Will nadal beat federer's grand slam record??

[Thinker_145]

I have noticed that people tend to ignore that rafa has had quite a head start over federer. Nadal is still 2 slams ahead compared to federer of rafa's current age and he will need to win either french or wimbledon to keep that gap.

Nadal needs to win 2 grand slams every year to also have 16 slams at the age of 29. If nadal continues to dominate french open then this doesnt actually seem as difficult as it may initially look. This years french open would certainly tell us if nadal really is still that dominant on clay.

But ofcourse federer's not retired yet and may go to win as many as 20 grand slams who knows and I think he would have nadal very well in his mind and will be motivated to continue to win so it makes it very dificult for nadal to get close to him.

I certainly think nadal will break sampras's no.2 spot. And provided he will continue to have a superior H2H with federer, I think 15 grand slams is all nadal needs to be the GOAT.

What are your opinions on the matter?

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

no. poll plz???

 

[Semi-Pro]

No. By the looks of his physical condition I don't think he would even have enough time.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Highly unlikely due to Nadal's knee problems and a lot of unknown variables (DelPo, for example.)

What if Fed ends up with 25 Slams?

Masters titles, now that's a different story.

It's rather amusing to see how the stock of players goes up and down in a matter of months if not weeks though. A player can go from washed-up scum to being a contender for the GOAT title depending on the result of a single match. Geez!

 

[Lsmkenpo]

Not sure,will he have to play anyone ranked higher than 8th in the world in any non clay majors.

If not he has a good chance, IMO.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Not sure,will he have to play anyone ranked higher than 8th in the world in any non clay majors.

If not he has a good chance, IMO.

I hope he plays Fed in RG and Wimbledon soon. If not for his benefit, for the benefit of everyone here that won't have to listen to your nonsense for a while thereafter.

 

[Lsmkenpo]

I hope he plays Fed in RG and Wimbledon soon. If not for his benefit, for the benefit of everyone here that won't have to listen to your nonsense for a while thereafter.

What nonsense? has Nadal beat any top players in the past 12 months, or is it still 2008?

You do realize quite a few players have improved to challenge both Fed and Nadal over the past 2 years don't you?

Why are you bringing up Federer, I never mentioned him, you are going off topic once again.

 

[anantak2k]

Of course he will. Nadal will win 20+ slams as long as he is not injured or tired.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

What nonsense? has Nadal beat any top players in the past 12 months, or is it still 2008?

You do realize quite a few players have improved to challenge both Fed and Nadal over the past 2 years don't you?

Why are you bringing up Federer, I never mentioned him, you are going off topic once again.

OK, what players, according to you, are now a threat to Fed and Nadal? I'm willing to give you DelPo. Nadal has been out of contention due to severe health problems. When you are competing at the elite level, knee tendinitis is a severe health problem. That explains his dip in performance and results (but if you have a better explanation, let me know because I'm sure everybody would like to be enlightened by you.)

OK, let's not talk about Roger. You seem to be interested in Soderling, so let's talk about him. Yes, he threw Nadal out of RG last year. That's his main claim to fame apparently, because apart from that, he has done squat. Soderling is a nobody. He's 2 years older than Nadal and he has 0 Slams and 0 MS titles, vs 6 Slams for Nadal and 16 MS titles. The difference in level between the two is so huge it's not even funny. So let me know what you think about that.

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

Soderling can beat fellow top 8 players.

Just sayin'

 

[Lsmkenpo]

OK, what players, according to you, are now a threat to Fed and Nadal? I'm willing to give you DelPo. Nadal has been out of contention due to severe health problems. When you are competing at the elite level, knee tendinitis is a severe health problem. That explains his dip in performance and results (but if you have a better explanation, let me know because I'm sure everybody would like to be enlightened by you.)

OK, let's not talk about Roger. You seem to be interested in Soderling, so let's talk about him. Yes, he threw Nadal out of RG last year. That's his main claim to fame apparently, because apart from that, he has done squat. Soderling is a nobody. He's 2 years older than Nadal and he has 0 Slams and 0 MS titles, vs 6 Slams for Nadal and 16 MS titles. The difference in level between the two is so huge it's not even funny. So let me know what you think about that.

All of the top 8 plus add Cilic are more of a threat to Federer and Nadal overall than they were a few years ago.

Look at the point totals, they don't lie, much tighter race than 2 years ago in the
top 8.

 

[swissmiss]

On the eve of Nadal's 24th birthday (in May), he has 6 slams.

On the eve of Fed's 24th birthday (August 2005), he had 5 slams, and added a 6th right after he turned 24 (USO 2005).

So if Nadal wins one slam this year, he'll be ahead by 1. If he wins 2 this year, he'll be ahead by 2. If he doesn't win any, they'll be even.

Given Nadal's average slam "pace", it's not looking like he'll pass Fed, especially since Fed is likely to add a few more to his collection before he hangs up his racket. Not to mention, Nadal is Federer's kryptonite at slams, whereas Nadal can be vulnerable to a number of players on the HC slams, and potentially at Wimbledon as well (we'll have to see this year), so as he ages, it should become more difficult for him.

As far as who's a threat to Nadal: clearly Murray and Del Potro are at slams (see USO and AO). If Roddick's learned anything from Miami, he could be a threat at USO and Wimby as well. At the FO, Nadal will have lost some his aura, although he's still going to be incredibly difficult to beat ... still, the next claycourt wonder could be moving up the ATP rankings as we speak, or he'll just become vulnerable on a bad day. I see Soderling being a potential threat at the USO if he learns how to string good wins together. Cilic hasn't convinced me yet.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Soderling can beat fellow top 8 players.

Just sayin'

If he can, what is he doing with 0 Slams and 0 MS titles to his credit? The poor sod is 25 years old. Is he waiting for the planets to align just right? :lol:

 

[swissmiss]

If he can, what is he doing with 0 Slams and 0 MS titles to his credit? The poor sod is 25 years old. Is he waiting for the planets to align just right? :lol:

He clearly had a late-bloomer break-through. I don't think anyone's saying he's the future goat, but he can still be a threat, ie you catch him on a so-so day of yours when he's playing well and you might be in trouble.

I mean, we'll see what happens, but he did get to two Masters Semis this year already, so he could definitely win a Masters title.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

All of the top 8 plus add Cilic are more of a threat to Federer and Nadal overall than they were a few years ago.

Look at the point totals, they don't lie, much tighter race than 2 years ago in the
top 8.

What does it tell you when the current #2 just lost to Verdasco, and the guy that was #3 is now down to #5 after having a huge meltdown? DelPo hasn't played in a long time, and Kolya is injured too. We already went over Soderling (he's just worthless.) Cilic is still an unknown.

There are 2 main facts here:
1. Nadal's form has dropped due to injuries.
2. The 2 main contenders to take the throne (Djoker and Murray) just haven't lived up to the expectations.

Both of those facts make the guys immediately below look like they are actually thriving. Apart from DelPo, it's just not true.

The only reason they look closer now is because Rafa has been on maintenance mode for over 8 months now. Any other player with Rafa's problems would have dropped out of the top 8 without a doubt.

 

[Lsmkenpo]

If he can, what is he doing with 0 Slams and 0 MS titles to his credit? The poor sod is 25 years old. Is he waiting for the planets to align just right? :lol:

Once again you are stuck in the past, his age and past record has no bearing on his current play.

Only player on tour who has improved their game more than Soderling the past 2 years is Del Potro. Magnus Norman turned Soderling's entire career around the best is ahead of him not behind.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

He clearly had a late-bloomer break-through. I don't think anyone's saying he's the future goat, but he can still be a threat, ie you catch him on a so-so day of yours when he's playing well and you might be in trouble.

I mean, we'll see what happens, but he did get to two Masters Semis this year already, so he could definitely win a Masters title.

I basically agree with what you say. It's just annoying when someone touts Soderling as a beastly Rafa-killing machine.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Once again you are stuck in the past, his age and past record has no bearing on his current play.

Only player on tour who has improved their game more than Soderling the past 2 years is Del Potro. Magnus Norman turned Soderling's entire career around the best is ahead of him not behind.

Actually, Ferrero has improved his shape way more than Soderling in the past 2 years, for one. As have plenty of others, including Nadal. Nadal just had the bad luck of being injured for a long time, that's all there is to it.

What's your forecast for Soderling? How many Slams and MS titles do you think Soderling can rack up?

 

[OddJack]

Nadal will not beat Agassi's record.

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

Soderling has played much better the last year. Nadal's points are a bit of a fluke, but no matter, it always happens this way. The fall is slow because they get cake draws but the further they fall the harder cake draws are to come by and the drop slowly gathers momentum.

 

[Chezbeeno]

Of course he will. Nadal will win 20+ slams as long as he is not injured or tired.

Key words: injured, tired

Fed's consistency in slams is one big thing that sets him miles apart from every other player, he's never WITHDRAWN from one for example. I don't see Nadal breaking 10 slams. He's probably going to end up with a career ending injury and if not, his gamestyle, unlike Fed's, will be worsened by age, a lot. His gamestyle is going to keep destroying his body as he gets older, Fed's doesn't.

 

[Lsmkenpo]

What does it tell you when the current #2 just lost to Verdasco, and the guy that was #3 is now down to #5 after having a huge meltdown? DelPo hasn't played in a long time, and Kolya is injured too. We already went over Soderling (he's just worthless.) Cilic is still and unknown.

The only reason they look closer now is because Rafa has been on maintenance mode for over 8 months now. Any other player with Rafa's problems would have dropped out of the top 8 without a doubt.

Everyone has ups and downs, funny
how you will use every excuse necessary to cut some slack to Nadal but everyone else is inferior if they lose one match they were favored in.

Yeah, no players have improved it was Rafa's magic knees that made the difference.

 

[Thinker_145]

On the eve of Nadal's 24th birthday (in May), he has 6 slams.

On the eve of Fed's 24th birthday (August 2005), he had 5 slams, and added a 6th right after he turned 24 (USO 2005).

Nadal's birthday is 3rd june so he will have french before it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Nadal

Federer's birthday is in august so I think we can ignore the 2 month gap for comparasion's sake. Ofcourse nadal will have to win the US open if he wins only 1 out of wimbly and french but my current comparasion was spot on...

 

[akv89]

I have noticed that people tend to ignore that rafa has had quite a head start over federer. Nadal is still 2 slams ahead compared to federer of rafa's current age and he will need to win either french or wimbledon to keep that gap.

Nadal needs to win 2 grand slams every year to also have 16 slams at the age of 29. If nadal continues to dominate french open then this doesnt actually seem as difficult as it may initially look. This years french open would certainly tell us if nadal really is still that dominant on clay.

But ofcourse federer's not retired yet and may go to win as many as 20 grand slams who knows and I think he would have nadal very well in his mind and will be motivated to continue to win so it makes it very dificult for nadal to get close to him.

I certainly think nadal will break sampras's no.2 spot. And provided he will continue to have a superior H2H with federer, I think 15 grand slams is all nadal needs to be the GOAT.

What are your opinions on the matter?

Nadal will almost certainly not be able to catch Federer in the majors race. It's true that Nadal is currently ahead of Federer in terms of how many majors he has won by a certain age (at 23 Federer had won 4 majors to Nadal's 6). However, Federer has been able to keep up the pace of winning 2-3 majors a year since 2004, except for in 2008. I don't see Nadal winning 2 majors a year consistently over the next 5 years. Nadal's biggest weapon is his speed and it's a strength that will erode as he ages. In addition, Federer still has about 2-3 good years left in him to pick up some majors.

Assuming Nadal doesn't have a more debilitating injury anytime in the next 5 years, I think he will end with 10-12 majors.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Nadal will not beat Agassi's record.

He's going to beat Agassi's MS record this year probably (might equal it in 10 days.) What other records apart from that does Agassi have?

 

[OddJack]

He's going to beat Agassi's MS record this year probably (might equal it in 10 days.) What other records apart from that does Agassi have?

I am talking about majors only.

OP is talking about possibility of Nadal beating Federer's major record. I am saying he cant even beat Agassi's.

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

Look at people with similar styles of play: Hewitt, Ferrer, Ferrero, Monfils, Chardy... they are all injured too much to do much anymore despite the flashes of brilliance. Nadal will be no different. I know that Monfils is younger, but he was even more stupid with his body.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Everyone has ups and downs, funny
how you will use every excuse necessary to cut some slack to Nadal but everyone else is inferior if they lose one match they were favored in.

Yeah, no players have improved it was Rafa's magic knees that made the difference.

It's not about cutting slack to anyone. It's about looking at the overall trends. Fed and Nadal took the top 2 spots for what, about 5 years?

Nadal's injuries are just a fact. You don't stay 4 years at #2 behind (and consistently beating) the GOAT, and then overtake him and have one of the most dominating seasons in record if you are a fricking clown. :roll:

 

[TheLoneWolf]

I am talking about majors only.

OP is talking about possibility of Nadal beating Federer's major record. I am saying he cant even beat Agassi's.

OK. I say that if he's healthy he will beat it. It's all going to depend on physical factors.

 

[Semi-Pro]

Actually, Ferrero has improved his shape way more than Soderling in the past 2 years, for one. As have plenty of others, including Nadal. Nadal just had the bad luck of being injured for a long time, that's all there is to it.

What's your forecast for Soderling? How many Slams and MS titles do you think Soderling can rack up?

I wouldn't exactly call it "bad luck". It was actually bound to happen sooner or later. Many had predicted that when he would get injured it would be a really devastating blow, which it was.

 

[swissmiss]

Nadal's birthday is 3rd june so he will have french before it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Nadal

Federer's birthday is in august so I think we can ignore the 2 month gap for comparasion's sake. Ofcourse nadal will have to win the US open if he wins only 1 out of wimbly and french but my current comparasion was spot on...

Sorry, I thought the birthday was like May 31st. Either way he turns 24 before the final. So basically at 24 he'll have 6 - 7 if he wins French - and Fed had 6. I think it's a bit much to already be banking on him winning the FO-Wimby double to make your comparison. My point is, Nadal seemed to be light-years ahead of Fed in slam winning, but his pace hasn't quickened and now they're close to even.

At 25, Fed had 9 slams.
Will Nadal have won 3 slams by his birthday next year? He'd have to win 3 of the next 5 slams. Tall order

At 26, Fed had 12 slams
Will Nadal will 3 of those next 4 slams? Doubtful.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Look at people with similar styles of play: Hewitt, Ferrer, Ferrero, Monfils, Chardy... they are all injured too much to do much anymore despite the flashes of brilliance. Nadal will be no different. I know that Monfils is younger, but he was even more stupid with his body.

Nadal is way more complete than any of those players. But I do agree that his style of play is just as taxing to the body. That's why it depends on how he manages his schedule and how fit he keeps himself. I think this year is going to be important for him.

 

[OddJack]

OK. I say that if he's healthy he will beat it. It's all going to depend on physical factors.

If.

He is not healthy, hasnt been so far at only 23.

Thanks for the insight.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

I wouldn't exactly call it "bad luck". It was actually bound to happen sooner or later. Many had predicted that when he would get injured it would be a really devastating blow, which it was.

It's still bad luck comparatively. Federer has gone throughout his career with practically no injuries. Completely different styles of play though, but still bad luck.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

If.

He is not healthy, hasnt been so far at only 23.

Thanks for the insight.

Yet, he is about to equal the MS titles all time record. What does that tell you?

 

[Semi-Pro]

It's still bad luck comparatively. Federer has gone throughout his career with practically no injuries. Completely different styles of play though, but still bad luck.

I still wouldn't call it back luck if you bring it upon yourself...which Nadal did whether he knew it or not.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

I still wouldn't call it back luck if you bring it upon yourself...which Nadal did whether he knew it or not.

I agree with that up to a point.

 

[abmk]

OK, what players, according to you, are now a threat to Fed and Nadal? I'm willing to give you DelPo. Nadal has been out of contention due to severe health problems. When you are competing at the elite level, knee tendinitis is a severe health problem. That explains his dip in performance and results (but if you have a better explanation, let me know because I'm sure everybody would like to be enlightened by you.)

OK, let's not talk about Roger. You seem to be interested in Soderling, so let's talk about him. Yes, he threw Nadal out of RG last year. That's his main claim to fame apparently, because apart from that, he has done squat. Soderling is a nobody. He's 2 years older than Nadal and he has 0 Slams and 0 MS titles, vs 6 Slams for Nadal and 16 MS titles. The difference in level between the two is so huge it's not even funny. So let me know what you think about that.

umm, murray ? he just beat nadal at the AO ( & beat him previously at the USO )

djoker? who is 7-3 against nadal on HC, but hasn't met him in a HC slam even once !?

roddick at the wimby and at the USO ?

delpo as has already been mentioned

cilic,soderling,davydenko etc could be threats though they're nowhere as accomplished as nadal

 

[OddJack]

Yet, he is about to equal the MS titles all time record. What does that tell you?

That tells me he had poor schedule management. Played too much in wrong places.

They call best of five tourneys a Major, what does that tell you?


He wont even beat Agassi's Major record, let alone Roger's

 

[Nextman916]

No way, if he got to 10 it would be a shock to me. But put in the equation that federer is still playing, and still plans on playing for a while...forget it.

 

[Lsmkenpo]

Actually, Ferrero has improved his shape way more than Soderling in the past 2 years, for one. As have plenty of others, including Nadal. Nadal just had the bad luck of being injured for a long time, that's all there is to it.

Ferrero? yeah, Ferrero is playing the best tennis of his career the past 2 years? He is once again a slam contender LMAO

Nadal? His game has improved more than Soderling's the past 2 years, still LMAO. Let's see H2H of Soderling versus Nadal the past 2 years, versus 2 years prior. Hmm, what does that tell us? OH, yes I forgot about the magic knees, sorry.

What former poster are you? I can only think of a few *******s to compare, shall I guess?

 

[TheLoneWolf]

umm, murray ? he just beat nadal at the AO ( & beat him previously at the USO )

djoker? who is 7-3 against nadal on HC, but hasn't met him in a HC slam even once !?

roddick at the wimby and at the USO ?

delpo as has already been mentioned

cilic,soderling,davydenko etc could be threats though they're nowhere as accomplished as nadal

How were Murray and Djoker doing before Nadal got injured and his form took a dip?

Of the once you mention, I only consider DelPo to be a threat ATM. Djoker and Murray have proven they can't cut it when it matters. Roddick and Davydenko have been around forever, and while I give credit to Roddick, the man still has his limitations. Cilic is just an unknown. I want to see how he does during the clay and grass season. As for Soderling, I think he's way too inconsistent to achieve anything in his career.

I might be wrong though. I guess we'll see.

 

[ecurb]

I think Nadal will end up with 8, maybe 9 slams if he is lucky and be considered with the likes of Agassi and Connors.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

Ferrero? yeah, Ferrero is playing the best tennis of his career the past 2 years? He is once again a slam contender LMAO

Nadal? His game has improved more than Soderling's the past 2 years, still LMAO. Let's see H2H of Soderling versus Nadal the past 2 years, versus 2 years prior. Hmm, what does that tell us? OH, yes I forgot about the magic knees, sorry.

What former poster are you? I can only think of a few *******s to compare, shall I guess?

Ferrero has improved more the past 2 years than Soderling has. Simple fact. Ferrero hasn't won a slam in ages (what was it, 2003?) You said the last 2 years. Even 1 year ago, Ferrero was not in the top 100, and now he is #16. It's elementary math.

You insist on Soderling and Nadal's last 2 matches. I guess that when you don't have any achievements worth mentioning to your credit, that's what you have to fall back on: "Oh, yeah, I defeated Nadal two times when he was injured..." What an achievement. LOL

As for Ferrero being a Slam contender, neither is Soderling. RG last year was a giant fluke. He would have never passed Nadal under normal conditions.

 

[TheLoneWolf]

I think Nadal will end up with 8, maybe 9 slams if he is lucky and be considered with the likes of Agassi and Connors.

If he's lucky he'll end up with 8 slams 3 months from now.

 

[Miami Tiburon]

I dont think so , Federer is not done winning yet

 

[Lsmkenpo]

How were Murray and Djoker doing before Nadal got injured and his form took a dip?

You mean the two 22 year old top 5 players who have consistently beat Nadal the past 2 years off the clay,have no chance to improve? Have they reached their career peaks?

Of the once you mention, I only consider DelPo to be a threat ATM. Djoker and Murray have proven they can't cut it when it matters. Roddick and Davydenko have been around forever, and while I give credit to Roddick, the man still has his limitations. Cilic is just an unknown. I want to see how he does during the clay and grass season. As for Soderling, I think he's way too inconsistent to achieve anything in his career.

Every player in that list has improved and beat Nadal recently.

Cilic is an unknown? Have you been watching him play this past year?
Did you miss him making the quarters of the Usopen and the Semis of the AO, he's got game and is improving.

 

[Agassifan]

Nope............

 

[abmk]

How were Murray and Djoker doing before Nadal got injured and his form took a dip?

Of the once you mention, I only consider DelPo to be a threat ATM. Djoker and Murray have proven they can't cut it when it matters. Roddick and Davydenko have been around forever, and while I give credit to Roddick, the man still has his limitations. Cilic is just an unknown. I want to see how he does during the clay and grass season. As for Soderling, I think he's way too inconsistent to achieve anything in his career.

I might be wrong though. I guess we'll see.

I was talking about threats at slams, not rankings. I thought that was very clear

nadal was all fine when murray took care of him at this year's AO - in fact he was playing some very good tennis

I don't see anyone except djoker challenging nadal for the 2nd spot ( rafa should get it back eventually ) ... murray isn't good enough on clay ... delpo is injured way too often, but of course he is a threat at the slams

 

[TheLoneWolf]

You mean the two 22 year old top 5 players who have consistently beat Nadal the past 2 years off the clay,have no chance to improve? Have they reached their career peaks?

Your threads keep getting dumber and dumber. Are you saying that Murray and Djoker are better than Nadal in grass tournaments too? Yes, Djoker won AO, but so did Nadal (and more recently.) Remember Beijing 2008? Why do I feel like I'm talking to a 4 year old?

Every player in that list has improved and beat Nadal recently.

Cilic is an unknown? Have you been watching him play this past year?
Did you miss him making the quarters of the Usopen and the Semis of the AO, he's got game and is improving.

Nadal has been injured recently, therefore I'm not surprised people have beaten Nadal recently. Berdych and Baghdatis have beaten Fed recently. Your point? I'll tell you: You simply don't have one.

By "unknown" I mean an unknown quantity. I want to see him do more before I'm convinced, that's all. He doesn't have a track record yet. Funny to see you dismiss someone with a proven record of 6 Slams and 16 MS titles to his credit, yet you are willing to tout people with no titles whatsoever as the best thing since sliced bread. Funny to see what mental contortions people will resort to when they are desperate.