Will Nadal get to these milestones?

MadariKatu

Hall of Fame
As of now, Nadal is the only player ever to have won 400+ matches in both clay and hardcourts. With 490 on hardcourt, it is a given that he'll get to 500. On clay, he's at 445. Since there are fewer clay tournaments, he'd need 2-3 good years to get there. I say it's pretty likely he gets it too.

But here is my question: will he pass the players who have more wins than him at each surface?

Current standings:

On hard
4 Nadal 490
3 Agassi 592
2 Djokovic 613 (and counting)
1 Federer 782 (and counting)

On clay
3 Nadal 445
2 Manolo Orantes 569
1 Guillermo Vilas 681

I think Vilas' record will stand there for eternity, unless there are more big tournaments on clay. On a good clay season, you can get something like 25 wins, if I'm not wrong, so he needs to keep this level more at least 5 years or so to get past Orantes. On hard he needs 100 matches to surpass Agassi; at this rate I'd say about 3-4 years or so. Not realistic to get to Djokovic, even less to Federer numbers on hard.

Do you think he will make it?
 

MadariKatu

Hall of Fame
Can you also provide the numbers for grass? :)
Ok, wasn't thinking about grass, since he's too far off from the all-time leaderboard... He might get to Lendl, but don't think he will pass Laver


 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
I don't think he'll come close to the highest totals on each surface.

But on clay, he doesn't need to. Those guys above him played a lot of smaller events to inflate their numbers. I'm sure having 13+ RG titles will have to do.
 

MadariKatu

Hall of Fame
I don't think he'll come close to the highest totals on each surface.

But on clay, he doesn't need to. Those guys above him played a lot of smaller events to inflate their numbers. I'm sure having 13+ RG titles will have to do.
I agree he doesn't need to do it on clay. I guess in a way the question was if he'll keep playing with this winning rate for around 5 years. That is what I roughly estimated would be needed for him to pass Agassi on hard and Orantes on clay.
 
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