Will Thiem Destroy Murray on Clay?

[Meles]

Clayray stats were down in 2016 from his 2015 debut, but Daddyray was a bit distracted earlier in the Spring. They've not played since Miami in 2015:
13/2015 QF Miami Masters Hard Andy Murray Dominic Thiem 3-6 6-4 6-1 1.08 - 12.00
7/2014 R16 Rotterdam Hard Andy Murray Dominic Thiem 6-4 3-6 6-3 1.08 - 9.50

Thiem has always had the power to punch through Murray's defense a bit. Now in 2017 he's got more power and stamina. He tried his hand at pure power tennis down under with quite a number of impressive sets, but it took its toll. Nevertheless Thiem was able to hold serve from 0-40 at least three times (saved four 2nd set points against Goffin in the process.) Though his movement and speed are no better than last year, its pretty clear that increased strength and stamina will have a nice impact. Thiem is in the midst of resuccitating his game in a much more balanced version. All signs are positive that he's ready to deliver a stronger version of 2016 this year with a good chance of securing top 8 seeding through the French Open which will help him accumulate more points in the clay Masters 1000s. Thiem Rafa hunting in Barcelona after 2016 hiatus, but may steer clear of ATP 250 events to be fresh for the 3 Clay Masters. An encounter on clay seems likely at the QF stage, but Thiem may have to beat another 1 of the top 4 seeds to get to the Muzziah on clay.

If they face each other at the French Open I think Murray will have the last laugh. Thiem may well get his first win against Clayray before that.

 

[Red Rick]

Murray is the favorite

 

[dgold44]

Murray is better on any surface

 

[Meles]

Murray is better on any surface

Pretty clearly by any measure, but the head to head shows Thiem to be quite competitive and Thiem is massively improved from early 2015.

 

[jwjh]

Your Thiem agenda has gone too far.

 

[Checkmate]

what nonsense!

 

[Meles]

Your Thiem agenda has gone too far.

He's looking quite deadly and really still finding his game after horrid Sofia and against Zverev "started off horribly, it almost felt like being trapped in a bad movie. Happily I was able to escape from that movie." In his last set Thiem was absolutely GOATing with a great balance in his game with lots of changes of pace including a ton of slice backhands.

 

[Meles]

what nonsense!

 

[Fedinkum]

I am a fan of Thiem, but he has yet had a break through match on big stages...I hope he doesn't end up with a Ferrer type of career

 

[Jonas78]

I am a fan of Thiem, but he has yet had a break through match on big stages...I hope he doesn't end up with a Ferrer type of career

Given that Thiems career will probably reach its peak when Big4 and Wawrinka is gone, he is almost guaranteed not to end up like Ferrer.

 

[Bender]

mury goat

 

[Luckydog]

In general ,Murray is the favorite .But Thiem has the potential to upset him on any court .That's the story .

 

[The Green Mile]

If Thiem can find that much needed balance at the back of the court, and executes well, he can beat anybody on clay. But it's well known Thiem can start to over hit and get impatient, and that's the last thing you want to do against Andy.

It's actually a match up I'm very interested in seeing, Murray vs Thiem on clay. The Murray forehand would be one to watch.

 

[chjtennis]

Unlikely. More likely is things happening the other way around.

 

[reaper]

Thiem would need to make at least the round of 16 to play Murray. I was just reading an article about him. Since August last year 12/14 matches he's lost have been to players ranked below him. His playing style is insanely taxing and his scheduling is idiotic. That at least gives him two obvious areas of improvement if he's smart enough to recognise them.

 

[Meles]

Thiem would need to make at least the round of 16 to play Murray. I was just reading an article about him. Since August last year 12/14 matches he's lost have been to players ranked below him. His playing style is insanely taxing and his scheduling is idiotic. That at least gives him two obvious areas of improvement if he's smart enough to recognise them.

Out of date article. Thiem using backhand slice to slash and burn his way to the top.

 

[Gazelle]

There are signs of a Thiem revival in Rotterdam. Seems to be getting into form. Saw him live yesterday, insane backhand down the lines. Audience was stunned.

 

[Meles]

There are signs of a Thiem revival in Rotterdam. Seems to be getting into form. Saw him live yesterday, insane backhand down the lines. Audience was stunned.

Stunned by mindless ball bashing?

 

[SinjinCooper]

Federer.

 

[Meles]

Federer.

Not Thiemerer?

 

[BeatlesFan]

If Thiem and Andy meet 3 times on the dirt this season, I say Muzz wins them all. He's vastly fitter than Thiem, more experienced and simply the better and more complete player. At least for now.

 

[Meles]

If Thiem and Andy meet 3 times on the dirt this season, I say Muzz wins them all. He's vastly fitter than Thiem, more experienced and simply the better and more complete player. At least for now.

Tremendous stamina advantage for Muzz, but his MO often is to run out of gas at the final stages. I expect we'll see Thiem with more stamina this year; able to win back to back tournaments without stamina being his downfall. With a top seed, if Thiem is in great form he could come into quarterfinals relatively fresh and be a very dangerous player for Murray and others. It may only be a step in this direction for 2017, but in 2018 and 19 a stronger, more durable Thiem will be a force to reckon.

Thiem is extremely fit for his age, but no match for a grizzled Muzziah or Nadal who have become beasts. Thiem hits nearly as heavy as Nadal. His one handed backhand makes his exertion a bit less on the one side, but Thiem is no Nadal when it comes to the war of attrition (aspiring to this ideal for sure.)

 

[Deleted member 733170]

A bit contrived OP!

I think an inform Murray will be able to handle the best that Thiem has to offer.

 

[Meles]

A bit contrived OP!

I think an inform Murray will be able to handle the best that Thiem has to offer.

Thiem doing well in first two clay matches.
2nd set totals from both matches on serve:
72% first serve percentage with 86% first points won (simply devestating on clay.)
61% in play and impressive 86% won

Nadal has the best offense on clay overall of anyone with a prayer on the surface (Fed a touch betterer), but 67% serving and 86% won on first serves is crazy good on clay. Fed career is 61/75. Rafa 71/70. Djoko 65/71.

This is scary good from Thiem, so Clayray destruction back on.

 

[Sereger]

He's not in any consideration until winning Rio as top seed this week.

 

[Fedeonic]

This is scary good from Thiem, so Clayray destruction back on.

It wasn't quite a destruction, but a win is a win, I guess.
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/play...verview/match-stats/425/2017/MC10/match-stats

 

[Meles]

It wasn't quite a destruction, but a win is a win, I guess.
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/play...verview/match-stats/425/2017/MC10/match-stats

Murray hung in very well in the match, but Thiem won 53% of points which is a very solid win even though it went three sets.
Thiem won an amazing 46% of first return points for a very nice 47% of return points won in the match.

Thiem is up for the year through today to 42.1% return points won up from 40.0% in 2016. On serve Thiem is up to 66.0% from 65.4% last year. Total points won is 54.1% up from 52.7% for 2016. To put 54.1% in perspective, Roger Federer is 53.6% points won on clay for his career and Novak Djokovic is 54.0%. They are 2nd and 3rd all time behind Nadal at 56.0%. This kind of level is easily good enough to win slams, but with prime Nadal back on the loose in 2017 Thiem likely would need help from the field in disposing of Nadal.

Thiem is very, very dangerous even to Nadal because of his first serve points won. On average Thiem is 73.0% first serve points won. Federer is the king of this stat among successful clay court players with 74.5%. Kuerten was 73.8%. What makes Thiem extra dangerous is that rather than be at 60% first serves in or 55% first serves for Kuerten he averages more first serves in play at 63% so far in 2017. Thiem just had matches with 73% and a whopping 84% first serve rate. If he does that near the end of a tournament Thiem would be able to challenge prime Nadal. Serves win slams because a strong serve allows a player to get efficiently through the draw. So far in 2017, Thiem has been straight setting most of his opponents which will allow him to be his very best deep into tournaments.

 

[Meles]

what nonsense!

And yet all has come to pass so far.