D
Deleted member 25923
Guest
Will Federer break Sampras 286 weeks at no. 1 record?
IvanAndreevich
Legend
I think the right answer is maybe.
Just needs two weeks
A definite maybe. I do think that if he continues to progress like he has from Wimbledon to the WTF he is in for a chance to break this record.
The 2010 season end finals were the first time I have seen since 2007 Federer actually dominating Murray, Djokovic and Nadal. By dominating I don't mean just winning, but winning easily and convincingly.
A definite maybe. I do think that if he continues to progress like he has from Wimbledon to the WTF he is in for a chance to break this record.
The 2010 season end finals were the first time I have seen since 2007 Federer actually dominating Murray, Djokovic and Nadal. By dominating I don't mean just winning, but winning easily and convincingly.
OrangePower
Legend
I give it a 60% chance.
Fed has a comfortable lead in ranking points over Murray, Djokovic, etc, and I think he can continue to hold them off over the next 2-3 years.
So the real question is Nadal. I don't think Fed can overtake a healthy Nadal. But: Given Rafa's history, I think it's likely that sometime over the next few years, Rafa will have another injury situation that requires him to take a couple of months off. And if that happens, Fed can make up enough ground to squeeze in a couple more weeks at #1.
Fed has a comfortable lead in ranking points over Murray, Djokovic, etc, and I think he can continue to hold them off over the next 2-3 years.
So the real question is Nadal. I don't think Fed can overtake a healthy Nadal. But: Given Rafa's history, I think it's likely that sometime over the next few years, Rafa will have another injury situation that requires him to take a couple of months off. And if that happens, Fed can make up enough ground to squeeze in a couple more weeks at #1.
LameTennisPlayer
Professional
I hope he does.
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nikdom
Guest
A slightly pessimistic maybe. Roger will have to perform very consistently through the season to do that - I haven't seen that this year from him, even after the USO where Annacone's influence brought Roger a lot of success.
There have been surprise losses to players even as he held match points - that tells me he does not feel invincible in his own head nor does the locker room. So he's good for a GS or two (yeah, poor declining Roger), but number YE 1 is out of the question and a week or two at #1 is a 50-60% chance.
There have been surprise losses to players even as he held match points - that tells me he does not feel invincible in his own head nor does the locker room. So he's good for a GS or two (yeah, poor declining Roger), but number YE 1 is out of the question and a week or two at #1 is a 50-60% chance.
Cup8489
G.O.A.T.
never say never. it was expected to take 3 months for the coach's influence to appear, and once it did he went on a pretty impressive run. If it continues to work out as well as it has, I dont see why he couldn't do it.
kishnabe
Talk Tennis Guru
Federer has a chance if he does well everywhere but he can really pick up points at IW,Miami, MC(If he wants), and Rome. Federer does real well at the slams maybe would take 0-3 this year but can reach the tail end of slams.
Nadal....I don't see him defending one of his Clay MS, and defintly not defending his US open!
So It really wiffy....a lot of factors....better to ask when Roger is at least 1000 points or less in difference to Nadal!
Nadal....I don't see him defending one of his Clay MS, and defintly not defending his US open!
So It really wiffy....a lot of factors....better to ask when Roger is at least 1000 points or less in difference to Nadal!
DownTheLine
Hall of Fame
Nadal won't even get close to defending his points and Federer has a good share to gain seeing he went out in the quarters at both the FO an wimby. Then he lost early in 3 MS's this year.
Justin Side
Hall of Fame
Good luck with that.
Justin Side
Hall of Fame
He'll finish with over 300 weeks at #1.
bezs
G.O.A.T.
First he's got to show up and play well at smaller events to his benefit there were a few unexpected losses in early rounds this year so if he does well he bags a decent load of ranking points. Obviously he also has to hope Nadal falters in some events he did well in 2010, its tough but never say never and i hope he achieves it.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Why not? The Clay season is basically a given, he went out in the Quarters of the AO, He will prob make it at least to the Wimby final, he lost early at queens, and the past 3 years he has made at LEAST the semi's of the USO. It's pretty likely he will get close, if not about the same.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
You'd be shocked if Rafa improves next year, yet that will be his goal. And no medical issues since he replaced doctors at the beginning of 2010. He had tendonitis flareups twice in 2010 (once in each knee) but this time the blood-spinning treatment fixed each knee perfectly and no complaints since that treatment, 3 slams.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
True, but its been damn close to a given since 2005.
Roger No.1
Rookie
I was doing some point calculations and theoretically the earliest Fed can get to #1 is after Monte Carlo assuming he wins everything and Nadal loses some points from 2010 but realistically if he wins AO and gets to at least the finals of most events up to Wimbledon then he will most likely overtake Nadal even if Nadal defends all of his points.
Bobby Jr
G.O.A.T.
I wont be shocked at all if he improves his game - but there is bordering on zero chance he will improve on his 2010 results in 2011.
This year for large chunks of the year his key peers were either injured or oddly out of form. The chance of that happening at a similar level again seems unlikely.
The chance of one player having a great day and taking Nadal out - as in the 2008 AO, the 2009 FO or the 2009 USO will be higher in 2011 with Federer seemingly playing better, Murray and Djokovic showing they're finally maturing more and Del Potro returning as a potential 'spoiler' player when he finds some of his previous form.
Re: the blood-spinning treatment. How many times do you have to mention it before you win the blood spinning circle-jerk?
You should put you money where your mouth is aye. How about: if Nadal doesn't win 3 slams in 2011 you leave this board forever. If he does, I will.
Tennis sensation
Legend
Maybe. It depends on a lot of factors. I think if he will not be able to defend AO then it will be very very difficult for him to be #1 again
dandelion_smiley
Banned
As for now, it's a decent chance. If Fed defends his Australian Open title, his chances are huge BUT he has to do it till end of Wimbledon.
Make a poll people
Make a poll people
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Bud
Bionic Poster
If Rafa is injured again and misses a couple big tournaments
- -
If he fails in 2011, it won't happen.
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1
15_ounce
Guest
http://www.tennis.com/articles/templates/news.aspx?articleid=7843&zoneid=25
Nadal's doctor says injuries may flare up again
Friday, September 24, 2010
Mikel Sanchez, the surgeon who treated Rafael Nadal's knees earlier this year, tells Marca that the injury has healed but the physical toll of training and playing could cause it to re-occur at some stage.
dandelion_smiley
Banned
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
Yes, it is of course possible.
It does depend on many factors. How well does Nadal do, if any player breaks the pack and makes a sustained strike at Fedal, and his own focus and hunger to be number one.
Sure he would love to be number one, who wouldn't, but is he willing to agressively chase it, by accumilating points in tournaments outside of the slams? Or staying healthy for the slams, since he does not have many years left to compete of them, is more important, and let the results take care of themselves.
He always said, that if he plays well, the results take care of themselves. If someone plays better than him, like Rafa has in the past, then too good, but he is too talented to be ruled out of not having a chance. Especially after having the best finish to a season he has had in a while.
I also hope that he does not take it if Rafa is injured, however injuries are part of the package. And for anyone who thinks that if Rafa is healthy, Roger won't ever win it, is discrediting the whole ATP tour. A healthy Rafa can be beaten, and has been beaten, he is not a God, please don't make him out to be one. And that goes for Roger too.
It does depend on many factors. How well does Nadal do, if any player breaks the pack and makes a sustained strike at Fedal, and his own focus and hunger to be number one.
Sure he would love to be number one, who wouldn't, but is he willing to agressively chase it, by accumilating points in tournaments outside of the slams? Or staying healthy for the slams, since he does not have many years left to compete of them, is more important, and let the results take care of themselves.
He always said, that if he plays well, the results take care of themselves. If someone plays better than him, like Rafa has in the past, then too good, but he is too talented to be ruled out of not having a chance. Especially after having the best finish to a season he has had in a while.
I also hope that he does not take it if Rafa is injured, however injuries are part of the package. And for anyone who thinks that if Rafa is healthy, Roger won't ever win it, is discrediting the whole ATP tour. A healthy Rafa can be beaten, and has been beaten, he is not a God, please don't make him out to be one. And that goes for Roger too.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Not only "may" they flare up again, they already did in 2010. He got tendonitis in both knees, once early in the year and the other knee during Roland Garros. Except this time, his doctor used the right method of blood-spinning treatment. 2010 was identical to 2009 except he had the right treatment this time. He'll get tendonitis every year of his career, but that has never been the issue. The issue is the treatment, and thanks to his new doctor, that no longer is a cause for concern.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
I don't read the future, and I don't make bets. All I said was you will be shocked if he improves his game in 2011. And I said that because the only outcomes you were considering was that he'd not defend his points or he'd have a chance albeit small of doing so. You didn't even consider the possibility of him actually having a better 2011 than 2010. That isn't very open-minded of you, that's all I'm saying.
Totai
Professional
Blood spinning treatment? sounds like voodoo to me.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Once somebody plays at a consistently high level it tests Federer's shankerliciousness, and that's when the danger comes. Rafa didn't play well consistently in the WTF Final. In fact few did play consistently well at the WTF. But Murray beat Federer a couple of weeks before it, with ease.
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
- Yes, when someone plays consistently well, it does test Federer, as we saw in RG, W and USO.
- Rafa did play well in WTF final, Federer was just better. IMO, when Rafa found out that Federer's backhand was not going to breakdown, he did not have a plan B.
- Yes, few played well consistently at the WTF, I agree with this. However, few played well at RG, W and USO consistently this year also.
- Yes, Murray was too good for Federer in Shanghai. I think it was his best perfomance against him, Roger did not know what hit him TBH.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
I'm not going to make excuses, Rafa wasn't injured in the WTF Final, nothing like that, but I think we all saw Rafa not running for everything during the Final. No doubt the Murray match took a lot out of him. So I can't agree with the idea that Rafa played well. That's the price of not dominating your semi-final, and that's what Rafa has to improve on, he needs to start dominating Murray more.
dandelion_smiley
Banned
What stopped Nadal from beating Murray 6-4 6-2 like Federer did in the exact same tournament? If he can't handle Murray faster, who is he to blame? Either beat him quickly or shut the *** up.
/nadal slam king
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
I am glad that you do not want to make up excuses. But, you kind of contradicted yourself by saying he was tired. Sure that match took its toll, but considering that Federer had played five straight weeks, you would think he would be feeling the effects also.
So you don't have to agree, that is okay. But I think he played well, but was just stunned by Federer's form, as was everyone else that week.
Cyan
Hall of Fame
Probably. But he will only regain the #1 for a few weeks.
Well. If he gets a very lucky draw at a slam and plays the likes of Denko and Tsonga in slam QF and SF and scared Murray in the finals, like the last time he won the AO, then yes he can win a slam.
Well. If he gets a very lucky draw at a slam and plays the likes of Denko and Tsonga in slam QF and SF and scared Murray in the finals, like the last time he won the AO, then yes he can win a slam.
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D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
Davy was the guy that NO-ONE wanted in their quarter, especially after he had been beating EVERYONE left and right in the weeks leading into the event. And Federer had to work really hard to win that match. Hardly a lucky draw.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Blame? What's that got to do with anything? I'm telling you it's Rafa's problem that he has so much trouble putting Murray away. So of course he only has himself to blame. When did I imply that he blame someone else? Where's your anger come from regarding this?
Cyan
Hall of Fame
Actually, Murray was the guy nobody wanted in their QF at the AO since Murray had reached a slam final on HC before, something Denko has never done at any slam...
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Exactly, Davy is a 3-set-man, Murray is Rafa's worst nightmare.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Federer lost a set 3-6 to Rafa in the Final, without Rafa doing anything special, so I can't say I was stunned by Federer's form. And I think a match vs Murray, the most exhausting matchup Rafa can get on a hardcourt is a lot more difficult than the consistent several weeks of tennis that Federer played. In fact that's an understatement
Cyan
Hall of Fame
Definetely. On HC. At RG and Wimbledon Murray can't take a set off Rafa.
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