Wimbledon 2019 SF: Roger Federer [2] vs Rafael Nadal [3]

[albertobra]

Rafa might seem the favorite....but just can't dismiss Fed. Me and others have made this mistake before.
Undestimate Fed in Wimbledon SF? Nope. For me he is the guy to beat in Wimbledon....Always.

Crowd will be with him.....and this already means a lot.

As for the game, we have to see how Fed will feel his BH. And serve has to be perfect. Of course Rafa will do anything possible to rally and to avoid Fed coming to the net. That is clue for him. Fed will do anythig possible to shorten points and go to the net.

On Fed's serve, any point that goes over 5 shots, means trouble for Fed. Fed will need to read well Rafa's serve to try to get control of the point.

Prediction...amazing match. Roger in 5.

 

[Joseph_K]

Before the Open Era began, Bill Tilden won his third and last singles title at Wimbledon in 1930 having won it for second time in 1921.

Connors is the closest with 8

 

[Rina]

Earths mightiest warrior needs this to happen?

Probably not, but safety net, no?

 

[Enga]

I really didn't expect them to play each other again so soon. I imagine Nadal must be pulling all the stops just to get here. Court geometry wise, tool wise, Federer has the advantage for sure. But recency bias takes its toll on even the player's minds. There's always a chance Nadal can mindgame his way through this one. I vote Federer in 5.

 

[swordtennis]

Feds backhand is the best it has ever been. He seems to have been working on the running bh. He is going to need the bhdtl and the runner big time. Do it!

 

[Yugram]

I really didn't expect them to play each other again so soon. I imagine Nadal must be pulling all the stops just to get here. Court geometry wise, tool wise, Federer has the advantage for sure. But recency bias takes its toll on even the player's minds. There's always a chance Nadal can mindgame his way through this one. I vote Federer in 5.

Nadal doesn’t need any mind games to win tommorow. He is the better player at Wimbledon this year, he should just show his game and not choke. If anyone needs mind games, it’s Federer.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Excite

 

[ChaelAZ]

I am thinking Nadal in 4, but possible it could go the distance. They know each other so well, both are having more peaks and dips in performance, and both will feel pressure to compete, so it will be a roller coaster.

 

[merwy]

The final results were 41.9 percent for rafa and 58.1 percent for fed. Granted I don't know how many people voted after the match but if we take these numbers up front this is a poll result that I would expect given how strongly this place skews pro fed. So assuming a tossop fed match is 60 fed wins -40 loses on TTW, people must not think this is a tossup match for fed, they think nadal is heavily favored. These poll numbers are something I'd expect for RG, fed fans on here must be feeling bad about this match.

Nonsense, that’s heavily influenced by people that voted afterwards. Fed is often favored in polls but nobody was expecting him to win that one. AO17 was a HUGE surprise.

 

[clayqueen]

Ah yes, the famous Roddick Queens example, as if that hasn't been debunked to death. Let's not open that can of worms again.

Thought I'd dig up the video. I was beginning to think I was imagining things.

 

[DSH]

Anything can happen.
Someone in 5 sets.

 

[Fed881981]

So far, the poll say ~54-46 Nadal. It would be hard to see 2008 repeated (a straight-set loss at RG followed by losing to Nadal at Wimbledon). Regardless, tomorrow will bring bad memories from that day.

I hate when Fed loses. I hate it more when he loses in slams. Even more so when he loses in slams to no-names. But nothing comes close to losing to Nadal... and at the holy grass of Wimbledon?!!! A clay courter beating Federer at the grass of Wimbledon?!!! That's something that I can't swallow!

And because Djokovic plays first tomorrow, I will root for him just in case Nadal wins. What a f*cked up situation! only Nadal can do that to me

 

[EugeneVDebs]

Feddy gets an early set but 3rd and 4th are Nadals and he wins in 4

 

[swordtennis]

Nadal loves to pin fed in that bh corner. If fed can get the ccrbh working he can get some UE on the FH side of nads. Fingers crossed!

 

[swordtennis]

Eugene Debs one of the GOATS.

 

[tudwell]

If Nadal is outpacing Fed, that doesn’t bode well. I also voted Nadal in 4.

Yeah but he’s only getting 61% of first serves in. He’s normally much higher – usually above 70% I think. Will a few more aces make up for all the extra second serves he has to play? Plus 3 of his 5 matches were against quite poor returners (Kyrgios, Tsonga, Querrey). I favor Nadal slightly in the semi, but I don’t think he’ll outserve Fed there.

 

[DSH]

So far, the poll say ~54-46 Nadal. It would be hard to see 2008 repeated (a straight-set loss at RG followed by losing to Nadal at Wimbledon). Regardless, tomorrow will bring bad memories from that day.

I hate when Fed loses. I hate it more when he loses in slams. Even more so when he loses in slams to no-names. But nothing comes close to losing to Nadal... and at the holy grass of Wimbledon?!!! A clay courter beating Federer at the grass of Wimbledon?!!! That's something that I can't swallow!

And because Djokovic plays first tomorrow, I will root for him just in case Nadal wins. What a f*cked up situation! only Nadal can do that to me

A clay courter would not have reached 9 Grand Slam finals on hard courts nor 5 finals at Wimbledon.
Stop whining and face what happens tomorrow for what it is: a simple tennis match.
What happens in your life is much more important than the adoration that a person can have for their idols.

 

[malbaker86]

Good thing they made it this far because when either of the Big 3 loses early in a GS tourney, it really DOES diminish the slam as looking forward to a possible showdown is gone.

 

[3fees]

Federer has a 2-1 record against Nadal on grass.

Handicappers take on this match.

This should be an outstanding tennis match since Federer and Nadal are two of the greatest in the game. I am going to pick Roger Federer to win this match. This should be a close contest but I see Federer having an edge over Nadal on grass. Federer’s transition from back court to front court is better than Nadal’s and I see that being the reason for the Swiss master having more success at Wimbledon. Federer has looked in outstanding form and I see him securing a spot in the final.

Cheers
3Fees

 

[Mike Sams]

If Novak Djokovic brutalizes Bautista Agut tomorrow in straight sets on center court, it's likely that both Nadal and Federer will have some of that wind taken out of their sails when they step onto the court following that match and realizing who's going to be waiting for either of them on Sunday. I don't think it would be great for Federer's legacy to lose 3 Wimbledon finals to Novak Djokovic. And it probably won't do Nadal any favours to lose another Grand Slam match to Djokovic.

 

[Mike Sams]

I don't know who'll be playing the final, but if you or anyone is gonna conclude who'll be playing the final, it'd be good to look at all the facts before reaching any conclusion.
I'll give you 1 fact that is being overlooked, but it could have some bearing, and that is DJOKOVIC has played BAUTISTA AGUT twice this year, and DJOKOVIC has lost both times, and in this semifinal DJOKOVIC got to play BAUTISTA AGUT, so for DJOKOVIC, apparently BAUTISTA AGUT is a hurdle that perhaps ought to be considered.
After all DJOKOVIC has won 2 tournies this year, something that for you got some implications, nevertheless BAUTISTA AGUT got him both times, one of them on the slow Miami courts where DJOKOVIC has won 6 times.

As I was saying I don't claim to know who's gonna win, but all facts have to be discussed.

Grand Slams are a different beast, Topspin_80. Bautista is going to be obliterated tomorrow.

 

[Otacon]

If Novak Djokovic brutalizes Bautista Agut tomorrow in straight sets on center court, it's likely that both Nadal and Federer will have some of that wind taken out of their sails when they step onto the court following that match and realizing who's going to be waiting for either of them on Sunday. I don't think it would be great for Federer's legacy to lose 3 Wimbledon finals to Novak Djokovic. And it probably won't do Nadal any favours to lose another Grand Slam match to Djokovic.

So they should default ? That's your solution ?

Champions always believe they have a chance and even if the conditions favor Djokovic, his draw is a joke. He's not unbeatable.

 

[SonicNirvana]

Nadal in 4 close sets: 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 6-4.

If Federer serves well, he definitely has a chance. Nadal has to serve well himself and not throw up those weak 2nd serves as he did against Querrey. And yeah, the BH DTL needs to be firing.
In general, Rafa has to play better than he did against Querrey/Sousa. And I think he can do that.

I guess the real question is what happens in the final. Based on what I've seen, both Fed or Nadal will get thrashed by Djokovic in straights.

This match should be a classic. He won’t have the huge advantage he has on RG

 

[er4claw]

Nonsense, that’s heavily influenced by people that voted afterwards. Fed is often favored in polls but nobody was expecting him to win that one. AO17 was a HUGE surprise.

I thought 2017 was lean nadal myself (If you go by Safe, likely, lean, tossup). I think this one is likely Nadal but pretty close to Safe Nadal win.

 

[DSH]

This match should be a classic. He won’t have the huge advantage he has on RG

what huge advantage?

 

[Mike Sams]

So they should default ? That's your solution ?

Champions always believe they have a chance and even if the conditions favor Djokovic, his draw is a joke. He's not unbeatable.

I'm not saying they'll default but we probably won't be getting an epic match from them. I think it could be a heavily flawed UE error ridden match. It reminds me of Federer's effort against Djokovic in the 2012 French Open semifinal after Nadal had already made the final. Federer played like he didn't really give a damn. I'm not sure about where Nadal's head is at but what I know for a fact is that when Nadal is destroying guys left and right throughout the draw, he suddenly looks confused or desperate against Djokovic. I don't know if we're going to get anything close to that 5 set Wimbledon epic between Nadal/Djokovic if they meet. People were expecting an epic in their AO final considering Nadal's form leading up along with their 2012 AO war. But he didn't have any fight in him.

 

[Otacon]

Nadal vs Federer tactical preview
By Craig O'Shannessy, strategy analyst for Wimbledon, ATP Tour and Novak Djokovic

How Nadal can win
I never thought I would say this, but at this year's Wimbledon Nadal is posting better service numbers than Federer.
He is winning more points on his first serve (83 per cent compared to 82), has hit more aces (47 compared to 42) and is hitting a more powerful first serve (117 mph on average compared to 116mph).
These are staggering numbers for Nadal, who is playing with a little less margin for error than usual by getting in a relatively low 61 per cent of first serve in. By way of comparison, Federer has been up at 65 per cent.

Nadal is playing bigger for sure at the start of the point, and that's an investment in winning the tournament. He's going for more, and that doesn't just happen by accident.

Now, he needs to maintain these sort of figures against Federer, and gamble on missing a few first serves for the reward of picking up precious cheap points.

How Federer can win
Federer needs to make this a more typical grass-court match, and shorten the points by getting to the net as much as possible.
So far this tournament Federer has serve and volleyed 44 times, winning 34 of those points. Nadal has done so just eight times, winning six.

Overall Federer has won 127 our of 158 points at the net, which is a return of 80 per cent points won. Compare that to just the 56 per cent of points he's won at the baseline, and you see why getting forward is such a profitable strategy.

So he needs to try and quicken the points and take Nadal's time away. When the points stretch to beyond eight shots, you start to back Nadal. He's won 47 out of 68 points (69 per cent) of that length this tournament, compared to Federer's return of 42 from 65 (65 per cent).

For more information about patterns of play for players at all levels of the game, go to www.braingametennis.com

 

[Mike Sams]

I thought 2017 was lean nadal myself (If you go by Safe, likely, lean, tossup). I think this one is likely Nadal but pretty close to Safe Nadal win.

The most confusing thing to me about that AO 2017 final was the 6-1 set that Federer won. How did Nadal lose that third set so lopsidedly?

 

[Apun94]

So far, the poll say ~54-46 Nadal. It would be hard to see 2008 repeated (a straight-set loss at RG followed by losing to Nadal at Wimbledon). Regardless, tomorrow will bring bad memories from that day.

I hate when Fed loses. I hate it more when he loses in slams. Even more so when he loses in slams to no-names. But nothing comes close to losing to Nadal... and at the holy grass of Wimbledon?!!! A clay courter beating Federer at the grass of Wimbledon?!!! That's something that I can't swallow!

And because Djokovic plays first tomorrow, I will root for him just in case Nadal wins. What a f*cked up situation! only Nadal can do that to me

No offense bro, but if a mere tennis match affects your life that much, you should do something to change that.
At the end of the day, it really is just a tennis match. Doesnt really affect any of our lives directly

 

[Apun94]

I honestly cant believe people actually expect Nadal to win this one. I guess the poll result is affected by the recent Fedal match at RG 5 weeks ago.
You know what that match showed me? That Fed BH is NOT troubled by the Rafa FH anymore. Fed was driving through the BH so effortlessly, even when the ball bounced high.
Federer loss because Nadal is just the better clay court player, NOT because of the age old tactic of targetting Fed's BH. If the tactic didnt work at RG, it sure as hell isnt going to work at Wimbledon. And Fed is playing the best I have seen him play in a long time. Expect more of a Shanghai '17 type of match rather than the RG'19 match.
As a Nadal fan, I am afraid it's going to be a 4 set win for Fed, if not a straight sets massacre. I really hope I am proved wrong but such is the situation

 

[Picmun]

 

[Apun94]

I honestly cant believe people actually expect Nadal to win this one. I guess the poll result is affected by the recent Fedal match at RG 5 weeks ago.
You know what that match showed me? That Fed BH is NOT troubled by the Rafa FH anymore. Fed was driving through the BH so effortlessly, even when the ball bounced high.
Federer loss because Nadal is just the better clay court player, NOT because of the age old tactic of targetting Fed's BH. If the tactic didnt work at RG, it sure as hell isnt going to work at Wimbledon. And Fed is playing the best I have seen him play in a long time. Expect more of a Shanghai '17 type of match rather than the RG'19 match.
As a Nadal fan, I am afraid it's going to be a 4 set win for Fed, if not a straight sets massacre. I really hope I am proved wrong but such is the situation

 

[StrongRule]

I honestly cant believe people actually expect Nadal to win this one. I guess the poll result is affected by the recent Fedal match at RG 5 weeks ago.
You know what that match showed me? That Fed BH is NOT troubled by the Rafa FH anymore. Fed was driving through the BH so effortlessly, even when the ball bounced high.
Federer loss because Nadal is just the better clay court player, NOT because of the age old tactic of targetting Fed's BH. If the tactic didnt work at RG, it sure as hell isnt going to work at Wimbledon. And Fed is playing the best I have seen him play in a long time.
As a Nadal fan, I am afraid it's going to be a 4 set win for Fed, if not a straight sets massacre. I really hope I am proved wrong but such is the situation

You are right. I really hope Nadal will NOT play everything to Federer's backhand. But I can hope as much as I want, he is still going to do that just like he did in RG. And Federer is going to punish him, as the bounce here is extremely low.

 

[DSH]

who is she?

 

[er4claw]

The most confusing thing to me about that AO 2017 final was the 6-1 set that Federer won. How did Nadal lose that third set so lopsidedly?

"I always try my best on every point, no?"

 

[Picmun]

who is she?

 

[rushhr]

the starfish is groping rafa

hope that affects his performance tomorrow enough for fed to squeeze through

 

[Martin J]

Still think the serve is the most important shot on grass, even on this grass the players have been complaining about since the start of the tournament and that's where Federer is superior to Nadal - he can outserve him more often than not. He's also a player who backs up his good serves probably better than anyone on the Tour, so if your return is not on Djokovic's level - better pray he has a day off.

He also feels more confident than Nadal on grass as it's his turf, a place where he feels most comfortable, where he moves better than anyone and which suits his game. Same cannot be said for Nadal, even in a match against Querrey, where he dominated, he almost got broken two times in a row at the end of first set - sign of nerves.

Would love to see if Nadal will employ his offensive strategy he had been successful with against Novak last year. He plays against an opponent who doesn't defend as good as Novak, but who certainly won't let him dictate by mostly relying on his defense and return.

They are both in great form, expecting a very competitive match, but expect Roger to prevail in five.

 

[DSH]

I honestly cant believe people actually expect Nadal to win this one. I guess the poll result is affected by the recent Fedal match at RG 5 weeks ago.
You know what that match showed me? That Fed BH is NOT troubled by the Rafa FH anymore. Fed was driving through the BH so effortlessly, even when the ball bounced high.
Federer loss because Nadal is just the better clay court player, NOT because of the age old tactic of targetting Fed's BH. If the tactic didnt work at RG, it sure as hell isnt going to work at Wimbledon. And Fed is playing the best I have seen him play in a long time. Expect more of a Shanghai '17 type of match rather than the RG'19 match.
As a Nadal fan, I am afraid it's going to be a 4 set win for Fed, if not a straight sets massacre. I really hope I am proved wrong but such is the situation

Fed is the favorite, indeed, but I dont think it would be a massacre, far from that.
It should be at least a match of 4 sets.
Fed 60% and Nadal 40%.

 

[Apun94]

Fed is the favorite, indeed, but I dont think it would be a massacre, far from that.
It should be at least a match of 4 sets.
Fed 60% and Nadal 40%.

How can anyone say that? What has changed since 2017, when Fed absolutely beatdown Nadal? After Fed's weak 2018, he has finally found his '17 BH again. Look at their recent RG match. Fed had no trouble on the BH. How else is Nadal going to trouble Fed now, that too on grass, and that too when Fed is playing lights out?

 

[DSH]

How can anyone say that? What has changed since 2017, when Fed absolutely beatdown Nadal? After Fed's weak 2018, he has finally found his '17 BH again. Look at their recent RG match. Fed had no trouble on the BH. How else is Nadal going to trouble Fed now, that too on grass, and that too when Fed is playing lights out?

The best of 5 sets favors Nadal, always, whatever happens (AO 2017).
Federer, too, can not maintain a high degree of intensity in longer matches.
Let the best player win tomorrow.

 

[Apun94]

The best of 5 sets favors Nadal, always, whatever happens (AO 2017).
Federer, too, can not maintain a high degree of intensity in longer matches.
Let the best player win tomorrow.

Well I hope you are right. Hopefully Federer wont be able to GOAT for more than one set and Rafa ends up winning

 

[StrongRule]

Well I hope you are right. Hopefully Federer wont be able to GOAT for more than one set and Rafa ends up winning

A win is worth nothing unless Nadal wins the final too. And that is an even harder task.

 

[Wilhelm]

Well for his age and the situation. He could lose in a tight 4 set match tomorrow and it would be well for his age and situation again. But I'll still be disappointed.

Let's see if he can make use of the patterns that helped him prevail over Rafa on hard courts.

 

[Apun94]

A win is worth nothing unless Nadal wins the final too. And that is an even harder task.

Lol let's cross that bridge if he gets there

 

[BeatlesFan]

 

[veroniquem]

If Novak Djokovic brutalizes Bautista Agut tomorrow in straight sets on center court, it's likely that both Nadal and Federer will have some of that wind taken out of their sails when they step onto the court following that match and realizing who's going to be waiting for either of them on Sunday. I don't think it would be great for Federer's legacy to lose 3 Wimbledon finals to Novak Djokovic. And it probably won't do Nadal any favours to lose another Grand Slam match to Djokovic.

They would never be who they are if they had that loser mentality. The only thing that matters is to try and win as many slams as possible and the only way to do that is to play the final.
There is no success without failure. If you are that afraid of failing, you will just stay home and do nothing. That's not what they chose. That's why they are champions.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Federer, too, can not maintain a high degree of intensity in longer matches.

What do you base this on? He kept up an insanely high concentration/intensity level last month in his 3:40 minute match against Stan. Fed also kept up the intensity in his losing effort against Tsitsipas at the AO. Can you come up with one match in 2018 where his concentration or intensity wavered in BO5 sets?

 

[BeatlesFan]

They would never be who they are if they had that loser mentality. The only thing that matters is to try and win as many slams as possible and the only way to do that is to play the final.
There is no success without failure. If you are that afraid of failing, you will just stay home and do nothing. That's not what they chose. That's why they are champions.

@veroniquem Great post.

All this talk about either Fed or Rafa being "afraid" of Novak in the final is ridiculous, as you pointed out. Last year Rafa came within 2-3 points of defeating Novak in the semis. Fed played 2014/15 WImbledon finals against Novak and played them closely, especially 2014. Djokovic's draw has been cupcake supreme and he's faced nobody who can remotely challenge him.

While I favor Novak against anyone in the final, people are talking as if it's impossible for him to lose, which is sheer folly.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Here’s the problem for Fed—basically a huge doubt that he can go through Djokodal and probably significant pressure about the idea of losing to either guy in another big Wimbledon match. Either way, he’s likely to lose to one of them and let hear guy’s eat into his legacy more.