Will Roger ever break Ken's record?

Spencer Gore

Spencer Gore

Legend
So, Ken Rosewall remains the oldest winner of a slam in the Open Era. How many more chances do you think Federer will get to break that record?
 
Fed isn't beating this improved Novak in any slam, Wimbledon included.

If they meet at W or USO this year, he will come empty handed once more.

Which brings us to 2021.
 
Age-based records, in athletic sports, always favor earlier generations.

Less developed sport = less pros = less competition = more likely you can stay at #1 with reduced athleticism (caused by age).

The more developed the sport gets, the smaller the skill gap gets between players, and the more athleticism matters.

And before someone mentions Nadal-Fed-Djokovic vs next gen; I believe we are witnessing a temporary exception to the rule.
 
NoleFam said:
Federer is a master tennis player. The way he can still play is crazy and I wouldn't be surprised if he bagged another Slam before he retires.
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Fair comment. Circumstances were weird today, but he did come close to having a chance to breadstick the prohibitive favorite Djokr while hampered. I'm not certain (who could be?) he will bag another slam. But I'm certain he'll have chances bc his last 4 slams results were SF, QF, F, SF.
 
oldmanfan said:
Fair comment. Circumstances were weird today, but he did come close to having a chance to breadstick the prohibitive favorite Djokr while hampered. I'm not certain (who could be?) he will bag another slam. But I'm certain he'll have chances bc his last 4 slams results were SF, QF, F, SF.
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I just think he needs Djokovic out of his way, be in good form and he wins #21. He can totally do it at Wimbledon with no problem even at 38, almost 39, in my opinion. He almost did it last year by going through both Nadal and Djokovic.
 
jimjam said:
Age-based records, in athletic sports, always favor earlier generations.

Less developed sport = less pros = less competition = more likely you can stay at #1 with reduced athleticism (caused by age).

The more developed the sport gets, the smaller the skill gap gets between players, and the more athleticism matters.

And before someone mentions Nadal-Fed-Djokovic vs next gen; I believe we are witnessing a temporary exception to the rule.
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LOL!!!
 
NoleFam said:
I just think he needs Djokovic out of his way, be in good form and he wins #21. He can totally do it at Wimbledon with no problem even at 38, almost 39, in my opinion. He almost did it last year by going through both Nadal and Djokovic.
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I do think with Djokr out of the way, Fedr's slam chances increase by a lot, but I don't think it's required for a slam win (as you've eluded to WB19). Since 2018, Fedr has played Djokr close every time when healthy.

I don't know if you've noticed, but Djokr has only managed to win sets by a-break-up when Fedr has been hampered (Cinci18 (hand-injury still, Fedr had no business even making the finals), AO20 (groin injury, should've lost twice already). In contrast, Djoker has not managed to win any sets against Fedr by a-break-up when Fedr was healthy (WB19 (won by 3 TBs), WTF19 (SS loss), Bercy18 (Fedr was still recovering from the hand-ailment that he said only fully heal at beginning 2019, even still, Djokr won in 3 by 2 TBs).

If they are both healthy, in the next 12 months, at most I put Fedovic matches at 60-40 Djokr (tho I'm a bit more inclined to 55-45 Djokr).

Hampered Fedr or not, Djokr played well today. Kudos.

I'm looking foward to more Fedovic encounters this year. :)
 
I think his last chance is probably WImbledon this year. RG is a huge LOL and he hasn't done well at the U.S Open even when he gets easy draws in forever now. Which is super strange, and hard to get, but he has some bad karma there lately.

The up and comers are starting to get stronger slowly but surely, and Djokovic and Nadal are still going strong, so next year will probably be too late going on 40.
 
oldmanfan said:
I do think with Djokr out of the way, Fedr's slam chances increase by a lot, but I don't think it's required for a slam win (as you've eluded to WB19). Since 2018, Fedr has played Djokr close every time when healthy.

I don't know if you've noticed, but Djokr has only managed to win sets by a-break-up when Fedr has been hampered (Cinci18 (hand-injury still, Fedr had no business even making the finals), AO20 (groin injury, should've lost twice already). In contrast, Djoker has not managed to win any sets against Fedr by a-break-up when Fedr was healthy (WB19 (won by 3 TBs), WTF19 (SS loss), Bercy18 (Fedr was still recovering from the hand-ailment that he said only fully heal at beginning 2019, even still, Djokr won in 3 by 2 TBs).

If they are both healthy, in the next 12 months, at most I put Fedovic matches at 60-40 Djokr (tho I'm a bit more inclined to 55-45 Djokr).

Hampered Fedr or not, Djokr played well today. Kudos.

I'm looking foward to more Fedovic encounters this year. :)
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Yea but I feel like Djokovic played far below his best in that Wimbledon match. I just don't think Federer is going to get a worse version in a Slam to take advantage. It would be better if someone else beat him, plus it removes that pressure.

I think in Bercy he was 0/12 on breakpoints so again below par performance there, and the match could have been more straighforward if he took his chances.

I think 60/40 Djokovic is fair. I think though that Federer needs Djokovic to be off his game to beat him in a BO5 at this stage of their careers.
 
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This Australian Open was encouraging. Even in horrible form and later with a groin injury, Fed still somehow found himself in the semis. Now imagine if Djokovic had been upset and Fed all of a sudden is the favorite to make the final from his half.

It does seem like he’d need Djokovic to lose to have a real shot, but crazier things have happened. I look forward to Wimbledon.
 
NoleFam said:
Yea but I feel like Djokovic played far below his best in that Wimbledon match. I just don't think Federer is going to get a worse version in a Slam to take advantage. It would be better if someone else best him, plus it removes that pressure.

I think in Bercy he was 0/12 on breakpoints so again below par performance there, and the match could have been more straighforward if he took his chances.

I think 60/40 Djokovic is fair. I think though that Federer needs Djokovic to be off his game to beat him in a BO5 at this stage of their careers.
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It is not like even if Djokovic is taken out that Federer has a free ride to any title at this point. RG he stands no shot with or without Djokovic, Djokovic isn't even the biggest obstacle there anyway, but RG is a no go for Federer and not even worth discussing. The U.S Open he has had problems performing even with some relatively easy Nadal esque draws of late. Not sure Djokovic being in or out of the draw makes much difference, it has been since 2015 he lost to Djokovic or Nadal or any big player there. Someone like Millman is even super dangerous for Federer if they meet at this point, their last 2 slam matches were a win for Millman, and a razor thin win for Federer, so it isn't a fluke, at this stage of Federer's career even he is dangerous for Federer, in addition to numerous others outside the very top group.

I like Federer better than Djokovic but a 60/40 ratio as odds is crazy. Maybe at Wimbledon it might be close to that (even that is iffy), anywhere else it is much more in favor of Djokovic.
 
quirotkicks said:
It is not like even if Djokovic is taken out that Federer has a free ride to any title at this point. RG he stands no shot with or without Djokovic, Djokovic isn't even the biggest obstacle there anyway, but RG is a no go for Federer and not even worth discussing. The U.S Open he has had problems performing even with some relatively easy Nadal esque draws of late. Not sure Djokovic being in or out of the draw makes much difference, it has been since 2015 he lost to Djokovic or Nadal or any big player there. Someone like Millman is even super dangerous for Federer if they meet at this point, their last 2 slam matches were a win for Millman, and a razor thin win for Federer, so it isn't a fluke, at this stage of Federer's career even he is dangerous for Federer, in addition to numerous others outside the very top group.

I like Federer better than Djokovic but a 60/40 ratio as odds is crazy. Maybe at Wimbledon it might be close to that (even that is iffy), anywhere else it is much more in favor of Djokovic.
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Yea RG is definitely off the table and USO probably is as well. I'm more thinking about Wimbledon especially with an outside chance at AO, although I think that would be harder for him to win based on the reasons you just outlined. I think Wimbledon is really his best shot.
 
NoleFam said:
Yea RG is definitely off the table and USO probably is as well. I'm more thinking about Wimbledon especially with an outside chance at AO, although I think that would be harder for him to win based on the reasons you just outline. I think Wimbledon is really his best shot.
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Like I said I think Wimbledon this year is his last semi good shot. Maybe really slim shots at the Australian and Wimbledon next year, but the up and comers seem to be slowly finding their way and he is only getting older so those odds will go down further. I expect by next year he will probably be no higher than 6th favorite for most slams.
 
Spencer Gore said:
So, Ken Rosewall remains the oldest winner of a slam in the Open Era. How many more chances do you think Federer will get to break that record?
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Highly unlikely now. I felt he had a real shot in Australia given they changed the surface to GreenSet.

Losing to Djokovic again, added to a straight set loss to Nadal at French last year and his inability for whatever reason to make an impact in New York makes it impossible to see where a Major comes from. Over two years since he won one.

A realistic aim is perhaps breaking Connors record of 109 by playing more smaller events?
 
NoleFam said:
Yea RG is definitely off the table and USO probably is as well. I'm more thinking about Wimbledon especially with an outside chance at AO, although I think that would be harder for him to win based on the reasons you just outlined. I think Wimbledon is really his best shot.
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Cannot see him ever beating Djokovic at wimbledon. Last year Djokovic was terrible in the final and still won.

Djokovic was not great today on another low bouncing court federer likes (same court as Basel) and won in straight sets.

Then you have Nadal in Paris and New York. And now Thiem who has a winning h2h over Federer. It will never happen. 20 Majors is not too bad though.
 
Courierfh said:
Cannot see him ever beating Djokovic at wimbledon. Last year Djokovic was terrible in the final and still won.

Djokovic was not great today on another low bouncing court federer likes (same court as Basel) and won in straight sets.

Then you have Nadal in Paris and New York. And now Thiem who has a winning h2h over Federer. It will never happen. 20 Majors is not too bad though.
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Probably not so he needs Djokovic out of his way.

I thought Djokovic was really good in those last two sets though.

I still give him a chance because of what he can produce on the day. He was really good last night despite being below 100%.
 
Hope Fed can win an easy cakewalk Wimbledon to cap off his career. Don’t really care about him beating Djokovic after the travesty of 2019 final, he’s beaten Djokovic everywhere at his prime so has nothing to prove against him. I’d rather he lost and Fed won vs Bautista Agut or someone.
 
KINGROGER said:
Hope Fed can win an easy cakewalk Wimbledon to cap off his career. Don’t really care about him beating Djokovic after the travesty of 2019 final, he’s beaten Djokovic everywhere at his prime so has nothing to prove against him. I’d rather he lost and Fed won vs Bautista Agut or someone.
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Nothing to prove?

I am afraid looking at the statistics that is contentious. I have not checked the numbers but my recollection is Federer has a less than ideal record against Djokovic and Nadal at Majors going back many years.
 
Courierfh said:
Nothing to prove?

I am afraid looking at the statistics that is contentious. I have not checked the numbers but my recollection is Federer has a less than ideal record against Djokovic and Nadal at Majors going back many years.
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He’s beaten them everywhere except Nadal at RG. Nadal USO goes both ways.

he’s the best player ever. It’s only his choking and age disadvantage which has kept the race so close.
 
KINGROGER said:
He’s beaten them everywhere except Nadal at RG. Nadal USO goes both ways.

he’s the best player ever. It’s only his choking and age disadvantage which has kept the race so close.
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No i do not see anybody now saying he is the best ever. Before todays match many commentators were saying how crucial this match was historically after their Wimbledon match.

As Djokovic said, he is one of the greatest ever. That is a spot on judgement.
 
Courierfh said:
No i do not see anybody now saying he is the best ever. Before todays match many commentators were saying how crucial this match was historically after their Wimbledon match.

As Djokovic said, he is one of the greatest ever. That is a spot on judgement.
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He’s the best player to pick up a racket. Couldn’t care less how many wins Djokovic racks up over geriatric fed post 2012.
 
KINGROGER said:
He’s the best player to pick up a racket. Couldn’t care less how many wins Djokovic racks up over geriatric fed post 2012.
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Evidence does not back that up though does it. Federer was 30 in 2012. Nadal and Djokovic are far older yet utterly dominating. It is astonishing that it looks like two players with a combined age of 67 will have a total lock down on the Majors.
 
I genuinely believe he can still win Wimbledon again but probably realistically will have only 2 more attempts. I also think though that he will need Djokovic to be taken out by somebody as Federer beating him in a slam is clearly an impossibility even at Wimbledon.
 
KINGROGER said:
he’s the best player ever. It’s only his choking and age disadvantage which has kept the race so close.
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He gives the illusion of being the best simply because he's the only remaining player able to play efficiently from any part of the court: after 2000, all new generations became baseline bot players unable to cover the net if their life was on the line.

He understood very well the strategic implications of this with his BH slices and drop shots.

I challenge you to go back in 2002 and see Henman torturing Fed from any place on the court.
 
KINGROGER said:
He’s the best player to pick up a racket. Couldn’t care less how many wins Djokovic racks up over geriatric fed post 2012.
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Djokovic has a minimum of 2-3 more seasons of playing slams barring injury. It seems inevitable that he will surpass most of Federer's records including the slam count. Given the head to head stats as well, I'm afraid it will be very difficult to put Federer above Djokovic in GOAT status.
 
Courierfh said:
Evidence does not back that up though does it. Federer was 30 in 2012. Nadal and Djokovic are far older yet utterly dominating. It is astonishing that it looks like two players with a combined age of 67 will have a total lock down on the Majors.
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Federer 2014-2016 competition: peak Djokovic (arguably top 5 of all time, top 3 open era)

Djokovic 2018- present competition: 38 year old Federer, pigeon version of Nadal, one armed Del Potro, Anderson etc.
 
Terry Tibbs said:
Djokovic has a minimum of 2-3 more seasons of playing slams barring injury. It seems inevitable that he will surpass most of Federer's records including the slam count. Given the head to head stats as well, I'm afraid it will be very difficult to put Federer above Djokovic in GOAT status.
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I agree but I still won’t view him as the better tennis player just because of a now 5 year long period with no challenging young players. Maybe Thiem/Zverev can change that on Sunday.
 
The ship already sank a while ago. Wimbledon 2019 was his last chance and he blew it. 20 is his final number.
:)
 
KINGROGER said:
Hope Fed can win an easy cakewalk Wimbledon to cap off his career. Don’t really care about him beating Djokovic after the travesty of 2019 final, he’s beaten Djokovic everywhere at his prime so has nothing to prove against him. I’d rather he lost and Fed won vs Bautista Agut or someone.
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I heard Baghdatis is coming out of retirement, they offered him to play directly in Wimbledon final.
 
KINGROGER said:
Federer 2014-2016 competition: peak Djokovic (arguably top 5 of all time, top 3 open era)

Djokovic 2018- present competition: 38 year old Federer, pigeon version of Nadal, one armed Del Potro, Anderson etc.
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Please explain why Nadal and Djokovic have locked down the Majors and top 2 ranking spots at 34 and 33? I do not recall Federer doing the same or any other player in history.

Why so resentful? Just appreciate and accept the fact Nadal and Djokovic have moved tennis to new heights and admire them. Tennis fans admire all the greats. Federer has had a wonderful career.
 
Terry Tibbs said:
Djokovic has a minimum of 2-3 more seasons of playing slams barring injury. It seems inevitable that he will surpass most of Federer's records including the slam count. Given the head to head stats as well, I'm afraid it will be very difficult to put Federer above Djokovic in GOAT status.
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It's true that we may have to accept that Novak Djokovic is the GOAT when all is said and done in this era. (Not yet though, despite his fanboys' constant threads)

It will be a travesty for a major sport that such a man will be its GOAT, but objectively, this could well happen.
 
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