Wimbledon 2014 will be Federer's last chance to win Slam #18

Despite Federer's great improvement, I think his window of opportunity to win more tournaments is rapidly closing due to age. In my opinion, this next Wimbnledon will be his last chance for another slam. He will need to win decisively, dropping very few (or no) sets before the Final. Also, the Final shouldn't go to 5 sets for him to stand a chance.

From watching the IW Final, I see a Federer capable still of flashes of brilliance, but incapable of sustaining momentum/focus during long matches.
 

Wynter

Legend
I'd give his last chance at USO, but agree. Can't see a slam in 2015 unless thw field is extremely unexceptional.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Despite Federer's great improvement, I think his window of opportunity to win more tournaments is rapidly closing due to age. In my opinion, this next Wimbnledon will be his last chance for another slam. He will need to win decisively, dropping very few (or no) sets before the Final. Also, the Final shouldn't go to 5 sets for him to stand a chance.

From watching the IW Final, I see a Federer capable still of flashes of brilliance, but incapable of sustaining momentum/focus during long matches.

While it's probably his best, I don't think it's his only one. He has a slim chance at the US as well and - if father time isn't too kind to Nadal, Djoko and Murray, but Fed can stay at his current level for a year or two more - 2015 and 2016 may actually be just as good chances (i.e. if the rest of the Big-4 starts their decline and Federer doesn't go back to his 2013-mode)
 
I'd give his last chance at USO, but agree. Can't see a slam in 2015 unless thw field is extremely unexceptional.

For Federer not playin Nadal is probably the most important factor. Nadal is the player he stands no chance against at this moment. If Nadal is injured and somebody else takes him out, then Federer's chances improve enormously.
 
While it's probably his best, I don't think it's his only one. He has a slim chance at the US as well and - if father time isn't too kind to Nadal, Djoko and Murray, but Fed can stay at his current level for a year or two more - 2015 and 2016 may actually be just as good chances (i.e. if the rest of the Big-4 starts their decline and Federer doesn't go back to his 2013-mode)

I admit it's possible, especially given Federer's quality. I'm going to say it's quite a stretch though.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
I admit it's possible, especially given Federer's quality. I'm going to say it's quite a stretch though.

We can certainly agree on that. I think 18 is a stretch no matter how we put it. But Wimbledon 2014 sure looks like his best chance as of now. All I'm saying is, it's not impossible that by this time next year or in 2016, the vulnerability that some are seeing in Rafoleray right now may be even more pronounced, whereas Fed could be more or less where he is now.
 
We can certainly agree on that. I think 18 is a stretch no matter how we put it. But Wimbledon 2014 sure looks like his best chance. All I'm saying is, it's not impossible that by this time next year or in 2016, the vulnerability that some are seeing in Rafoleray right now may be even more pronounced, whereas Fed could be more or less where he is now.

Very true indeed. The beautiful thing about players with the huge talent of Federer or Nadal is that you can never count them out. It makes being a fan much easier. ;)
 

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
I can see his chances of winning Slams surviving 2014 for the following reason:
Djokovic, Nadal and Murray are no longer invincible to the lower ranked players in Slams. Federer could get a perfect draw and someone could do him a huge favour still.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Very true indeed. The beautiful thing about players with the huge talent of Federer or Nadal is that you can never count them out. It makes being a fan much easier. ;)

It does. I mean - many thought Fed was done and dusted after 2013. But how can he decline so much in just on year was my question and hope in this respect. And now, he's proving that he hasn't quite. His top level is still good enough to compete with just about anybody (yes, even Nadal as long as the court is somewhat fast/low bouncing). But he has trouble producing that level over whole tournaments/long matches.

As for Nadal - for all we know, he may still be the favorite or top-2 favorite for every clay tournament in five years time. If that is indeed the case, that would make him a surface dominator for 15!!!! years. That's just mind-boggling.
 
I can see his chances of winning Slams surviving 2014 for the following reason:
Djokovic, Nadal and Murray are no longer invincible to the lower ranked players in Slams. Federer could get a perfect draw and someone could do him a huge favour still.

As they say, almost anything is possible. But if I had to bet money on it, I'd say this is Federer's last stand.
 
It does. I mean - many thought Fed was done and dusted after 2013. But how can he decline so much in just on year was my question and hope in this respect. And now, he's proving that he hasn't quite. His top level is still good enough to compete with just about anybody (yes, even Nadal as long as the court is somewhat fast/low bouncing). But he has trouble producing that level over whole tournaments/long matches.

As for Nadal - for all we know, he may still be the favorite or top-2 favorite for every clay tournament in five years time. If that is indeed the case, that would make him a surface dominator for 15!!!! years. That's just mind-boggling.

It really is mind boggling, Chanwan. This era will probably never be equalled again.

Can you imagine Nadal and Fed fall on different halves at Wimbledon and they make it to the Final? Match of the Decade! :)
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
It really is mind boggling, Chanwan. This era will probably never be equalled again.

Can you imagine Nadal and Fed fall on different halves at Wimbledon and they make it to the Final? Match of the Decade! :)

Yes! Now that would be a match. Nadal would possibly still run away with it (he always does, when they play), but it would be the closest thing to a neutral slam-surface between them these years.
 

yellowoctopus

Professional
Sincere thank to OP's opinion. For it is this type of criticism that we find great stories from champions when he or she pushes beyond the expectations.

Roger-Federer-French-Open.jpg
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
Never say never with Fed.

It is all on his racket.

He can be the GOD or the shankerer. Depends on what mood he is in.
 

zam88

Professional
If Federer was to win Slam #18 this year, next year... wherever...

Fed fans - would you want him to insta-retire? or continue to play in hopes of a #19 that may or may not ever come?


See, it's at the point now where if he won #18 that I would like him to complete the season, then maybe play the AO since it comes so soon after the WTF.. but then call it quits.

As much as I like watching Roger play.. as much as I have enjoyed seeing this slight resurgance in the past few months... my one lasting vision of this season was still getting straight setted by Nadal and getting beat at the WTF by Nadal.. and getting beat at Cincy by Nadal... and I just want all that to end.

Frankly, if Nadal would just get re-injured and retire then I'd be fine with Roger playing another 3-4 years... but I can't stomach him playing Nadal
 

Legend of Borg

G.O.A.T.
Lovin the haterade.

This is the fuel for slams to come, mark thy words.

Maybe people should hate on Grigor more often then he'll win a slam or something...
 

Roddick85

Hall of Fame
Despite Federer's great improvement, I think his window of opportunity to win more tournaments is rapidly closing due to age. In my opinion, this next Wimbnledon will be his last chance for another slam. He will need to win decisively, dropping very few (or no) sets before the Final. Also, the Final shouldn't go to 5 sets for him to stand a chance.

From watching the IW Final, I see a Federer capable still of flashes of brilliance, but incapable of sustaining momentum/focus during long matches.

Sure, but then again, people have been saying this for years now. Just based on what he's accomplished, regardless of age, I think it's impossible to completely write Federer off as a potential contender, as long as he'll be playing. In all logic, yes age is obviously not in his favor, but then again, Djokovic/Nadal/Murray aren't immune to aging either, and I still believe that these guys will see a greater decline in they're level, even earlier than Federer did because the grinding/defensive style is a lot harder on the body.

Youngsters aren't exactly making a great impact on the established order right now, only Dimitrov is starting to show signs he might be the one that will challenge Federer/Nadal/Djokovic soon. So even if Federer is a year older in 2015, if he keeps a decent level like he is this year, I wouldn't see why it would be impossible for him to win a slam then, if he doesn't this year.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
If Federer was to win Slam #18 this year, next year... wherever...

Fed fans - would you want him to insta-retire? or continue to play in hopes of a #19 that may or may not ever come?


See, it's at the point now where if he won #18 that I would like him to complete the season, then maybe play the AO since it comes so soon after the WTF.. but then call it quits.

As much as I like watching Roger play.. as much as I have enjoyed seeing this slight resurgance in the past few months... my one lasting vision of this season was still getting straight setted by Nadal and getting beat at the WTF by Nadal.. and getting beat at Cincy by Nadal... and I just want all that to end.

Frankly, if Nadal would just get re-injured and retire then I'd be fine with Roger playing another 3-4 years... but I can't stomach him playing Nadal

Tbh, I don't see what the big deal is about Nadal. If Fed beats Nadal again, great because he's not supposed to anyway. If he doesn't, big deal because he's not supposed to win anyway.

The world doesn't revolve around Federer losing to Nadal. I remember Federer winning Dubai beating Djokovic and Berdych, and beating Murray and Tsonga at the AO after we all thought he was done. I remember him making the finals in IW losing a nailbiter to Djokovic in basically 2011 mode at 32 years of age.
 

ultradr

Legend
Never say never with Fed.

It is all on his racket.

He can be the GOD or the shankerer. Depends on what mood he is in.


He just can't raise his game when pressured. That's
his career long problem. He is GOAT front runner and closer of a match but just doesn't like pressure situations.

He just needs some help from GOD.

A few players in top 10 are injured or recovering from surgery, and so on:
notably Nadal, Murray, Del Potro and Tsonga.

All he needs is some kind of injury on Djokovic.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
He just can't raise his game when pressured. That's
his career long problem. He is GOAT front runner and closer of a match but just doesn't like pressure situations.

He just needs some help from GOD.

A few players in top 10 are injured or recovering from surgery, and so on:
notably Nadal, Murray, Del Potro and Tsonga.

All he needs is some kind of injury on Djokovic.

Or from the ITF by changing the slow grass to fast like the 90s. That would increase Federer's chance immensely.
 

joeri888

G.O.A.T.
He just can't raise his game when pressured. That's
his career long problem. He is GOAT front runner and closer of a match but just doesn't like pressure situations.

He just needs some help from GOD.

A few players in top 10 are injured or recovering from surgery, and so on:
notably Nadal, Murray, Del Potro and Tsonga.

All he needs is some kind of injury on Djokovic.

He doesn't like pressure situations as much as Nadal and Djokovic maybe, but saying he can't raise his game in pressure moments is ridiculous. That all depends on form. He has raised his game in pressure situations SO MANY TIMES.
 

spinovic

Hall of Fame
How many last chances has Federer had already? Many were saying this after 2012 Wimbledon.

I just enjoy watching him play and am amazed that he is still a legitimate threat to win majors at age 32. I think I'll just continue to enjoy and forget about projecting his demise, since he has continually defied those projections.
 

MachiA.

Banned
He just can't raise his game when pressured.......
All he needs is some kind of injury on Djokovic.

Exactly. He is weak minded - the metro- and hom.- sexual p...y he is.

Buying an ATP 500 is much cheaper than buying a Masters.

As we could see in Dubai and Indian Wells. :)

KR
 
Exactly. He is weak minded - the metro- and hom.- sexual p...y he is.

Buying an ATP 500 is much cheaper than buying a Masters.

As we could see in Dubai and Indian Wells. :)

KR

Why would you even post this?

It's just hateful and bad in general....

As for the topic of the thread, I believe that Roger has a few more chances left in him. He wants to play until at least the 2016 Olympics, so that means he should have 6 or so majors left to compete in minimum.

I think he has a decent chance at SW19 and the USO this year, and I think he would have a shot at the AO and SW19 next year. I don't think this is his last chance :)
 
Yes! Now that would be a match. Nadal would possibly still run away with it (he always does, when they play), but it would be the closest thing to a neutral slam-surface between them these years.

I'm not so convinced Nadal would run away with it. At this point grass might be the last place where Federer might have a chance against Nadal (and indoors).
 
Sure, but then again, people have been saying this for years now. Just based on what he's accomplished, regardless of age, I think it's impossible to completely write Federer off as a potential contender, as long as he'll be playing. In all logic, yes age is obviously not in his favor, but then again, Djokovic/Nadal/Murray aren't immune to aging either, and I still believe that these guys will see a greater decline in they're level, even earlier than Federer did because the grinding/defensive style is a lot harder on the body.

Youngsters aren't exactly making a great impact on the established order right now, only Dimitrov is starting to show signs he might be the one that will challenge Federer/Nadal/Djokovic soon. So even if Federer is a year older in 2015, if he keeps a decent level like he is this year, I wouldn't see why it would be impossible for him to win a slam then, if he doesn't this year.

The thing is Federer might have a good chance as long as he avoids longer matches. I really can't see him succeed in longer matches against the elite anymore.

It has been a theme for Federer lately to start a match hot, and then fizzle out like a bottle of cheap champagne. He does it all the time. IW, AO, last year's Cincy, etc.

Djokovic and Nadal have that extra gear that kicks in later in the match when needed, and which in my opinion makes all the difference.
 
Why would you even post this?

It's just hateful and bad in general....

As for the topic of the thread, I believe that Roger has a few more chances left in him. He wants to play until at least the 2016 Olympics, so that means he should have 6 or so majors left to compete in minimum.

I think he has a decent chance at SW19 and the USO this year, and I think he would have a shot at the AO and SW19 next year. I don't think this is his last chance :)

Perhaps "last chance" is too stern an assessment. I think it's his last clear chance. But if he were to win Wimbledon this year, that would give him some much needed confidence, which might translate into further opportunitoes.
 
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tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
The thing is Federer might have a good chance as long as he avoids longer matches. I really can't see him succeed in longer matches against the elite anymore.

......

Djokovic and Nadal have that extra gear that kicks in later in the match when needed, and which in my opinion makes all the difference.

There is a small thing called age and number of matches on tour. Fed is 5 years older anc probably played 300-400 matches more than these two. I will be eagerly seeing how they perform at 32.

Meanwhile when Fed was the age Novak and Nole are now, he didnt have pressure situations as he used to lose 3-5 matches a year in all. Some difference there.
 
Despite Federer's great improvement, I think his window of opportunity to win more tournaments is rapidly closing due to age. In my opinion, this next Wimbnledon will be his last chance for another slam. He will need to win decisively, dropping very few (or no) sets before the Final. Also, the Final shouldn't go to 5 sets for him to stand a chance.

From watching the IW Final, I see a Federer capable still of flashes of brilliance, but incapable of sustaining momentum/focus during long matches.

Hate to disagree with you buddy, but as long as Federer plays, he will be in contention to win every tournament he plays in......... Major tournament or not.
As a fan, I want him to play for as long as he's healthy. Obviously, his major obstacles are the other members of the Big 4. But the luck of the draw is out there, so I won't count him out. He's a great champion, and won 17 Majors so don't underestimate the guy.

TW fans are so easy to count out these 4. A few weeks ago, Djoker lost to Fed, and suddenly Fed will win W, FO and USO. Djoko has lost it, and all is doom and gloom on his camp. Then last week, Djoker wins IW, and suddenly he'll overtake the number 1 ranking and the Slams. The same goes for Rafa and his legions.........just my 1£€¥$
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Despite Federer's great improvement, I think his window of opportunity to win more tournaments is rapidly closing due to age. In my opinion, this next Wimbnledon will be his last chance for another slam. He will need to win decisively, dropping very few (or no) sets before the Final. Also, the Final shouldn't go to 5 sets for him to stand a chance.

From watching the IW Final, I see a Federer capable still of flashes of brilliance, but incapable of sustaining momentum/focus during long matches.

I agree with you in general, but it's impossible how much Federer will deteriorate in 1 year so I don't know whether this year will be his last chance or not.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
I'm not so convinced Nadal would run away with it. At this point grass might be the last place where Federer might have a chance against Nadal (and indoors).

Well, we agree on that (I did say it was the closest thing to a neutral slam-surface). He also still has a chance on fast outdoor HC and maybe even in Madrid.
As for Wimbledon, in truth, I think they would be close to 50-50. But I would hesitate to really believe that as their matches (with Rafa winning and Roger imploding) have left me disappointed too often. And I'm not sure Roger himself has the belief vs. Rafa any more. He sure didn't in Australia - or it faded quickly.
 

spinovic

Hall of Fame
I think as long as he's healthy and moving well, he will always be a threat on grass...at least until someone emerges who is really great on that surface. At this point, Federer is still the best grass court player in the world, that and the nature of grass (quicker points), gives him a much better shot against Djokovic and Nadal since he has a chance to avoid the type of grinding physical game that happens on clay and hard courts.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
I think as long as he's healthy and moving well, he will always be a threat on grass...at least until someone emerges who is really great on that surface. At this point, Federer is still the best grass court player in the world, that and the nature of grass (quicker points), gives him a much better shot against Djokovic and Nadal since he has a chance to avoid the type of grinding physical game that happens on clay and hard courts.

Actually I think you'll find that Murray is still the best grass court player in the world.
 

tacou

G.O.A.T.
Things can always happen...it's unlikely, but say Nadal out with injury, Murray is in poor form, and Djokovic is taken out in a jaw-dropping first round exit. That could happen at any slam in the next 2 years and Fed is suddenly the overwhelming favorite to win.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
Things can always happen...it's unlikely, but say Nadal out with injury, Murray is in poor form, and Djokovic is taken out in a jaw-dropping first round exit. That could happen at any slam in the next 2 years and Fed is suddenly the overwhelming favorite to win.

That's a lot of wishful thinking going on there! :wink:
 
Actually I think you'll find that Murray is still the best grass court player in the world.

I would have agreed with this months ago, but how he looks coming back from his surgery I would say no. It would be very surprising if he can win Wimbledon in this form. Best grass courter now is hard to say, but it probably isnt Murray. Djokovic was never that great a grass courter despite winning a wimbledon. Nadal has sucked on grass lately. Federer is still a question mark. Probably if push came to shove I would have to say Federer though with Murray struggling. The last time Federer wasnt playing his worst ever tennis and played on grass he won Wimbledon and was in the finals of the Olympics.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
I would have agreed with this months ago, but how he looks coming back from his surgery I would say no. It would be very surprising if he can win Wimbledon in this form. Best grass courter now is hard to say, but it probably isnt Murray. Djokovic was never that great a grass courter despite winning a wimbledon. Nadal has sucked on grass lately. Federer is still a question mark. Probably if push came to shove I would have to say Federer though with Murray struggling. The last time Federer wasnt playing his worst ever tennis and played on grass he won Wimbledon and was in the finals of the Olympics.

Murray may be struggling at the moment but the fact remains that he has won his last 18 matches on grass and has been the best player on that surface for the past two years and the most consistent for the last five.
 
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