Wimbledon 2015 odds round-up

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
This thread monitored the evolution of bookmakers' odds for Wimbledon 2015.



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Day 11 (SF complete) comments

Federer and Djokovic both won semi-finals today. Federer's odds went up by 26%. Djokovic's by 1.6%.


Day 9 (QF complete) comments

Today was one of the most fascinating days for odds. Djokovic made a massive, massive gain, reflecting Stan's unanticipated exit. Murray's odds actually declined, despite him winning his quarterfinal. This suggests the markets really, really, emphatically do not believe he can beat Djokovic!!!

Day 8 (Round 4 complete) comments

Djoko's odds jump back up by 4 p.p. after he completed his win over Anderson. Murray declined a substantial 2 p.p. overnight because of Djokovic's win. This suggests the recent head to head between the two weighs more heavily than the 2013 final.

Day 7 (Round 4, except Djoko-Anderson interrupted) comments
Fed is the big winner today. Likely a combination of his emphatic fourth round win and Berdych's loss to Simon. Djoko's odds in limbo because of interruption with Anderson.

Day 6 (Round 3) comments

The only really noticeable outcome from round 3 is that Roger gained more than Andy. I guess losing a set to Groth because of one double fault bodes less ill for Roger's chances than the third-set breadstick Andy was served at Andreas' bakery

Day 4 comments

After knocking Nadal out, Brown is now the 11th favourite to win the title! His odds increase by a factor of 8! (Including as a special mention, even though I usually only show >1%)

Day 3 comments
Nothing spectacular

Day 2 comments

Novak and Andy continued to rise today; as CDNguy87 suggests, this is likely to be a slow market correction, rather than anything they did today.

Day 1 comments
Novak impressed bookies in dealing with one of the top 15 grass players in the world, without any match practice, in straight sets. Stan impressed the bookies with his performance too.

Comment 3 - odds changes from draw
I created a separate thread for discussion of draw-related odds

Comment 2 - odds changes from grass season
The big loser in odds during grass season was Grigor, who lost early in his defence of Queens. The big winner was Murray, who titled at Queens.

Comment 1 - odds changes from latter half of RG
The changes in odds in the latter half of RG nicely reflect everything we saw.


How I calculated these numbers:

1) I go to oddschecker's Wimbledon odds

2) I only consider the first 20 companies which are proper sportsbooks, as opposed to betting exchanges like betfair where ordinary punters make markets.

3) I take the average payback for each player. I calculate the implied probability of victory (ie 1/payback). these always sum up to more than 100% for obvious reasons.

4) I then scale down all the odds so they sum up to 100%.

5) The column headings show when I downloaded the odds; the change columns show the differences from previous columns, and are colour coded; more green means greater increase and more red means greater decrease

6) The table only shows players with >1% chance of winning; I keep adding as new names pop up

(it's not perfect but it's quick)




Odds for quarterfinals
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Odds for semifinals
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Supertegwyn

Hall of Fame
Good stuff. I think Murray has a higher chance than the bookmakers give him credit, as well as Raonic, and probably less for Wawrinka (still not convinced his game works on grass at all).
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Murray should definitely have greater odds

I'm not sure about that.

He last won a major two years ago, has lost to Djoko 8 times on the trot, and last year in Wimbledon he failed to reach the semis, losing to the guy whom Djokovic beat in the semis.

No doubt his game has progressed leaps and bounds. And being second favourite is a fair reflection of that. Indeed just his strong showing in the second half of RG got him a fair bump in odds. But there is only so much credit you can get for potential dominance as opposed to demonstrated dominance.
 

Terenigma

G.O.A.T.
Murray/Berdych/Raonic should be higher

Nadal/Wawrinka should be lower

Del potro shouldnt be there at all.
 

spinovic

Hall of Fame
My opinion...

Djokovic should be slightly lower, Murray higher. Those two should be about equal. Federer should be higher. Stan should be lower. Kyrgios and Cilic should be higher.
 

chicagodude

Hall of Fame
SUrprised that Nadal still gets odds higher than Tsonga/Cilic/Berdych/Raonic.

IMO, Murray and Djoko should be almost equal at about 25%, Fed about 15%, guys like Cilic/Berdych/Tsonga/Raonic at about 5%, Wawrinka maybe somewhere between 5-10%, Nadal, Nishikori and Dimitrov at about 2-3% and then that's pretty much it.

Surprised to see Kyrgios having such high odds, he hasn't won anything yet! I think his odds are more a result of his cocky attitude than his actual results. Why Delpo is on that list is a mystery. If he even plays, nothing should be expected of him at this point.
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
Murray fans have invented something new PRE-butthurt. hehehehe

And a Murray hater has taken it to whole new level by accusing a fellow Murray hater of being a Murray fan. Brilliant. You are more obsessed by Murray than any fanboi on here.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
And a Murray hater has taken it to whole new level by accusing a fellow Murray hater of being a Murray fan. Brilliant. You are more obsessed by Murray than any fanboi on here.

Murray haters are in complete ruins :) Even turning on themselves - love it!
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
I'm not sure about that.

He last won a major two years ago, has lost to Djoko 8 times on the trot, and last year in Wimbledon he failed to reach the semis, losing to the guy whom Djokovic beat in the semis.

No doubt his game has progressed leaps and bounds. And being second favourite is a fair reflection of that. Indeed just his strong showing in the second half of RG got him a fair bump in odds. But there is only so much credit you can get for potential dominance as opposed to demonstrated dominance.

Point taken - maybe I'll risk some money on Murray then, as he seems to be undervalued by the bookies.
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
Difference - I have tremendous respect for his achievements - whereas you're just a shameless Dimitroll

You just keep telling yourself that mucker - and while you're at it, why not post some examples of me trolling about Dimi (as opposed to about you)?

One day (maybe when your carer explains it to you using words of 2 syllables or less?) you'll get that me thinking you are a complete bawbag has no bearing on my feelings about your hero.

Cheers.
 

ArcspacE

G.O.A.T.
You just keep telling yourself that mucker - and while you're at it, why not post some examples of me trolling about Dimi (as opposed to about you)?



One day (maybe when your carer explains it to you using words of 2 syllables or less?) you'll get that me thinking you are a complete bawbag has no bearing on my feelings about your hero.



Cheers.


This might shock your little world but your opinion of me hardly registers in my Top 50 intellectuals TTW behemoths. Even some of the bots on here command more respect. Wrong on the Internet...

The fact you need to resort to childish name calling tells me everything I need to know about and your seemingly immense tennis knowledge and intellectual tennis capacity. The day you 'troll' me is some distance away, fella - but keep slinging that playground shovel. Perhaps one day you can climb to that level.
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
This might shock your little world but your opinion of me hardly registers in my Top 50 intellectuals TTW behemoths. Even some of the bots on here command more respect. Wrong on the Internet...

The fact you need to resort to childish name calling tells me everything I need to know about and your seemingly immense tennis knowledge and intellectual tennis capacity. The day you 'troll' me is some distance away, fella - but keep slinging that playground shovel. Perhaps one day you can climb to that level.

OK mate - whatever. You never responded at all to me taking the p1ss out of you after Dimi went out of RG early - I must have imagined that you actually responded TWICE to the same p1sstake - that's how much I didn't troll you.:)

Anyhoo - thanks for the chat, I'm off now - I refuse to engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed man. Cheers.
 

ArcspacE

G.O.A.T.
OK mate - whatever. You never responded at all to me taking the p1ss out of you after Dimi went out of RG early - I must have imagined that you actually responded TWICE to the same p1sstake - that's how much I didn't troll you.:)

Anyhoo - thanks for the chat, I'm off now - I refuse to engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed man. Cheers.


Running away already? Serves you right for bringing a knife to a gun-fight....

I know your 'kind' on these forums - bring everything you've got next time. Much love.

Xxo
 
This might shock your little world but your opinion of me hardly registers in my Top 50 intellectuals TTW behemoths. Even some of the bots on here command more respect. Wrong on the Internet...

The fact you need to resort to childish name calling tells me everything I need to know about and your seemingly immense tennis knowledge and intellectual tennis capacity. The day you 'troll' me is some distance away, fella - but keep slinging that playground shovel. Perhaps one day you can climb to that level.

Batz is being a naughty boy again is he?
 
J

JRAJ1988

Guest
Another thread derailed.

It's going to be an interesting Wimbledon, we can all concur with that surely?
 

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
I'm going to have to concur with a lot of others in that Murray and Raonic seem like really good value for those odds.

I'm not making any guarantees, but if you take a look at the FO odds thread you'll see that listening to my advice can pay.
 

GabeT

G.O.A.T.
Good example of the need to read stats correctly. Nole is the favorite and if he loses many will claim the odds were all wrong to begin with. But the odds actually shows that Nole has a 70% chance of losing.
 
lol at Federer's odds staying static after Halle, bookies are obviously not impressed by it

It honestly isn't really much of an indication. Federer's Halle draws are usually fairly soft. Besides that, just like in any sport, the level amps up on the biggest stage too. It's not like Wimbledon has a Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome to really shows us who's looking good going into it.
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
lol at Federer's odds staying static after Halle, bookies are obviously not impressed by it

It honestly isn't really much of an indication. Federer's Halle draws are usually fairly soft. Besides that, just like in any sport, the level amps up on the biggest stage too. It's not like Wimbledon has a Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome to really shows us who's looking good going into it.

and yet murray's odds got a bump for winning a comparable tournament and nadal's for winning an easier tournament. what gives?

do you guys think it has something to do with rodge's age?
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
My opinion...

Djokovic should be slightly lower, Murray higher. Those two should be about equal. Federer should be higher. Stan should be lower. Kyrgios and Cilic should be higher.
I think what people forget is that Murray is bound to draw both Fed and Djoko (whether they meet is another matter), whereas the latter two have a 50-50 chance of avoiding Murray until the final.

Do people still think Murray is undervalued after his bump?

@falstaff, properly. And him only reaching one GS final in the past what, 3 years? (seriously, can that be?)
 

tennis_commentator

Hall of Fame
Nadal's chances increased when he lost in the QF of Roland Garros, because its allowed him his best preparation for Wimbledon ever (plus the dates were changed anyway).
Perfect combination of rest, practice and play.
 

tennis_commentator

Hall of Fame
The tennis world would be quite fascinating if Wawrinka won Wimbledon.
He's a lot better at the hardcourt slams (prior to this year), so to have won the 2 natural surface slams, then go to US Open/AO.....what a weird situation.
 

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
Why do you have Novak so low? :confused: The guy is reigning champ and world number 1 - not to mention bookies favourite.



Yeah, placing Djokovic at lower odds than Wawrinka on grass is pretty insane. If peak Wawrinka plays peak Djokovic in the final, Stan would have a chance, but Stan is far more likely to crash out in an early round or be in poor form in the later rounds against the top guys.
 

swordtennis

G.O.A.T.
Why do you have Novak so low? :confused: The guy is reigning champ and world number 1 - not to mention bookies favourite.

True however I am going by recent trends. Murray is looking fabulous right now on the grass. Unbeatable really. Just won Queens. Federer is not looking too shabby as well. Djokovic just got done grinding it out on Clay only to fail right at the end. I have not seen his form yet. I think he might be smoked right now. US Open I am more confident in him right now. Stan has to be full of confidence right now. This could change once I see Djokovic's form in the first few rounds.

Yeah, placing Djokovic at lower odds than Wawrinka on grass is pretty insane. If peak Wawrinka plays peak Djokovic in the final, Stan would have a chance, but Stan is far more likely to crash out in an early round or be in poor form in the later rounds against the top guys.

Wawrinka could be taken out early by a big hitter. I put him up there due to being confident right now. He is the one I would be the least surprised if he got punched out in the early rounds.
 

tennis_commentator

Hall of Fame
On grass, Wawrinka doesn't have as much time to set-up his big backhand, so definitely not as suited to grass (and even though he's good at the US Open, he's better at the Australian Open because of the extra time it gives him).
I definitely won't be expecting Wawrinka to win Wimbledon, no matter what form he's in.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
On grass, Wawrinka doesn't have as much time to set-up his big backhand, so definitely not as suited to grass (and even though he's good at the US Open, he's better at the Australian Open because of the extra time it gives him).
I definitely won't be expecting Wawrinka to win Wimbledon, no matter what form he's in.

Especially not if he has to play Kevin Anderson in an early round.
 

Feña14

G.O.A.T.
Those are some interesting changes.

Murrays chances getting better after finding out he has to go through Tsonga, Nadal, Federer then Djokovic? lol.
 

soderling4

New User
Why not put your money on every single match of Murray? Lets say his odds during the tournament wil be 1,01 1,02 1,1 1,3 1,35 1,6 and 1,9 you Will get 6. Its almost the double of what you get now..
 
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