Will there be a new GS champion in 2019?

[mightyjeditribble]

The "Big 3" won all GS titles in 2017-2018. The last time we had new (Men's) GS champions was in 2014, with Wawrinka and Cilic. The only active former GS champions outside the big 3 are Wawrinka, Cilic, Delpo & Murray.

Will someone else break through next year? The current situation is quite incredible. Have there ever been four years (let's say in the Open Era) where there were no new GS champions on the men's side? Not in recent history: since Nadal won his first French Open in 2005, we have had the following new winners:

2008 - Djokovic
2009 - Delpo
2010 & 2011: no new winners
2012 - Murray
2013: no new winners
2014: Wawrinka, Cilic
2015-2018: no new winners

So, do you think we will get a new winner? If so, say who! (Even if not, say who you think is most likely to do it!)

Zverev to finally solve his Grand Slam problems?
Thiem to go one further at the French?
Andersen to crown his late-career surge with a GS title?
Nishikori to defy expectations by breaking his losing in finals at the biggest stage?
Isner to serve his way to a GS title?
Raonic to win Wimbledon?

If you think any of the previous GS winners outside the Big 3 will manage to add to their titles, also say so!

 

[mightyjeditribble]

It seems to me that it's likely that it will happen, but virtually impossible to predict who it will be. How many people would have predicted Cilic for US Open in 2014 at the end of 2013?

I guess the safe choice would be Thiem, in that he made the final and has consistently played well on clay. He is best-placed to capitalise if Djokovic and Nadal slip up at RG.

Zverev should really be in the conversation, but he hasn't exactly convinced recently.

So who could do it?

 

[mightyjeditribble]

PS. I just realised I posted this in Pro Match Results by accident ... will see if it can be moved.

 

[CYGS]

Djokovic for CYGS 2019.

 

[Djokodalerer31]

Mmm no...i don't see it! Novak and Rafa will swap back and forth and share all the titles between them for a couple of seasons more!...There won't be a new winner until 2021...

 

[StannisTheMannis]

No. If djokovic or Nadal doesn’t win it’ll be Fed/Stan/Cilic/Delpo/Murray. Maybe Kevin Anderson stands a chance

 

[tennisaddict]

Stan Wawrinka or Dominic Thiem

Djoker , Nadal and Fed win 1 major each

 

[Standaa]

Only if Laver comes out of retirement.

 

[Djokodalerer31]

Stan Wawrinka or Dominic Thiem

Djoker , Nadal and Fed win 1 major each

Federer is done winning slams...so is Wawrinka! LOL

 

[tennisfan2015]

Peak Fedr

 

[tennis4me]

The Fog has finally descended in 2019? Maybe one last hurrah before retirement like Flavia?

 

[Sport]

Djokovic for CYGS 2019.

 

[CYGS]

I will trade AO2020 with you for RG2019. Deal?

 

[King No1e]

Fedr

 

[Sport]

I will trade AO2020 with you for RG2019. Deal?

We will discuss the details of the deal in Arabia

 

[TheGreatOne1997]

Nah.. Nadal/Nole sweep next year. If they don't then Fed will win another one.

 

[Hamnavoe]

Dominic Thiem

 

[tennisaddict]

Federer is done winning slams...so is Wawrinka! LOL

That is what we have heard since 2008 AO

 

[Phoenix1983]

Yes.

It's time for Thiem.

 

[Phoenix1983]

Will someone else break through next year? The current situation is quite incredible. Have there ever been four years (let's say in the Open Era) where there were no new GS champions on the men's side? Not in recent history: since Nadal won his first French Open in 2005, we have had the following new winners:

In answer to this question - no, it's never happened before in the Open Era in the men's game.

In fact, before the Fedal era, it had never happened for two consecutive years - see complete list below;



1968 Ashe
1969 -
1970 Kodes
1971 Smith
1972 Gimeno, Nastase
1973 -
1974 Connors, Borg
1975 Orantes
1976 Edmondson, Panatta
1977 Tanner, Vilas, Gerulaitis
1978 -
1979 McEnroe
1980 Teacher
1981 Kriek
1982 Wilander
1983 Noah
1984 Lendl
1985 Becker, Edberg
1986 -
1987 Cash
1988 -
1989 Chang
1990 Gomez, Sampras
1991 Courier, Stich
1992 Agassi
1993 Bruguera
1994 -
1995 Muster
1996 Kafelnikov, Krajicek
1997 Kuerten, Rafter
1998 Korda, Moya
1999 -
2000 Safin
2001 Ivanisevic, Hewitt
2002 Johansson, Costa
2003 Ferrero, Federer, Roddick
2004 Gaudio
2005 Nadal
2006 -
2007 -
2008 Djokovic
2009 Del Potro
2010 -
2011 -
2012 Murray
2013 -
2014 Wawrinka, Cilic
2015 -
2016 -
2017 -
2018 -

 

[mightyjeditribble]

In answer to this question - no, it's never happened before in the Open Era in the men's game.

In fact, before the Fedal era, it had never happened for two consecutive years - see complete list below;



1968 Ashe
1969 -
1970 Kodes
1971 Smith
1972 Gimeno, Nastase
1973 -
1974 Connors, Borg
1975 Orantes
1976 Edmondson, Panatta
1977 Tanner, Vilas, Gerulaitis
1978 -
1979 McEnroe
1980 Teacher
1981 Kriek
1982 Wilander
1983 Noah
1984 Lendl
1985 Becker, Edberg
1986 -
1987 Cash
1988 -
1989 Chang
1990 Gomez, Sampras
1991 Courier, Stich
1992 Agassi
1993 Bruguera
1994 -
1995 Muster
1996 Kafelnikov, Krajicek
1997 Kuerten, Rafter
1998 Korda, Moya
1999 -
2000 Safin
2001 Ivanisevic, Hewitt
2002 Johansson, Costa
2003 Ferrero, Federer, Roddick
2004 Gaudio
2005 Nadal
2006 -
2007 -
2008 Djokovic
2009 Del Potro
2010 -
2011 -
2012 Murray
2013 -
2014 Wawrinka, Cilic
2015 -
2016 -
2017 -
2018 -

Thanks for this! Quite remarkable really.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Rafa4GOAT]

Although I answered no on the poll, the only person who has a chance is Anderson if he gets a good draw at USO or Wimby, or Djokodal slips up at one of those.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Yes.

It's time for Thiem.

Sadly, we've been hearing that for ages. He's just not mentally strong enough to break through in a major and the only one he has a prayer of winning is RG. This year how many games did he get from Rafa? I think it was 8. Maybe when he's 30 he can learn how to win big matches against the big guns, or just wait until they deteriorate or retire. Great haircut though!

 

[duaneeo]

Possibly two first-time slam champions...Zverev and Anderson, or Zverev and another NextGen, or Zverev and a LostGen.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Djokovic for CYGS 2019.

That would be quite a feat, particularly in his 30s. Unfortunately, I think the chance he had to do this in 2015 will probably never come again.

I say unfortunately since, although I am not a particular fan of Djokovic, I would love for someone to achieve the CYGS in my lifetime. I wanted Fed to do it so badly, but he didn't manage. I thought the NCYGS - another feat that eluded Fed - was already an amazing achievement by Djokovic, and one that he is not always given enough credit for. I can only guess that, at the time, there was a lot of hype about him potentially doing the CYGS, or maybe even the Golden Slam, and when that all fizzled out a bit, the chance to really celebrate what he achieved had been missed a bit. Yet, I think in the future it will be seen as one of his amazing achievements.

In a way, it might be best that the CYGS is not achieved by this generation of players. It leaves something for the next goat contender to aspire to, given that almost all other records set by these amazing champions will take a whole career to overcome, if they ever are. I mean, come on, 20 slams - you could win the CYGS 4 times and still be short.

Yet if someone was to win the CYGS, it would surely immediately thrust them somewhere in the GOAT debate, given that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic were never able to achieve it. So it keeps things interesting.

 

[oldmanfan]

Possibly two first-time slam champions...Zverev and Anderson, or Zverev and another NextGen, or Zverev and a LostGen.

I'm going out on a limb here, but you think Z will win a slam soon™?

On a srs note, it's still surprising how bad Z's slam results are. Maybe too much nerves, pressure, both? Even with the Big3 around still, Z should be making slam QF regularly now, and the occasional SF. He certainly easily makes QF/SF/F of masters.
For me, Bo3 vs. Bo5 does not fully explain it.

 

[wtatp]

Dimitrov to win AO and Thiem to win RG/USO

 

[oldmanfan]

Dimitrov to win AO and Thiem to win RG/USO

Deal!... only if Fedr wins AO or WB, and Dimi wins the other.

 

[duaneeo]

I'm going out on a limb here, but you think Z will win a slam soon™?

2019 Roland Garros

 

[Ann]

I think Tsitsipas will be the first NextGen to win a GS.

 

[oldmanfan]

2019 Roland Garros

I think it's realistically possible. He had Nadal in Rome(?) before rain. Nadal was saved again by rain at RG against Swhartzman(?). Now Djokovic is back too. RG19 should be competitive.

 

[MichaelNadal]

I will trade AO2020 with you for RG2019. Deal?

All day long.

 

[yokied]

Thiem bagelled Nadal at the USO and still lost. The mental midgetry is increasing, not decreasing. Book RG for Djoko or Nadal. I can see Thiem beating Nadal and/or Djokovic before the final, but no way is he winning a RG final against either of them.

 

[Sudacafan]

Yes.

It's time for Thiem.

Not looking good as Thiem chances are only in RG. Very unlucky for Dominic.

 

[Sudacafan]

In answer to this question - no, it's never happened before in the Open Era in the men's game.

In fact, before the Fedal era, it had never happened for two consecutive years - see complete list below;



1968 Ashe
1969 -
1970 Kodes
1971 Smith
1972 Gimeno, Nastase
1973 -
1974 Connors, Borg
1975 Orantes
1976 Edmondson, Panatta
1977 Tanner, Vilas, Gerulaitis
1978 -
1979 McEnroe
1980 Teacher
1981 Kriek
1982 Wilander
1983 Noah
1984 Lendl
1985 Becker, Edberg
1986 -
1987 Cash
1988 -
1989 Chang
1990 Gomez, Sampras
1991 Courier, Stich
1992 Agassi
1993 Bruguera
1994 -
1995 Muster
1996 Kafelnikov, Krajicek
1997 Kuerten, Rafter
1998 Korda, Moya
1999 -
2000 Safin
2001 Ivanisevic, Hewitt
2002 Johansson, Costa
2003 Ferrero, Federer, Roddick
2004 Gaudio
2005 Nadal
2006 -
2007 -
2008 Djokovic
2009 Del Potro
2010 -
2011 -
2012 Murray
2013 -
2014 Wawrinka, Cilic
2015 -
2016 -
2017 -
2018 -

Interesting that there was never a year with 4 new winners.
1977 and 2003 had three.
And 2015-2018 (4 years, and still counting) is the longest period without new winners.

 

[Phoenix1983]

Interesting that there was never a year with 4 new winners.
1977 and 2003 had three.

Well, I think it would be very unusual for all four slams to be won by new champions - would mean that all former champs suddenly had a massive drop-off in form, and there were four new guys ready to step up and all win a slam for the first time.

Mind you, it did happen in four consecutive slams from 2001 W - 2002 FO (Ivanisevic, Hewitt, Johansson, Costa); although of these guys, only Hewitt could have been termed a youngster.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Well, I think it would be very unusual for all four slams to be won by new champions - would mean that all former champs suddenly had a massive drop-off in form, and there were four new guys ready to step up and all win a slam for the first time.

Mind you, it did happen in four consecutive slams from 2001 W - 2002 FO (Ivanisevic, Hewitt, Johansson, Costa); although of these guys, only Hewitt could have been termed a youngster.

I forgot that Johansson picked up the AO.

I always liked him, but he was clearly there at the right time. Hard to believe he has the same number of slams as Roddick!

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Well, I think it would be very unusual for all four slams to be won by new champions - would mean that all former champs suddenly had a massive drop-off in form, and there were four new guys ready to step up and all win a slam for the first time.

Mind you, it did happen in four consecutive slams from 2001 W - 2002 FO (Ivanisevic, Hewitt, Johansson, Costa); although of these guys, only Hewitt could have been termed a youngster.

Good find btw!

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

If Novak stays injury free I don’t think we will have a new slam winner unfortunately

 

[Steve0904]

Probably not. When your best chance is Zverev or Thiem you know you're screwed.

 

[reaper]

Just watched Zverev vs Tiafoe. On that display there's 2 you can rule out. More Djokovic domination looking likely.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I thought it might be worth revisiting this thread at this point in the season. A clear majority thought the Big 3 would continue to win the slams throughout 2019 - do you still think that, with one to go? AO2019 saw another Big 3 final between Nadal and Djokovic, but only Fed has won one of the three MS events that have followed. Nadal is still the favourite for RG, but his vice-like grip on the clay season appears to have loosened somewhat. Djokovic hasn't replicated his AO form, although of course BO5 is a different beast. Fed is not likely to be a contender at the French, unless a miracle happens. Do you think someone else might take the French? Given the dips all three are showing at their current age, do you think they can peak for the Grand Slams and keep the contenders at bay one more year?

DIsgust!

 

[Jackuar]

It's highly unlikely all three of the Big 3 slip at the same time. So, No.

 

[rUDin 21]

Maybe only at the US Open.That's been the best slam for new winner.
2009.Del Potro,2012 Murray,2014 Cilic and 2016 Wawrinka although that was not his first.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Almost certainly.

 

[BGod]

Nah.

It would be USO obviously but I think Delpo would take it as an outsider or even Wawrinka.

 

[Luka888]

Maybe, but just maybe Thiem at RG but I still doubt it. Djokovic and Nadal will be awaiting. The draw needs to be kinda open. You can beat one but both of them but both, I don't know. I don't think so.

Fed will be there too. I don't see Zverev winning any majors, too fragile in BO5. The USO could be kinda open but I just lost my faith in youngsters. They are too inconsistent. Let's see what happens at RG first.

 

[Shaolin]

Opelka will win RG.

 

[Standaa]

Opelka will win RG.

beating Karlovic in the final.

 

[Shaolin]

beating Karlovic in the final.

I'd actually prefer that to seeing Rafa win it for his 84th time.