Wimbledon 2014 will be Federer's last chance to win Slam #18

[naslamchamp]

Murray may be struggling at the moment but the fact remains that he has won his last 18 matches on grass and has been the best player on that surface for the past two years and the most consistent for the last five.

Of course, but I doubt he will end up being the best grass court player in 2014. Just too much ground for him to cover in too short a time right now.

 

[spinovic]

Actually I think you'll find that Murray is still the best grass court player in the world.

We'll just have to disagree on that one. I don't think there's a big difference between Djokovic and Murray on grass to be honest. Their accomplishments there are more or less the same, so I need to see a little more than one Wimbledon title to give him that much respect.

If Federer had to face one of the other three guys to win a Wimbledon final, I would hands down rather see him go against Murray than either of the other two.

 

[Djokovic2011]

If Federer had to face one of the other three guys to win a Wimbledon final, I would hands down rather see him go against Murray than either of the other two.

Why do you say that? Nadal I understand but Murray>Djokovic on grass.

 

[spinovic]

I would have agreed with this months ago, but how he looks coming back from his surgery I would say no. It would be very surprising if he can win Wimbledon in this form. Best grass courter now is hard to say, but it probably isnt Murray. Djokovic was never that great a grass courter despite winning a wimbledon. Nadal has sucked on grass lately. Federer is still a question mark. Probably if push came to shove I would have to say Federer though with Murray struggling. The last time Federer wasnt playing his worst ever tennis and played on grass he won Wimbledon and was in the finals of the Olympics.

He also won Halle last year, the worst year he's had in a decade. Maybe the physical advantage those guys have over him can still allow them to come out on top, but when it comes to skill on the grass, Federer is still the best. That doesn't mean he's unbeatable.

 

[spinovic]

Why do you say that? Nadal I understand but Murray>Djokovic on grass.

Because I still think Djokovic is mentally stronger than Murray and Federer's best chance in a high level slam match (on any surface) is against Andy Murray. Murray has still only beat Roger one time in a slam I believe. I've never viewed him on the same level as the other three and still don't. But, that's just me.

At this point, any time Federer faces those guys it is a toss-up in a best case scenario for him because they enjoy a fairly significant physical advantage, IMO.

 

[abmk]

He just can't raise his game when pressured. That's
his career long problem. He is GOAT front runner and closer of a match but just doesn't like pressure situations.

He just needs some help from GOD.

A few players in top 10 are injured or recovering from surgery, and so on:
notably Nadal, Murray, Del Potro and Tsonga.

All he needs is some kind of injury on Djokovic.

There are PLENTY, PLENTY of occasions where he has raised his game when pressured.

starting off with

roddick wimbledon 2004
nadal wimbledon 2007
tipsarevic AO 08
andreev USO 08
haas RG 09
delpo RG 09
davydenko AO 10
falla wim 10
benneteau wim 12
murray wim 12

etc.

he may not be as good as nadal at that or djokovic in 11 or other instances, but he's pretty good at it.

 

[Povl Carstensen]

In my opinion, this next Wimbnledon will be his last chance for another slam.

While it's probably his best, I don't think it's his only one. He has a slim chance at the US as well and - if father time isn't too kind to Nadal, Djoko and Murray, but Fed can stay at his current level for a year or two more - 2015 and 2016 may actually be just as good chances (i.e. if the rest of the Big-4 starts their decline and Federer doesn't go back to his 2013-mode)

I admit it's possible, especially given Federer's quality. I'm going to say it's quite a stretch though.

Yawn...
10 chx

 

[Russeljones]

He just can't raise his game when pressured. That's
his career long problem. He is GOAT front runner and closer of a match but just doesn't like pressure situations.

He just needs some help from GOD.

A few players in top 10 are injured or recovering from surgery, and so on:
notably Nadal, Murray, Del Potro and Tsonga.

All he needs is some kind of injury on Djokovic.

So I take it you started watching tennis in 2013?

 

[monfed]

USO 15 will be Fed's last shot at a slam.

 

[heninfan99]

He can win any slam if Nadal is out.

 

[martini1]

After '09 Fed's chances in Wimby is more like 50-60% luck. He will need not only a good draw but also other players playing poorly to win it all. Especially the need of having Nadal and/or Djoker not playing in his top form (and exit early).

 

[Forehand Of Doom]

Hate to disagree with you buddy, but as long as Federer plays, he will be in contention to win every tournament he plays in......... Major tournament or not.
As a fan, I want him to play for as long as he's healthy. Obviously, his major obstacles are the other members of the Big 4. But the luck of the draw is out there, so I won't count him out. He's a great champion, and won 17 Majors so don't underestimate the guy.

TW fans are so easy to count out these 4. A few weeks ago, Djoker lost to Fed, and suddenly Fed will win W, FO and USO. Djoko has lost it, and all is doom and gloom on his camp. Then last week, Djoker wins IW, and suddenly he'll overtake the number 1 ranking and the Slams. The same goes for Rafa and his legions.........just my 1£€¥$

Wawrinka can also be in contention. I meant that this might be his last clear chance.

Remember Federer can't win 5 set matches anymore against top players. Federer hasn't won a 5 set match against a Top 5 player since 2009.

 

[Forehand Of Doom]

I agree with you in general, but it's impossible how much Federer will deteriorate in 1 year so I don't know whether this year will be his last chance or not.

Yes, that's true. I'm just making a guess.

 

[Forehand Of Doom]

Actually I think you'll find that Murray is still the best grass court player in the world.

I agree with this. The question is whether Murray will be back to form for the grass season (aka Wimbledon).

 

[Forehand Of Doom]

Without Federer, Nadal would never have won a slam ??? :shock:

Indeed! And without Roddick, Federer would have just a few. I suppose that makes Brooklyn Decker the GOAT, no?

 

[spinovic]

After '09 Fed's chances in Wimby is more like 50-60% luck. He will need not only a good draw but also other players playing poorly to win it all. Especially the need of having Nadal and/or Djoker not playing in his top form (and exit early).

Considering Djokovic has more often than not not been in top form since 2011, that is certainly possible. Considering Nadal has never been able to string together consecutive dominant seasons and has not been good on grass since 2011, that is quite possible. Who knows with Murray, but even in good form he has only defeated Federer one time in a major, so if Fed's form is good, I'll take my chances with any version of Andy Murray.

If Federer can avoid getting bounced and get deep into Wimbledon, I like his chances as good as anyone.

 

[Federer20042006]

What about the US Open? His chances are better there than at Wimbledon, as his game is much better suited to hardcourt than grass these days.

 

[Federer20042006]

Wawrinka can also be in contention. I meant that this might be his last clear chance.

Remember Federer can't win 5 set matches anymore against top players. Federer hasn't won a 5 set match against a Top 5 player since 2009.

Huh? Djokovic and Murray in 2012 Wimbledon ring any bells? Djokovic at 2011 French Open?

 

[Forehand Of Doom]

Huh? Djokovic and Murray in 2012 Wimbledon ring any bells? Djokovic at 2011 French Open?

Those matches didn't go to 5 sets, which was my point.

 

[Federer20042006]

Those matches didn't go to 5 sets, which was my point.

I assumed you meant "best of 5 set matches," because saying he hasn't beaten a top 5 player in a match that went 5 sets it utterly meaningless.

You could say the same thing in 2004-2006.

 

[martini1]

Considering Djokovic has more often than not not been in top form since 2011, that is certainly possible. Considering Nadal has never been able to string together consecutive dominant seasons and has not been good on grass since 2011, that is quite possible. Who knows with Murray, but even in good form he has only defeated Federer one time in a major, so if Fed's form is good, I'll take my chances with any version of Andy Murray.

If Federer can avoid getting bounced and get deep into Wimbledon, I like his chances as good as anyone.

That is really at the mercy of the draw. There is no guarantee he can make it thru 4th round anymore. Anybody top 20 with a sudden hot hand can bounce him.

 

[MachiA.]

Why would you even post this?

Because it is a clear analysis without PC BS.

When Fed has real pressure, i do not mean against Roddick on slow surfaces between 04-07 , he bends over.

As Wilander said about Fed: No balls.


KR

 

[Fiji]

Very likely.

 

[Povl Carstensen]

Federer only loses when he has real pressure, like Nadal only loses when he is injured.