Will Novak reach 303 weeks at no. 1?

Is Novak likely to end with 303 or more weeks at number 1?


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falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Can Novak break Roger's record for total weeks at number 1?

Currently he leads Andy by 2,055 points in the race and by 4,695 in the ranking.

At the end of 2016, he will be at 231 weeks*. That'll leave him needing 72 more weeks. Consecutively, he'll have to keep it till late May 2018. (Although he could do it in bits and pieces)

His history at number 1 is as follows:

53 weeks Jul 2011 - Jul 2012
48 weeks Nov 2012 - Oct 2013
130 weeks Jul 2014 - Dec 2016*

Do you think he can do it? Poll will close at the end of the year. Can edit responses till then.


(*assuming this for convenience. Not intended as a slight to Andy or his excellent fans. Easier to remember 231 weeks at year end 2016, rather than 216 in September. Will make relevant changes if Andy takes no 1 in 2016)
 
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I honestly dont see Djokovic losing #1 until sometime in 2019 (at the earliest) given that i see him ending 2017 and 2018 at #1 without losing #1 at any point. So yes I do think he will break the weeks at #1 record.
 

reaper

Legend
May 2018 is a long way away. Djokovic has a number of hurdles to overcome. He's looked more fragile this year with wrist and leg injuries, as well as mentally going AWOL at Wimbledon. Murray probably has two remaining major career ambitions: to win the French and get to number one. He's a chance of usurping Djokovic at least for a short time next year. There are a couple of younger players who could threaten late next year or early 2018 in Thiem and Zverev. To me it looks more a marathon than a Sprint for Djokovic to hold on that long.
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
It will be tough but not impossible. I don't think it will happen but I understand why a lot of people believe Djokovic will break that record. My opinion is based on the historical facts, but the current environment may be very different from what we have seen so far, so it's fair to believe Djokovic will do it. However, I think Djokovic's age means that he will keep on declining and once he is out of no.1 spot, it will be very hard for him to get it back.
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
It depends on how well Novak and Murray play in the next two years. Murray can catch up with him by FO 17 if Novak doesn't pick up his form.
 

Jonas78

Legend
Tough but not impossible. I dont think Djokovic will dominate like he has for the last two years because of two simple reasons: He gets older, and i think the competition will be stronger. Im not saying this is a weak era, but the older guys (born 88 and older) have had the stage alone for some years. Hopefully Thiem, Pouille, Zverev, Kyrgios etc will produce more than the 89-92 guys like Nishikori, Raonic, Goffin and Dimitrov, who never have been any real threat.

But the question is; who will take over the throne after Djoko? :)
 

Cup8489

G.O.A.T.
No, he won't. He's already 29, and it's impressive that the longest stretch he's had is the one he's in, but the signs are showing that he's slowing down and losing his grip. I think by August 2017 he will fall off the #1, perhaps for good.
 
People saying Djokovic wont dominate much longer doesnt mean he will lose #1 anytime soon. Who would take #1 over from him before May 2018 which is all he would need to take the record.

Murray- Older than Djokovic, and has always been owned by Djokovic, and a weaker player. You really think he is likely to stop his run at #1?

Wawrinka- Not consistent enough to be #1, even if he gets more consistent than he is now.

Nishikori- Not really close to Djokovic or #1 caliber now. Would take atleast another 2 years from now, if ever.

Raonic- clearly never #1 caliber.

Kygrios, Thiem- clearly years away.
 
It depends on how well Novak and Murray play in the next two years. Murray can catch up with him by FO 17 if Novak doesn't pick up his form.

Murray wont even defend his clay points from last year. Last year was a dream season for him on clay, I see him just falling further back from Djokovic at that point. Unless he somehow beats Djokovic to win the Australian Open (yeah right) he wont come close.

May 2018 is a long way away. Djokovic has a number of hurdles to overcome. He's looked more fragile this year with wrist and leg injuries, as well as mentally going AWOL at Wimbledon. Murray probably has two remaining major career ambitions: to win the French and get to number one. He's a chance of usurping Djokovic at least for a short time next year. There are a couple of younger players who could threaten late next year or early 2018 in Thiem and Zverev. To me it looks more a marathon than a Sprint for Djokovic to hold on that long.

Talk like Thiem or Zverev being close to being #1 now are just laughable. Sorry. Both are miles away and it wont happen for a LONG time (assuming either are ever #1 worthy players).

The poll results show the apparently general stupidity and delusional-ness of this forum given that only 33% so far think he will do something he is 95% likely to do. The only way he wont is a huge injury.

Also winning the Australian would be a way bigger ambition for Murray than to win the French I am sure. He has already overachieved on clay reaching a RG final at all, but the Australian he has come close to so many times.
 
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KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Maybe. Problem is, the abundance of slower, grindy pusher plexicushion tourmanents, then slow pusher clay tournaments for easy 1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 2000, 2000 points for Nole.

The more elite faster tournaments like Cincy, USO, W etc aren't usually dominated by one player. Making it easy for Nole to push his way to at least 8000+ points before the end of June.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
People saying Djokovic wont dominate much longer doesnt mean he will lose #1 anytime soon. Who would take #1 over from him before May 2018 which is all he would need to take the record.

Murray- Older than Djokovic, and has always been owned by Djokovic, and a weaker player. You really think he is likely to stop his run at #1?

Murray doesn't have to necessarily start beating Djokovic to be #1, all it takes is Djokovic to go out early in a few tournaments and Murray to take full advantage of it. Look at Wimbledon, and had the Olympics contributed to ATP points this year the race would have been closer as well.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
No, he won't. He's already 29, and it's impressive that the longest stretch he's had is the one he's in, but the signs are showing that he's slowing down and losing his grip. I think by August 2017 he will fall off the #1, perhaps for good.
I agree. Murray will have to get his act together, though.
 
Murray doesn't have to necessarily start beating Djokovic to be #1, all it takes is Djokovic to go out early in a few tournaments and Murray to take full advantage of it. Look at Wimbledon, and had the Olympics contributed to ATP points this year the race would have been closer as well.

I get that, but for this to occur Murray has to be doing better (probably much better to overcoming losing to Djokovic most times they play) against the field. And he doesnt, nor is he likely to. Again he is the same age (1 week older technically), just as likely to decline with age/wear, hasnt been close to Djokovic in the rankings in forever, and is both a weaker and less consistent player. So if Murray is the most likely option to overtake Djokovic at #1 before he gets the record, and it seems obvious he is, that just proves Djokovic emphatically is extremely likely to get the record, regardless of wishful thinking to the contrary. Since Murray overtaking Djokovic at #1 while possible, is extremely unlikely.

The silly thing about all this talk about Djokovic's age as his supposabed "unlikeliness" to get to over 300 weeks at #1 is the only guys younger than him in the top 10 are Raonic, Nishikori, or Thiem. So unless you are stupid enough to think one of those guys is going to be #1 in less than 2 years, really ever other than maybe a small shot for Thiem someday, that says enough. Obviously someone who isnt even top 10 yet (eg- Kygrios, Zverev) will take more than 2 years to ever get to #1. You dont just jump to #1 insantly in the mens game ever.
 

TupeloDanger

Professional
People saying Djokovic wont dominate much longer doesnt mean he will lose #1 anytime soon. Who would take #1 over from him before May 2018 which is all he would need to take the record.

Pretty much anyone? It's not like Djokovic beats the Sam Querreys and Jiri Veselys of the Tour reliably any more. And hell, he only made a deep run in the USO because he had a parade of the Walking Dead show up just long enough to hand in their resignation cards. First time he ran into any resistance he curled up in a ball and wept.

When you can't really beat anyone regularly any more, your time at #1 is over.
 
Pretty much anyone? It's not like Djokovic beats the Sam Querreys and Jiri Veselys of the Tour reliably any more. And hell, he only made a deep run in the USO because he had a parade of the Walking Dead show up just long enough to hand in their resignation cards.

When you can't really beat anyone regularly any more, your time at #1 is over.

In his last 2 tournaments he won Canada Masters and reached the U.S Open final where he would have won if Evans had converted his match point vs Wawrinka. Contrast that to world #2 Murray who lost a Masters final to Cilic and lost in the U.S Open quarters to Nishikori. He obviously beats everyone the vast majority of the time still, and more than anyone else. Do you want me to list the players Murray, Wawrinka, and everyone else have lost to this year.
 

reaper

Legend
In his last 2 tournaments he won Canada Masters and reached the U.S Open final where he would have won if Evans had converted his match point vs Wawrinka. Contrast that to world #2 Murray who lost a Masters final to Cilic and lost in the U.S Open quarters to Nishikori. He obviously beats everyone the vast majority of the time still, and more than anyone else. Do you want me to list the players Murray, Wawrinka, and everyone else have lost to this year.

He lost to a guy who can barely beat Dan Evans? It's always good to see someone of no doubt leviathan intellect come on here and tell other people how stupid they are because they hold an opinion that diverges from their own. Some of the players mentioned: Thiem, Pouille, Zverev and co are indeed a long way off being number one now, but one big mistake someone analysing sport can make is to cap the level a young player on an upward spiral can reach or the speed with which they can get there. May 2018 is a long way away and with the tour effectively hollowed out with the absence of quality players in their mid 20's there's little resistance to rising stars who have both talent and dedication.
 
He lost to a guy who can barely beat Dan Evans? It's always good to see someone of no doubt leviathan intellect come on here and tell other people how stupid they are because they hold an opinion that diverges from their own. Some of the players mentioned: Thiem, Pouille, Zverev and co are indeed a long way off being number one now, but one big mistake someone analysing sport can make is to cap the level a young player on an upward spiral can reach or the speed with which they can get there. May 2018 is a long way away and with the tour effectively hollowed out with the absence of quality players in their mid 20's there's little resistance to rising stars who have both talent and dedication.

Yeah whatever, we will see in May 2018 when I am right on Djokovic easily staying #1 and taking the record, like atleast 85% of my tennis predictions are right. I am a fan of his I admit, but I am not predicting that since I am a fan. I would far rather Wawrinka who I like even more take #1 for instance, but I dont predict that since unless others here I am a realist and actually know my tennis. Now if Wawrinka proves me wrong awesome, like I said I would love him taking #1, even if it at the expense of a potential Djokovic record. Even Murray would be great, since while I like him less than Wawrinka or Djokovic, he is the best player in history to not be #1 which is a shame. However unlike others I dont predict very unlikely things with my heart, but instead make rational observerations and surveying of the odds while putting aside any personal biases I might have; and the only rational conclusion for someone knowledgable and objective who thinks it through is Djokovic easily remaining #1 through May 2018 comfortably.

I was the one who laughed at idiots who said Serena wouldnt easily reach atleast 18 slams years ago, and probably atleast 20, and as usual was dead right. I am the one who has won large sums of money on tennis betting. The rest of you are dreamers who just make wild predictions with no basis in reality either in favor of those you love, or against those you hate (for most on this forum Djokovic or Serena).
 

reaper

Legend
Yeah whatever, we will see in May 2018 when I am right on Djokovic easily staying #1 and taking the record, like atleast 85% of my tennis predictions are right. I am a fan of his I admit, but I am not predicting that since I am a fan. I would far rather Wawrinka who I like even more take #1 for instance, but I dont predict that since unless others here I am a realist and actually know my tennis. Now if Wawrinka proves me wrong awesome, like I said I would love him taking #1, even if it at the expense of a potential Djokovic record. Even Murray would be great, since while I like him less than Wawrinka or Djokovic, he is the best player in history to not be #1 which is a shame. However unlike others I dont predict very unlikely things with my heart, but instead make rational observerations and surveying of the odds while putting aside any personal biases I might have; and the only rational conclusion for someone knowledgable and objective who thinks it through is Djokovic easily remaining #1 through May 2018 comfortably.

I was the one who laughed at idiots who said Serena wouldnt easily reach atleast 18 slams years ago, and probably atleast 20, and as usual was dead right. I am the one who has won large sums of money on tennis betting. The rest of you are dreamers who just make wild predictions with no basis in reality either in favor of those you love, or against those you hate (for most on this forum Djokovic or Serena).

Just as a matter of interest do you bet week to week at tour level (or below..Challenger etc), or only on larger events...Masters/Slams?
 
Its almost seeming like 32 and 17 will either both happen or not. One of the things to recollect is that djokovic by his 2011 standards had a comparatively "down" 2012-2014 years, but was able to then peak again and get to multiple slam win years again.

I find it hard to predict decline based on a year in which his performance at slams was w,w,3r,f, and a lack of slam contenders in the new gen.

The thing remaining to be seen is if he can continue to have the hunger after his rg win.
 

ANDYbhGENIUS

Professional
People saying Djokovic wont dominate much longer doesnt mean he will lose #1 anytime soon. Who would take #1 over from him before May 2018 which is all he would need to take the record.

Murray- Older than Djokovic, and has always been owned by Djokovic, and a weaker player. You really think he is likely to stop his run at #1?

Wawrinka- Not consistent enough to be #1, even if he gets more consistent than he is now.

Nishikori- Not really close to Djokovic or #1 caliber now. Would take atleast another 2 years from now, if ever.

Raonic- clearly never #1 caliber.

Kygrios, Thiem- clearly years away.

Djoko and Muzz are the same age, only separated by a mere week.

It is called the "week era"
 
D

Deleted member 716271

Guest
He's gonna get it, he needs a year and a half more. and Murray who's in 2nd now isn't doing great either lately. Djoko will likely be 1 at least until some of his points continue to drop off, assuming he doesn't play well...probably not until after the AO and likely not until after RG. At that point, assuming someone else has played better for a while week in and out (unlikely), they will surpass ND. But Djoko is still likely to be in the top 2 or 3 for a couple more years and will likely take back the 1 spot for several weeks at a time. Consider the fact that Murray is likely to be the one who gets to 1 and he is the same age as Novak. Wawa is probably not consistent enough anyway but he is 2 years older. So no reason ND can't take it back from them and be amongst the top 2 or 3 and in contention for the spot for years to come. Consider Fed was @ 1 for a brief while at age 31. If a younger guy breaks thru and wins a slam, it might still take a while for him to become consistent enough week in and week out to challenge for the top spot(s).
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Can Novak break Roger's record for total weeks at number 1?

Currently he leads Andy by 2,055 points in the race and by 4,695 in the ranking.

At the end of 2016, he will be at 231 weeks*. That'll leave him needing 72 more weeks. Consecutively, he'll have to keep it till late May 2018. (Although he could do it in bits and pieces)

His history at number 1 is as follows:

53 weeks Jul 2011 - Jul 2012
48 weeks Nov 2012 - Oct 2013
130 weeks Jul 2014 - Dec 2016*

Do you think he can do it? Poll will close at the end of the year. Can edit responses till then.


(*assuming this for convenience. Not intended as a slight to Andy or his excellent fans. Easier to remember 231 weeks at year end 2016, rather than 216 in September. Will make relevant changes if Andy takes no 1 in 2016)
It may be bumpier than some think, but he should get to the record. Its possible he gets knocked out for a time and still gets there in 2019.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
He lost to a guy who can barely beat Dan Evans? It's always good to see someone of no doubt leviathan intellect come on here and tell other people how stupid they are because they hold an opinion that diverges from their own. Some of the players mentioned: Thiem, Pouille, Zverev and co are indeed a long way off being number one now, but one big mistake someone analysing sport can make is to cap the level a young player on an upward spiral can reach or the speed with which they can get there. May 2018 is a long way away and with the tour effectively hollowed out with the absence of quality players in their mid 20's there's little resistance to rising stars who have both talent and dedication.
Agree with the bold. Thiem must be feeling chipper as just accepted wild card to Chengdu next week.:confused: Zverev is mounting some impressive stats beginning at US Open. Pouille is improving in leaps and bounds. The trend for these three for the rest of the year needs to be watched closely. Dangerous players like this may not take the number one spot, but by luck of the draw along with Wawa could knock Djokovic from number 1 with some upsets. The same old, same old aging tour is changing quickly as these three along with Kyrgios will all be top 15 shortly (all top 20 in the ATP race atm.)
 

Druss

Hall of Fame
303 weeks? Why not? Heck, even 350 weeks at No1 is possible for Djokovic in this p^*s weak era!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
There are clearly signs that Djokovic is in decline, and is vulnerable on faster surfaces. I don't think he'll ever have a season like 2011 or 2015 again. The question is how it will affect his ranking. Until the French next year, he'll be more susceptible to early losses than this year, so until then he's more likely to drop points then he is to gain then. That's one variable in the equation. The other is about who is gonna take it away from them. IIRC, if you made look at the race since MC, Murray is actually ahead of Djokovic. Now Djokovic is a bit lucky that Murray seems tired as well, so I'm not that sure he'll capitalize on Djokovic having form issues, but I really think that if Murray will bounce back fresh next year and be ready to make a push for #1, especially if Djokovic were to carry his form issues through the winter.

In the race for World #1, Djokovic has been incredibly lucky, with this year being an Olympic year, Murray being dead set on playing Davis Cup, and his absolute cake walk draw to the USO finals. Djokovic got 1000 points of advantage for nothing in Toronto, and the Olympics clearly tired Murray out.

If Murray can't take advantage, I think it will take a fair while. Wawrinka is unlikely, Fed and Nadal out of question, Raonic and Nishikori aren't happening as well. Then we're looking at players who are barely top 10 yet. I really think that as soon as Djokovic starts losing the close calls he's had this year with the likes of Nishikori and loses the odd 2nd round match, he's there for the taking. Question will be when somebody is there to take it. So then you're down to the question whether a player stands up and is able to challenge the slams on all 4 surfaces. I don't see Zverev making a HC run before 2018, I don't see Thiem making a fast HC run before then either, and both have a long way to go anyway. I've been relatively impressed with Kyrgios' constistency this year, he tanked less then I expected him to do, but he also didn't make any deep runs and had bad luck with draws, injuries or lost a crucial match any time he had a shot at going very deep in a slam or 1000. Kyrgios has the game to challenge on HC and grass, and is actually reasonable on clay, but he's losing too many matches to the likes of Berdman and Nishikori in crucial moments, and keeps drawing Murray in slams who he doesn't believe he can beat.

In short, Djokovic is incredibly lucky. He's been very consistent, the players who could challenge his position short term are either his pidgeons, declining harder, inconsistent, and his main challenger has had a matchup issue. The youngsters are probably long enough off for Djokovic to get the record.

Now there's one player I haven't discussed, and I'm slowly starting to believe in him for #1 next year.

Pouille in 5.
 

uliks

Banned
He has great chance. He only needs one more year (2017) to be on his usual standard of consistency to do it. He doesn't even need spectacular year ala 2015 or 2011. All he needs is another 2012, or 2014 or even 2013 and he will finish the job easily!
 
O

OhYes

Guest
He is more stable now as No.1 than before. People are saying that it's long way to surpassing Federer's record, but even with an injury that made him lost points at Wimby and UO, Murray still couldn't catch him, and even though Brits started large campaign for Murray as new No.1.
Lot of things should align right to dethrone Novak from his position. Mind also Wimby 2017 and tournaments after it. There will be points Novak should collect and regain domination.
Best scenario should be - Murray to win lots of tournaments and Novak to lose them. :rolleyes: Just can't see that happening.
 
Hey @helterskelter

My source is this website
http://www.tennis-x.com/stats/atprankhist.shtml

According to this Djoker is on 216 weeks counting the week of sept 12th. Add another 15 weeks for 2016 and that's how I got 231 at year end.

Hope that helps.

Yes, that's right, but we're currently in the (last day of the) week of September 19th! So he's on 217 weeks this week, and will start his 218th week on Monday. I guess it depends on whether you count the week once the ranking list is published or only when the next ranking list is published.
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Yes, that's right, but we're currently in the (last day of the) week of September 19th! So he's on 217 weeks this week, and will start his 218th week on Monday. I guess it depends on whether you count the week once the ranking list is published or only when the next ranking list is published.

Either way I'm looking at where he will be at year end.

Do you agree it will be 231?
 

ANDYbhGENIUS

Professional
There are clearly signs that Djokovic is in decline, and is vulnerable on faster surfaces. I don't think he'll ever have a season like 2011 or 2015 again. The question is how it will affect his ranking. Until the French next year, he'll be more susceptible to early losses than this year, so until then he's more likely to drop points then he is to gain then. That's one variable in the equation. The other is about who is gonna take it away from them. IIRC, if you made look at the race since MC, Murray is actually ahead of Djokovic. Now Djokovic is a bit lucky that Murray seems tired as well, so I'm not that sure he'll capitalize on Djokovic having form issues, but I really think that if Murray will bounce back fresh next year and be ready to make a push for #1, especially if Djokovic were to carry his form issues through the winter.

In the race for World #1, Djokovic has been incredibly lucky, with this year being an Olympic year, Murray being dead set on playing Davis Cup, and his absolute cake walk draw to the USO finals. Djokovic got 1000 points of advantage for nothing in Toronto, and the Olympics clearly tired Murray out.

If Murray can't take advantage, I think it will take a fair while. Wawrinka is unlikely, Fed and Nadal out of question, Raonic and Nishikori aren't happening as well. Then we're looking at players who are barely top 10 yet. I really think that as soon as Djokovic starts losing the close calls he's had this year with the likes of Nishikori and loses the odd 2nd round match, he's there for the taking. Question will be when somebody is there to take it. So then you're down to the question whether a player stands up and is able to challenge the slams on all 4 surfaces. I don't see Zverev making a HC run before 2018, I don't see Thiem making a fast HC run before then either, and both have a long way to go anyway. I've been relatively impressed with Kyrgios' constistency this year, he tanked less then I expected him to do, but he also didn't make any deep runs and had bad luck with draws, injuries or lost a crucial match any time he had a shot at going very deep in a slam or 1000. Kyrgios has the game to challenge on HC and grass, and is actually reasonable on clay, but he's losing too many matches to the likes of Berdman and Nishikori in crucial moments, and keeps drawing Murray in slams who he doesn't believe he can beat.

In short, Djokovic is incredibly lucky. He's been very consistent, the players who could challenge his position short term are either his pidgeons, declining harder, inconsistent, and his main challenger has had a matchup issue. The youngsters are probably long enough off for Djokovic to get the record.

Now there's one player I haven't discussed, and I'm slowly starting to believe in him for #1 next year.

Pouille in 5.

Very good post, but if Pouille is your best bet, you need to do some examining again, as Lucas is very flamboyant, can choke, as all the french, and is nowhere near the level of consistency needed to be and stay #1.

Djok will break the record barring freak injuries, as his rivals for that throne are simply too weak or unstable. Someone from the younger Generation needs to stand up proudly and fearlessly, to dethrone a fit but aging Nole.
 

Achilles82

Professional
Not sure. If you asked me 6 months ago, I would've said 100% sure. But since he won RG something changed, which he confirmed. If he starts playing again like at start of 2016, then yes. But he just might be sick of playing tennis, and wanting to just retire and do other things in life.
 
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