At least 5 French Opens
-he already has 2 and is practically a shoe-in for a third consecutive next year. He will be 21 when he wins his third. From there, another 2 almost seems conservative.
At least 2 Australian Opens
-Rebound Ace is slow, takes heavy topspin about as well anything, and has good traction for speedy, change-of-direction players...it is about as kind a court to Nadal's strengths as anything. I'd pick him for 2007 even.
At least 1 US Open
-Nadal won in Montreal last year, which plays about as close to the USO surface as any outdoor hardcourt. Cinci is supposed to be closest, but last year, players commented that Montreal played even faster than Cinci. He also downed the second best indoor-hardcourt player in the world, Ljubicic on a fast indoor court in Madrid on a bum knee. I've seen Rafael flatten out his shots before....he can do so with extreme accuracy, don't kid yourself..I think the adjustment to more aggressive court positioning and risk-taking will depend on how he is coached...he has the tools to evolve his game for faster courts; he is one of the most gifted athletes to play this sport, and shows the desire to adapt, challenging himself to improve on grass, improving his net skills by playing doubles, and already making impressive strides in his serving.
There is much more competition on fast hardcourt in the near future...but with a good draw and the avoidance of Mr. James Blake, Nadal could definitely pocket at least one USO, in two or more years.
At least one Wimbledon :
-much has been said/written about the slowing of the courts at Wimbledon...baseliners have shown only increasing success there. Not so much an issue of the speed of the surface as it is of movement on the surface....his lightning change of direction is hampered by unfamiliarity with the surface...but he is a former soccer stud and seems hungry to improve on grass...one Wimbledon title is not out of the question, albeit not for at least another 3 or 4 years.