Will Sinner and Alcaraz split the pot?

[Drighiz]

Hi there, I'm new here so I hope this is not (too) redundant, but I haven't really found a recent post about this: do you guys think that Sinner and Alcaraz will end up sharing the slam titles for the next 15 years in a similar way the big 3 have until recently? Specifically, what do you think the chances are that by the end of their career they will both have 20+ slams each?
I've seen posts debating the value of opposition in the past 5 / 10 years and many seem to believe the likes of Medvedev, Tsitsipas etc. should have been plenty strong enough to take more titles if they had played in a different era, and now they are losing to these two kids, which makes me think that by the time Sinner and Alcaraz mature they will be arguably as strong as Djokovic, Nadal and Federer... so, are they going to match their records? Or is some other youngster likely to catch up and surpass them? Or will one of them dominate and win 30+ slams, leaving the other to 10+?
What probabilities do you guys give to each scenario?

Exciting times ahead!

 

[NeutralFan]

Welcome to ttw, son!

 

[TheSlicer]

Its too early for all that, too many factors, all we can Hope for now is a disputed rivalry

 

[Drighiz]

Its too early for all that, too many factors, all we can Hope for now is a disputed rivalry

Oooohhhh but I want to know now!! ;-) Come on, what's your 5 cents?

 

[NeutralFan]

Its too early for all that, too many factors, all we can Hope for now is a disputed rivalry

True, imo i won't like it if it turns one sided either way. What's your take on the split?

 

[neytron]

Prizmic will take everything

 

[RacquetAbuse101]

No.

Sinner will bogart the joint.

 

[TheSlicer]

True, imo i won't like it if it turns one sided either way. What's your take on the split?

Its difficult to say right now, sinner has a slight edge on the match Up but he is 2 years older and i really think Alcaraz is gonna reinvent himself many times, to me, the natural outcome would be Alcaraz ending Up better, since he was better to beging with and more complete, also has an x factor if you wanna call it that way, the mentality, the only thing im not sure about him its if he is willing to put the tremendous amount of work over the years like the likes of nadal, Djokovic, fed..., i think he is a hard worker, but i think getting a steady girlfriend and being a family guy would help him, he is very young of course, and seems well guided, honestly i think something bad would have to happen for him not being a top contender for everything in the years to come, about sinner, he has some of the cleanest groundtrokes that ive seen in recent years, but It seems to me that he Will have to work much harder than Alcaraz to really be dominant, apart from his groundtrokes, theres no other aspect of his game that seems so above the rest, i wonder how is he gonna win matches when he is not in top form, something alcaraz has proven he can do many times, as his Game is so complete and his mental Game prodigious for someone his age.

 

[TheSlicer]

Oooohhhh but I want to know now!! ;-) Come on, what's your 5 cents?

I really think Alcaraz has more goods, to me he is the better player, people focus too much in a head to head that has like 10 matches, and even then its not that one sided, but i dont like to make predictions because its imposible to know, i Will just say Alcaraz is the biggest talent ive seen since Federer and Nadal, but what he acomplishes only depends on that to an extent.

 

[Razer]

15 years ? What the hell !!
Do you know how rare that is ?

They could be the 1-2 for a few years but then soon the fellows 5-6 years younger than them could get the better of them when they are 26-27, that happens always

 

[James P]

I think Alcaraz is good for 8-12 majors and Sinner is good for 3-6 right now.

I think we are going to see big contenders in the coming years coming through. They're probably 12 or 14 years old now, but Big 3 dominance to that level will be an anomaly even if I already expect Carlos to reach ATG status and Jannik is currently a fringe ATG contender on my radar.

 

[dking68]

I think Alcaraz is good for 8-12 majors and Sinner is good for 3-6 right now.

I think we are going to see big contenders in the coming years coming through. They're probably 12 or 14 years old now, but Big 3 dominance to that level will be an anomaly even if I already expect Carlos to reach ATG status and Jannik is currently a fringe ATG contender on my radar.

LOL

 

[Hitman]

Other players will be joining them.

 

[Impressario]

Tennis players dating models is a recipe for few slams

 

[ollinger]

Hi there, I'm new here so I hope this is not (too) redundant, but I haven't really found a recent post about this: do you guys think that Sinner and Alcaraz will end up sharing the slam titles for the next 15 years in a similar way the big 3 have until recently? Specifically, what do you think the chances are that by the end of their career they will both have 20+ slams each?

This is all rather shortsighted. There may be 15 year olds out there who need to develop a bit more and who in 5 years may be beating all the current top players.

 

[Eureka]

YES!!! They will and no one - I emphasise - NO ONE - will get a look in. Novak shmovak. You heard it here first! Remember it for ever!
On the other hand, waves rise and crash, don't they. What goes up must come down. etc. Ergo, who knows.

 

[Jonesy]

If only two players split the pot for the next decade or more then they could end up with more than 30 slams.

 

[socallefty]

do you guys think that Sinner and Alcaraz will end up sharing the slam titles for the next 15 years in a similar way the big 3 have until recently? Specifically, what do you think the chances are that by the end of their career they will both have 20+ slams each?

No. Zero.

Just because it happened once in tennis history doesn’t mean it is going to repeat right away. They will win their fair share, but there will be new players coming up. I am not even convinced Djokovic and Medvedev are done winning Slams in the next couple of years. Even if they each win 10+ Slams, they would be considered top echelon ATGs.

 

[Crocodile]

All I can add to what already has been said about the matter is - let’s see how the rest of 2024 pans out and early 2025.
It’s certainly been a long period of dominance by the big 3 with 37 years of age being the historical limit.
The interesting thing is defining what a tennis generation is. In life it’s normally the average age that society procreate and in the past that was around 25 years. Would you put tennis players into decades or would you say every 6 years which is the gap between a 12 year old junior to reaching opens at 18 ? The best way to answer this is to look at the historical timeline in change over of dominance. The big 3 have certainly seen off quite a few waves of younger age groups.
I think if we took a snap shot of the men’s tour in February 2024, most people are going to say that Sinner and Alcaraz are the current stand outs and will share the slams between them. Some would add Herman, Casper, Andrei and Holger are in that mix of young players coming through, but there could be others that are looming in the background such as Ben Shelton and the chance of injury could play a part:

 

[-NN-]

They're not good enough to split the pot entirely as a duo, at least not for many years.

 

[The Sinner]

It’s so hard to tell. Back in 2007/08 nobody predicted Nadal and Djokovic would end up winning 46 slams between them. I can only speculate that Sinraz will win a few slams between them over the next decade, and will share the No1 spot, with perhaps a couple others.

 

[Sudacafan]

If only two players split the pot for the next decade or more then they could end up with more than 30 slams.

That will even be a weakest era than this one.

 

[JeanTennis]

I think men's tennis will start going back to more slam winners, and Alcaraz/Sinner will stand out, but they won't be as dominant as the Big3. I still think Alcaraz has an XFactor and will lead the new generation, but I don't see a near total dominance like we've had the last 15 years. I'm hoping for that, it makes following the sport more interesting.

 

[Mxnh]

Holy crap when will everyone here realize that we were absolutely spoiled by the big 3 and that something like that will probably never happen again?

10 slams is like top atg level and there are some predicting more people with 20 slams
SAMPRAS, the undisputed goat before big3, had 14 slams

No but srsly I don’t think anyone is getting to double digits anytime soon

 

[TheSlicer]

Holy crap when will everyone here realize that we were absolutely spoiled by the big 3 and that something like that will probably never happen again?

10 slams is like top atg level and there are some predicting more people with 20 slams
SAMPRAS, the undisputed goat before big3, had 14 slams

No but srsly I don’t think anyone is getting to double digits anytime soon

While It is true that we have been spoiled and shouldnt expect those numbers, its also a result of the homogenization of the surfaces, each time its easier to transition and a relatively dominant player wont have as many difficulties to win slams in any surface as in the past, im not saying they will have Big 3 numbers, but im saying that big 3 numbers are as much a result of how good they were as a it was a result of a change in tennis itself

 

[MeatTornado]

Holy crap when will everyone here realize that we were absolutely spoiled by the big 3 and that something like that will probably never happen again?

10 slams is like top atg level and there are some predicting more people with 20 slams
SAMPRAS, the undisputed goat before big3, had 14 slams

No but srsly I don’t think anyone is getting to double digits anytime soon

By no means do I think Alcaraz or Sinner are going to be Big 3 level. But the landscape of the slams is definitely different than it was pre-Big 3, and we should adjust accordingly. It's simply easier to rack up majors now. Surface homogenization is probably the #1 reason, and everyone taking Australia as serious as the other 3 majors is big too. And then you factor in modern medicine expanding careers much longer than they used to.

So a lot of those 4-6 slam winners could realistically be 10 slam winners in today's game. Even if we think Alcaraz is closer to the Edberg tier than Sampras, don't be surprised if he reaches double digits in this era anyway.

 

[Rosstour]

I think Alcaraz is good for 8-12 majors and Sinner is good for 3-6 right now.

I think we are going to see big contenders in the coming years coming through. They're probably 12 or 14 years old now, but Big 3 dominance to that level will be an anomaly even if I already expect Carlos to reach ATG status and Jannik is currently a fringe ATG contender on my radar.

This is a reasonable take but could end up way undershooting

 

[jackson vile]

Or… will Sinner replace Alcaraz as the new clear up and coming sensation achieving everything everyone thought that Alcaraz would?

 

[duaneeo]

I can see them splitting the pot this year.

 

[Pheasant]

This is honestly the most excited that I’ve been for the FO in a very long time. Sinner might double down on his 2020 form. He’s in much better shape now. And he was competitive against Nadal during those first 2 sets until he wilted in the 3ed set. Alcaraz is dangerous on clay courts too. And clearly, Djoker cannot be ruled out.

As far as Alcaraz goes, I have a feeling that he will be back. It’s normal for a 20 year old to hit a mini slump. The Alcaraz vs Sinner rivalry should be fascinating. They seem like they will be pretty evenly matched up from this point moving forward.

 

[socallefty]

I didn’t know they were stoners. What do they listen to when they are getting high together and discussing how to beat Djokovic?

 

[BeatlesFan]

Tennis players dating models is a recipe for few slams

109 tournament wins, 8 slams, 268 weeks at #1. Has been married to a former Playboy model since 1979.

His wife:

 

[Arak]

Djokovic, Medvedev, Alcaraz, Sinner, and probably Zverev will share the spoils. There will be no big2 in the coming few years. Everyone is good and none is good enough.

 

[FeroBango]

While It is true that we have been spoiled and shouldnt expect those numbers, its also a result of the homogenization of the surfaces, each time its easier to transition and a relatively dominant player wont have as many difficulties to win slams in any surface as in the past, im not saying they will have Big 3 numbers, but im saying that big 3 numbers are as much a result of how good they were as a it was a result of a change in tennis itself

The counter to it is that while the Big 3 did what they did, Charlie is literally the only player apart from them to even reach the status of Hewitt's.

Edit: Sir Andy, I'm sorry.

 

[NeutralFan]

The counter to it is that while the Big 3 did what they did, Charlie is literally the only player apart from them to even reach the status of Hewitt's.

It would be an insult to Charlie to compare him to Hewitt, Charlie has way more weapons and a better serve.

 

[FeroBango]

It would be an insult to Charlie to compare him to Hewitt, Charlie has way more weapons and a better serve.

That's true. They are fundamentally incomparable as players save their similar heights and the short-man speed, but Hewitt also has a legacy -- one far greater than those since him except the Big 3 until Raz.

Edit: I disrespected Sir Andy here.

 

[Drighiz]

Bumping my own thread now that it's all said and done for this year (at least slam-wise). They did indeed split the pot this year. What do you guys see ahead? 20+ slams each?

 

[Drighiz]

Great call

 

[Rovesciarete]

Bumping my own thread now that it's all said and done for this year (at least slam-wise). They did indeed split the pot this year. What do you guys see ahead? 20+ slams each?

10+ slams for both are now increasingly very likely, the performance gap is big between Sinneraz and the rest, excluding Djokovic. Keep in mind that Sinner's numbers have been going up fast and Alcaraz is following not much slower.

Player​	Matches​	RallyLen​	RLen-Serve​	RLen-Return​	1-3 W%​	4-6 W%​	7-9 W%​	10+ W%​	FH/GS​	BH Slice%​	FHP/Match​	BHP/Match​
Carlos Alcaraz​	51​	4.0​	4.0​	4.1​	52.5%​	55.3%​	53.9%​	57.0%​	53.1%​	18.3%​	11.7​	2.5​
Alex De Minaur​	26​	5.0​	4.9​	5.2​	48.4%​	52.0%​	52.5%​	56.9%​	48.5%​	15.9%​	7.8​	1.0​
Jannik Sinner​	67​	4.3​	4.2​	4.3​	53.9%​	56.9%​	54.1%​	56.1%​	51.4%​	7.0%​	12.3​	6.0​
Daniil Medvedev​	38​	5.0​	4.7​	5.2​	50.5%​	49.6%​	52.6%​	54.5%​	45.0%​	7.2%​	6.1​	5.1​
Novak Djokovic​	49​	4.5​	4.2​	4.7​	54.5%​	55.1%​	52.6%​	53.5%​	49.0%​	15.6%​	12.4​	7.0​

Carlos more aggressive than Novak and Jannik when serving and even when returning, going big quickly but with less success. Janni is also finding more forehands, another sign of improved movement beside winning much more points in longer rallies. Still less than Alcaraz which has however the (clearly) inferior backhand. The 10+ W% is the least important, the 1-3 W% the most.

Nole is still doing great first strike tennis but is running out of steam compared to his younger self and Sinneraz.

 

[nolefam_2024]

10+ slams for both are now increasingly very likely, the performance gap is big between Sinneraz and the rest, excluding Djokovic. Keep in mind that Sinner's numbers have been going up fast and Alcaraz is following not much slower.

Player​	Matches​	RallyLen​	RLen-Serve​	RLen-Return​	1-3 W%​	4-6 W%​	7-9 W%​	10+ W%​	FH/GS​	BH Slice%​	FHP/Match​	BHP/Match​
Carlos Alcaraz​	51​	4.0​	4.0​	4.1​	52.5%​	55.3%​	53.9%​	57.0%​	53.1%​	18.3%​	11.7​	2.5​
Alex De Minaur​	26​	5.0​	4.9​	5.2​	48.4%​	52.0%​	52.5%​	56.9%​	48.5%​	15.9%​	7.8​	1.0​
Jannik Sinner​	67​	4.3​	4.2​	4.3​	53.9%​	56.9%​	54.1%​	56.1%​	51.4%​	7.0%​	12.3​	6.0​
Daniil Medvedev​	38​	5.0​	4.7​	5.2​	50.5%​	49.6%​	52.6%​	54.5%​	45.0%​	7.2%​	6.1​	5.1​
Novak Djokovic​	49​	4.5​	4.2​	4.7​	54.5%​	55.1%​	52.6%​	53.5%​	49.0%​	15.6%​	12.4​	7.0​

Carlos more aggressive than Novak and Jannik when serving and even when returning, going big quickly but with less success. Janni is also finding more forehands, another sign of improved movement beside winning much more points in longer rallies. Still less than Alcaraz which has however the (clearly) inferior backhand. The 10+ W% is the least important, the 1-3 W% the most.

Nole is still doing great first strike tennis but is running out of steam compared to his younger self and Sinneraz.

A player like sinner historically should be playing less forehands.

Fed/Nole/Andre/Lendl all did less than 50%. That's because they are so good from baseline and consistent on fh that they get dragged into cc battles on backhand and despite being forehand heavy players for hitting winners, they don't mind keep hitting backhands.



What is very new to tennis is these two jacked players sinneraz who can blast forehands out of nowhere. Not just on return of serve or +1. They don't play neutral as much. They have found out magic formula that gives their +1 shots mostly on forehands. Usually the dirt rats who would run around Backhand a lot who had this 51+ split on fh to bh. Not hard court player like Sinner or raz who is all court.

The power era on display.


It's also an opportunity for old timers. Drag them in longer rallies. Stop the +1 madness if you can while participating in it from your side of course.

I have heard power hurts speed kills. Let's see. ADM can give sinner huge fight if he could add extra 2 mph on groundstrokes. Currently too underpowered, guys like him (with power) are needed to consistently beat sinneraz now.

We don't even need to talk about raz backhand. It has turned into an error machine on low bouncing courts.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Patrick Mouratoglou analyzed the comparison between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, offering an interesting perspective on why the Spaniard has a head-to-head advantage (6-4), despite the Italian's dominance in 2024.

SEASONAL PREVIOUS
In 2024 the two faced each other four times, with Alcaraz winning three challenges and Sinner one, moreover in an unofficial event (the Six Kings Slam final).

MOURATOGLOU'S ANALYSIS
“I see Alcaraz winning more often against Sinner because he can create more,” the famous coach explained to Eurosport. “He has this extra power and can compete with him in terms of mobility as well. The problem is that Alcaraz makes a lot of forced errors where Sinner doesn't. In their battles there are many ups and downs and constant changes."

THE SINNER FACTOR
Mouratoglou also highlighted Sinner's unique qualities: “He can hit a winner with any shot, that's what you feel and it's quite disturbing for the opponents. You can't relax, you feel like you can't build because you're always in danger, on every shot. I think the most important thing is not being in danger on every shot but what he does with consistency. He has everything under control, he has this level of aggression combined with control, that's what makes him so special."

 

[Drighiz]

I think the simple explanation is that this season Sinner has shown a really high floor and an excellent ceiling, while Alcaraz has had a mediocre (by his standards) floor and an extraordinary ceiling. These factors, combined with their seeding, meant that the only times they met was because Alcaraz was peaking (he actually won every tournament where they met). Ironically, had Alcaraz's floor been higher, his H2H against Sinner would probably look a little worse but he'd have many more points.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

I think the simple explanation is that this season Sinner has shown a really high floor and an excellent ceiling, while Alcaraz has had a mediocre (by his standards) floor and an extraordinary ceiling. These factors, combined with their seeding, meant that the only times they met was because Alcaraz was peaking (he actually won every tournament where they met). Ironically, had Alcaraz's floor been higher, his H2H against Sinner would probably look a little worse but he'd have many more points.

Sinner has no excuse.
7 of their 10 matches have been on HCs, a surface Sinner loves & dominates.

 

[kangaroo1973]

Sinner has no excuse.
7 of their 10 matches have been on HCs, a surface Sinner loves & dominates.

He will make up for it next season