Wimb 2015 draw: top 5's paths, and impact on odds

[falstaff78]

Top 5's paths:

Odds changes due to draw:

The big winners from the draw appears to be Novak, followed Andy, with Stan and Fed also getting bumps. More specific observations:

1) Novak and Andy have presumably benefited from being kept apart.
2) It's obvious that Novak's early draw is of no concern to the bookies.
3) Stan's odds increase from getting Novak instead of Roger! A little strange
4) Nadal's odds decrease from getting Murray in the quarters


(For details of how I calculate the odds, and for more details in general you can visit my Wimbledon Odds Thread)

 

[Krish872007]

Isn't Nadal on course to meet Murray in the Quarters (not semis)?

 

[kOaMaster]

I totally understand that change in Stan's odds: Out of all players, Federer is probably the worst opponent for Stan. He'd rather play vs Djokovic or Murray. He also avoided Anderson

 

[Krish872007]

Yea Novak and Andy have definitely benefited from being apart.

But I don't understand what is so strange about Stans odds increasing from getting Djokovic instead of Federer? Should be obvious really. Federer is not 2006 anymore.

From what I understand, these are odds of winning the tournament (percentage odds), not the usual odds. So it seems very strange that the bookies' think Stan's chances are greater now that he's drawn with Djokovic (instead of RF).

 

[Krish872007]

Yep, Wawrinka is thanking his stars that he's avoided Kevin Anderson

 

[RF-18]

From what I understand, these are odds of winning the tournament (percentage odds), not the usual odds. So it seems very strange that the bookies' think Stan's chances are greater now that he's drawn with Djokovic (instead of RF).

Oh damn! Totally misread that. Thanks Krish.

@falstaff78 ignore my first post above. I misread it totally.

But yeah, I agree, it is very strange.

 

[falstaff78]

Isn't Nadal on course to meet Murray in the Quarters (not semis)?

Yes sir, that is exactly right. As it shows in the table above!

 

[PeteD]

Rafa has problems. Nobody beats Thomaz Bellucci five times in a row. Plus, his HTH with Ferrer off clay is 6-6.

 

[Krish872007]

Yes sir, that is exactly right. As it shows in the table above!

Ah yes - I was actually questioning your 4th bullet point "4) Nadal's odds decrease from getting Murray in the semis.", but I completely missed the table at the top

 

[falstaff78]

Ah yes - I was actually questioning your 4th bullet point "4) Nadal's odds decrease from getting Murray in the semis.", but I completely missed the table at the top

Good catch thanks! changed

 

[Chanwan]

Interesting. I have a hard time seeing Rafa's first 4 rounds overall as anything but 'on the easier side' of what could have been. But I guess for the latter, he would have preferred to have Fed-Stan together in his half and Andy-Novak battle it out on the other half.
The only other way I can explain his odds going down is the bookies not realizing that a 10th seed is bound to have a tough draw in the last 3-4 rounds. And that would be very odd for bookies not to be aware of that.

Surprised Fed's didn't go down having big servers and forehands in his draw up until Murray, worse than Wawa, in the semi.

Unsurprised by Djoko-Murray going up -> the two favorites in different halves -> better for both.

Stan got a very good draw up until Novak imo and Novak ain't tougher than Fed for him. So unsurprised there as well.

@RF-18 - you got it the other way round, I think. Stan's odd got better despite getting Novak instead of Fed. Either because he, imo, got a very good draw up until Novak and/or because the bookies don't consider Novak tougher than Fed for Stan.

 

[ANDYbhGENIUS]

Well it reads "more specific observations:" 4) Murray Nadal semis

But that ought to be corrected to QFs, as this time it is the Scot who is lucky enough to meet Nadal in the quarters provided both get through.

Thanks for putting up all those stats, though, just a typo that might need correction.

 

[falstaff78]

^^ yes thanks corrected

 

[falstaff78]

Interesting. I have a hard time seeing Rafa's first 4 rounds overall as anything but 'on the easier side' of what could have been. But I guess for the latter, he would have preferred to have Fed-Stan together in his half and Andy-Novak battle it out on the other half.
The only other way I can explain his odds going down is the bookies not realizing that a 10th seed is bound to have a tough draw in the last 3-4 rounds. And that would be very odd for bookies not to be aware of that.

Surprised Fed's didn't go down having big servers and forehands in his draw up until Murray, worse than Wawa, in the semi.

Unsurprised by Djoko-Murray going up -> the two favorites in different halves -> better for both.

Stan got a very good draw up until Novak imo and Novak ain't tougher than Fed for him. So unsurprised there as well.

@RF-18 - you got it the other way round, I think. Stan's odd got better despite getting Novak instead of Fed. Either because he, imo, got a very good draw up until Novak and/or because the bookies don't consider Novak tougher than Fed for Stan.

Good points. It should also be noted that the odds are still in flux. I will update them in a bit when they have had a chance to settle down....

 

[The_18th_Slam]

Interesting. I have a hard time seeing Rafa's first 4 rounds overall as anything but 'on the easier side' of what could have been. But I guess for the latter, he would have preferred to have Fed-Stan together in his half and Andy-Novak battle it out on the other half.
The only other way I can explain his odds going down is the bookies not realizing that a 10th seed is bound to have a tough draw in the last 3-4 rounds. And that would be very odd for bookies not to be aware of that.

I think it's less that they weren't aware, and more that some people weren't giving it that much thought or research. It's not just hardcore Tennis followers that bet on these things.

Great thread, by the way!

 

[Aussie Darcy]

I knew Tomic would be drawn in Djokos path. In fact I think I posted it somewhere:.. 3R truly brutal!

 

[falstaff78]

odds updated 5 hours after the draw....Novak a big winner it would seem.

 

[falstaff78]

Great thread, by the way!

Thanks!

 

[R_Federer]

As a Federer fan I really like Federer's draw! He has been beating Berdych as of late. I like his chances against Murray and perhaps Stan does him a favor by beating Djokovic. Great news for Federer fans with this draw.

 

[The_18th_Slam]

As a Federer fan I really like Federer's draw! He has been beating Berdych as of late. I like his chances against Murray and perhaps Stan does him a favor by beating Djokovic. Great news for Federer fans with this draw.

Oh, come on, man. It's not the end of the world, but drawing Murray at Wimbledon over Wawrinka is never good news.

 

[R_Federer]

Oh, come on, man. It's not the end of the world, but drawing Murray at Wimbledon over Wawrinka is never good news.

Wawrinka just dominated Federer at the FO. Yes, Federer dominated him last year at Wimbledon but still. I would rather face Murray with the chance of Wawrinka in the finals than Djokovic.

 

[The_18th_Slam]

Wawrinka just dominated Federer at the FO. Yes, Federer dominated him last year at Wimbledon but still. I would rather face Murray with the chance of Wawrinka in the finals than Djokovic.

If Murray was drawn with Djokovic, there would have been a good chance he'd have taken Djokovic out. If Federer has to face Wawrinka, better in the semifinal than the final. We've seen how Wawrinka's been really up for Grand Slam finals.

 

[stringertom]

Wawrinka just dominated Federer at the FO. Yes, Federer dominated him last year at Wimbledon but still. I would rather face Murray with the chance of Wawrinka in the finals than Djokovic.

As much as I like SexiRogi, he did not "dominate" Stan @Wimby'14. He was in deep doodoo until late in the second set.

 

[mule250]

As a Federer fan I really like Federer's draw! He has been beating Berdych as of late. I like his chances against Murray and perhaps Stan does him a favor by beating Djokovic. Great news for Federer fans with this draw.

Yeah, i'm pretty happy with it as well. I think you should be glad to see Fed having a fairly easy path to the semis. And, if he makes it there he has a reasonable chance of beating Murray.

 

[The_18th_Slam]

As much as I like SexiRogi, he did not "dominate" Stan @Wimby'14. He was in deep doodoo until late in the second set.

Yeah, he definitely got lucky there. Wawrinka was not a 100%.

 

[Keizer]

Stan got a very good draw up until Novak imo and Novak ain't tougher than Fed for him. So unsurprised there as well.

Think Wawrinka may have trouble with Thiem if he is on. And Raonic could be very dangerous if he is serving well given Wawrinka's less than aggressive return game.

 

[tennisaddict]

Oh, come on, man. It's not the end of the world, but drawing Murray at Wimbledon over Wawrinka is never good news.

Rafa may have other ideas. May play the match of his life against Muzza going 70-68 in the 5th set tie break.

 

[The_18th_Slam]

Rafa may have other ideas. May play the match of his life against Muzza going 70-68 in the 5th set tie break.

That'd be worse news, given the matchup. By the semifinal, Nadal isn't as vulnerable anymore.

 

[tennisaddict]

I expect the following R4

Novak vs Anderson
Isner vs Nishikori

Stan vs Goffin
Dmitrov vs Raonic

Ferrer vs Nadal
Muller vs Murray

Mahut vs Simon
Lopez vs Fed

Expect Novak/Raonic and Fed/Murray SF

 

[Krish872007]

That'd be worse news, given the matchup. By the semifinal, Nadal isn't as vulnerable anymore.

He might be if he plays a 70-68 5th set against Murray lol
And I don't worry as much about this match up on grass anyway. Both guys have to make it to each other, and even then Fed can at least mentally relax a little seeing as he has the memory of 2 wins against his rival at Wimbledon.

 

[The_18th_Slam]

He might be if he plays a 70-68 5th set against Murray lol
And I don't worry as much about this match up on grass anyway. Both guys have to make it to each other, and even then Fed can at least mentally relax a little seeing as he has the memory of 2 wins against his rival at Wimbledon.

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the semifinal. I don't think Nadal will be that much more tougher than Murray on grass in 2015.

 

[Chanwan]

Think Wawrinka may have trouble with Thiem if he is on. And Raonic could be very dangerous if he is serving well given Wawrinka's less than aggressive return game.

I'm not sold on Thiem on grass just yet. Raonic could certainly be dangerous though and he's a very possible semifinalist - he needs to get by the guy who doesn't like tennis in the 3rd though

 

[Chanwan]

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the semifinal. I don't think Nadal will be that much more tougher than Murray on grass in 2015.

I think they're incomparable. Murray >>>> Rafa on grass these days. If both make the QF, I give Murray a 70-30 advantage as of now.

 

[Backhanded Compliment]

So this time, discussions about the draw can be in the context of these objective numbers. The big winners from the draw appears to be Novak, followed Andy, with Stan and Fed also getting bumps. More specific observations:

1) Novak and Andy have presumably benefited from being kept apart.
2) It's obvious that Novak's early draw is of no concern to the bookies.
3) Stan's odds increase from getting Novak instead of Roger! A little strange
4) Nadal's odds decrease from getting Murray in the quarters

#3 makes perfect sense as Murray and Fed both have the sort of wicked slice backhands that can neutralize Stan's Backhand a bit on grass. Keeping it low means Stan can't clobber the ball as much. Still, excited for Stan this wimby... dont expect him to make the finals but hey, never underestimate the man.

 

[The_18th_Slam]

I think they're incomparable. Murray >>>> Rafa on grass these days. If both make the QF, I give Murray a 70-30 advantage as of now.

I give Murray 75-25. I was just saying in case Nadal does get through, the matchup will make Nadal equally tough for Federer as Murray would be.

 

[Backhanded Compliment]

I expect the following R4

Novak vs Anderson
Isner vs Nishikori

Ferrer vs Nadal

Mahut vs Simon
Lopez vs Fed

These particular matchups would be great QF's and potentially take a toll.

 

[Chanwan]

I give Murray 75-25. I was just saying in case Nadal does get through, the matchup will make Nadal equally tough for Federer as Murray would be.

Should Rafa get through, it probably means he's playing well so in that sense I agree yes - even tougher if he's playing really well, given that the grass is slow by then and the match-up factor then will kick in.
And yes, could very well be 75-25 instead.

 

[Shangri La]

Match of the tournament IMO is Murray vs Nadal. If Nadal wins, he will beat Fed blindfolded and peak for the final. I better hope Berdych beats Fed in QF. If Murray wins, Fed may have a good chance as Murray may be tired from Tsonga/Nadal matches. Fed might even have a shot at #18.

 

[Keizer]

Match of the tournament IMO is Murray vs Nadal. If Nadal wins, he will beat Fed blindfolded and peak for the final. I better hope Berdych beats Fed in QF. If Murray wins, Fed may have a good chance as Murray may be tired from Tsonga/Nadal matches. Fed might even have a shot at #18.

Doubt Fed beats any level of Murray in the SF and then Novak in the final. He may beat a worn out Murray but will definitely drop >1 sets in that situation. Don't see him beating Novak after that.

 

[Sysyphus]

Much wow. Obviously rigged for Nadal–Waronka final

j/k, interesting draw. Fed drawing Andrew is a bummer as far as I'm concerned. I'd have higher hopes with Stan in his half. Berd in the quarters is tough as well, but hey, he needs to be able to beat Berdych if he is to have hopes of winning Wimby anyways

Nadal's draw is easy-mode until the quarters, where Murray will rek him. Triple Bagel. Redemption.

Novak's draw is very tough IMO. Tomic, Anderson, Nish, Waronka in sucession is bad.

As for Waronka, I think Raonic or DietFed/FedZero may very well end his run. Rao versus the Dim one in the fourth is a great match. Very open me thinks, though Rao is favored, unfortunately.

Oh, and thanks for the thread OP. Good stuff as always!

 

[Pagoo]

Much wow. Obviously rigged for Nadal–Waronka final

j/k, interesting draw. Fed drawing Andrew is a bummer as far as I'm concerned. I'd have higher hopes with Stan in his half. Berd in the quarters is tough as well, but hey, he needs to be able to beat Berdych if he is to have hopes of winning Wimby anyways

Nadal's draw is easy-mode until the quarters, where Murray will rek him. Triple Bagel. Redemption.

Novak's draw is very tough IMO. Tomic, Anderson, Nish, Waronka in sucession is bad.

As for Waronka, I think Raonic or DietFed/FedZero may very well end his run. Rao versus the Dim one in the fourth is a great match. Very open me thinks, though Rao is favored, unfortunately.

Oh, and thanks for the thread OP. Good stuff as always!

I would have preferred Stan for the simple reason he may not make the semis. Berdych is always a threat but I'm hoping he gets knocked out or weakened

Nadal's draw is easy. Ferrer shouldn't be too much of a threat on grass and I think he can beat the other guys.

I'm not really seeing Djokovic's tough draw. None of those guys will trouble him too much. After the first round, he can go on cruise mode until maybe the QF.

Nishikori may not be 100%. Murray's draw until the QF is not scary. Tsonga is injured. He withdrew from three tournaments after the FO. I don't expect him to bother Murray. May even lose in the first round.

I don't think Nadal will be a walkover for Murray (if he gets there of course).

 

[Feather]

As much as I like SexiRogi, he did not "dominate" Stan @Wimby'14. He was in deep doodoo until late in the second set.

This!

People are highly underestimating Stan. I kinda feel he can be really dangerous!

 

[Sentinel]

Maybe Andy is on the other side.?

From what I understand, these are odds of winning the tournament (percentage odds), not the usual odds. So it seems very strange that the bookies' think Stan's chances are greater now that he's drawn with Djokovic (instead of RF).

 

[Krish872007]

Maybe Andy is on the other side.?

Andy would always have been on the opposite side to Stan though.

 

[Sentinel]

Match of the tournament IMO is Murray vs Nadal. If Nadal wins, he will beat Fed blindfolded and peak for the final. I better hope Berdych beats Fed in QF. If Murray wins, Fed may have a good chance as Murray may be tired from Tsonga/Nadal matches. Fed might even have a shot at #18.

Tsonga is injured, and Nadal is not in good shape. Wasn't on clay after playing quite a lot on clay, how can he suddenly be in good shape after just 2 matches on grass. That too without top players.
Murray gets past Nadal easily. In fact, he gets to the final rather easily.

 

[Sentinel]

Andy would always have been on the opposite side to Stan though.

oh yes, 3 and 4. Yup, you are right.

Would have been much better for him with Andy and Nole on the other side. Only have to get through one.

 

[mellowyellow]

So of course a top seed already out for guy who needs all the help possible....

 

[Big_Dangerous]

Rafa has problems. Nobody beats Thomaz Bellucci five times in a row. Plus, his HTH with Ferrer off clay is 6-6.

Yeah but grass is Ferrer's worst surface, and he's had some early exits at SW 19 in the past. I wouldn't pick him to beat Rafa on grass.