dellealpi10
Rookie
(Opinion of Mr Lon Shapiro, professional tennis coach)
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Federer’s abiility to recover mentally
Here’s a list of Federer’s most devastating losses and how Federer responded:
2008 Wimbledon (Nadal I): after some health issues and the first real slump of his career, Federer got destroyed at the French Open and then converted only 1 of 13 break points against Nadal to lose one of the greatest matches of all time. Federer continued to struggle that summer, but came back to win the US Open.
2009 Australian (Nadal II): this was the famous final where Nadal consoled a teary-eyed Federer after another epic 5-set match. After struggling at the winter hard court events, Federer won Madrid (beating Nadal on clay), the French Open (after Nadal lost to Soderling), Wimbledon, and Cincinnati, before losing in the finals of the US Open, ending the year as #1.
2010 US Open (Djokovic I): Federer blew two match points in the US Open semi-finals against Djokovic. Federer came back to win Basel and the ATP Finals.
2011 Australian Open (Djokovic II): Federer lost in straight sets to Djokovic in the semi-finals. Federer beat Djokovic at Roland Garros in the semi-finals.
2011 US Open (Djokovic III): Federer again blew two match points in the US Open semi-finals against Djokovic. Federer came back to win his last three tournaments of the year (Basel, Paris, ATP Finals).
2012 Australian Open (Nadal III): Federer lost to his nemesis again in a Slam, this time in four sets. Federer won 6 titles (Rotterdam, Dubai, beat Nadal en route to winning the Indian Wells Masters, Madrid Masters, Wimbledon, Cincinnati Masters) and regained the #1 ranking.
2014–2015: A combination of age, injuries and superior play by Djokovic and Nadal made these “forgettable” years: no Grand Slams, but 5 titles and winning the Davis Cup in 2014 and 6 titles in 2015.
Federer lost in the 2015 US Open finals to Djokovic and only won 4 of 23 break points, a pattern that has continued since Wimbledon 2008.
2016 (injuries): Federer started the season sick losing to Raonic in the Finals at Brisbane. He lost to Djokovic in four sets at the Australian Open, then hurt his knee the next day. When Federer Knew His Knee Might Not Be The Same | ATP Tour | Tennis
I think it’s safe to say that the only scarring Federer felt this year was from his injuries. He came back two months after surgery and tried to play, but suffered a back injury in practice at Madrid, forcing him to withdraw from that tournament, Rome, and the French Open (breaking a record run of 65 consecutive Slams). He tried to come back for the grass court tournaments, but lost to guys he has dominated (Cilic and Raonic), then quite the tour for the rest of the year. In 2017, Federer came back to win 7 titles (Australian Open, Wimbledon, 3 Masters 1000 titles (Indian Wells, Miami, Shanghai) moved back up to #2 in the world, and BEAT NADAL 4 STRAIGHT TIMES.
Through incredible resolve, hard work, mutliple coaches and a racket change, Federer finally figured out how to beat Nadal, his #1 nemesis.
You have to realize that prior to 2015, Federer was 10–23 vs Nadal, and 19–17 vs Djokovic. Nadal has always been Federer’s bete noire. Federer has always gone into matches thinking he could beat Djokovic, even during the Serb’s incredible run in 2011.
The idea that Federer is scared to play Djokovic is laughable and an example of recency bias. Since Federer turned 33, he is only 3–10 against Djokovic (almost 6 years his junior). Even for an all-time great like Federer, Djokovic has an edge in physical conditioning that continue to grow with time.
That’s what made the Wimbledon final so unexpected and exciting - Federer hadn’t pushed Djokovic to a fifth set in 5 years (2014 Wimbledon).
At almost 38, Federer outplayed Djokovic for most of their 4 hour, 55-minute final (the longest in Wimbledon history).
I was amazed just to see him able to hang with Djokovic in the fifth set, let alone get to match point. Instead of mouthing excuses that Djokovic didn’t play well, we need to appreciate how much Federer’s attacking game forced Djokovic into making errors.
Maybe the fans don’t get it, but Djokovic seems to be say just that.
I hope readers will understand that Federer, like Nadal and Djokovic, has a supernatural amount of mental toughness. The idea of “mental scarring” when it comes to the Big 3 is better explained as our personal projection of how these guys feel.
When I played on the circuit, I lost a few matches where I choked on match point. I was devastated, and it took me weeks to recover from losses in insignificant tournaments.
Federer blew match points in a US Open semi-final and came back to win his last three events of the year, just one more example of how we have no idea what kind of fortitude these champions have.
I think it’s safe to say that Federer will bounce back and play to the best of his ability.
Notice, I didn’t say he will bounce back to win another Grand Slam.
Federer’s almost 38, and what he is doing is unprecedented in the history of tennis. Rosewall may be the oldest player to win a Slam (Federer is second), but the Australian Open in those days had a 64 draw (Rosewall got a bye to the second round) and only 1 top 10 player entered the tournament. Federer beating Nadal in the semis and then getting to match points against Djokovic in the finals is the second greatest feat by an old player in history. (Fun fact: Rosewall’s run to the 1974 Wimbledon finals was amazing, as he beat the huge server Roscoe Tanner, #1 Newcombe, and #4 Smith before losing to #3 Connors.)
One last thought. When Federer announced he was going to play the clay court circuit this year, I thought it was going to be like his retirement tour, giving his fans in those countries the chance to see him again one last time. Instead, he had match points in Madrid against the best clay court player in the world not named Rafael Nadal, beat the upcoming NextGen player Coric 7–6 in the third, and then reached the semi-finals at Roland Garros.
Federer is simply on a level that only Nadal and Djokovic can fully comprehend. While he may be aware of his tennis mortality, I don’t think we can guess at Federer’s mental state in the heat of the match. Saying things like “Federer has never faced a situation like this now before,” or that “he thinks about his tennis legacy in comparison to Nadal or Djokovic” is simply water cooler talk.
Here’s Federer talking about his mental state, facing the end of his career:
“ couldn’t believe it. was actually quite emotional, especially after the surgery, looking down at my foot and understanding that maybe this leg or this knee will never be the same.”
He said that in 2016.
What makes the Big 3 such all time champions is the fact that they remain focused on each ball in a way we simply can’t comprehend. Tennis announcers breathily whisper “she’s two points away from the match,” but the reality is, the player may never even get to match point. It is a dumb announcement meant to add drama to the event, or perhaps inform non-tennis players what the score means. There’s no way on earth that ATP ranked players are thinking “oh, if I can win this point, I’ll be at match point!” Sure, it’s possible they’ll get tight on an actual match point - even Federer is human and apparently far more like the average player in these situations than we realize.
Federer has lost 22 matches in his career where he has held at least one match point, and they were in the semi-finals and finals of Grand Slams.
And yet, he keeps bouncing back.
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-------------quote-------------
Federer’s abiility to recover mentally
Here’s a list of Federer’s most devastating losses and how Federer responded:
2008 Wimbledon (Nadal I): after some health issues and the first real slump of his career, Federer got destroyed at the French Open and then converted only 1 of 13 break points against Nadal to lose one of the greatest matches of all time. Federer continued to struggle that summer, but came back to win the US Open.
2009 Australian (Nadal II): this was the famous final where Nadal consoled a teary-eyed Federer after another epic 5-set match. After struggling at the winter hard court events, Federer won Madrid (beating Nadal on clay), the French Open (after Nadal lost to Soderling), Wimbledon, and Cincinnati, before losing in the finals of the US Open, ending the year as #1.
2010 US Open (Djokovic I): Federer blew two match points in the US Open semi-finals against Djokovic. Federer came back to win Basel and the ATP Finals.
2011 Australian Open (Djokovic II): Federer lost in straight sets to Djokovic in the semi-finals. Federer beat Djokovic at Roland Garros in the semi-finals.
2011 US Open (Djokovic III): Federer again blew two match points in the US Open semi-finals against Djokovic. Federer came back to win his last three tournaments of the year (Basel, Paris, ATP Finals).
2012 Australian Open (Nadal III): Federer lost to his nemesis again in a Slam, this time in four sets. Federer won 6 titles (Rotterdam, Dubai, beat Nadal en route to winning the Indian Wells Masters, Madrid Masters, Wimbledon, Cincinnati Masters) and regained the #1 ranking.
2014–2015: A combination of age, injuries and superior play by Djokovic and Nadal made these “forgettable” years: no Grand Slams, but 5 titles and winning the Davis Cup in 2014 and 6 titles in 2015.
Federer lost in the 2015 US Open finals to Djokovic and only won 4 of 23 break points, a pattern that has continued since Wimbledon 2008.
2016 (injuries): Federer started the season sick losing to Raonic in the Finals at Brisbane. He lost to Djokovic in four sets at the Australian Open, then hurt his knee the next day. When Federer Knew His Knee Might Not Be The Same | ATP Tour | Tennis
I think it’s safe to say that the only scarring Federer felt this year was from his injuries. He came back two months after surgery and tried to play, but suffered a back injury in practice at Madrid, forcing him to withdraw from that tournament, Rome, and the French Open (breaking a record run of 65 consecutive Slams). He tried to come back for the grass court tournaments, but lost to guys he has dominated (Cilic and Raonic), then quite the tour for the rest of the year. In 2017, Federer came back to win 7 titles (Australian Open, Wimbledon, 3 Masters 1000 titles (Indian Wells, Miami, Shanghai) moved back up to #2 in the world, and BEAT NADAL 4 STRAIGHT TIMES.
Through incredible resolve, hard work, mutliple coaches and a racket change, Federer finally figured out how to beat Nadal, his #1 nemesis.
You have to realize that prior to 2015, Federer was 10–23 vs Nadal, and 19–17 vs Djokovic. Nadal has always been Federer’s bete noire. Federer has always gone into matches thinking he could beat Djokovic, even during the Serb’s incredible run in 2011.
The idea that Federer is scared to play Djokovic is laughable and an example of recency bias. Since Federer turned 33, he is only 3–10 against Djokovic (almost 6 years his junior). Even for an all-time great like Federer, Djokovic has an edge in physical conditioning that continue to grow with time.
That’s what made the Wimbledon final so unexpected and exciting - Federer hadn’t pushed Djokovic to a fifth set in 5 years (2014 Wimbledon).
At almost 38, Federer outplayed Djokovic for most of their 4 hour, 55-minute final (the longest in Wimbledon history).
I was amazed just to see him able to hang with Djokovic in the fifth set, let alone get to match point. Instead of mouthing excuses that Djokovic didn’t play well, we need to appreciate how much Federer’s attacking game forced Djokovic into making errors.
Maybe the fans don’t get it, but Djokovic seems to be say just that.
I hope readers will understand that Federer, like Nadal and Djokovic, has a supernatural amount of mental toughness. The idea of “mental scarring” when it comes to the Big 3 is better explained as our personal projection of how these guys feel.
When I played on the circuit, I lost a few matches where I choked on match point. I was devastated, and it took me weeks to recover from losses in insignificant tournaments.
Federer blew match points in a US Open semi-final and came back to win his last three events of the year, just one more example of how we have no idea what kind of fortitude these champions have.
I think it’s safe to say that Federer will bounce back and play to the best of his ability.
Notice, I didn’t say he will bounce back to win another Grand Slam.
Federer’s almost 38, and what he is doing is unprecedented in the history of tennis. Rosewall may be the oldest player to win a Slam (Federer is second), but the Australian Open in those days had a 64 draw (Rosewall got a bye to the second round) and only 1 top 10 player entered the tournament. Federer beating Nadal in the semis and then getting to match points against Djokovic in the finals is the second greatest feat by an old player in history. (Fun fact: Rosewall’s run to the 1974 Wimbledon finals was amazing, as he beat the huge server Roscoe Tanner, #1 Newcombe, and #4 Smith before losing to #3 Connors.)
One last thought. When Federer announced he was going to play the clay court circuit this year, I thought it was going to be like his retirement tour, giving his fans in those countries the chance to see him again one last time. Instead, he had match points in Madrid against the best clay court player in the world not named Rafael Nadal, beat the upcoming NextGen player Coric 7–6 in the third, and then reached the semi-finals at Roland Garros.
Federer is simply on a level that only Nadal and Djokovic can fully comprehend. While he may be aware of his tennis mortality, I don’t think we can guess at Federer’s mental state in the heat of the match. Saying things like “Federer has never faced a situation like this now before,” or that “he thinks about his tennis legacy in comparison to Nadal or Djokovic” is simply water cooler talk.
Here’s Federer talking about his mental state, facing the end of his career:
“ couldn’t believe it. was actually quite emotional, especially after the surgery, looking down at my foot and understanding that maybe this leg or this knee will never be the same.”
He said that in 2016.
What makes the Big 3 such all time champions is the fact that they remain focused on each ball in a way we simply can’t comprehend. Tennis announcers breathily whisper “she’s two points away from the match,” but the reality is, the player may never even get to match point. It is a dumb announcement meant to add drama to the event, or perhaps inform non-tennis players what the score means. There’s no way on earth that ATP ranked players are thinking “oh, if I can win this point, I’ll be at match point!” Sure, it’s possible they’ll get tight on an actual match point - even Federer is human and apparently far more like the average player in these situations than we realize.
Federer has lost 22 matches in his career where he has held at least one match point, and they were in the semi-finals and finals of Grand Slams.
And yet, he keeps bouncing back.
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After how he played this year's Wimbledon, I wouldn't rule him out yet.
