beating Federer on an off day. The only way I see that a top level Murray doesn't beat Federer again (even if it takes a few tries) is if Federer retires before that happens.
 
Steve0904 said:
Depends on a few factors. If Murray can get back to top levels or somewhere close then I suspect he'll beat the older Federer at least once before his own career is over. Murray at his best or close to it is still a great player that is more than capable of beating Federer on an off day. The only way I see that a top level Murray doesn't beat Federer again (even if it takes a few tries) is if Federer retires before that happens.
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Healthy Murray has a pretty decent shot vs Agerer
 
To the OPs question: not likely. Anything is possible, but I suspect RF will be teaching clinics in South Africa before AM is ready for another run at him...and he could be doing the clinics with 21 or more GSs too.
 
Red Rick said:
Did you watch tennis in 2016?
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Yeah and he played the same way he did every other year he got minced by Federer.

Really not hard to work out that counterpunchers don't bother Federer much.
 
Murray needs to get fit again to play. Let’s not count our chickens just yet.

That said, in theory, I don’t see why not if Murray returns fully fit while Roger at *some* point will start to decline and their paths intersect.

But add in factors like surface and round in which they meet and I still give Roger the upper hand in their H2H going forward.
 
Federer and Nadal didn’t even play good chunk of 2016, which is why Murray got to #1. Also, Novak slumped badly by his standards.

With that being said, Murray will eventually exploit Federer’s massive 6 year age handicap. Also, if #116 Donskoy and #302 Haas can beat Federer, then Murray can beat Fed. Fed is vulnerable in a best of 3 setup. Fed has owned Murray in the slams, however. Murray’s only win over Fed at a slam was in 2013, the year a ton of people owned Fed. And Murray still needed 5 sets to win that match.

Speaking of 2013, I never realized how bad that year really was for Fed. Age, back pain, and that crappy racket really caught up to him.

Here are all of Fed’s 20 seasons’ worth of records against the top 10, sorted by the most games below .500

2013 4-10 -6
2000 3-7, -4
2008 7-10, -3
2016 1-4, -3
1999 1-4, -3
1998 0-1, -1
2001 5-5
2011 10-9, +1
2003 9-5, +4
2009 15-10, +5
2002, 10-5, +5
2012 16-9, +7
2015 15-6, +9
2010, 16-6, +10
2014, 17-5, +12
2017,14-2, +12
2007, 17-4, +13
2005 15-2, +13
2006, 19-4, +15
2004, 18-0, +18

In 2016, I remember an announcer saying that Jack Sock had a career year up to that point because he registered 4 wins against the top 10, the first year that he had multiple wins against the top 10. Jack Sock now has 9 career wins against the top 10.

Here is a list of some of the players that have multiple seasons with 10+wins against top-10 opponents:

Federer 12
Nadal 8
Djokovic 7
Borg 6
Sampras 6
Lendl 6
Murray 5
McENROE 4
Connors 4
Becker 3
Edberg 3
Agassi 2

Note. 7-time slam champion Wilander only has 1 season with 10+ wins against top-10 opponents.

Murray has 5 seasons with 10+ wins against the top 10. That is remarkable. I never would have guessed that. Murray is way underrated by most, IMHO. I was guilty of this myself.

Edit: Federer was 14-2 vs top 10
 
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Red Rick said:
Healthy Murray has a pretty decent shot vs Agerer
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Depends on what you're talking about. Any good to great form Federer (like the one we're seeing the last couple years) has the edge as proven in recent years. In other words, Murray has to be playing well and Federer a little off if we're going by Federer's current level. My assumption however, is that if Murray got back to a decent level he'd eventually beat Federer due to Federer's continued decline and Murray being the younger player.
 
mike danny said:
If Federer had beaten Raonic at 2016 Wimb, Murray would have carved hIm up.
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Probably true. Still would've been a better match for Murray than Raonic though. Murray beating Raonic was NID. At least if he had played Federer he would've had to overcome the mental aspect of it.
 
When Fed’s knee buckled in the 5th set of that 2016 Wimby semifinal against Raonic, which caused him to hit the ground hard, I though that was the end of Federer’s career.

Federer was in terrible condition in 2016. It was a miracle that he made it to the Wimby semis. Federer would have lost to Murray in 4 sets.

As Raonic said right before the 2017 Wimby match, Federer this year is in much better shape than he was in 2016. After Fed destroyed Raonic, Milos said that Federer pretty much has the trophy in the bag. And Milos was right!
 
Pheasant said:
When Fed’s knee buckled in the 5th set of that 2016 Wimby semifinal against Raonic, which caused him to hit the ground hard, I though that was the end of Federer’s career.

Federer was in terrible condition in 2016. It was a miracle that he made it to the Wimby semis. Federer would have lost to Murray in 4 sets.

As Raonic said right before the 2017 Wimby match, Federer this year is in much better shape than he was in 2016. After Fed destroyed Raonic, Milos said that Federer pretty much has the trophy in the bag. And Milos was right!
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That sight was sadder to watch compared to him losing slam finals against Peakovic. It was like he was really done.
 
Red Rick said:
Did you watch tennis in 2016?
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There was nothing especially unique in Murray's game in 2016 aside from the sheer physical effort it took to play such packed post-USO schedule in chasing #1.

Totally deserved end-result of course (winning Wimbledon again and finally reaching #1) but I didn't see his game reach never before seen heights. I still feel Murray's peak was 2012-2013 before he injured his back, less consistent but more potent top level.
 
Shank Volley said:
Plus as we all know it's far better to lose before the final than to show some consistency against the field but lose to a better playing rival.
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Normally I would hate to see Fed lose before the final of a slam. But given that he was genuinely injured at 2016 Wimb, why play the final?
 
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